Finding the Perfect MMA Underdog

Here’s how to find the perfect MMA underdog.

Key Points

– Betting on an MMA underdog does not mean betting foolishly.

– Research is crucial to winning more MMA bets.

Finding the Perfect MMA Underdog

One of the best ways to win at fight betting is to find value on a strong underdog. Favorites, by definition, win the majority of the time, but the payouts on their moneylines frequently overstate the likelihood that they will actually win. 

Bettors should never wager haphazardly, but with some research finding a valuable MMA underdog is definitely worth it. It may be worth learning how to use risk-free bets here. The trick, of course, is in figuring out how to find those underdogs.

The Golden Dog

According to estimates, underdogs in MMA win about 35% of the time. That means that simply betting on underdogs a majority of the time can pay off even if you lose a majority of the bets. 

Remember, most MMA underdogs will be given plus-money odds. If you bet $100 on two favorites at -150 and -175 and then wagered on one underdog at +350, you would come out $150 ahead.

So, how do find these underrated fighters?

Examine a Fighter’s Career 

This is an obvious one, but too many bettors overlook it. Look at a fighter’s record and examine the wins and the losses. You should look for streaks, both winning and losing.

Look at how long it took to win a fight and how many times they fight in a typical year. Then, examine the most recent fights. If they have a loss, was it a close loss? 

Keep all of these things in mind when doing your research on MMA fighters. A great website to find this kind of information is Sherdog. 


Look at In-Fight Data

You must look over a fighter’s stats to learn more about his or her tendencies. Similar to other sports, MMA now has a wealth of statistics that can be used to understand a fighter’s strategy. 

Fight Metric LLC, which offers different in-fight averages like significant strikes landed, is one of the best websites to find these advanced stats. Fight Metric breaks down each fighter’s individual fights and gives the bettor an overview of their most recent performances in addition to providing information on a fighter’s overall skill set. This will give you an idea of a fighter’s offensive and defensive tendencies. 

When analyzing an underdog, key metrics like takedown attempts and success rates are crucial analytics. You will be on your way to finding profitable bets more frequently if you develop the ability to spot matchups that favor the underdog’s fighting style. 

The Age of an MMA Underdog

A lot of information has been gathered about how a fighter’s age can affect how a fight turns out. Studies have shown that a fighter typically reaches their peak in their late twenties to early thirties. 

As fighters get older, their ability to take a punch also starts to decline along with their speed, power, and agility. According to FightNomics, fighters between the ages of 36 and 38 are knocked out nearly twice as often as those between the ages of 22 and 25. Age-related changes in basic physiology that reduce the brain’s resilience and years of cumulative head and jaw injury are the main causes of the rise in knockout rates for older fighters. 

This is why placing a wager on an experienced fighter with name value often leads to dealing with betting losing streaks. In the latter stages of their careers, fighters like Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell became much more vulnerable to knockouts. 

Stance Is Important

A lot of bettors put too much weight into whether a fighter is right- or left-handed. The majority of UFC competitors adopt an orthodox, or right-handed, stance. However, a fighter may gain an advantage by fighting as a southpaw. Southpaws are more successful, winning 53% of their fights, according to 

Being fluid, however, has a greater benefit. Those who can switch from a southpaw to an orthodox stance successfully prevail at a 57% rate. This tactic is becoming much more common in MMA. That means it is something you should research before placing a bet. 

MMA Underdog Odds Are Usually Accurate

MMA may not be a sport in which the oddsmakers compete, but they still do extensive research before coming up with moneylines and props. They monitor things like prior performances, health concerns, injuries, etc. Unless you’re a professional gambler, they devote more time to it than you can because it’s their job. 

The odds are long for a reason when you see a sizable underdog. Bettors are drawn in by the potential payout when the “house” is trying to entice them to place wagers on a fighter with no chance of actually winning. Betting on an MMA underdog doesn’t mean betting foolishly.

Remember that no fighter, regardless of how far ahead they are in the betting, is guaranteed to win. In MMA, anything is possible; all it takes is one lucky punch to end the match. 

MMA Underdogs & Mental Combat

Press conferences and interviews are frequently used by fighters to gain insight into their opponents’ minds. Although not every fighter does this, it has become common practice for people like Conor McGregor to make a WWE-styled promo in an effort to distract his opponent. As a bettor, you should be aware of this phenomenon because some fights are decided long before the competitors step inside the Octagon. 

A fighter must maintain composure at all times if they want to compete at the top of their game. Fighters who lose their composure or fight out of emotion frequently stray from their game plans. The purpose of trash talking before a fight is to apply pressure to the opposition and cause them to falter. Fighters have to know how to play the mental game.