nfl
nfl
i have an opinion

(also an asshole)
this is the nfl. each team has 55? or so of "the best athletes in the world of football" so that nothing that happens in this league is a surprise. i think therefore that the teams playing with the most EMOTION are the one's to bet on. figuring that out is the
hard part---not the spread. have never done a study but i would
bet that the #3 as far as spread goes is the most common #
put out by vegas. the mere spread # pretty much tells you that the teams are even. therefore EMOTIONS(and turnovers, of course) pretty much tell you who is gonna win.
sometimes you can make a play AGAINST a player(yesterday i played against "bonehead" Griese and the dolphins) and won.
EVERY angle, etc said play miami, but as good as griese looked against sd---he looked just as bad against a decent defense(2 fumbles, which i believe makes as many fumbles as games started in his career). fade this guy in a MEANINGFUL game and you will make $
also in this league, 2-3 plays make a difference in your bet.
lost the under 49 packer bet last night due to 1 play (i think anyway) which was favre's interception before the half on 3rd and long that gave the vikes a short field td. take away that
play and pack punts and i really dont believe that mn goes 80 yds for a td and thusly gb would not be in a hurry to get back down the field to make 34 points at halftime.
i remember spurrier talking while he was still in college about how much he disliked playing alabama. said they were very difficult to prepare for. what struck me though was him saying that fl just seemed to make 2 or 3 more plays than al did when they played.
after hearing him say that, and being a recreational bettor, i have always approached this nfl betting with an eye towards which tm
will be the one to make those 2-3 plays to get the win and cover.
lots easier said than done---so then i fall back on EMOTION.