ncaa tournament first round plays + thoughts....

gman2

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day one -- thursday 3/18/04

(lost) arizona -2.5 over seton hall
(won) texas tech -1.5 over charlotte
(won) north carolina / air force under 126.5
(won) nevada +2 over michigan state


day two -- friday 3/19/04

(top play of the 1st round) east tennessee st +9.5 over cincinnati
east tennessee state/cincinnati over 146
louisville -1.5 over xavier
lafayette +7.5 over north carolina state
utah +1.5 over boston college

add: illinois-chicago (+8) over kansas with a small shot on illinois-chicago moneyline (+330)

add: richmond/wisconsin 2h under 63


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east tennessee v. cincinnati
my favorite play of the first round. this same etsu team (with all five starters returning) was one shot away from beating wake forest in the opening round last year. as a true freshman, tim smith scored 22 on the deacs. this year, hes leading etsu in scoring at 17 per game and (as evidenced by his performance in the southern tourney) he is playing his best ball down the stretch. he could be the best player youve never heard of. this team is loaded with experience and loaded with confidence. as much as i like huggy bear as a coach, his teams are just too unreliable in the first round of the tourney. etsu is not going to be intimidated by the bearcats. they have a very nice inside/out game and will have no problem with the bearcats aggressive, uptempo style. theyre used to it and this is an explosive dog that can score.
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louisville v. xavier
xavier and maryland are probably the two hottest teams in the country heading into the tourney. muskateers took out st.joes and basically dominated the competition in the a-10 tourney. louisville has underachieved the last month of the season. but this louisville team reminds me a lot of the arizona from 2001 that went through the motions and suffered inexplicable losses the last month or two of the regular season.....and then turned it on and then made it all the way to the ncaa final. this team is super talented and obviously well-coached. for louisville to go from the #3 team in the country a month or two ago to now playing as a #10 seed in the ncaa tournament is preposterous. of course louisville sort of brought it upon themselves but theres no doubt in my mind this is a team capable of winning THE ENTIRE THING. needless to say, i see them getting past the first round. this line is really knee-jerked to reflect xaviers surge and louisvilles mediocrity the last month. but with all records erased and at a neutral site, louisville is 7-8 points better in my opinion
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arizona v. seton hall
another seeding thats a little ridiculous in my opinion. hate to make it sound so basic, but i really think in this first round matchup, talent wins out. olsen can basically throw his five guys on the floor and say "we outclass you athletically". is seton hall gonna lay down? of course not. barrett is a stud and the pirates have some very nice big east wins. but zona is another team that is capable of getting to the final four (and getting by duke in the second round).
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lafayette v. nc state
i guess im a sucker for very athletic and offensively-skilled small conference dogs. nc state backed into the tournament and in my opinion, hasnt played well since their duke upset a month ago. i just dont understand why nc state has gone so far away from their offensive motion. all they want to do is pass the ball around the perimeter and shoot 3s. when theyre hot, theyre very very good. but theyre ripe for an upset if theyre not careful. lafayette is legit....theyve got FIVE players that score in double figures. theyre not a one-dimensional underdog that tries to ride their one superstar. they have five guys who can score and they shoot the 3 very well (38% for the season). boyd has unlimited range and they have great athleticism on the perimeter, including orien greene (who was a big time recruit of billy donovans at florida before transferring). they also took arizona to the wire in tucson earlier this season, losing 72-69. very live underdog.
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utah v. boston college
big tease just about sums it up: utah is indeed the most unathletic team and boring team to watch in the tournament. theyre really quite the motley crew. tim frost looks perpetually stoned and disoriented. but the bottom line is they are a bitch to play in the tournament. very well coached. very disciplined. and they make you play their tempo. aesthetically, theyre incredibly rough on the eyes. but they just find ways to get it done. jacobsen is a big time shooter on the perimeter and i like their size on the interior. bogut has really come on strong to finish the season and (no matter how goof-looking) frost is incredibly valuable to them and is a nice player. i guess a lot of people are high on boston college. i just dont see it. nothing excites me about them, and nothing they do justifies them laying chalk here. utah is the better team. i think utah v. georgia tech in a possible 2nd round matchup is very intriguing. not getting ahead of myself, but utah v. georgia tech reminds me a lot of utah v. oregon last year in the tourney. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
other thoughts:

manhattan v. florida
jaspers very much the 'chic' pick to pull a first round upset. line is really dropping. value is gone. i wont be playing it, but definitely would concur with those jasper-backers. tourney-tested and they probably have one of the top 5 individual players in the tournament in flores. gonzalez capable of becoming this years stan heath in the tourney. this game has upset written all over it, no matter how trendy it might be.

wake v. virginia commonwealth
wake is an enigma. theyre capable of getting to the final four but also capable of bailing early. vcu probably gonna receive some pub for getting to the tournament with the youngest coach in college basketball. wake definitely outclasses vcu, but i dont think its a guaranteed cakewalk. for what its worth- asked a good friend of mine (who recently played in the acc) what he thought the line would be for this one and he said wake by 7 or 8. hes not a bettor, but i found that interesting. i still pass though.

byu v. syracuse
i very much want to pull the trigger on byu but still going back and forth on the game. i think araujo is going to be very formidable and cause syracuse some problems. another experienced, well-coached team. i dont think it should be underestimated or forgotten that the game is at the pepsi center in denver. not only does byu hold an edge in terms of proximity, but theyre also used to the altitude. they are also familiar with the arena, having just played the mountain west tourney on the same court last week.

maryland v. utep
i dont know if this is a blowout or a dangerous game for maryland. theyre surging and capable of blowing out utep. but maryland could also take the miners lightly and end up with a game on their hands. utep has been garbage away from home this year and thats why i cant trust em. but those jucos that utep has are mature and wont be in awe of an acc team. sometimes these "rivival stories" (going from 20+ losses last year to the ncaas) dont always turn out well. sometimes they are just outclassed when they face a solid team. utep might be an exception. all those junior college transfers instantly solidified them.

nevada v. michigan state
can anyone else figure out this line? nevada is good. actually very good. but izzo is just a money coach in the tourney. nevada is gonna stay in the game and keep it close for 40:00 but im surprised msu is basically in a win-and-cover situation.

western v. vanderbilt
line clearly says wmu or nothing. line reminds me of alabama v. kent in their elite 8 season. alabama was a 2 or 3 seed and laying just -1.5 to the double-digit seed kent state team. we know the result. something tells me this line might flip flop closer to game time so ill wait it out and see if it goes to +1. otherwise ill pass and pull for wmu to represent

illinois-chicago v. kansas
been a big flames backer in the horizon this season. but this is a terrible draw for them. kansas has never lost a first round game, and the game being is kansas city is a screwjob for uic. want to see uic do well, but i think kansas could win by double digits. uic is awesome on the perimeter with banks and bailey and that alone makes them dangerous, but theyre very small on the front line. armond williams is a good player, but he only goes 6'5. simien is gonna cause major problems for uic.

air force v. carolina
falcons will be out to prove they belong. they could very much surprise the way auburn surprised last year after everyone saying they should have been in the NIT. carolina just grossly outclasses air force in athletes. thats obviously not a surprise, but carolina is capable of doing what unlv did to air force in vegas a month ago. unlv ran em to death and won going away. carolina could conceivably go up 15-4 in the first 5:00 and air force would be d-o-n-e and get embarrassed. but if air force lulls roy's boys to sleep with their motion offense....hello upset.

monmouth v. mississippi state
sun tzu- you might be right. monmouth could be an obligatory play based on karma alone. they couldnt possibly fail me.

northern iowa v. georgia tech
panthers have been a money maker for me this year. i love em. but - similar to ill-chicago -- this is a terrible draw for them. tech could kill this team in transition. game is being played in wisconsin, so that helps. but uni would have better been suited with a big east or sec team. tech just way too athletic for them. panthers will be back to the dance in the coming years. mcdermott has turned that program around. but i think they could take an ass-whooping and learn from it
 
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gman2

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vermont v. uconn
does 'team coppenrath' keep it close? interesting game. uconn is the most talented team in the country but they dont always play like it and they struggled with these kinds of teams this season (see: yale...see: nevada). vermont is a one-man team, but they took their requisite beating at the hands of arizona last year so they could be ready to play this time around. hate betting one-man teams though. if uconn takes coppenrath out of the game, theyre done. that kid is really good though.

southern illinois v. alabama
salukis by far the most overrated team in the tournament in my opinion. utah state should have gotten in way way before siu. that being said, i dont trust alabama enough to lay chalk with em. tide should win convincingly, but thats just the thing. they SHOULD. what they actually DO is another story

depaul v. dayton
is there a more boring, uninspiring first round game? is there an american idol re-run that airs concurrently with this one? hopefully there is.

richmond v. wisconsin
not sure which way to lean on this one. spiders played a very solid schedule and that makes them dangerous. but wisky is just such a well-coached and overall solid team. and the venue sure doesnt hurt the badgers. sometimes, richmond looks so good. other times, they look like a mediocre atlantic10 team. dobbins capable of carrying richmond. harris will carry wisconsin. badgers win in typical wisky fashion.

charlotte v. texas tech
could be a great feeder game or dangerous feeder game for st.joes. if charlotte wins, st.joes will bury them in round 2. if tech wins, st.joes could have a lot of trouble on their hands. probably the toughest game of the first round in my opinion. knight needs to re-establish himself in the tourney. really dont see how a porous charlotte defense is gonna stop emmett. still passing.

memphis v. south carolina
two incredibly well-coached teams who are great defensively. should be a physical game. memphis is really capable of winning some games in this tournament but they better not overlook odom's boys. if memphis wins here, they could give oklahoma state a lot of problems. usc has been playing uptempo lately which is a little puzzling, as their personnel isnt suited for it and odom has never been an offensive coach. south carolina would be wise to get back to what got them off to their hot start this year: their defense. if they get into transition with memphis, they could lose by 8 or 10. something tells me usc will re-establish their defense and this game will be super close.

washington v. birmingham
could be the most enjoyable game to watch in the first round. should be points galore and lots of pressing and fast breaks. two teams can score and score, but somewhat inconsistent. good game to watch. cant see how its a good game to bet

princeton v. texas
horns really struggled with princeton in a regular season matchup last year. but gut feeling says horns win going away. theyve been so up and down lately. but i think theyll put it together. laying points against princeton in the ncaa tournament is borderline blasphemy. so i'll watch.

gonzaga v. valparaiso
if valpo brings the same defensive effort that they brought the last two games of the mid-continent tourney, theyll get run off the floor and the game will bust the total. im still scratching my head at how iupui choked away the mcc title game. to me, theyd be a much tougher foe for a high seed than valpo. this game looks like it could go over the total with relative ease.

central florida v. pittsburgh
ucf might be the one team in the ncaa tournament that i simply know absolutely nothing about. not gonna spew rhetoric on a game that i wont be betting or watching.

pacific v. providence
no opinion on the side, but the total looks really high (if 129.5 can be considered high). both teams are very sound defensively. pacific alllows just 60ppg and an impressive 38% field goal percentage defense. providence is sound defensively as well. and friars would prefer not to play an uptempo game. can see this one being a big time defensive duel.

eastern washington v. oklahoma state
ewu really came on strong during conference play. i didnt pay much attention to the big sky during the last month or two but paid pretty good attention to ewu earlier in the season during non-conf. they were a pretty pathetic 4-9 heading into conference play. they did play a respectable non-conf schedule (washington, iowa, oklahoma, ill-chi) but they got beat soundly in all of 'em so i really didnt get the impression that theyd put it together. lo and behold, they dominated the big sky, going 11-3 and winning the regular season title by 4 games. who knew? maybe those games vs okie and iowa help em here. they played a middle-of-the-season game vs rival gonzaga and got drilled from the opening tip and were down 20 at halftime. they shot 29% for the game. not good. i have absolutely no read on ewu. weird team. they shoot the 3 well but i think okie state can name the score.

when its all said and done, this is my final four:

CONNECTICUT
LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY
PITTSBURGH
 
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kickserv

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great write ups.........


but hey....don't forget about Lehigh......:tongue
 

stagger lee

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awesome writeups gman

and to think I've spent most of the day jumping from different web sites and making my own notes when you summarized the majority of the tourney right here, lol

thanks for taking the time to post and good luck in the tourney

any thoughts on the Yellow Jackets being a good dark horse? although a No. 3 isn't much of one. Just seems everywhere I've read, not too many people are talking about Tech. It's all Kentucky and Zags as well as Jayhawks 'home' draw from the 'St. Louis' regional
 

Blackman

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Enjoyed the write-ups - and couldn't agree more on Louisville. Put them in the Elite Eight myself - just fear that potentially playing Miss St, and Texas/UNC winner could wear on them in their region final.
 

stomie

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gman - Who do you think upsets Duke? Do you have Louisville beating them? What do you think about a possible Arizona Duke matchup and a possible Cincinnati Illinois matchup?
 

Valuist

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Gman-

I think you're a bit more forgiving of Louisville's past performances than I am. The poor play now has reached 2 full months; a 4-12-1 ATS slide. Dean is still hurting. Its funny how big their posted total have been and they've really struggled to score. They can defend well but they can't shoot.
 

THE KOD

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Valuist said:
Its funny how big their posted total have been and they've really struggled to score. They can defend well but they can't shoot.
.........................................................

Valuist

Sounds like under game total

KOD
 

mansa_musa

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Thanks for the write-ups!

Just a few comments for the sake of debate. I admit that I dont know a whole lot about the coaching/character of ETSU, but, I watched Cincy in some of the C-USA tourney & they are physically imposing as well as athletic. If the Bearcats tighten the defensive screws, do you think etsu can fight through that?

The first thing I looked for when the pairings came out was CUSA matchups. I thought the conf was overrated as far as the strengths of each individual team. A couple of matchups w A10 & Pac 10 werent very favorable for that type of analysis. Do you pay attention to conf strength when analyzing tourney games? It seems like you have a good enough grasp on the individual teams, so you dont have to make the same kind of generalizations that I do.

I think Depaul -2' is an excellent play. Dayton 5-5 in their last 10 games (3 wins v Duquesne plus LaSalle & Richmond in the A10 tourney). I cant see how this team belongs in the Big Dance. I really think conf pedigree comes into play here.

I also really liked Utah at first glance. BC may not be very special, but, I think Utah's thrilling victory over UNLV has taken alot of value out of this line. BC has played better teams all year long & the Eagles have size & quickness inside to give Utah's bigs matchup problems. Again, I think the team from the better conf prevails.

I really like BYU's matchup against Cuse. Araujo will definitely be a load for Cuse, but I think it will be all the other big bodies that make the difference for the Cougars agianst Warrick. With the lack of depth for the Orangemen, it will be hard to believe they will try to open things up & run in the altitude of Denver. I like Hall & Lemes to make things difficult for McNamara. This is my favorite upset play of the first round.

Sorry to piggyback your post, but I dont open to many threads of my own.

GL2U
 

Valuist

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Scott KOD-

Yeah, I'd probably lean toward the under there but that could blow up if XU is hitting their 3s. But generally I look for unders in the NCAA and overs in the NIT.
 

Felonious Monk

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The Louisville/Xavier game is one that mystifies me. Outside of Maryland and Kentucky, Xavier is the hottest team in the tournament. A healthy Taquan Dean and Fran Garcia are better than Lionel Chalmers and Sato. Inside games are a wash between the 2. But Dean and Garcia have never gotten over their injuires, and Pitino is paying for not having sat them longer. As long as Xavier is rested, they should win. My only problem is whenever I bet with or against the Cards, I'm usually wrong. :)
 

Sun Tzu

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Monk, a little history FWIW. Teams that win 4 straight in conference tourneys to get into the Dance - 2-7 in 1st round, 0-2 in 2nd round. Obviously something goes wrong- letdown, exhaustion, whatever. In one resepct of course, those 9 teams dont matter, but it is interesting.
 

Cie

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I like all 5 of your plays, especially UL-L. I've got them reaching the Sweet 16 in my bracket.

GL:weed:
 

taipans

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Gman,
FYI, i read that arizona only beat one team since jan 1 with a winning record(oregon). could be living off of their name and reputation.
 

gman2

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stagger:

actually yeah, i do think georgia tech could be a darhorse team. theyll likely have to beat two really good teams (gonzaga and kentucky) but georgia tech has shown they can compete with anyone in the country this season. they finished the season strong enough that i think theyre the second best team in the acc.

stomie:

i can see arizona potentially upsetting duke in round two, but i think the more likely scenario is louisville- and thats how i have my brackets playing out. as far as a potential cincinnati/illinois, i could give you an opinion now and it would likely change tomorrow. thats how ambivalent i am when it comes to illinois. im not sure if theyre a really good team, or a team that can be handled (like wisconsin did in the big 10 championship).

mansa:

yeah cincy definitely looked damn tough in the c-usa tourney. ive just seen too many bearcat teams (and ones much better than this edition) overlook their 1st round matchup and get caught in a dogfight. not sure why that is. im a big huggins fan but it seems the cats are always ripe for the upset. as for etsu handling the pressure- i honestly think they wont be fazed. their near upset of wake last year has to have buoyed their tournament confidence and theyve been on a roll since early january. they played an aggressive and athletic fresno state team on the road and won outright. i think fsu is fairly comparable to cincy in terms of style and athleticism. certainly not as good, but a good measuring stick for etsu. as for valuing conference strength, im just of the belief that these teams play 30 games prior to the tourney and they form their own identities and have myriad opportunities to prove themselves or separatre themselves from the pack. like anyone else, ive got my opinions on what conference are strong and which ones are overrated but i would say i look at each team exclusively. i agree that dayton is not a good team but im not convinced depaul is either; thus, i pass. if dayton was playing a more formidable opponent, i would probably play against em. but depaul does nothing for me.

taipans:

that stat is correct. arizona is truly an enigma. that can be said for a lot of teams but it definitely applies to the wildcats. they easily have top 5 talent in the country and theyve shown at times this year that they can be completely dominant. but then theyve also had some bad losses. i just always keep an eye out for underachieving teams once the slate is wiped clean. regular season records dont matter and i think zona is dangerous.
 

Lightning

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Very good info gman ... I wish I had the time to do write-ups like this. Well written and though I will be going against you on a few of them, I agree with the majority of them.

Good Luck!

:com:
 
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