day one -- thursday 3/18/04
(lost) arizona -2.5 over seton hall
(won) texas tech -1.5 over charlotte
(won) north carolina / air force under 126.5
(won) nevada +2 over michigan state
day two -- friday 3/19/04
(top play of the 1st round) east tennessee st +9.5 over cincinnati
east tennessee state/cincinnati over 146
louisville -1.5 over xavier
lafayette +7.5 over north carolina state
utah +1.5 over boston college
add: illinois-chicago (+8) over kansas with a small shot on illinois-chicago moneyline (+330)
add: richmond/wisconsin 2h under 63
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
east tennessee v. cincinnati
my favorite play of the first round. this same etsu team (with all five starters returning) was one shot away from beating wake forest in the opening round last year. as a true freshman, tim smith scored 22 on the deacs. this year, hes leading etsu in scoring at 17 per game and (as evidenced by his performance in the southern tourney) he is playing his best ball down the stretch. he could be the best player youve never heard of. this team is loaded with experience and loaded with confidence. as much as i like huggy bear as a coach, his teams are just too unreliable in the first round of the tourney. etsu is not going to be intimidated by the bearcats. they have a very nice inside/out game and will have no problem with the bearcats aggressive, uptempo style. theyre used to it and this is an explosive dog that can score.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
louisville v. xavier
xavier and maryland are probably the two hottest teams in the country heading into the tourney. muskateers took out st.joes and basically dominated the competition in the a-10 tourney. louisville has underachieved the last month of the season. but this louisville team reminds me a lot of the arizona from 2001 that went through the motions and suffered inexplicable losses the last month or two of the regular season.....and then turned it on and then made it all the way to the ncaa final. this team is super talented and obviously well-coached. for louisville to go from the #3 team in the country a month or two ago to now playing as a #10 seed in the ncaa tournament is preposterous. of course louisville sort of brought it upon themselves but theres no doubt in my mind this is a team capable of winning THE ENTIRE THING. needless to say, i see them getting past the first round. this line is really knee-jerked to reflect xaviers surge and louisvilles mediocrity the last month. but with all records erased and at a neutral site, louisville is 7-8 points better in my opinion
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
arizona v. seton hall
another seeding thats a little ridiculous in my opinion. hate to make it sound so basic, but i really think in this first round matchup, talent wins out. olsen can basically throw his five guys on the floor and say "we outclass you athletically". is seton hall gonna lay down? of course not. barrett is a stud and the pirates have some very nice big east wins. but zona is another team that is capable of getting to the final four (and getting by duke in the second round).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
lafayette v. nc state
i guess im a sucker for very athletic and offensively-skilled small conference dogs. nc state backed into the tournament and in my opinion, hasnt played well since their duke upset a month ago. i just dont understand why nc state has gone so far away from their offensive motion. all they want to do is pass the ball around the perimeter and shoot 3s. when theyre hot, theyre very very good. but theyre ripe for an upset if theyre not careful. lafayette is legit....theyve got FIVE players that score in double figures. theyre not a one-dimensional underdog that tries to ride their one superstar. they have five guys who can score and they shoot the 3 very well (38% for the season). boyd has unlimited range and they have great athleticism on the perimeter, including orien greene (who was a big time recruit of billy donovans at florida before transferring). they also took arizona to the wire in tucson earlier this season, losing 72-69. very live underdog.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
utah v. boston college
big tease just about sums it up: utah is indeed the most unathletic team and boring team to watch in the tournament. theyre really quite the motley crew. tim frost looks perpetually stoned and disoriented. but the bottom line is they are a bitch to play in the tournament. very well coached. very disciplined. and they make you play their tempo. aesthetically, theyre incredibly rough on the eyes. but they just find ways to get it done. jacobsen is a big time shooter on the perimeter and i like their size on the interior. bogut has really come on strong to finish the season and (no matter how goof-looking) frost is incredibly valuable to them and is a nice player. i guess a lot of people are high on boston college. i just dont see it. nothing excites me about them, and nothing they do justifies them laying chalk here. utah is the better team. i think utah v. georgia tech in a possible 2nd round matchup is very intriguing. not getting ahead of myself, but utah v. georgia tech reminds me a lot of utah v. oregon last year in the tourney. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
other thoughts:
manhattan v. florida
jaspers very much the 'chic' pick to pull a first round upset. line is really dropping. value is gone. i wont be playing it, but definitely would concur with those jasper-backers. tourney-tested and they probably have one of the top 5 individual players in the tournament in flores. gonzalez capable of becoming this years stan heath in the tourney. this game has upset written all over it, no matter how trendy it might be.
wake v. virginia commonwealth
wake is an enigma. theyre capable of getting to the final four but also capable of bailing early. vcu probably gonna receive some pub for getting to the tournament with the youngest coach in college basketball. wake definitely outclasses vcu, but i dont think its a guaranteed cakewalk. for what its worth- asked a good friend of mine (who recently played in the acc) what he thought the line would be for this one and he said wake by 7 or 8. hes not a bettor, but i found that interesting. i still pass though.
byu v. syracuse
i very much want to pull the trigger on byu but still going back and forth on the game. i think araujo is going to be very formidable and cause syracuse some problems. another experienced, well-coached team. i dont think it should be underestimated or forgotten that the game is at the pepsi center in denver. not only does byu hold an edge in terms of proximity, but theyre also used to the altitude. they are also familiar with the arena, having just played the mountain west tourney on the same court last week.
maryland v. utep
i dont know if this is a blowout or a dangerous game for maryland. theyre surging and capable of blowing out utep. but maryland could also take the miners lightly and end up with a game on their hands. utep has been garbage away from home this year and thats why i cant trust em. but those jucos that utep has are mature and wont be in awe of an acc team. sometimes these "rivival stories" (going from 20+ losses last year to the ncaas) dont always turn out well. sometimes they are just outclassed when they face a solid team. utep might be an exception. all those junior college transfers instantly solidified them.
nevada v. michigan state
can anyone else figure out this line? nevada is good. actually very good. but izzo is just a money coach in the tourney. nevada is gonna stay in the game and keep it close for 40:00 but im surprised msu is basically in a win-and-cover situation.
western v. vanderbilt
line clearly says wmu or nothing. line reminds me of alabama v. kent in their elite 8 season. alabama was a 2 or 3 seed and laying just -1.5 to the double-digit seed kent state team. we know the result. something tells me this line might flip flop closer to game time so ill wait it out and see if it goes to +1. otherwise ill pass and pull for wmu to represent
illinois-chicago v. kansas
been a big flames backer in the horizon this season. but this is a terrible draw for them. kansas has never lost a first round game, and the game being is kansas city is a screwjob for uic. want to see uic do well, but i think kansas could win by double digits. uic is awesome on the perimeter with banks and bailey and that alone makes them dangerous, but theyre very small on the front line. armond williams is a good player, but he only goes 6'5. simien is gonna cause major problems for uic.
air force v. carolina
falcons will be out to prove they belong. they could very much surprise the way auburn surprised last year after everyone saying they should have been in the NIT. carolina just grossly outclasses air force in athletes. thats obviously not a surprise, but carolina is capable of doing what unlv did to air force in vegas a month ago. unlv ran em to death and won going away. carolina could conceivably go up 15-4 in the first 5:00 and air force would be d-o-n-e and get embarrassed. but if air force lulls roy's boys to sleep with their motion offense....hello upset.
monmouth v. mississippi state
sun tzu- you might be right. monmouth could be an obligatory play based on karma alone. they couldnt possibly fail me.
northern iowa v. georgia tech
panthers have been a money maker for me this year. i love em. but - similar to ill-chicago -- this is a terrible draw for them. tech could kill this team in transition. game is being played in wisconsin, so that helps. but uni would have better been suited with a big east or sec team. tech just way too athletic for them. panthers will be back to the dance in the coming years. mcdermott has turned that program around. but i think they could take an ass-whooping and learn from it
(lost) arizona -2.5 over seton hall
(won) texas tech -1.5 over charlotte
(won) north carolina / air force under 126.5
(won) nevada +2 over michigan state
day two -- friday 3/19/04
(top play of the 1st round) east tennessee st +9.5 over cincinnati
east tennessee state/cincinnati over 146
louisville -1.5 over xavier
lafayette +7.5 over north carolina state
utah +1.5 over boston college
add: illinois-chicago (+8) over kansas with a small shot on illinois-chicago moneyline (+330)
add: richmond/wisconsin 2h under 63
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
east tennessee v. cincinnati
my favorite play of the first round. this same etsu team (with all five starters returning) was one shot away from beating wake forest in the opening round last year. as a true freshman, tim smith scored 22 on the deacs. this year, hes leading etsu in scoring at 17 per game and (as evidenced by his performance in the southern tourney) he is playing his best ball down the stretch. he could be the best player youve never heard of. this team is loaded with experience and loaded with confidence. as much as i like huggy bear as a coach, his teams are just too unreliable in the first round of the tourney. etsu is not going to be intimidated by the bearcats. they have a very nice inside/out game and will have no problem with the bearcats aggressive, uptempo style. theyre used to it and this is an explosive dog that can score.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
louisville v. xavier
xavier and maryland are probably the two hottest teams in the country heading into the tourney. muskateers took out st.joes and basically dominated the competition in the a-10 tourney. louisville has underachieved the last month of the season. but this louisville team reminds me a lot of the arizona from 2001 that went through the motions and suffered inexplicable losses the last month or two of the regular season.....and then turned it on and then made it all the way to the ncaa final. this team is super talented and obviously well-coached. for louisville to go from the #3 team in the country a month or two ago to now playing as a #10 seed in the ncaa tournament is preposterous. of course louisville sort of brought it upon themselves but theres no doubt in my mind this is a team capable of winning THE ENTIRE THING. needless to say, i see them getting past the first round. this line is really knee-jerked to reflect xaviers surge and louisvilles mediocrity the last month. but with all records erased and at a neutral site, louisville is 7-8 points better in my opinion
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
arizona v. seton hall
another seeding thats a little ridiculous in my opinion. hate to make it sound so basic, but i really think in this first round matchup, talent wins out. olsen can basically throw his five guys on the floor and say "we outclass you athletically". is seton hall gonna lay down? of course not. barrett is a stud and the pirates have some very nice big east wins. but zona is another team that is capable of getting to the final four (and getting by duke in the second round).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
lafayette v. nc state
i guess im a sucker for very athletic and offensively-skilled small conference dogs. nc state backed into the tournament and in my opinion, hasnt played well since their duke upset a month ago. i just dont understand why nc state has gone so far away from their offensive motion. all they want to do is pass the ball around the perimeter and shoot 3s. when theyre hot, theyre very very good. but theyre ripe for an upset if theyre not careful. lafayette is legit....theyve got FIVE players that score in double figures. theyre not a one-dimensional underdog that tries to ride their one superstar. they have five guys who can score and they shoot the 3 very well (38% for the season). boyd has unlimited range and they have great athleticism on the perimeter, including orien greene (who was a big time recruit of billy donovans at florida before transferring). they also took arizona to the wire in tucson earlier this season, losing 72-69. very live underdog.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
utah v. boston college
big tease just about sums it up: utah is indeed the most unathletic team and boring team to watch in the tournament. theyre really quite the motley crew. tim frost looks perpetually stoned and disoriented. but the bottom line is they are a bitch to play in the tournament. very well coached. very disciplined. and they make you play their tempo. aesthetically, theyre incredibly rough on the eyes. but they just find ways to get it done. jacobsen is a big time shooter on the perimeter and i like their size on the interior. bogut has really come on strong to finish the season and (no matter how goof-looking) frost is incredibly valuable to them and is a nice player. i guess a lot of people are high on boston college. i just dont see it. nothing excites me about them, and nothing they do justifies them laying chalk here. utah is the better team. i think utah v. georgia tech in a possible 2nd round matchup is very intriguing. not getting ahead of myself, but utah v. georgia tech reminds me a lot of utah v. oregon last year in the tourney. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
other thoughts:
manhattan v. florida
jaspers very much the 'chic' pick to pull a first round upset. line is really dropping. value is gone. i wont be playing it, but definitely would concur with those jasper-backers. tourney-tested and they probably have one of the top 5 individual players in the tournament in flores. gonzalez capable of becoming this years stan heath in the tourney. this game has upset written all over it, no matter how trendy it might be.
wake v. virginia commonwealth
wake is an enigma. theyre capable of getting to the final four but also capable of bailing early. vcu probably gonna receive some pub for getting to the tournament with the youngest coach in college basketball. wake definitely outclasses vcu, but i dont think its a guaranteed cakewalk. for what its worth- asked a good friend of mine (who recently played in the acc) what he thought the line would be for this one and he said wake by 7 or 8. hes not a bettor, but i found that interesting. i still pass though.
byu v. syracuse
i very much want to pull the trigger on byu but still going back and forth on the game. i think araujo is going to be very formidable and cause syracuse some problems. another experienced, well-coached team. i dont think it should be underestimated or forgotten that the game is at the pepsi center in denver. not only does byu hold an edge in terms of proximity, but theyre also used to the altitude. they are also familiar with the arena, having just played the mountain west tourney on the same court last week.
maryland v. utep
i dont know if this is a blowout or a dangerous game for maryland. theyre surging and capable of blowing out utep. but maryland could also take the miners lightly and end up with a game on their hands. utep has been garbage away from home this year and thats why i cant trust em. but those jucos that utep has are mature and wont be in awe of an acc team. sometimes these "rivival stories" (going from 20+ losses last year to the ncaas) dont always turn out well. sometimes they are just outclassed when they face a solid team. utep might be an exception. all those junior college transfers instantly solidified them.
nevada v. michigan state
can anyone else figure out this line? nevada is good. actually very good. but izzo is just a money coach in the tourney. nevada is gonna stay in the game and keep it close for 40:00 but im surprised msu is basically in a win-and-cover situation.
western v. vanderbilt
line clearly says wmu or nothing. line reminds me of alabama v. kent in their elite 8 season. alabama was a 2 or 3 seed and laying just -1.5 to the double-digit seed kent state team. we know the result. something tells me this line might flip flop closer to game time so ill wait it out and see if it goes to +1. otherwise ill pass and pull for wmu to represent
illinois-chicago v. kansas
been a big flames backer in the horizon this season. but this is a terrible draw for them. kansas has never lost a first round game, and the game being is kansas city is a screwjob for uic. want to see uic do well, but i think kansas could win by double digits. uic is awesome on the perimeter with banks and bailey and that alone makes them dangerous, but theyre very small on the front line. armond williams is a good player, but he only goes 6'5. simien is gonna cause major problems for uic.
air force v. carolina
falcons will be out to prove they belong. they could very much surprise the way auburn surprised last year after everyone saying they should have been in the NIT. carolina just grossly outclasses air force in athletes. thats obviously not a surprise, but carolina is capable of doing what unlv did to air force in vegas a month ago. unlv ran em to death and won going away. carolina could conceivably go up 15-4 in the first 5:00 and air force would be d-o-n-e and get embarrassed. but if air force lulls roy's boys to sleep with their motion offense....hello upset.
monmouth v. mississippi state
sun tzu- you might be right. monmouth could be an obligatory play based on karma alone. they couldnt possibly fail me.
northern iowa v. georgia tech
panthers have been a money maker for me this year. i love em. but - similar to ill-chicago -- this is a terrible draw for them. tech could kill this team in transition. game is being played in wisconsin, so that helps. but uni would have better been suited with a big east or sec team. tech just way too athletic for them. panthers will be back to the dance in the coming years. mcdermott has turned that program around. but i think they could take an ass-whooping and learn from it
Last edited:
