BEN BURNS
NFL SUNDAY
RAVENS (-3 or better)
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Reason: I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. Who would have thought that the Browns ever would have been favored at Baltimore? The Ravens, who were -3.5 road favorites at Cleveland in September, were whopping -12.5 favorites the last time they hosted the Browns. The Ravens won that game by double-digits, improving to 4-0 the last four times they hosted the Browns, all four victories coming by double-digits. Despite this season's struggles, the Ravens remain a respectable 3-1 at home, allowing an average of just 15 points per game. Thats roughly half of what the Browns' allow (29.3) per week. Look for another strong game by the defense and for Boller to spark the offense, as the Ravens avenge the earlier loss and improve to 5-0 the last five meetings here.
JETS (+7 or better)
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets Game Time: 11/18/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Jets Reason: I'm taking the points with the NY JETS. The Steelers have been great at home but merely ordinary on the road, going 2-2 SU/ATS. Coming off an important and close (31-28) division win, they may be ripe for a bit of a letdown here. Despite coming up short, the Jets are coming off one of their best games (and a cover) of the season, losing by a field goal vs. the Redskins. They've had a bye since then and I expect them to be fully focused for this afternoon's game.. Note that the Jets are 2-0 ATS when coming off a bye the past two seasons and 12-6 ATS the last 18. Jets have 'covered' 12 of 15 at home when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, we find the Steelers at an ugly 6-18-1 the last 25 times they were listed as non division road favorites. The Steelers are also just 0-3-1 ATS their last four road games played in the month of November. Expect them to have their hands full this afternoon.
PANTHERS (+7 or better)
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. Favre and the Packers have been a great story and have certainly been playing well. This is a difficult "letdown/look-ahead" scheduling situation for them though as they're coming off a big divisional win over the Vikings and have an even bigger divisional game (Lions) on deck. Note that the Packers only loss this season occured after they had faced the Vikings the first time. That dropped the Packers to 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) the last six times they were coming off a divisional win and a money-burning 2-10-2 ATS (5-9 SU) off a division game overall. Interestingly, the Packers are also 0-8 ATS the last eight times they played at home if their previous game finished below the total. Meanwhile, the Panthers have always thrived in the raod underdog role. The Panthers are 20-11-2 ATS as non-division road dogs and a profitable 30-16 ATS when playing a road game after coming off an ATS loss. In fact, tthe Panthers have been at their best on the road, going 4-1 SU/ATS while allowing a mere 15 points per game. Looking back a bit further and we find them at 13-6 SU and 12-6-1 ATS their last 19 road games overall. I expect them to give the Packers all they can handle, earning at least the cover.
UNDER skins/cowboys (44 or better)
Game: Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/18/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Washington to finish UNDER the number. The fact that both teams are coming off back to back high-scoring games has helped caused this afternoon's over/under line to be extremely high. In fact, if we look back at the last 20 meetings in this series we find that NONE have had an over/under line higher than 45 (one was as low as 31) and that the vast majority had over/under lines in the mid to high 30s. Note that the last 13 straight of those meetings ALL produced 47 combined points or less and that those games averaged only 34.4 points. Last year's two meetings finished with 41 at Washington and 37 here at Dallas. Including that low-scoring contest, the UNDER is 9-2 the last 11 times that the Cowboys were listed as a favorite in this series. While the offense gets all the accolades, the Cowboys' defense has been getting better throughout the season and has allowed an average of just 17 points its last three games. The Skins defense wasn't at its best last weekend. However, they're still allowing a respectable 21 points per game for the season, despite the blowout loss vs. the Patriots. Knowing how explosive Dallas can be, I expect Gibbs and staff to have a relatively conservative gameplan in order to avoid another embarrassing blowout. The Cowboys have seen the UNDER go 9-5 the last 14 times (2-0 this season) they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. During the same stretch, the Skins have seen the UNDER go 6-3 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Note that the Skins have also seen the UNDER go 35-17-2 when facing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 80-61-4 when they've been listed as underdogs. That includes a highly profitable 13-3 mark the last 16 times they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower than expected once again with the final combined score falling beneath the inflated number. *NFC Total of the Month
JACKSONVILLE (-4 or better)
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars Reason: I'm laying the points with JACKSONVILLE. Both teams come off important victories. The Jaguars' win was arguably more impressive though, as they went into Tennessee and pounded what had been a red hot Titans squad. Granted, the Chargers did defeat the defending world champions, which is impressive in itself. However, they were rather fortunate to do so and barely won, despite Manning throwing a record number (6) of interceptions. The Chargers' offense certainly didn't fare too well. In fact, they managed just 177 total yards of offense. While I successfully played on the Chargers in their win against the Colts, I also had successfully played against them in their loss at Minnesota the previous week. One of the reasons that I played on the Vikings that week was that I have seen the Chargers struggle when playing these 1:00 EST games for years now. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS when playing an "early" game this season (losses at GB and Min) and even last year's nearly unbeatable team saw both its regular season losses occur when playing at 1:00 pm. Overall, the Chargers are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road. The three losses came by an average of more than 16 points, all three coming by a minimum of a touchdown. Additionally, note that the Chargers are just 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as underdogs when coming off a SU win. Regardless of the time zone and/or situation, winning at Jacksonville is no easy task. Indeed, the Jags have won 14 of their last 20 home games. Note that 13 of those 14 wins came by at least a field goal and that 12 of those wins came by at least six points. Many of those victories came against elite teams too, such as Seattle, Indianapolis, Baltimore (when they were good) Pittsburgh and Dallas. Note that the Jags have cashed at a torrid 10-5-1 clip the last 16 times they were listed as home favorites and are 23-11-1 ATS at home versus non-division foes. While the Chargers are allowing 26.7 points per game on the road, the Jags are allowing a mere 16.5 at home. The home team is 2-0 SU/ATS in this series and I look for another win and cover for the home side this afternoon. *Personal Favorite
Cto's 11*
9-1 this year.combo
havent lost a nfl game in 2 years
Dallas
Marc Lawrence
PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB
11/18/07 - NFL
DISRESPECTED HOME DOGS
PLAY ON any NFL home dog of 6 > points a win percentage of < .125
from Game Four out if they are off a Bye Week.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 18-0
Play ON: New York Jets
MTI
5* newsletter play Jets
Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
4-UNIT PLAY. Take #404 Jacksonville (-3, +100) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
There are two systems at work here that have hit at 75.5 percent over 16 years and 62.4 percent over 24 years. One is to play on a small (-3 or less) divisional home favorite that won by two touchdowns or more the previous week. The other is to fade road teams with a winning record off an upset win. San Diego is set for a letdown after a game they shouldn?t have won against Indianapolis.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #424 Houston (-1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
I think Houston will be ready to roll after their bye week. They welcome back Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson and I think they?ll smother a New Orleans team still suffering a hangover from last week?s debacle. There is a reverse line movement on this game and New Orleans is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #412 New York Jets (+10) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This Jets team should be prepared to matchup systematically if not physically this week against Pittsburgh. Playing against non-divisional road favorites that have won both of their last two games while scoring 30 or more points has hit at a 62.5 percent rate over the past decade. Also, this nearly fits another system for double-digit road favorites after being double-digit home favorites that has hit nearly 80 percent over the past 20 years.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take ?Under? 49.5 New York Giants at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This is another system play that has been very profitable for us over the past two years. Always play ?under? totals of 50 or more, which is where this line opened. But even now that it has dropped we have another system that has hit 68.8 percent over the past five seasons and 66.6 percent over the past 10. I actually think the ?under? is going to have a great weekend, and I personally will be betting that way on every game.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #414 Atlanta (+3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Note: This line is currently -3.0, -125 at most books. I recommend buying the hook or waiting until this line hits 3.5, which it assuredly will.
Divisional home dogs that won as an away dog the previous week have covered at a nearly 65 percent clip over the past 16 years and this situation fits perfectly. Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings and just 1-7 as a road favorite. Atlanta has been undervalued all season and I think they can steal a win here.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #432 Seattle (-5.5) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Thank god: Rex Grossman is back. Which means we?ll have a game full of interceptions, fumbles, and overall bad decisions from the Bears offense. Kick in the fact that Cedric Benson runs like a scared little girl and the Bears won?t reach 17 points. Seattle has some big-time revenge working here after two losses to the Bears last year. I think they get on Chicago early and that this one gets out of hand.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #429 St. Louis (-2.5) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
The Rams never, ever play well in San Francisco. But this 49ers team is awful. St. Louis has some of its pieces back in place and looks like it?s ready to play for pride over the second half of the season. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meeting and I look for Steven Jackson to be the difference in a rather high scoring game.
2-UNIT PLAY. Take Tennessee (+2.5) over Denver (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Vince Young getting points is an automatic play. Denver has covered just three of its last 11 games and we're getting the better team with the points in this one. Tennessee wins outright.
Dr BOB
Best Bet UNDER
**UNDER - INDIANAPOLIS (-14.5) 25 Kansas City 8
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
Brodie Croyle will get this first career start this week in place of ineffective veteran Damon Huard, but things are likle to get worse for the Chiefs? offense. Kansas City?s problems have more to do with the poor play of the offensive line than with the quarterback and Croyle has averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. To make matters worse running back Larry Johnson is expected to miss his second straight game and Priest Holmes (3.0 ypr) has been even worse running behind that bad line than Johnson was (3.5 ypr). Kansas City has been 0.9 yards per play worse than average offensively this season (4.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and I expect them to be worse with Croyle at quarterback and Johnson on the sidelines. Success against a very good Colts? defense is even more remote, as the Colts have yielded just 4.5 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit). The loss of DE Dwight Freeney is probably not going to be that significant given that Freeney has had just 9 sacks total in the last two seasons. The Colts? offense hasn?t been quite as good without injured receiver Marvin Harrison, as Indy?s attack is just 0.3 yppl better than average without Harrison. Kansas City is solid defensively, allowing just 5.3 yppl and 19 points per game (to teams that would average 5.4 yppl and 21 points against an average defense), so don?t expect the Colts to erupt with too many points. My math model favors the Colts by 16 ? points and projects just 33 total points to be scored. I couldn?t believe the total on this game was so high given that Kansas City?s offense is among the worst in the league and the Colts? defense is among the best in the league. The total is high because the Colts have a reputation of playing in high scoring games, but Indy?s offense isn?t as good without Harrison and Kansas City is better than average defensively. Indianapolis has gone Under in 4 consecutive games and a total of 43 ? points just doesn?t make sense. Kansas City?s average total points is just 34.2 points (15.0 on offense and 19.2 allowed) and the Chiefs have faced a schedule that combines to average 42.7 total points per game ? so KC games are 8.5 points lower scoring that average. The Colts average total points is 46.0 points and they?ve faced teams that combine to average 42.7 points, so Indy games are 3.3 points higher scoring than what an average team would total against the same schedule. If Kansas City games are 8.5 points lower scoring than average and Colts games are 3.3 points higher scoring than average then a prediction based purely on compensated points would be a game that was 5.2 points lower scoring than average (-8.5 + 3.3). The league average total points is 42.4 points, so a total of 37 points is projected using the simple compensated points formula. That type of analysis is very simplistic and certainly not as accurate as my math model projections, but it clearly backs up the fact that the total is too high in this game. I?ll go UNDER in the Colts-Chiefs game in a 2-Star Best Bet at 41 points or higher.
2 Star Selection
**HOUSTON (-1.0) 31 New Orleans 24
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
I wrote a lot last week about how overrated the Saints were and they certainly proved my point with a convincing loss to the previously winless Rams as an 11 ? point home favorite. Apparently people still seem to think that the 4-5 Saints are better than the 4- 5 Texans despite Houston having played a tougher schedule. The Saints are better than average offensively, averaging 5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but Houston is even better offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and get star receiver Andre Johnson back this week after missing the last 7 games. Houston?s pass attack averaged 8.3 yppp in the first two games with Johnson healthy against two decent pass defenses (Carolina and Kansas City) and Johnson had 262 receiving yards on the 20 passes thrown to him (which is a better average than even Randy Moss this year). Matt Schaub returns as the starting quarterback, but that really doesn?t make any difference given how well Sage Rosenfels played in his place (Schaub has averaged 7.8 yards per pass play) and I actually lowered Houston?s pass rating with Schaub returning (but then raised it back up about the same amount for the return of Johnson). The Saints? recent win streak (before losing last week) had people thinking the Saints of last season had suddenly returned to form, but last year?s Saints were decent defensively while this year?s Saints have the worst pass defense I have seen in years (7.5 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team) and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average overall (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl). The Saints do have a good run defense, but Houston has a bad rushing attack and will be happy to throw the football 50 times against the Saints? porous secondary. Houston?s defense has problems too with top CB Dunta Robinson out for the season after getting injured in the first quarter against the Raiders. Based on his yards per passes thrown to receivers he?s covering, compared to the other cornerbacks on the team, Robinson is worth about 0.4 yppp and Houston?s defense goes from 0.6 yppl worse than average to 0.8 yppl worse than average without Robinson. That?s still better than the Saints? defense, so Houston is better on offense and on defense and my math model favors Houston by 6 ? points in this game. When my math model differs from the pointspread by 5 points or more the record is 191-132-8 ATS (59%), so the Texans are worth a play here based on the line value. I?ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
2 Star Selection
**DALLAS (-10.5) 32 Washington 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
Dallas hasn?t played a home game since October 21st, so look for the Cowboys to try to impress their home fans with a good effort against the division rival Redskins. Dallas applies to a very good 91-35-4 ATS home after 2 road games situation and the Cowboys also apply to a 74-26-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator, so I expect the Cowboys to be at their best. Being just average should be good enough given that Washington is suffering key injuries along the offensive line and in the defensive secondary. The Redskins lost starting CB Carlos Rogers a couple of weeks ago and star safety Sean Taylor will join Rogers on the sidelines for a few weeks after injuring his knee last week. You may have noticed the Eagles suddenly passing the ball with great success in their second half comeback once Taylor left the game and the Redskins lack of quality depth in the secondary will be tested again this week. Last season the Redskins were great with all their defensive backs playing and they were horrible in 8 games in which one of them was out and last week was the first indication of a Redskins? pass defense going from the league?s best to average or worse (Philly averaged 8.0 yards per pass play and more than that after Taylor left the game). Dallas rivals New England as the league?s most potent offense (6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they?ll move the ball against a banged up Redskins defense pretty easily. Washington?s offense hasn?t been very good since injuries hit the offensive line early in the season and Dallas has become a very good defense since playmaking LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup in week 4 (4.5 yppl allowed in 6 games to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors Dallas by 14 points and the situation is clearly on their side. I?ll take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 3-Stars at -10 or less (-115 odds or better) .
Strong Opinion
Oakland 19 MINNESOTA (-5.0) 18
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
Minnesota will be without star back Adrian Peterson while the Raiders welcome back quarterback Daunte Culpepper back into the huddle after struggling for a few weeks with Josh McCown at quarterback. Culpepper has been much better than McCown this season, as Culpepper has averaged 5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB, while McCown?s 5.1 yppp average came against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Oakland isn?t likely to run well against a great Vikings? run defense (3.0 ypr allowed) but Culpepper will have decent success against an average Minnesota pass defense (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota?s offense will be much worse without Peterson, who had run for 1081 yards at an incredible 6.4 ypr in just 8 ? games. Backup RB Chester Taylor has averaged a solid 4.2 ypr in two seasons with Vikings (5.0 ypr on 61 carries this season) and the Vikings will still be able to run with great success against a soft Raiders? defensive front that has allowed an average of 5.0 ypr to teams that would combine to average only 3.8 ypr against an average team. Peterson will also be missed in the passing game, as his 10.0 yard average on the 22 passes thrown to him is very good and better than the 7/0 ypa that Taylor has averaged on the 19 passes thrown his way. The loss of Peterson is huge, but my math model still favors the Vikings by 7 ? points in this game. Oakland, however, applies to a very strong 69-16-1 ATS road underdog situation that is tough to pass up. I?ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I?d take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
JACKSONVILLE (-3.0) 26 San Diego 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
San Diego is coming off a Sunday night win over the Colts, but I think less of the Chargers now than I did before that upset win. San Diego averaged just 3.5 yards per play against Indy the week after averaging only 3.6 yppl in a loss to Minnesota. The defense played well in that game (4.6 yppl) but the fact that San Diego won by just 2 points despite having two kick returns for touchdowns and registering 6 takeaways is a bit alarming. The Jaguars get quarterback David Garrard back this week after backup Quinn Gray somehow managed to produce a 2-1 record in 3 starts and my math model favors the Jaguars by 3 points with Garrard under center. While there is no line value on either side the situation favors the home team. San Diego applies to a negative 24-60-2 ATS road letdown situation this week while Jacksonville applies to a 121-54-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 58-20-3 ATS when applying to a home team. The situations by themselves is not quite enough to make Jacksonville a Best Bet, as I like to have some line value to go along with the situational edge. I?ll consider Jacksonville a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
NY JETS 19 Pittsburgh (-9.5) 22
01:05 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
The Jets are 1-8 with their only win coming by just 3 points at home against winless Miami, but New York should be better following their bye week as bad teams on a losing streak tend to play with renewed enthusiasm after a week off. In fact, underdogs with a win percentage of less than .125 and on a losing streaks of at least 3 games are now 24-3 ATS following their bye weeks with the 3 spread losses being by 1 ? points, 1 point and 1 point. Miami just won for me in a Best Bet in that same situation last week and the Jets also apply to a 48-10-1 ATS home underdog after a bye angle. I can?t imagine Pittsburgh getting up for this game but my math model favors the Steelers by 11 ? points with Kellen Clemens at quarterback for the Jets. The situation is strongly in favor of New York and I?m willing to give up a bit of line value to side with the Jets. I?ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +8 or more and I?d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points (at -115 odds or less).
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 16 New England (-16.0) 26
05:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
The Patriots come out of their bye week unbeaten and beating teams by an average of 23 points per game, but the line has been over-adjusted for the fact that people are afraid to bet against Brady and company. Buffalo was whipped 7-38 in Foxboro in week 3 but the Bills are a different team now. Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards was making his first start of the season in that game and incumbent J.P. Losman has since returned to the starting lineup and is playing well, averaging 6.4 yards per pass play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB). Buffalo is also very different defensively after shaking up their lineup following that loss to the Patriots. In 6 games with their current defensive lineup the Bills have allowed just 5.0 yards per play and 14.5 points per game, including limiting a very potent Dallas offense to just 5.4 yppl and 25 points in a one point loss as a double-digit home underdog in week 5. Double-digit home underdogs are usually pretty good bets in the NFL and Buffalo applies to a solid 44-20-2 ATS double-digit home underdog situation that also applied in their near upset of Dallas. My math model favors New England by only 9 ? points in this game, but the fact that the Patriots have been out-playing their stats by 6 points per game makes that projection a bit less meaningful. The Patriots aren?t likely to continue to out-play their stats by that many points (in past years they out-played their stats by about 2 points per game due to good coaching and redzone efficiency) and the situation favors the Bills so I?ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +14 ? points or more and I?d take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
Rationale: Rest does wonders for losing teams, especially those that
are not very popular with the public.
Ace Ace / Allen Eastman
JAX -3+102......................$2000.00
TENN m/l +115.................$2000.00
DET under 49-105.............$3500.00
Action
Sea -5.5 -105......................$100.00
SF un 40.5 -105...................$100.00
Wash +10.5 -104.................$100.00
Doc's
3 Unit Play. #108 Take Buffalo +16 over New England (Sunday 8:15 pm NBC) The bye week for New England will hurt them more then it will help them in Week 11 against the Bills. Buffalo has quietly had a fine season, as they are currently 5-4 and it should be 6-3 if not for an embarrassing collapse against Dallas. Remember they also started the season 0-3, so they have won five of their last six games. The Bills now have a solid QB in Losman and he has developed a great connection with WR Evans and expect them to connect twice for big plays. The Bills will put some points on the board and thus New England will not be able to cover this inflated number. New England 31, Buffalo 23.
4 Unit Play. #124 Take New York +9 ? over Pittsburgh (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Jets are limping into this game, but expect the Steelers to have a flat spot after three straight divisional games including a big win last week against Cleveland. This is exactly the type of situation where the Steelers have fallen flat in 2007, as their two road losses have been against Arizona & Denver, two bottom feeder teams. QB Clemens played pretty well in his first start and expect him to play even better in front of the home crowd, as these are people who have been calling for him for some time now. The Jets play their best game of the season but still up come up short; however, we collect via the pointspread.
3 Unit Play. #127 Take New York -2 ? over Detroit (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) An unexpected attractive match-up between two second place teams takes place Sunday afternoon @ Ford Field. The schedule is now starting to get difficult for the Lions with the Giants, Packers, and Cowboys all awaiting their turn. Detroit has had trouble running the football of late and that does bode well for the Giants, who will be able to tee off on the passing game. The Giants have three losses but they have come against the cream of the crop in the NFC, Dallas (2) and Green Bay. Today they will pull away late and cruise to a victory. New York 27, Detroit 17.
VICTOR KINGS NFL O/U PICKS from HIS O/U TIPSHEET
3* Saints @ Texan's Go Over The Total
2* Panthers @ Packers Go Under The Total
2* Oakland @ Minnesota Go Under The Total
2* Miami Dolphins @ Philly Eagles Go Under The Total
Jim Rich~Fade away Boys
6~8 last week
62~79 for the year in totals
Over Lions 49 1/2
sd over 40 1/2
pitt under 40 1/2
indy over 44
dr jacks dolphs under 40
rams under 40 1/2
boys over 47
da bears under 37 1/2
panthers over 37 1/2
titans under 38
The hooks Plays (fade away hes terrible)
The Hook Suxs Big time...20~33~4
Houston -1
Brownies - 2 1/2
Tampa-3
denver over 38
sd +3
Tout-House
NFL: TAKE NEW ORLEANS / HOUSTON OVER 47.5
This OVER play on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (New Orleans) after going over the total by 28 or more points in their last three games after the first month of the season is 33-11(75%) the past 5 seasons. The Saints are 9-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 6-0 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. Both teams have been susceptible through the air. We'll take the OVER here as we expect both teams to hoist it up, putting a lot of points on the board.
NFL: TAKE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -3
After a big win over the defending Super Bowl champion Colts, heading out on the road this week spells letdown for the Chargers. The Chargers have been terrible on the road this season where they are just 1-3 straight up and ATS. The Jags are 16-5 ATS off a road win against a division rival since 1992 and 21-8 ATS in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992. Jacksonville's stingy defense, which is allowing just 16.5ppg at home this season gives us another edge. San Diego's defense is allowing 26.7ppg on the road this season. Lay the points here as the Chargers continue to have problems away from Cali.
Over minny 35
EROCKMONEY 44-25 season 15-6 last 3 weeks 14-6 o/u's
NFL:
(1.) Green Bay (-10) v. Carolina
The Pack are rolling and the Panthers are fading fast. Over the years the Packers always seem to play the Panthers tough and in most cases the Panthers has a superior team. The Pack will shut down the Panthers offense and Favre will continue his strong play torching the Panthers once dominant defense.
Pick: Packers by 14
(2.) San Diego (+3) at Jacksonville
I have a feeling the Chargers are really going to turn it on during the second half of the season. Rivers has played terrible and doesn't look much like an NFL QB. However, the Chargers have a lot of weapons and enough definsive talent to stump the Jags. The Jags are up and down, so after an up week last week versus The Titans they should be down this week. This one will be tight throughout, but take the Chargers and the points.
Pick: Chargers by 3
(3.) New Orleans (Pk) at Houston
New Orleans needs this game after their home loss to the Rams last week. I am not impressed with this Texan team and am quite surprised by this line. The Texans do get star WR Johnson back after a long layoff which should help their sputtering offense. However, Bush will look to show up the Texans for passing on him in the draft. Bush and Brees lead the Saints to a big win.
Pick: Saints by 18
(Blowout of the Week) St. Louis (-2.5) at San Francisco
The Rams might get on a roll after a terrible start. The Niners are simply terrible and Nolan should be canned. The Rams offense should start clicking with Jackson back and a healthy Bulger leading the team. The Rams are a frustrated team which makes them dangerous down the stretch. The Niners will feel their frustration this week.
Pick: Rams by 14
(Upset Special) Chicago (+6) at Seattle
The Seahawks aren't very good and the Bears may surprise in this one. Grossman is back at the helm and may have good game in him in an attempt to regain his job. The one-dimensional Seahawks will stuggle to put points on the board against the Bears defense. This one should be close and could be a shocker.
Pick: Bears by 3
(Under 47.5) New Orleans at Houston
New Orleans will jump on Houston early and build a big lead, which will lead to second half lag as the points slow once the game is out of hand. The Saints defense will play better after last weeks poor performance.
(Under 40.5) Pittsburgh at NY Jets
I think the Jets will show up in this one and the Steelers may get off to a slow start after last weeks big comeback. The Jets are coming off a bye week and are at home and the Steelers can't keep up thier high flying play.
Wunderdog Comp
Game: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sunday 11/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 35.5 -110
Atlanta started the season 1-6 and two weeks later are back within striking distance in the Division. It's hard to believe, but is a telling-tale of a division lacking a good team. Much of the problem with the NFC South stems from injuries and lack of competent offenses that are good enough to sustain drives. The losing teams on Tampa Bay's schedule have seen all the games played in the 20s while Atlanta has managed to top the 20 mark themselves just once. So, nine games played with seven UNDERs. Tampa Bay has played six of nine UNDER, in thanks to an underachieving offense. They are 15th in yards gained, but ranked 21st (six spots lower) in points scored. They have an over-achieving defense that is ranked 6th in yards but two spots better in points allowed at #4. Atlanta's offense has also underachieved. They are 27th in yards gained, but are three spots worse (#30) in points scored. They are the same on defense, 16th in yards but two spots lower in points allowed at #14. The bottom line is that in four possible catergories, the DNA of these teams all make the UNDER more likely. The scoreboard has refelected that so far with 13 of 18 games going UNDER between them. Atlanta won last week as an underdog and in weeks 10-13 of the NFL season, teams off an upset road win are 78-39 (67%) to the UNDER in their next game. The past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 13-4 UNDER after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points and 14-5 UNDER following a win. Dating back to last season, Atlanta is 18-6 UNDER in all home games including 8-1 UNDER vs. division foes! Barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, we like this one to stay in the twenties or low thirties.
Teddy Covers
NFL Jacksonville -3 (404)
NFL 20* Big Ticket: Arizona +3 (415)
NFL Miami +10 (417)
NFL Houston Over 47.5 -110 (424)
NFL St. Louis -3 (429)
NFL SUNDAY
RAVENS (-3 or better)
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Reason: I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. Who would have thought that the Browns ever would have been favored at Baltimore? The Ravens, who were -3.5 road favorites at Cleveland in September, were whopping -12.5 favorites the last time they hosted the Browns. The Ravens won that game by double-digits, improving to 4-0 the last four times they hosted the Browns, all four victories coming by double-digits. Despite this season's struggles, the Ravens remain a respectable 3-1 at home, allowing an average of just 15 points per game. Thats roughly half of what the Browns' allow (29.3) per week. Look for another strong game by the defense and for Boller to spark the offense, as the Ravens avenge the earlier loss and improve to 5-0 the last five meetings here.
JETS (+7 or better)
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets Game Time: 11/18/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Jets Reason: I'm taking the points with the NY JETS. The Steelers have been great at home but merely ordinary on the road, going 2-2 SU/ATS. Coming off an important and close (31-28) division win, they may be ripe for a bit of a letdown here. Despite coming up short, the Jets are coming off one of their best games (and a cover) of the season, losing by a field goal vs. the Redskins. They've had a bye since then and I expect them to be fully focused for this afternoon's game.. Note that the Jets are 2-0 ATS when coming off a bye the past two seasons and 12-6 ATS the last 18. Jets have 'covered' 12 of 15 at home when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, we find the Steelers at an ugly 6-18-1 the last 25 times they were listed as non division road favorites. The Steelers are also just 0-3-1 ATS their last four road games played in the month of November. Expect them to have their hands full this afternoon.
PANTHERS (+7 or better)
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. Favre and the Packers have been a great story and have certainly been playing well. This is a difficult "letdown/look-ahead" scheduling situation for them though as they're coming off a big divisional win over the Vikings and have an even bigger divisional game (Lions) on deck. Note that the Packers only loss this season occured after they had faced the Vikings the first time. That dropped the Packers to 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) the last six times they were coming off a divisional win and a money-burning 2-10-2 ATS (5-9 SU) off a division game overall. Interestingly, the Packers are also 0-8 ATS the last eight times they played at home if their previous game finished below the total. Meanwhile, the Panthers have always thrived in the raod underdog role. The Panthers are 20-11-2 ATS as non-division road dogs and a profitable 30-16 ATS when playing a road game after coming off an ATS loss. In fact, tthe Panthers have been at their best on the road, going 4-1 SU/ATS while allowing a mere 15 points per game. Looking back a bit further and we find them at 13-6 SU and 12-6-1 ATS their last 19 road games overall. I expect them to give the Packers all they can handle, earning at least the cover.
UNDER skins/cowboys (44 or better)
Game: Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/18/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Washington to finish UNDER the number. The fact that both teams are coming off back to back high-scoring games has helped caused this afternoon's over/under line to be extremely high. In fact, if we look back at the last 20 meetings in this series we find that NONE have had an over/under line higher than 45 (one was as low as 31) and that the vast majority had over/under lines in the mid to high 30s. Note that the last 13 straight of those meetings ALL produced 47 combined points or less and that those games averaged only 34.4 points. Last year's two meetings finished with 41 at Washington and 37 here at Dallas. Including that low-scoring contest, the UNDER is 9-2 the last 11 times that the Cowboys were listed as a favorite in this series. While the offense gets all the accolades, the Cowboys' defense has been getting better throughout the season and has allowed an average of just 17 points its last three games. The Skins defense wasn't at its best last weekend. However, they're still allowing a respectable 21 points per game for the season, despite the blowout loss vs. the Patriots. Knowing how explosive Dallas can be, I expect Gibbs and staff to have a relatively conservative gameplan in order to avoid another embarrassing blowout. The Cowboys have seen the UNDER go 9-5 the last 14 times (2-0 this season) they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. During the same stretch, the Skins have seen the UNDER go 6-3 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Note that the Skins have also seen the UNDER go 35-17-2 when facing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 80-61-4 when they've been listed as underdogs. That includes a highly profitable 13-3 mark the last 16 times they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower than expected once again with the final combined score falling beneath the inflated number. *NFC Total of the Month
JACKSONVILLE (-4 or better)
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars Reason: I'm laying the points with JACKSONVILLE. Both teams come off important victories. The Jaguars' win was arguably more impressive though, as they went into Tennessee and pounded what had been a red hot Titans squad. Granted, the Chargers did defeat the defending world champions, which is impressive in itself. However, they were rather fortunate to do so and barely won, despite Manning throwing a record number (6) of interceptions. The Chargers' offense certainly didn't fare too well. In fact, they managed just 177 total yards of offense. While I successfully played on the Chargers in their win against the Colts, I also had successfully played against them in their loss at Minnesota the previous week. One of the reasons that I played on the Vikings that week was that I have seen the Chargers struggle when playing these 1:00 EST games for years now. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS when playing an "early" game this season (losses at GB and Min) and even last year's nearly unbeatable team saw both its regular season losses occur when playing at 1:00 pm. Overall, the Chargers are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road. The three losses came by an average of more than 16 points, all three coming by a minimum of a touchdown. Additionally, note that the Chargers are just 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as underdogs when coming off a SU win. Regardless of the time zone and/or situation, winning at Jacksonville is no easy task. Indeed, the Jags have won 14 of their last 20 home games. Note that 13 of those 14 wins came by at least a field goal and that 12 of those wins came by at least six points. Many of those victories came against elite teams too, such as Seattle, Indianapolis, Baltimore (when they were good) Pittsburgh and Dallas. Note that the Jags have cashed at a torrid 10-5-1 clip the last 16 times they were listed as home favorites and are 23-11-1 ATS at home versus non-division foes. While the Chargers are allowing 26.7 points per game on the road, the Jags are allowing a mere 16.5 at home. The home team is 2-0 SU/ATS in this series and I look for another win and cover for the home side this afternoon. *Personal Favorite
Cto's 11*
9-1 this year.combo
havent lost a nfl game in 2 years
Dallas
Marc Lawrence
PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB
11/18/07 - NFL
DISRESPECTED HOME DOGS
PLAY ON any NFL home dog of 6 > points a win percentage of < .125
from Game Four out if they are off a Bye Week.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 18-0
Play ON: New York Jets
MTI
5* newsletter play Jets
Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
4-UNIT PLAY. Take #404 Jacksonville (-3, +100) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
There are two systems at work here that have hit at 75.5 percent over 16 years and 62.4 percent over 24 years. One is to play on a small (-3 or less) divisional home favorite that won by two touchdowns or more the previous week. The other is to fade road teams with a winning record off an upset win. San Diego is set for a letdown after a game they shouldn?t have won against Indianapolis.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #424 Houston (-1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
I think Houston will be ready to roll after their bye week. They welcome back Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson and I think they?ll smother a New Orleans team still suffering a hangover from last week?s debacle. There is a reverse line movement on this game and New Orleans is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #412 New York Jets (+10) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This Jets team should be prepared to matchup systematically if not physically this week against Pittsburgh. Playing against non-divisional road favorites that have won both of their last two games while scoring 30 or more points has hit at a 62.5 percent rate over the past decade. Also, this nearly fits another system for double-digit road favorites after being double-digit home favorites that has hit nearly 80 percent over the past 20 years.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take ?Under? 49.5 New York Giants at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This is another system play that has been very profitable for us over the past two years. Always play ?under? totals of 50 or more, which is where this line opened. But even now that it has dropped we have another system that has hit 68.8 percent over the past five seasons and 66.6 percent over the past 10. I actually think the ?under? is going to have a great weekend, and I personally will be betting that way on every game.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #414 Atlanta (+3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Note: This line is currently -3.0, -125 at most books. I recommend buying the hook or waiting until this line hits 3.5, which it assuredly will.
Divisional home dogs that won as an away dog the previous week have covered at a nearly 65 percent clip over the past 16 years and this situation fits perfectly. Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings and just 1-7 as a road favorite. Atlanta has been undervalued all season and I think they can steal a win here.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #432 Seattle (-5.5) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Thank god: Rex Grossman is back. Which means we?ll have a game full of interceptions, fumbles, and overall bad decisions from the Bears offense. Kick in the fact that Cedric Benson runs like a scared little girl and the Bears won?t reach 17 points. Seattle has some big-time revenge working here after two losses to the Bears last year. I think they get on Chicago early and that this one gets out of hand.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #429 St. Louis (-2.5) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
The Rams never, ever play well in San Francisco. But this 49ers team is awful. St. Louis has some of its pieces back in place and looks like it?s ready to play for pride over the second half of the season. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meeting and I look for Steven Jackson to be the difference in a rather high scoring game.
2-UNIT PLAY. Take Tennessee (+2.5) over Denver (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Vince Young getting points is an automatic play. Denver has covered just three of its last 11 games and we're getting the better team with the points in this one. Tennessee wins outright.
Dr BOB
Best Bet UNDER
**UNDER - INDIANAPOLIS (-14.5) 25 Kansas City 8
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
Brodie Croyle will get this first career start this week in place of ineffective veteran Damon Huard, but things are likle to get worse for the Chiefs? offense. Kansas City?s problems have more to do with the poor play of the offensive line than with the quarterback and Croyle has averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. To make matters worse running back Larry Johnson is expected to miss his second straight game and Priest Holmes (3.0 ypr) has been even worse running behind that bad line than Johnson was (3.5 ypr). Kansas City has been 0.9 yards per play worse than average offensively this season (4.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and I expect them to be worse with Croyle at quarterback and Johnson on the sidelines. Success against a very good Colts? defense is even more remote, as the Colts have yielded just 4.5 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit). The loss of DE Dwight Freeney is probably not going to be that significant given that Freeney has had just 9 sacks total in the last two seasons. The Colts? offense hasn?t been quite as good without injured receiver Marvin Harrison, as Indy?s attack is just 0.3 yppl better than average without Harrison. Kansas City is solid defensively, allowing just 5.3 yppl and 19 points per game (to teams that would average 5.4 yppl and 21 points against an average defense), so don?t expect the Colts to erupt with too many points. My math model favors the Colts by 16 ? points and projects just 33 total points to be scored. I couldn?t believe the total on this game was so high given that Kansas City?s offense is among the worst in the league and the Colts? defense is among the best in the league. The total is high because the Colts have a reputation of playing in high scoring games, but Indy?s offense isn?t as good without Harrison and Kansas City is better than average defensively. Indianapolis has gone Under in 4 consecutive games and a total of 43 ? points just doesn?t make sense. Kansas City?s average total points is just 34.2 points (15.0 on offense and 19.2 allowed) and the Chiefs have faced a schedule that combines to average 42.7 total points per game ? so KC games are 8.5 points lower scoring that average. The Colts average total points is 46.0 points and they?ve faced teams that combine to average 42.7 points, so Indy games are 3.3 points higher scoring than what an average team would total against the same schedule. If Kansas City games are 8.5 points lower scoring than average and Colts games are 3.3 points higher scoring than average then a prediction based purely on compensated points would be a game that was 5.2 points lower scoring than average (-8.5 + 3.3). The league average total points is 42.4 points, so a total of 37 points is projected using the simple compensated points formula. That type of analysis is very simplistic and certainly not as accurate as my math model projections, but it clearly backs up the fact that the total is too high in this game. I?ll go UNDER in the Colts-Chiefs game in a 2-Star Best Bet at 41 points or higher.
2 Star Selection
**HOUSTON (-1.0) 31 New Orleans 24
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
I wrote a lot last week about how overrated the Saints were and they certainly proved my point with a convincing loss to the previously winless Rams as an 11 ? point home favorite. Apparently people still seem to think that the 4-5 Saints are better than the 4- 5 Texans despite Houston having played a tougher schedule. The Saints are better than average offensively, averaging 5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but Houston is even better offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and get star receiver Andre Johnson back this week after missing the last 7 games. Houston?s pass attack averaged 8.3 yppp in the first two games with Johnson healthy against two decent pass defenses (Carolina and Kansas City) and Johnson had 262 receiving yards on the 20 passes thrown to him (which is a better average than even Randy Moss this year). Matt Schaub returns as the starting quarterback, but that really doesn?t make any difference given how well Sage Rosenfels played in his place (Schaub has averaged 7.8 yards per pass play) and I actually lowered Houston?s pass rating with Schaub returning (but then raised it back up about the same amount for the return of Johnson). The Saints? recent win streak (before losing last week) had people thinking the Saints of last season had suddenly returned to form, but last year?s Saints were decent defensively while this year?s Saints have the worst pass defense I have seen in years (7.5 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team) and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average overall (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl). The Saints do have a good run defense, but Houston has a bad rushing attack and will be happy to throw the football 50 times against the Saints? porous secondary. Houston?s defense has problems too with top CB Dunta Robinson out for the season after getting injured in the first quarter against the Raiders. Based on his yards per passes thrown to receivers he?s covering, compared to the other cornerbacks on the team, Robinson is worth about 0.4 yppp and Houston?s defense goes from 0.6 yppl worse than average to 0.8 yppl worse than average without Robinson. That?s still better than the Saints? defense, so Houston is better on offense and on defense and my math model favors Houston by 6 ? points in this game. When my math model differs from the pointspread by 5 points or more the record is 191-132-8 ATS (59%), so the Texans are worth a play here based on the line value. I?ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
2 Star Selection
**DALLAS (-10.5) 32 Washington 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
Dallas hasn?t played a home game since October 21st, so look for the Cowboys to try to impress their home fans with a good effort against the division rival Redskins. Dallas applies to a very good 91-35-4 ATS home after 2 road games situation and the Cowboys also apply to a 74-26-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator, so I expect the Cowboys to be at their best. Being just average should be good enough given that Washington is suffering key injuries along the offensive line and in the defensive secondary. The Redskins lost starting CB Carlos Rogers a couple of weeks ago and star safety Sean Taylor will join Rogers on the sidelines for a few weeks after injuring his knee last week. You may have noticed the Eagles suddenly passing the ball with great success in their second half comeback once Taylor left the game and the Redskins lack of quality depth in the secondary will be tested again this week. Last season the Redskins were great with all their defensive backs playing and they were horrible in 8 games in which one of them was out and last week was the first indication of a Redskins? pass defense going from the league?s best to average or worse (Philly averaged 8.0 yards per pass play and more than that after Taylor left the game). Dallas rivals New England as the league?s most potent offense (6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they?ll move the ball against a banged up Redskins defense pretty easily. Washington?s offense hasn?t been very good since injuries hit the offensive line early in the season and Dallas has become a very good defense since playmaking LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup in week 4 (4.5 yppl allowed in 6 games to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors Dallas by 14 points and the situation is clearly on their side. I?ll take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 3-Stars at -10 or less (-115 odds or better) .
Strong Opinion
Oakland 19 MINNESOTA (-5.0) 18
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
Minnesota will be without star back Adrian Peterson while the Raiders welcome back quarterback Daunte Culpepper back into the huddle after struggling for a few weeks with Josh McCown at quarterback. Culpepper has been much better than McCown this season, as Culpepper has averaged 5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB, while McCown?s 5.1 yppp average came against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Oakland isn?t likely to run well against a great Vikings? run defense (3.0 ypr allowed) but Culpepper will have decent success against an average Minnesota pass defense (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota?s offense will be much worse without Peterson, who had run for 1081 yards at an incredible 6.4 ypr in just 8 ? games. Backup RB Chester Taylor has averaged a solid 4.2 ypr in two seasons with Vikings (5.0 ypr on 61 carries this season) and the Vikings will still be able to run with great success against a soft Raiders? defensive front that has allowed an average of 5.0 ypr to teams that would combine to average only 3.8 ypr against an average team. Peterson will also be missed in the passing game, as his 10.0 yard average on the 22 passes thrown to him is very good and better than the 7/0 ypa that Taylor has averaged on the 19 passes thrown his way. The loss of Peterson is huge, but my math model still favors the Vikings by 7 ? points in this game. Oakland, however, applies to a very strong 69-16-1 ATS road underdog situation that is tough to pass up. I?ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I?d take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
JACKSONVILLE (-3.0) 26 San Diego 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
San Diego is coming off a Sunday night win over the Colts, but I think less of the Chargers now than I did before that upset win. San Diego averaged just 3.5 yards per play against Indy the week after averaging only 3.6 yppl in a loss to Minnesota. The defense played well in that game (4.6 yppl) but the fact that San Diego won by just 2 points despite having two kick returns for touchdowns and registering 6 takeaways is a bit alarming. The Jaguars get quarterback David Garrard back this week after backup Quinn Gray somehow managed to produce a 2-1 record in 3 starts and my math model favors the Jaguars by 3 points with Garrard under center. While there is no line value on either side the situation favors the home team. San Diego applies to a negative 24-60-2 ATS road letdown situation this week while Jacksonville applies to a 121-54-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 58-20-3 ATS when applying to a home team. The situations by themselves is not quite enough to make Jacksonville a Best Bet, as I like to have some line value to go along with the situational edge. I?ll consider Jacksonville a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
NY JETS 19 Pittsburgh (-9.5) 22
01:05 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
The Jets are 1-8 with their only win coming by just 3 points at home against winless Miami, but New York should be better following their bye week as bad teams on a losing streak tend to play with renewed enthusiasm after a week off. In fact, underdogs with a win percentage of less than .125 and on a losing streaks of at least 3 games are now 24-3 ATS following their bye weeks with the 3 spread losses being by 1 ? points, 1 point and 1 point. Miami just won for me in a Best Bet in that same situation last week and the Jets also apply to a 48-10-1 ATS home underdog after a bye angle. I can?t imagine Pittsburgh getting up for this game but my math model favors the Steelers by 11 ? points with Kellen Clemens at quarterback for the Jets. The situation is strongly in favor of New York and I?m willing to give up a bit of line value to side with the Jets. I?ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +8 or more and I?d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points (at -115 odds or less).
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 16 New England (-16.0) 26
05:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07
The Patriots come out of their bye week unbeaten and beating teams by an average of 23 points per game, but the line has been over-adjusted for the fact that people are afraid to bet against Brady and company. Buffalo was whipped 7-38 in Foxboro in week 3 but the Bills are a different team now. Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards was making his first start of the season in that game and incumbent J.P. Losman has since returned to the starting lineup and is playing well, averaging 6.4 yards per pass play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB). Buffalo is also very different defensively after shaking up their lineup following that loss to the Patriots. In 6 games with their current defensive lineup the Bills have allowed just 5.0 yards per play and 14.5 points per game, including limiting a very potent Dallas offense to just 5.4 yppl and 25 points in a one point loss as a double-digit home underdog in week 5. Double-digit home underdogs are usually pretty good bets in the NFL and Buffalo applies to a solid 44-20-2 ATS double-digit home underdog situation that also applied in their near upset of Dallas. My math model favors New England by only 9 ? points in this game, but the fact that the Patriots have been out-playing their stats by 6 points per game makes that projection a bit less meaningful. The Patriots aren?t likely to continue to out-play their stats by that many points (in past years they out-played their stats by about 2 points per game due to good coaching and redzone efficiency) and the situation favors the Bills so I?ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +14 ? points or more and I?d take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
Rationale: Rest does wonders for losing teams, especially those that
are not very popular with the public.
Ace Ace / Allen Eastman
JAX -3+102......................$2000.00
TENN m/l +115.................$2000.00
DET under 49-105.............$3500.00
Action
Sea -5.5 -105......................$100.00
SF un 40.5 -105...................$100.00
Wash +10.5 -104.................$100.00
Doc's
3 Unit Play. #108 Take Buffalo +16 over New England (Sunday 8:15 pm NBC) The bye week for New England will hurt them more then it will help them in Week 11 against the Bills. Buffalo has quietly had a fine season, as they are currently 5-4 and it should be 6-3 if not for an embarrassing collapse against Dallas. Remember they also started the season 0-3, so they have won five of their last six games. The Bills now have a solid QB in Losman and he has developed a great connection with WR Evans and expect them to connect twice for big plays. The Bills will put some points on the board and thus New England will not be able to cover this inflated number. New England 31, Buffalo 23.
4 Unit Play. #124 Take New York +9 ? over Pittsburgh (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Jets are limping into this game, but expect the Steelers to have a flat spot after three straight divisional games including a big win last week against Cleveland. This is exactly the type of situation where the Steelers have fallen flat in 2007, as their two road losses have been against Arizona & Denver, two bottom feeder teams. QB Clemens played pretty well in his first start and expect him to play even better in front of the home crowd, as these are people who have been calling for him for some time now. The Jets play their best game of the season but still up come up short; however, we collect via the pointspread.
3 Unit Play. #127 Take New York -2 ? over Detroit (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) An unexpected attractive match-up between two second place teams takes place Sunday afternoon @ Ford Field. The schedule is now starting to get difficult for the Lions with the Giants, Packers, and Cowboys all awaiting their turn. Detroit has had trouble running the football of late and that does bode well for the Giants, who will be able to tee off on the passing game. The Giants have three losses but they have come against the cream of the crop in the NFC, Dallas (2) and Green Bay. Today they will pull away late and cruise to a victory. New York 27, Detroit 17.
VICTOR KINGS NFL O/U PICKS from HIS O/U TIPSHEET
3* Saints @ Texan's Go Over The Total
2* Panthers @ Packers Go Under The Total
2* Oakland @ Minnesota Go Under The Total
2* Miami Dolphins @ Philly Eagles Go Under The Total
Jim Rich~Fade away Boys
6~8 last week
62~79 for the year in totals
Over Lions 49 1/2
sd over 40 1/2
pitt under 40 1/2
indy over 44
dr jacks dolphs under 40
rams under 40 1/2
boys over 47
da bears under 37 1/2
panthers over 37 1/2
titans under 38
The hooks Plays (fade away hes terrible)
The Hook Suxs Big time...20~33~4
Houston -1
Brownies - 2 1/2
Tampa-3
denver over 38
sd +3
Tout-House
NFL: TAKE NEW ORLEANS / HOUSTON OVER 47.5
This OVER play on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (New Orleans) after going over the total by 28 or more points in their last three games after the first month of the season is 33-11(75%) the past 5 seasons. The Saints are 9-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 6-0 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. Both teams have been susceptible through the air. We'll take the OVER here as we expect both teams to hoist it up, putting a lot of points on the board.
NFL: TAKE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -3
After a big win over the defending Super Bowl champion Colts, heading out on the road this week spells letdown for the Chargers. The Chargers have been terrible on the road this season where they are just 1-3 straight up and ATS. The Jags are 16-5 ATS off a road win against a division rival since 1992 and 21-8 ATS in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992. Jacksonville's stingy defense, which is allowing just 16.5ppg at home this season gives us another edge. San Diego's defense is allowing 26.7ppg on the road this season. Lay the points here as the Chargers continue to have problems away from Cali.
Over minny 35
EROCKMONEY 44-25 season 15-6 last 3 weeks 14-6 o/u's
NFL:
(1.) Green Bay (-10) v. Carolina
The Pack are rolling and the Panthers are fading fast. Over the years the Packers always seem to play the Panthers tough and in most cases the Panthers has a superior team. The Pack will shut down the Panthers offense and Favre will continue his strong play torching the Panthers once dominant defense.
Pick: Packers by 14
(2.) San Diego (+3) at Jacksonville
I have a feeling the Chargers are really going to turn it on during the second half of the season. Rivers has played terrible and doesn't look much like an NFL QB. However, the Chargers have a lot of weapons and enough definsive talent to stump the Jags. The Jags are up and down, so after an up week last week versus The Titans they should be down this week. This one will be tight throughout, but take the Chargers and the points.
Pick: Chargers by 3
(3.) New Orleans (Pk) at Houston
New Orleans needs this game after their home loss to the Rams last week. I am not impressed with this Texan team and am quite surprised by this line. The Texans do get star WR Johnson back after a long layoff which should help their sputtering offense. However, Bush will look to show up the Texans for passing on him in the draft. Bush and Brees lead the Saints to a big win.
Pick: Saints by 18
(Blowout of the Week) St. Louis (-2.5) at San Francisco
The Rams might get on a roll after a terrible start. The Niners are simply terrible and Nolan should be canned. The Rams offense should start clicking with Jackson back and a healthy Bulger leading the team. The Rams are a frustrated team which makes them dangerous down the stretch. The Niners will feel their frustration this week.
Pick: Rams by 14
(Upset Special) Chicago (+6) at Seattle
The Seahawks aren't very good and the Bears may surprise in this one. Grossman is back at the helm and may have good game in him in an attempt to regain his job. The one-dimensional Seahawks will stuggle to put points on the board against the Bears defense. This one should be close and could be a shocker.
Pick: Bears by 3
(Under 47.5) New Orleans at Houston
New Orleans will jump on Houston early and build a big lead, which will lead to second half lag as the points slow once the game is out of hand. The Saints defense will play better after last weeks poor performance.
(Under 40.5) Pittsburgh at NY Jets
I think the Jets will show up in this one and the Steelers may get off to a slow start after last weeks big comeback. The Jets are coming off a bye week and are at home and the Steelers can't keep up thier high flying play.
Wunderdog Comp
Game: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sunday 11/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 35.5 -110
Atlanta started the season 1-6 and two weeks later are back within striking distance in the Division. It's hard to believe, but is a telling-tale of a division lacking a good team. Much of the problem with the NFC South stems from injuries and lack of competent offenses that are good enough to sustain drives. The losing teams on Tampa Bay's schedule have seen all the games played in the 20s while Atlanta has managed to top the 20 mark themselves just once. So, nine games played with seven UNDERs. Tampa Bay has played six of nine UNDER, in thanks to an underachieving offense. They are 15th in yards gained, but ranked 21st (six spots lower) in points scored. They have an over-achieving defense that is ranked 6th in yards but two spots better in points allowed at #4. Atlanta's offense has also underachieved. They are 27th in yards gained, but are three spots worse (#30) in points scored. They are the same on defense, 16th in yards but two spots lower in points allowed at #14. The bottom line is that in four possible catergories, the DNA of these teams all make the UNDER more likely. The scoreboard has refelected that so far with 13 of 18 games going UNDER between them. Atlanta won last week as an underdog and in weeks 10-13 of the NFL season, teams off an upset road win are 78-39 (67%) to the UNDER in their next game. The past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 13-4 UNDER after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points and 14-5 UNDER following a win. Dating back to last season, Atlanta is 18-6 UNDER in all home games including 8-1 UNDER vs. division foes! Barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, we like this one to stay in the twenties or low thirties.
Teddy Covers
NFL Jacksonville -3 (404)
NFL 20* Big Ticket: Arizona +3 (415)
NFL Miami +10 (417)
NFL Houston Over 47.5 -110 (424)
NFL St. Louis -3 (429)
