if you're losing lately or not winning enough

[MadJack]

let's all pitch in and figure out WHY!

let's all help the guys that might be struggling or the ones that might not be profiting the way they really want to.

no need to bash the ones on a bad streak, let's throw our 2 cents in to help. talk to your fellow member like you would your own brother. we're all in this together.

this place isn't for chest thumping and bashing a guy when he's down. it's to help ourselves and each other.

are you having bad luck? it happens.

do you think you're missing something?

bad money management?

blindly following someone else but losing? not their fault but there are reasons even if they are winning.

using a bad system?

hell, there could be a million reasons why. so, if you're not afraid of constructive criticism, ask some questions and let's all pitch in with our opinions.

i'm learning all the time and usually find something i didn't know or forgot by reading the forums. this place can and will make you money.

let's get serious now.

thanks

 

[ChrryBlstr]

hey, jack!!!

well....after a torrid start....things have been going downhill and fast!!!

probably playing way too many games....but....a lot of the losses have been tough beats....too many runners left on base, errors, etc....all a part of baseball!!!

while still playing with the book's man....i figure that i can afford to take chances....although the smart thing to do would probably be to cut back and down on the number of plays....but....it's a long season....and hopefully, things get back on track!!!

plus....i'm definitely streaky as all hell....so....hoping that i get things turned around and that a winning streak is just around the corner!!!

good luck everyone!!!

 

[coolgi424]

MJ...I'm relatively new on the betting scene but I'm beginning to understand it pretty well. As far as the over/under bets go, doesn't the home plate umpire play an important part. If Pedro or Clemens is pitching to an old school national league umpire they are bound to pitch well. Is there a way to find out which umpires will be behind the plate at any given game and subsequently the approximate size of their strike zone? This is one area that I haven't seen any handicapper talk about on the forum...

Thanks for all the help.

CB...I've been playing along with you...hang in there buddy..it will turn around!

Coolgi

 

[DJTranks]

The best way to make profit is to not play many games, play 3-4 or even 1-2 a day and keep it narrowed down to the best games you like and you will see a big improvement, IMO!!

 

[giambi]

I fade myself and usually do pretty good

 

[gsp]

coolgi424, you find the umps 30 min to 1hr ahead of the game at MLB.com/gameday. Once the first game of the series is played, Covers will list the ump that is supposed to be behind the plate for the rest of that series.

Tank is absolutely right. Pick your best plays for the day and stick to them. If there's only one then that's all there is for that day. The secret is not how many winners you play but how many losers you play. 500 winners and 450 losers don't make as much money as 50 winners and 0 losers. I like to have 2 or three plays that I feel strong about and straight bet them. I then par them for 1/2 or 1 unit. I don't like straight betting a fav over 150 but will add one to a two team par if I feel it is strong enough for a straight bet.

 

[StonesThrow]

Nice post Jack, that is what you set this site up for and to lead by example is, just beautiful. Makes for a quality site, and for the long haul

 

[IE]

i don't think you will go much under 50% with plus money all the time and thats all you will need over a month to fatten the bankroll, by checking a couple places out each day of the season:

play on + money teams only

after checking out to see if your dog has a better record than the fav

here

and your starter has a higher rating VORP than opponent in the far right had column than fav's starter


here

basically getting better team and better starter at + money...

peavy is a play today with + money....
and its close with garland but only if he is getting + money.

 

[2good]

You are so right MJ. I'm in the post almost 2 year and this year I'm in should a slump. I'm afraid to post my bets. I don't want my bad luck to spread out on the Madjack post.

I want everybody to make money and become bookie killers.

The line is been wracky lately.

I just can't figure out with the calculating moneyline and pitching status.

Just look at the game right now on COL vs CUB.

The pitching matchup clearly favor on COL and they are getting kill out there.

I know the big boys (in Vegas) want to win when they know the money is heavy on one side.

We are just plain suckers!! GL to all you winners and better luck for us loser:shrug:

 

[IE]

2good, how did you come up with colorado having a pitching advantage...just curious.....thanks

quote"The pitching matchup clearly favor on COL and they are getting kill out there. "end of quote

 

[2good]

Goto ESPN MLB Friday Pitching Probables.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/probables


COL
S. Estes W-L 4-1 ERA. 5.60
Last 3 games W-L 2-0 ERA 6.88

CUB
C. Zambrano W-L 2-1 ERA. 2.78
Last 3 games W-L 1-1 ERA. 3.72

Wins and Losses is a big margin but the ERA is not bad at all when compared.

 

[Pretender]

Thanks Mad Jack I look forward to write ups Try to Cap myself
Doing great on NBA Not that great at Baseball
Any way what I wanted to say Is Mad Jacks is a class site
and tons of great people. I ran into Mad Jacks begining of 2002 NFL Hey Its my first stop when I get out of work
Lot of great cappers tons of write-ups and all around great sports talk
Would like to know what happen to G-man That guy was the bomb along with Hellah To many of you guys to metion
Props to You All

 

[giambi]

a couple things I follow

a couple things I follow

I dunno if anyone has ever read betting the bases by mike lee but he has trends to follow and I think they are pretty good trends a couple I really like are:

when a team wins 3 in a row the are playing well and alot of the time win the 4th( and sometimes ride it out)***** this is my favorite one******

when a team losses 3 in a row bet against them ( this one I don't like as much but it is still pretty good)

pitcher rematch -when the pitchers face each other the very next start take the loser from the 1st time around ( I don't like this one as much as I used to because of interleague it seems like it always happens now)

Takin the pitcher on his very 1st start up in the big leagues

 

[sharky17]

Giambi.....I'm sure I missed you, but Happy Birthday.

I know :topic: , but it's the guy's birthday......

 

[giambi]

thanks sharky how did you know that????????..........................Ok I figured it out but I was freaked out a lil I had a couple cervesas and was wonderin if I knew you thanks again I really appreciate that

 

[sharky17]

Hey, no problem....I even know you're 32. If I had some magical way of knowing this, I wouldn't have bet Peavy and the Padres tonight, and I probably wouldn't have bet the A's who are tied 5-5 in the seventh right now. When you go the the "Message Fourm" page, it lists the daily birthdays at the bottom. Hope you had a good one. :toast:

Sharky

 

[yyz]

I advocate sticking with a couple of teams. Follow them with force, and pound them when they are in a good spot, and fade them when they are not!

Sounds simple, and it really is. It doesn't take 300+ games a season to make money. Make a few bucks a week, and be happy.

 

[PaTsJaMM]

Don't bet the run line! Ever!

I swear it gets me all the time. I tell myself I will never bet the runline then see a good team with a good pitcher going against a stiff on a losing team and I fall for it every time. I see that big fat (-1.5) +185 and tell myself that there's NO WAY Team A doesn't blow Team B out by more than 5 runs then find myself in a situation where they are tied going into the bottom of the 9th and I know then that I'm fawked. I swear no exaggerating that I've bet this scenario like 15 times so far and only remember winning twice!

Betting dogs works much better....

 

[caught up]

own worst enemy?

own worst enemy?

i had legit winners--maybe not for usual legit reasons, but put all my eggs in the WRONG basket. instead of pullin the trigger on leans--went with what seemed best. guess thats why they were mid-to big favs then, huh? reall tough feelin confident there
more often than not, i usually leave 2-3 winners on paper, and the ones i fall in love with which i end up playin (payin for), either win by some flukish miracle, or outright lose--which obviously sux. i tell myself, more disicipline. dont get greedy. be humble. thats what i need to do....so right now, where do i find myself? i'm eyeing schilling BOS, hows that for starters??? heres the recipe for disaster: curt at -200+, cant have 3 bad outings, right? and should he win as one thinx, one then too would figure it doesnt remain a close one like yesterday--so then runline???--or is that jus wishful thinking? can the yanks lose three straight to the likes of usually offensively challenged OAK, SEA and SEA again??? granted SEA playin better than their woeful begin of the YR. but the yanks, they should break out right? <(this is actually me riding having to pay for the two previous losses--should i cut mine for now, on them--but if i do, they'll win, right?) mussina? :shrug: heres a surprise---big fav again, ANA--cant see these bats bein kept in check two games in a row by TB pitching. colon though, is on again, off again. the only thing scares me here is the streak ANA riding high on now. that said, right there^ are 3 big favs, will all three win?--i doubtit--but wheres the loser(s)??? as far as bats go--where were STlouis' yesterday? now today would makeit two games in a row VS MTL???? i dont see it--but i dont have enough faith in marquis to pull trigger. you know,as much as i like to think i know whats up--i had no idea the alvarez listed for LA yesterday was wilson alvarez from way back when CWS days. not that it woulda solidified a play either way--jus pertinent info escaped me is all. i guess i try to take a look at where the teams are coming from, and where their haeds might be at---then too, what their bullpenes look like--or if i see them needin'em. if i posted leans--i'd be golden, but as it usually goes--the plays are the ones that matter. GL guys.

great post btw.

talk to your fellow member like you would your own brother

hits home more than one knows--as is my older brother that first got me started (FB cards) but for whatever reason, never wants to talk too much shop when it comes to whats hes playin and why. and here i am thinkin we'd cancel each other out jus perfectly too! thanx again jack. good post, great forum.

 

[Pretender]

IE2002 thanks for the info Baseball Prospectus Awesome
Thanks to all