please give me advice on 2nd half bets
- Thread starter jerry
- Start date
It depends, Not always will that work out. There are many great 2nd half handicappers. Just check the threads out....
i am curious if anyone has compiled stats and determined that the juice posted on halftime lines is significant in determining the likelihood of wins or losses over time?
that is, the -120 bets come up winners more often that the even bets. Or vice versa... I am wondering if the line itself vis a vis the juice should tell you who to bet on?
Any thoughts?
that is, the -120 bets come up winners more often that the even bets. Or vice versa... I am wondering if the line itself vis a vis the juice should tell you who to bet on?
Any thoughts?
While I do not consider myself a great capper I have found that for me capping halves is much more profitable. I like to watch how the first half goes (although do play some 1st half and games) and get a feel for the game. Just taking the team that is down at half because they are down is not sound. I look at things like turnovers, tempo, weather, missed calls, big plays, and so on. I then look at the halftime line and see if it reflects the things that I have seen throughout the game. If it does then I usually do not have a play, but if they post a line based on the preception of the two teams rather than the flow of the game I can usually find a play. Good Example of this was the jets/jags game yesterday. At the half there were 6 total points and to me it did not look as though either team wanted to score, if the line would have been 18 or so I would not have pulled the trigger but when I saw 21 it was a no brainer. They managed to put 17 on the board for an easy under cover. To me the difference in game and half plays is all about feel. This may not work for all but it has served me well.
GL
GL
I am not speaking for CIE but woud imagine he is talking about who was precieved to win the game as apposed to the 1/2 line. For example denver was 10 point favs yest. yet down 2 at the half. not sure what the halftime line was but would imagine it was around den. -7. Either way den would have been favored and "the public" would have felt it a good bet thinking the broncos would at least win if not cover the game line. Well we all know what happened and chi backers were happy. Again not speaking for CIE just the way I see it.
GL
GL
UGA12
UGA12
Well written!! I'll add that you be prepared well in advance of the halftime break, since you have a small window of time in which to place your bet. Look at betting through more than one sportsbook, since there is a big variance in 2nd half lines. i.e. I had a 2nd half line last night that was 1 1/2 points better than a friends and his total was 1 1/2 points better than mine.
Keep it Positive, Topdog
UGA12
Well written!! I'll add that you be prepared well in advance of the halftime break, since you have a small window of time in which to place your bet. Look at betting through more than one sportsbook, since there is a big variance in 2nd half lines. i.e. I had a 2nd half line last night that was 1 1/2 points better than a friends and his total was 1 1/2 points better than mine.
Keep it Positive, Topdog
im prepared,3 tv's computer & webtv.....so far ive got: be prepared,turnovers,big plays,bad calls,weather,momentum,.....thanks fellows
NOLAN's the MAN!!
NOLAN's the MAN!!
Look no further then Nolan Dalla's halftime trends.
http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan.htm
Nolan has compiled some of the best trends around as far as betting 2nd half sides/totals.
As far as defining and fading the public, if you use an offshore, just watch the spread or juice move over the course of the halftime, and go the other way right before kick-off.
NOLAN's the MAN!!
Look no further then Nolan Dalla's halftime trends.
http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan.htm
Nolan has compiled some of the best trends around as far as betting 2nd half sides/totals.
As far as defining and fading the public, if you use an offshore, just watch the spread or juice move over the course of the halftime, and go the other way right before kick-off.
You also can look at the halftime lines in comparison to the game line and see if they hold a lot of value. Yesterdays Titans game is a great example of this. I played the Titans at -6.5 as my biggest play of the day - I really liked the matchups I saw. Well at the half the score was 21-14 Falcons, and the 2H line was -4. I looked at it this way - if I liked the Titans at -6.5 for the game, I LOVED them at +3 for the game.
Also I find that you have to watch the game to have a good handle on what is really going on (tempo, momentum, etc...). Betting a 2H line soley on the halftime score will prove to be costly.
I find that if you look hard enough - you will find some 2H lines with great value every Sunday. Not every game will be a good play, but I haven't had a weekend yet where at least one didn't make a lot of sense.
Hope this helps.
BM
Also I find that you have to watch the game to have a good handle on what is really going on (tempo, momentum, etc...). Betting a 2H line soley on the halftime score will prove to be costly.
I find that if you look hard enough - you will find some 2H lines with great value every Sunday. Not every game will be a good play, but I haven't had a weekend yet where at least one didn't make a lot of sense.
Hope this helps.
BM
Jerry
Jerry
Here is one more suggestion to using this site to find winners!!
Compare how many people viewed your post that was entered this morning.......and compare that to the KC Wolf post that was entered tonight. NOW you can see the E.F.Hutton effect!!! When some people speak others listen!!
Keep it Positive, Topdog
Jerry
Here is one more suggestion to using this site to find winners!!
Compare how many people viewed your post that was entered this morning.......and compare that to the KC Wolf post that was entered tonight. NOW you can see the E.F.Hutton effect!!! When some people speak others listen!!
Keep it Positive, Topdog
topdog,kcwolf & his remark was uncalled for,trying to belittle everyone who capped 2nites game is not something that is acceptable....if you can dish out crap like that,be prepared for some feedback.
Jerry
Jerry
"Just did a quick breeze though the threads tonight.
I'm passing, and it makes me ill to see anyone playing this game. There are way to many injuries to figure this game out.
gl!"
Jerry, I now think that this was just a misunderstanding. Wolf's entire business depends on two things; #1 Gamblers, #2 Protecting our hard earned money.
I read this to mean that there was not enough value for him to have a play. Saying PASS is harder than picking a 50-50 play out of a hat. Consider what may have influenced this decision; Coaching (Poor decisions), injuries (Both teams), Turnover prone, Red zone percentage, Benching Keyshawn, Playing a self promoting Sapp, and many many more.
Enough on this subject, Keep it Positive, Topdog
Jerry
"Just did a quick breeze though the threads tonight.
I'm passing, and it makes me ill to see anyone playing this game. There are way to many injuries to figure this game out.
gl!"
Jerry, I now think that this was just a misunderstanding. Wolf's entire business depends on two things; #1 Gamblers, #2 Protecting our hard earned money.
I read this to mean that there was not enough value for him to have a play. Saying PASS is harder than picking a 50-50 play out of a hat. Consider what may have influenced this decision; Coaching (Poor decisions), injuries (Both teams), Turnover prone, Red zone percentage, Benching Keyshawn, Playing a self promoting Sapp, and many many more.
Enough on this subject, Keep it Positive, Topdog
