Se?or Cappers Week 11

[Senor Capper]

Renvenge Week using Vegas' Opening Lines


Houston at Buffalo -7

Bills have looked real bad recently having gone w/o a TD in 3 of their last 4 games and managing a mere 185 yds vs Dallas despite the ATS push. Buffalo is in a Cowboy/Colt sandwich but needs to win 'em all. I'm looking for a Bills bounceback here.
Bills are a solid 10-2-1 ATS play as a November Home Favorite.

Circle the wagons pilgrims.

Bills

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New York Giants at Philly -3.5

Revenge game for the G-men who completely dominated the Eagles a few weeks ago but lost on a late punt return.
In that affair NY had a 25-9 FD edge as well as a 339-134 yard advantage.
LW NY was hammered by the lowly Falcons w/ their 30th ranked "O" for 216 RYs. Unreal.
Eagles are 12-2 ATS at home off a pair of RGs as well as 13-5 ATS play in November.

Passing on this one like Gmas Sweet Potato Pie

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Arizona at Cleveland -6.5

Fresh off an embarassment by my Chiefs the Brownies gave up 41 pts to KC when they were averaging 16 ppg.
Cards have a revenger next week with STL but should still keep this one closer than the Vegas line dictates.

Lean 'Zona

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Kansas City at Cincinnati + 6.5

Current line is 6. Lotta talk in Cincy. Gotta love Coach Vermeils comeback. I'm still laughing my azz off.

KC last 3 road covers have come by just 4 points.
Series dog is a stellar 9-0 ATS.
Cincy is an impressive 7-1 ATS as a Nov host vs squad off SU win.

I wouldn't bet the Bungholes with Jacks money or would I ? :nono:
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St.Louis at Chicago +6.5

2 teams a world apart. Bears ranked only ahead of the Lions in "O". Seems so easy doesn't it?
But wait!!
Host is 7-2 ATS in Chicago Contests this year & 15-1 SU in STL games of late.
Bears are 12-3 ATS as non-div HDs & 8-1-1 ATS vs non-div teams in Nov.

Hold on to your sombreros amigos....

Bears Moneyline "Insane Play of the Week :shocked:
Of course I will take the points for records sake.

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Washington at Carolina -6

Carolina stands at 7-2 SU with but 2 wins by more than a FG. Unreal.

Chalk is 0-6 ATS in this series.

Panthers in a Tampa/Dallas sandwich.
Pass the pickle Emily.

'Skins + whatever you can get your hands on

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Jacksonville at Tennessee -10.5

Jags fresh off their upset of the Colts in the final 1:08.
Titans off the thrashing off the Fins which they led 31-0 at one point. They have only allowed 2 teams to reach 100 RYs.
Titans on a 19-4 SU run & 17-6 ATS skein. 2nd best team in the NFL behind my beloved Chiefs.

SU Winner is a perfect 17-0 ATS in this series

:142hail: Titans Roll Line has dropped to 9.5 Get it. Got it? Good!
----------------------------

Baltimore at Miami -6

Fins off their complete embarassment at the Hands of the Titans LW including 3 INTs and 2 fumbles.
Fins have managed just 12 FDS in each of its last 2 games & hasn't reached 100 RYs in their last 4 outings.

Maimi is 13-3 as a Nov chalk.
Ravens are 17-5 ATS as RDs.

If you twisted my arm I would play the Dog here but you aren't and I'm not.

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Atlanta at New Orleans -8.5

This one is revenge for Atlantas earlier 45-17 loss.

Falcons are an amazing 17-1 ATS as a series RD.
The Aints counter 11-2 ATS off a win 18-5-1 as non-div RDs.

Saints should come marching in

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New York JETS at Indianapolis -6.5

HUGE revenge here for Da Colts who were dismantled 41-0 in LYs Playoff meeting. Seems like an automatic call with Indy at 7-2 & NY at 3-6.
Not so fast Earnhart.
JETS are averaging 412 yds the past 2 weeks w/ Chad at the helm.
Check the 174-47 RY deficit in the Indy Jag affair.

JETS are 25-9-2 ATS as RDs of late & 18-5-1 as non-div RDs.
Colts are only 8-28-1 ATS hosting losing teams.

L E A N J E T S

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San Diego at Denver -8

Plummer playing ?
Denver is 12-3 ATS at home off a SU loss.
Chargers are 11-2 ATS in div road closers.

???

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Green Bay at Tampa Bay -3.5

TB nearly came thru for me LW overcoming a 20-7 defocit but lost in the final momento.

Tampa now stands at a very impressive 20-2 ATS of a SU loss as a chalk & is a 12-5 spread play as a non-div host.

Cancel revenge here.

Tampa is the play...again!!

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Detroit at Seattle -10

Headlines: Lions win 2 straight. Woohoo.

Still aint interested

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Minnesota at Oakland +4.5

Vikes 1-9 ATS as RFs off a SU loss & 8-17 ATS as Favs vs the AFC.

Raiders Upset ??? :thinking: in a high scoring affair.

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Dallas at New England -4

Tis is the Year of the Cow isn't it ?
Gimme Points
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Pittsbrugh at San Francisco -4

Steelers are in off snapping their 5 game slide with only 11 FDs & a 379-246 yd deficit in their win over the Cards.
Ya I had Arizona.
Pitt only had a single scoring drive of more than 27 in that one.

San Fran is on a 12-3-1 Monday Night ATS run & 17-7-1 ATS as a Moinday HF.
Pitt is 9-1 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points.

Lean Niners


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Best to all

SC

46-33-1 :nooo:

 

[MadJack]

hey man!

how do you make that squiggley thing above the 'n' in senor?



good luck this week.

Jack

 

[Senor Capper]

Like that eh ?

Like that eh ?

Copied it from a online translator.

BTW I won't ask you for money to play the Bungholes because my Chiefs are gonna put a hurt on 'em.


thanks & good luck to you
See you at Sunset

Lanny

 

[BigSix]

KC last 3 road covers have come by just 4 points.

Isn't that 5 points??

 

[AR182]

senor capper quote:"Pass the pickle Emily."


who is emily ? & what is she doing with your pickle ?

 

[Senor Capper]

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KC last 3 road covers have come by just 4 points.

Isn't that 5 points??

Let's see.....

at Balt 10-17 Line was 3 = 4
at GB 34-40 Line was 2.5 = 3.5
at Oak 10-17 Line was 4.5 = 2.5

:shrug:

 

[Wolftaz]

Senor.... I think the Chiefs are the best team in the league right now, but do not underestimate the Bengals... Bungles, Bungholes...etc. That crap is in the past. Plus the Bengals have been a moneymaker this season. Bengals always get it going around this time of year, only difference this year is that they have something to play for. It would not surprise me if KC came in and blew them out, but it also would not surprise me to see the Bengals win the game. I'll be at the game 17 rows back on the 50 right behind KC's bench enjoying the game either way.....



:shrug:

 

[BigSix]

Senor,

I was using the past lines/scores from bestbettor and it has;

at Balt 10-17 Line was KC -3
at GB 34-40 Line was KC +2
at Oak 10-17 Line was KC -3.5

No matter, I'm feeling your Chiefs -6 on Sunday!

Thanks for all your posts.

GO CHIEFS!!

:clap:

 

[beertime]

what up with daaaaaaaaaaa bears??

i like it!

btw jake is set to play for the donkeys. im not sure on elam though. usually its an under against the bolts here it seems.

good luck this week

 

[ELVIS]

1. the titans are the best team in football.
2. the bengals are not going to beat the chiefs this week.


the resurgent bengals ? this is an oxymoron. sorry, but you did lose to my raiders who have only won twice this year. also, you beat the texans last week. the texans are in the bottom 5 def. this year. kc moneyline ?

 

[Wolftaz]

Sorry, Elvis....But the Titans play 2nd fiddle to the Chiefs. As for your comments on the Bengals, time will tell.

 

[ELVIS]

chefs are explosive, but they should continue winning. they will need homefield adv to beat tn. the titans, with less talent last year, lost to oak late in the 4q of the afc championship last year. mcnair is healthy and his rec are getting better. have you seen kearse lately ? he looks like he is playing at fla again. this def front is the best in football right now. the key is for kc to get homefield in the playoffs, and it will still be a tough game. either way i don't like either team - may they both lose!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Senor Capper]

My bad BIG 6

My bad BIG 6

you got it right. Looks like it's 2 outta 3.

 

[Senor Capper]

Elvis lets look at the Power Ratings this week

Elvis lets look at the Power Ratings this week

NFL Power Rankings
Rank LW Team

1 1 Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)

Oooh, storm warnings. Dick Vermeil told everyone how great his guys did against the Browns. A nasty, hungry team is waiting in a nasty stadium (This is just a joke, Bengals fans, a play on words. Actually, your stadium reminds me of the Colosseum of Rome) in Cincinnati, and I think it's upset time. Don't feel bad, Chiefs. Everyone has gone through it, except the 1972 Dolphins, and those guys are getting along in years now, with hip replacements and stuff like that.

2 3 Tennessee Titans (7-2)

The only area in which they're not impressive is the one that used to be their trademark, the running game. They've been grooming Robert Holcombe to take some of the load off Eddie George, but Holcombe's an average back, at best. Rookie Chris Brown looked impressive in mop-up duties against the Dolphins, but that's an artificial situation. I just have the feeling that if the Titans get involved in a contest in which they have to win the game on the ground, they'll come up short.


3 5 Carolina Panthers (7-2)

This week I had to do a prediction piece for Sports Illustrated on how the postseason would play out. I predicted a St. Louis-K.C. Super Bowl. Then I saw the way the Ravens took that Rams offense apart, and I did a switch and picked the Panthers. Jake Delhomme passed a milestone (passed a kidney stone?) against the Bucs. He won the game with his arm against a serious defense. Was this a mere aberration, or something a bit more permanent? I lean toward the latter.


4 4 New England Patriots (7-2)

Look, all you e-mailers from Malden and Roxbury and Jamaica Plain -- no more nasty letters about how the Pats beat the Titans and why they should climb out of their bye week into the No. 2 spot. Just keep winning instead of whining and things will work out. (Seems like I've heard that before).


5 2 Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

Just received this notice from the Department of Goofy Stats, Motivational Division: The Jaguars, by beating Indianapolis, prevented the Colts from accomplishing a feat that's never been done, beating all three Florida teams on the road. I can hear Jack Del Rio's pregame speech now: "Guys, the Dolphins are counting on you, the Bucs are counting on you." Time to get serious. When Marvin Harrison went down with a strained hamstring, the offense turned into Screen Central. According to our Jacksonville correspondent's actual count, Peyton Manning threw 12 of those little screen passes. He can probably get by without Harrison against the Jets, but the week after, in Buffalo, it'll be another story.


6 9 Dallas Cowboys (7-2)

I'm going to say an arrogant, overbearing thing that'll send the e-mailers scurrying to their hell machines: If you're a real football fan, you had to like the Buffalo-Dallas game. A heavyweight slugfest, nothing coming cheaply, every inch dearly won. The best thing about the Cowboys defense is the way the backs can lock onto the hot receivers to cover for the blitz. The second best thing is MLB Dat Nguyen, who is getting a serious look from old Z for his all-pro team.

7 15 Philadelphia Eagles (6-3)

I'm not interested in hearing about which part of the team is strong, which part is weak. What the Eagles showed me Monday night is that they know how to win. Some teams with fancier personnel still have to learn that.


8 10 St. Louis Rams (6-3)

Well, the Ravens handed them the game, but if you're a Ram fan you had to like the way their defense, which was very thin along the line, hung in and fought the fatigue after being on the field for 45 snaps in the first half. Tyoka Jackson got the start for injured DLE Leonard Little, and he was terrific. Jackson has been good every time I've seen him. Too bad he can't crack the regular lineup, but I guess it's a real luxury, being able to bring in a guy like this as a situation pass rusher.


9 7 Seattle Seahawks (6-3)

The formula isn't hard to figure out. They win 'em all at home, lose to every halfway decent opponent on the road. They'd better hope 9-7 will get them into the playoffs, because they have roadies coming up against the Ravens, Vikings, Rams and Niners.


10 6 Minnesota Vikings (6-3)

I'm surprised that USA Today or another one of those Goofy Stat collectors hasn't come up with the record for most consecutive games allowing 450 yards or more (three in a row for the Vikes ... 450, 451, 458), while still maintaining an overall winning record. And if this one doesn't fly, then there are all sorts of variations available off this theme.


11 8 Miami Dolphins (5-4)

If Nguyen isn't my all-pro MLB, then it'll probably be Zach Thomas. Did you see what the Miami defense looked like without him in the middle? Did you see how helpless the Dolphins were when they tried to go with six DBs, which became an even worse seven-back set? They went with the seven backs because the 4-1-6 wouldn't work without Thomas as its lone linebacker. This concept is known, among professors in the ethics department, as assumed excellence through negative availability.


12 12 Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

Ray Lewis was miked up for the Rams game, and usually I don't pay much attention to this gimmick, but he said something very poignant and meaningful during the course of the evening. This was addressed to the Ravens' offense. "Just don't give 'em a score," he pleaded. They didn't listen to him. It's sad. Why can't the organization put the components of a passing game on the field? I'm talking about quarterback and wideouts, all of which are missing in Baltimore.


13 11 Green Bay Packers (4-5)

The wet ball flew out of Brett Favre's hand (the one with the broken thumb) three times, the last one drawing the curtain on the Monday nighter against Philly. I harken back to a quote of his that the networks used not once but twice Monday, in their usual run of Favre features. "It's mind over matter. If you don't mind, it doesn't matter." It's catchy. I like it. I don't understand it. Explanatory e-mails are welcome. Jimmy, let the best three of them through.


14 14 Denver Broncos (5-4)

Is Jake back yet? Not today, but maybe on Sunday? Fine, then I'll keep the Broncs treading water after their bye.


15 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)

If I were running this country, I would put out the following memo: "The Justice Department will prosecute any newspaper that refers to the phrases 'swagger' or 'trash talk' or 'overconfidence' in reference to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This also refers to TV and radio networks and affiliates, as well as wall posters, leaflets, fliers and floppers. It will also take a hard look at any such conversation overheard."


16 16 San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

Nothing to say,
On bye week, no play,
The Steelers, this day,
And then it's Green Bay.
(Just lost a wager. The Flaming Redhead bet me I wouldn't have the nerve to work "gay" into my rhyme scheme).

 

[Senor Capper]

17 21 Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)

This is my hot team, the club I've designated as the one that will record the weekend's most shocking upset when it upends Kansas City. Don't be surprised that the Bengals like to run so much. Marvin Lewis is a defensive coach, and those people always favor a ground game, whether it's Corey Dillon or Rudi Johnson or Rudy Giuliani carrying the ball. From that nasty part of my brain comes the little voice: Well, Dick LeBeau was a defensive coach, too, and he never ran anyone the way Lewis ran Johnson last week. That's the good thing about arguments with yourself. You always break even.


18 18 Buffalo Bills (4-5)

Loved their defense last Sunday, especially the play of left corner Antoine Winfield. What I didn't love was the way Drew Bledsoe failed to protect the ball, even with no one actually slamming it out of there. Bore an eerie resemblance to some of Kurt Warner's fumbles in Week 1.


19 19 New Orleans Saints (4-5)

The final bye team, and yes, all four have held their spots from last week, which might be a record, and at this point I say let's move on to a team that's really interesting, and that would be the ...


20 17 New York Giants (4-5)

n my long career as a beat man I never wrote a "fire the coach" piece -- or even a speculative one on when he'd be canned -- while the season was going on. After the season ... well, OK, kind of, although I never got on the soap box and said "this guy absolutely has to go." My feeling is, the poor devils have a hard enough job. They work impossible hours. Let 'em alone, for God's sake. But yet, one local paper on Tuesday carried no less than three major pieces on Jim Fassel's future with the club. I know all the writers. One or two are pretty good friends. But I'll say this to my fellow journalists: How would you like it if every time you blow a deadline or miss an angle, there are people standing behind you taking a pro or con on your future? The season has seven games to run. Take a position on the man, if you must, and then get off it. Leave him alone while his guys are still playing. And now the prosecution may proceed with its argument.


21 25 Washington Redskins (4-5)

Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, flushed with success, is now calling the plays. And what happens if this rosy glow darkens, and next week the offense gets stuffed? Will the fans be screaming for Jackson's head? One of the great difficulties in life, I find, is to organize your priorities on just whom to get mad at.


22 23 Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

Joey Porter, after the Cardinals victory: "You hear the locker room? It's buzzing right now. Everyone's not quiet. This is a locker room I'm used to." I've got another explanation. Flies.


23 20 Houston Texans (3-6)

Last year at this stage they ranked 11th in the NFL in defense. Fine, that part's OK, so this season we'll concentrate on the attack. And now the defense has slipped to 31st, and it has allowed 500 yards more than it did after nine games in 2002. We're collecting explanation forms at that desk over there. Players have been hurt. Better caliber of opposition. Well, those are a start.


24 22 Cleveland Browns (3-6)

I hear a feeble murmuring ... they killed the Steelers, but Pittsburgh's rated higher. It's feeble because true Browns fans are so upset by three straight losses that they can't worry about minor issues such as the Z Rankings.


25 32 San Diego Chargers (2-7)

Leave it to a fellow Columbia guy to come up with the right answer. Defensive end Marcellus Wiley said Doug Flutie, not Drew Brees, should be running the show. "Hey you," he was told, "shaddup and siddown!" And now look what happened. Boy, am I glad that Chargers-Vikings was one of the games I taped. I'm going to enjoy watching it at my leisure.


26 24 Arizona Cardinals (3-6)

They're on the road again, then they come home to meet the Rams. They don't even have the stove advantage anymore, since the desert has cooled off to the 90s ... yeah, OK, Linda, I won't make it any worse than it is ... to the 70s. Well, what the heck. Phoenix just landed the Super Bowl for 2008, edging out Washington, New Jersey and Wilmington, Del. Big news, Cardinals fans, even though you'll never see your team in it as long as Bidwill & Co. is steering the ship.


27 27 Detroit Lions (3-6)

A Detroit writer called me to ask what I thought of Joey Harrington against the Bears. I didn't have the heart to tell him that it wasn't one of the games on my tape menu last weekend. Or my dinner menu, either. In general, I see a headstrong kid who will throw the pick every so often but isn't a goody-goody, take-your-five-yard-gain-and-be-happy kind of guy, either.


28 28 New York Jets (3-6)

My late game, Buffalo-Dallas, finished in time for me to catch the end of Jets-Raiders. I saw them lining up for the field goal. I saw the kicker, Doug Brien, crank himself up, doing his routine. I expected to see a frog come hopping out onto the field. Or the stadium lights explode. Or a streaker, or a stalker. Anything that would put a further hex on this snake-bitten team. But no, straight through the uprights went Brien's kick, and it was high fives all around, they had beaten one of the few NFL teams worse than they are. Here in New York we are thankful for small things. Such as kickers.


29 30 Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)

Payback is a lost art in the NFL. In the old days a player would get even with someone who did him dirty, but now everyone's making too much money for such trivia. Thus it was a rare and heartwarming sight to see Fred Taylor get even with a Colts' guy who had taunted him, SS Reggie Doss, by running over him on the way to a TD. Next Sunday many sermons will be devoted to the topic of how you can get even in a clean and manly way, without resorting to the sneaky, awful things your faithful narrator used to be guilty of.


30 31 Atlanta Falcons (2-7)

On the heels of four Giant turnovers (actually, let's lower-case that ... four giant turnovers) comes Dan Reeves' 200th victory. If I were Dan, I'd have Tiki Barber and Kerry Collins sign the ball, which will find its way to his trophy case.


31 26 Chicago Bears (3-6)

Teams with worse records are ranked higher, a team with a worse record is ranked lower. The great melting pot of the Bowery soup kitchens down here.


32 29 Oakland Raiders (2-7)

Last year it was all pass and no run. Last week it was all run and no pass. This is called balancing your offense.


Hmm KC #1 Oakland # 32. What's wrong with this picture ?

Absolutely Nothing !!!


Thought I would rub this in while I still had the chance.

SC

 

[ELVIS]

senor, did we have to put up the #32 team ?



agree with the titans no run, but they haven't had a run game for two years. just think their front 4 is the best in football right now. that pass rush is scary.

as for my beloved, we are auditioning for the #1 draft choice. that is why davis held the team together. it was his only way to draft ELI MANNING. tough to believe he would sacrifice the season to get him, but davis is a visionary and genius.

 

[Baller]

Senor, wondering if you got any late updates on your pix? Do you think KC/CIN is gonna be a shoot out?

 

[The Mover]

Senior like the Bill's play even though -7 is a lot but they have the #2 def. don't see much pressure from Houston on Bledsoe ,poss. 3-4 T.D. Good Luck! Can't believe had to find you on the 2nd. pg.

 

[Senor Capper]

running a bit late

running a bit late


All opening lines

Sides

Bills -7 (scratched Moulds out)
KC - 6
Arizona +6.5
Tenn - 9.5
Add TB -3.5


Totals ( I rarely play 'em)

KC/Cin Over 46.5
Jets/Indy Over 43
Mia/Bal Under 34
NE/Dal Under 35.5

Monday Nighter San Fran - 4


Best to all
SC

Oh ya and the Nsane Play of the Week....Da Bears + 6.5

 

[ChrryBlstr]

good luck, senor!!!