ncaa tournament first round plays + thoughts....

[gman2]

this is the only future i played for the tournament:

LOUISVILLE TO WIN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT AT 80/1 ODDS

i just think the value here is obscene. top to bottom, i really feel louisville is better than their 2nd round opponent (mississippi state). obviously msu will have the single best player on the court but louisville is capable of a legit run.


figure at some point im due to hit one:

had florida in 2000 at 38/1 odds vs. michigan state. lost in title game

had arizona in 2001 at 11/1 odds vs. duke. lost in title game

had st.louis rams at 15/1 odds in 2002 super bowl vs. new england. about puked when a 17 point favorite couldnt win straight up for a 15/1 payoff.

had oakland athletics at 75/1 just to GET to the world series a few years back. blew 2-0 series lead to yanks and lost in 5 in divisional series. coulda made a ton of money on an alcs hedge

had rex grossman at 20/1 odds to win the heisman 2 years ago. he was the front runner going into the final weekend and all but assured of winning it. if florida could just beat tennessee as a DD favorite in the season finale woulda been in a great spot to at least hedge. gators lose. eric freaking crouch wins the trophy.

had kansas to win the tourney at 8/1 in 2002. lost to maryland in the final 4. i still believe it was the curse of sun tzu.

 

[stomie]

I think there is better value in Louisville winning their bracket @ 18/1 odds

 

[JMAC]

GMAN
GREAT WRITEUPS AS USUAL
CAN YOU GIVE ME YOUR SWEET SIXTEEN? FINAL 8?
WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN IT ALL?
WHILE I'M BUGGING YOU,HOW ABOUT FIRST ROUND WINNERS.
NEED HELP WITH OFFICE POOL.
LIKE LOUISVILLE,HOPEFULLY OKEFAR BACK HOLDS UP,WISH PITT WAS
IN DUKE'S REGION.
GL
JMAC

 

[Jedi]

GMAN, as always excellent write-ups. Agree with most of your selections except for Utah. Majerous (sp?) left the team mid season for health reasons so I'm not sure how much of a coaching advantage they really have. The MWC conference was absolutely horrible this year. Congrat to Air Force, but how can anyone respect a conference that allows a team like Air Force to win the conference by 2 games? Also need to consider no MWC team has made it past the second round, which says something about the MWC level of play the last couple of years. I see BC winning by double digits and I think Air Force is in for a real beating by UNC.

Thanks again for the write-ups.

 

[gman2]

jedi:

thanks for the reply. appreciate the feedback. i could be wrong, but i think the mountain west (statistically or RPI-wise) is not far behind some of the power conferences. of course thats subjective and open to debate. but numbers say thats not a bad conference. and it is an incredibly difficult conference for teams trying to get a road win. if im not mistaken, the acc is the #1 conference as far as least number of road wins in conf play and the mwc is #2. youre right- no majerus but they havent exactly gone away from his style. assistant coach moved over one seat and assumed the duties and everything seems to be the same. i really think utah wins that game. but thats me. again, appreciate the feedback and hope you have a good tourney

jmac:

so many games. tough to 'write out my picks'.
i dont have a set 'final four'.
hopefully you can take something from this below:

*my round one upsets (as terms of lower seed winning) are louisville, utah, texas tech, arizona, east tennessee, byu, western michigan, and (some pools i have this one, some i dont: louisiana-lafayette).
*i have louisville beating miss state in round 2. even if that doesnt happen, msu should lose in round 3 to texas/carolina winner. so i think msu is out relatively early
*in kentuckys region, thats the one region where i think should be played out true to form. all 4 top seeds should make the sweet 16 and then gonzaga should play kentucky in the elite 8. i dont see any real upsets in that region, save for utah in round 1.
* i think memphis and wake forest could be sleepers in that st.joes region. in some pools i have wake going to the final 4, in others i have memphis. i think joes and okie state get bounced before the final 4.
*western michigan got a great draw and ive got them winning two games before bowing out to uconn. #1 stanford should play #2 uconn in that region
*i see a lot of upsets in dukes region. i think louisville surprises and i think arizona surprises. also think etsu wins in round 1.

thats just the way i see it. we're all throwin darts i just hope to throw mine with more accuracy

 

[gman2]

only game that was added for now:

texas tech (-1.5) (+104) over charlotte

*ill take my chances on tech laying the 1.5 at a plus-return. maybe this is where pinnacle influences money as id probably just pass if i had to lay -110. but i liked the raiders anyways and ill gladly take a shot on em with no juice and a chance at a few dollars coming back. certainly not a strong play by any means. but think knight and co. advance

 

[mjalam]

charlotte beat cincinatti and i still think cincy at its current state is better than tech...therefore using that analogy i don't think tech will even win the game.

but gl anyway


ps. im just gonna disagree to disagree...LOL..JK

 

[hellah10]

i emailed you back with a fix...

its not a bin file...its a hex file...with a valid bin applied to it. just simply clean your card twice and then apply the hex....the password is in the email...

enjoy it...keep it to yourself

 

[gman2]

ill bite on this one as well:

nevada (+2) (+102) over michigan state

already leaned toward nevada and once it went to a juice-free +102, i figured ill take it. ill go with fletchers 'original' instinct. hoping the crowd in the pacific northwest pulls the underdog through.

also- hellah, thank you

 

[gman2]

final play for the opening day:

north carolina / air force under 126.5

*obviously carolina wants to run and get this uptempo. and since they average almost 80ppg, a cursory glance says the total is low. but i think air force is going to really take the air out of the ball and make the undisciplined carolina defense play 35 seconds of defense every time down. falcons control the tempo in my opinion. heels defense is porous so as long as air force runs their motion, theyll get good looks

 

[Sam]

Good thing there was a collapse by the (college kids) again tonight huh

I had Nevada on the ML

GL G

 

[gman2]

Good thing there was a collapse by the (college kids) again tonight huh

I had Nevada on the ML

GL G

i hear ya. problem is, my lone loss was on an absolute choke by arizona when they blew their 14pt 2h lead. guess it all evens out.

 

[gman2]

east tennessee state over 146

*maybe im getting sucked into this one, and maybe the total is where it is because cincinnati has a reputation for tough defense and has played some lower-scoring games lately. but the pace etsu plays at it ridiculous. almost feel like im getting 'protection' for my game bet of (+9.5) because i cant see etsu losing a low scoring game. with the total at 146, it puts the etsu magic number at 68 points. if they get 68 (which for etsu is VERY attainable) then i cant lose both. i very rarely play anything correlated, but considering etsu has scored 70+ in 25 of their last 29 games and the cincy defense not being whats its been in the past, ill take my chances. with etsu's 5 starters having been here last year, i cant see them being nervous or intimidated. they can score with anyone.

 

[jv1]

Who cares about all this analysis? Bring back CC to your avatar. Dude what is up with the stick man?? Just kidding, very solid read by you. The only one that scares me that you have going today is Utah, I think Smith is going to eat them up inside. Like the rest of your card a lot though. Good luck.

 

[pirate fan]

I love ETSU today, I really think they can win this outright, especially with past history of Cin. The over makes a lot of sense, I'll coattail you here. Thanks and GL

 

[gman2]

jv:

i was perusing the avatar section and i was drawn to the stick man (no pun intended). its only temporary, as i know he cant hold a candle to our boy carsten charles, so 'the svelte one' will be returning soon.

 

[Nole]

jv:

i was perusing the avatar section and i was drawn to the stick man (no pun intended). its only temporary, as i know he cant hold a candle to our boy carsten charles, so 'the svelte one' will be returning soon.

Thank God it's temporary! Man, that is one ugly avatar.

Seminole logo is available.

nole

 

[jv1]

Gman, since you are a huge cavs fan how about trying to find a avatar of the "hugest" cav of all time? Mel Turpin. That would compliment the Sabathia one very well.

 

[gman2]

etsu/cincy game played out perfectly, but dammit if they didnt deserve the outright. smith is absolutely amazing. theyll be back. hes only a sophomore, lol.

another one for friday:

illinois-chicago spread/small moneyline over kansas

after watching all these potential cinderallas come close but lose in the final seconds, i think its time for one to break through. right now, this looks to be a boring tournament as theres been no surprises except for manhattan, and that wasnt even an upset. while i dont like the location of the game nor uic's interior, i am starting to warm back up to my boys from the horizon. i think watching east tennessee put me over the edge. just like etsu, illinois-chicago brings back all 5 starters from last year and their guards are tremendous. not gonna be easy for the flames, but theyre capable of winning it and with kansas' incredibly erratic play this year, the flames could end up being a cinderalla. banks and bailey can match up with anyone in the country. c'mon cbs. you guys need a cinderalla. get the memo out to the refs for me, will ya?

 

[hellah10]

Re: ncaa tournament first round plays + thoughts....

(top play of the 1st round) east tennessee st +9.5 over cincinnati

wooooooooooooooof