update on underdogs

[verbalkint]

'I know it will change,,,but that just proved my point....

baseball is an underdog moneymaker

has worked well for me the last 9 years.....dogs have NEVER had a losing year (units) since that time i started gambling'


this system works
the reasons 1 you have already covered, overinflated faveorites.
2all things in natuure tend to become random.. A law of nature, yes there i s a reason newton 'invented' this law because it is true, and basevall is a terific example of this law..
this law essentially insures underdogs [++] will win in the long term. to win just assure a random result with udogs doesnt even have to be close to 50/50 in order to hve a positive expectation.

 

[grey]

from your experience, when do the dogs usually start to lose the power in the season?

 

[grey]

...and how big are your units? it seems you'd have to wager a decent amount to turn a profit.

 

[Stag]

grey...

I stick to 100 bucks a game. That turns in a few grand profit each year.
You cannot change this midyear.......I have tried that before and have gotten burned . Remember, faves can go 15-0 on any given day.
If I had balls (and a high-paying job), I would play each dog for a grand.......but one bad day or week would wipe out a bank roll (for me at least).
I'm considering playing each dog for $500 starting next year...the key is not getting off to a horrible start.
Dogs usually bark well the first month of the season......as there are many surprise teams that Vegas is late to catch up on, and also many disappointments (teams that are supposed to be really good and struggle out of the gate).
In September, less dogs hit, but it is all relative because there prices are much higher...especially for teams out of playoff contention and trying out rookies. It's not uncommon to see +300 dogs win that time of year...although less frequently, of course.

I really think books know underdog betting is the way to go......but they think NOBODY has the discipline to purchase 15 tickets each day on teams that are SUPPOSED to lose.

 

[Hoops]

I find that one hard to believe, that taking all dogs for the last nine seasons has turned a profit:shrug:
B]

It hasn't.

 

[Stag]

yes it has....with shopping for best lines at the right books.

I cannot offer proof...I wish I could.

But HOOPS, where is your proof?

 

[Stag]

actually...if anybody wants to go through a database (like the one at COVERS) and spend several hours crunching the numbers, you can have the proof. I don't have the time.
However, just remember, their closing line is not even close to the best prices you can get from shopping at underdog books (like Pinnacle)

 

[grey]

so this is kind of an all-season long or nothing type thing?

 

[toastonastick]

What were your profits for those years using a $100 unit?

Highest?
Lowest?
Average?

Just curious not questioning you.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Juice.........who would you consider the dog if a team is favored on the early line, but is a dog by gametime. Would you just wash the game out in this situation? Or what if a team is fluctuating like dog/fave/dog. Or fave/dog/fave . What if both sides are like -105? And lastly, are there any cut off points.............like no play at more than +300 or maybe no plays at less than +102 or 103, the logic being that they are a dog by only the smallest of maybe a too small margin?
We have a local radio sports show guy who plays a mythical $100 on every dog each nite, weekdays only, tho. The results are given the next nite............Ok for chat, but has little relevance if it is not charted with an ongoing season total...........which it is not.
GL.................THE HITMAN

 

[Stag]

yes....
all-season...every dog......everyday

umm.....best year..........about $11,000
worst year........about $1,800
average............about $5,500

 

[Stag]

Hitman...those are great questions......

One team HAS to be + something. In other words, if TEAM A is -106 and TEAM B is -102...I do not touch that game. NEVER lay money.
However, there are probably going to be certain times during the day when either Team A or Team B fluctuates into an underdog role (+ something). That's when I will take the + team. If neither team ever becomes a true underdog (+ something) while I am checking the lines, I will not take that game. This doesn't happen very often, and the difference between playing this situation and not playing this game at year's end would be very small.
And let's say the Marlins are playing the Reds, for example......If the Marlins start off as +103 dogs, and I am making my bets at that time...I will play the Marlins at +103. Let's say that later in the day the Reds go to +101 dogs, I will not change it. I'l still have the Marlins at +103. I don't have time to sit in front of the computer all day (who does?!). So, I will just take the first dog I see. The point is, you are always getting back MORE than you have wagered.
Also. BIG dogs have been the best profit makers...I love when I see several dogs at +250 or +320. Bullpens suck and the faves sometimes lose. And our winning percentage needed for those games is very small.

WARNING: Do not try this system if you do not have more than 3 good underdog books. One of them MUST be Pinnacle....lowest juice (house advantage) in the industry....we essentially become the bookie, while Joe Public pounds the "better" team.

Price shopping is the key! Why take a dog at +166 when you can get them at +172??! It adds up BIG TIME each day.

 

[verbalkint]

believe me this guy is rite!
any data analysis would be irrelevent, since lines are contantly changing.
if you were to take the time too shop you would be very rich at the end of a few months because succes would be assured.
remember 50% is a big winner and random results will make all things 50% in the long term

quote "stick to 100 bucks a game. That turns in a few grand profit each year. "
easier to take a % of bak for each play then the amount increases proportionaly w/ bank....

'You cannot change this midyear.......I have tried that before and have gotten burned . Remember, faves can go 15-0 on any given day.'

wager 1/20 of bank or 5% so you can withstand 20 losses in a row... the best there ever was has yet to pic 10 in arow but then to be consevative i doubled it.''

'..but one bad day or week would wipe out a bank roll (for me at least). '
dont need balls just big bank $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

.

 

[verbalkint]

bettor yet dont believe me.

 

[Stag]

OK....15 games on tap for today.....15 plays I made.

I use 3 books right now (Pinnacle, Canbet, and 5dimes)

Here is who I took:

Toronto +122
Tampa Bay +154
Kansas City +153
Florida +112
Pittsburgh +127
Houston +114
Cincy +109
Montreal +141
Milwaukee +157
ChiSox +160
Detroit +187
Colorado +108
Seattle +131
Texas +150
San Diego +156

These are the BEST prices I could find when I sat down to place my wagers. The prices might move either for or against me. That's life. But I have a life to live and I can't watch price movement 24/7.
However, i KNOW I did GREAT shopping and will save (or earn) tons of extra cash each day and each year by playing at the right books!

Heck...dogs might go 0-15 today. I am not trying to show you a winning Wednesday. I am just trying to show you fine Madjackers a system I use that has worked for me. It's like cutting coupons and being very frugal. Why not shop and save money?

 

[toastonastick]

found this at another site. I cant take the credit, but it along the same lines


Thru April 18 if you played against the largest daily over 200 OPENING LINE favorite in each league you would be + 14.3 units.

NL Favs 3 wins 5 losses
4/5 St Louis -215 L
4/6 Arizona -230 L
4/8 St Louis -200 L
4/12 Chicago -210 L
4/15 Chicago -200 W
4/16 Houston -250 W
4/17 Chicago -240 L
4/18 Houston -250 W


AL Favs 4 wins 5 losses
4/5 Toronto -250 L
4/6 Yankees -215 L
4/7 Oakland -230 L
4/8 Yankees -240 W
4/9 Yankees -230 L
4/11 Yankees -230 W
4/13 Oakland -200 W
4/14 Yankees -280 W
4/15 Boston -210 L

 

[Stag]

as an example of how much money you can save by shopping each day at the best dog books...............I just checked the prices for tonight's games at 5 "square" books. Books that have 20 cent straddles and are horrible for baseball wagering.

There is an average of a 15 cent difference on each game with these horrible books. (locals could be even worse). Let's say dogs go 6-9 tonight and every night.....(a bad night....just 40 percent winners)....6 wins x 15 bucks difference each game would be $90 lost by not shopping tonight.
$90 per night times 7 days a week is $630 saved (or wasted) each week. I will give naysayers the benefit of the doubt and drop that number all the way to $400 each week because there are not 15 games each night, obviously.
25 weeks in a baseball season x $400 each week saved...and the difference is $10,000 each year....just by shopping and using good books.
And this is just a measily $100 bet on each game!!
Let's notf orget that i am being generous with my calculations that dogs will win only 40 perecnt of all games....in fact, dogs hit over 45 percent of all games

 

[LasVegasErnie]

Make your dogs a minmium +1.50 you should see an increase in your ROI. Works for me.

 

[slvrblet]

80% OF GAMBLERS LOSE MONEY

WE ALL KNOW THIS

80% OF GAMBLERS BET FAVORITES

DO THE MATH


JUST A BULLET OF WISDOM

 

[THE HITMAN]

Thanks for your answer, Juice. I know my questions were a bit trivial. Yes, I do shop around..........alot. It just makes good sense to do so. GL