RedSheet Newsletter
Message: AUGUST 31, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 1
Fresno State 31 - WASHINGTON 24 - (5:30 EDT - Sunday) -- Line opened at Washington minus 4?, and
is now minus 3?. The Huskies are in off their first non-bowl season since 1994, as they
needed a home upset of WashingtonSt in '03's regular season finale, to avoid a losing
campaign. They lose ten starters from a year ago, including QB Pickett, who at times
carried the squad on his back. This is a bit of a rebuilding year for Washington, while the
Bulldogs of Fresno return 17 starters from last year's bowl squad (winner over MichSt), are
led by QB Pinegar, along with all down linemen. The Bulldogs have proven over again that
they can more than compete with the powers, & open impressively in this one.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 89
Memphis 34 - MISSISSIPPI 27 - (6:00) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 3? & is still minus 3?. The
departure of Reb QB Manning is, of course, the most important sidebar in this matchup. His
presence provided an intangible which elevated the play of his team mates, & despite the
confidence in Spurlock (his replacement), a definite drop in offensive production can't be
prevented. And defensively, just 4 starters return. Not the case with the Tigers, who return
11 offensive starters, including QB Wimprine, who stung the Rebs for 355 yds & 3 TDs in
LY's 10-pt win over OleMiss. Note the other 2 losses suffered by the Rebs in '03 came by 3
pts to LSU, & by 4 pts to TexTech. As in game above, wrong team is favored.
RATING: MEMPHIS 89
VANDERBILT 30 - South Carolina 22 - (12:30) -- Line opened at SoCarolina minus 6, and is now minus 4?.
Do you discern a pattern here? Similar to our Superior choices, the Commodores of Vandy
return a bevy off starters: 21-of-22 to be exact, including all 11 defensive stalwarts. Sure,
the Gamecocks should be improved, offensively, with Holtz taking over that unit, but USC
ranked 82nd in the land in scoring a year ago, so the climb to respectability is a bit steep, &
note that there is nary a green starter on that Vandy "D". The 'Dores rolled up 456 yds & 25
FDs vs the 'Cocks a year ago, with QB Cutler tossing for 319 yds & 3 TDs, thus moving it
shouldn't be a problem here. We'll take the small spot again.
RATING: VANDERBILT 88
Ohio State 24 - CINCINNATI 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 17, and is now minus 15?. The
fabled Buckeye program has been a study in efficiency the past 2 seasons, winning 25-of-
27 games, as well as finishing #1 & #4 in the land. Their talent is rarely matched, & despite
losing 13 starters from a year ago, they are deep again. However, they no longer have the
leadership of QB Krenzel, who was made it all work. And in the trenches, OSt has lost 6-of-
9 starters. The Bearcats gave the Bucks all that they could handle 2 years ago, losing a
heartbreaker in Columbus, in the final 4 minutes. Cincy is rarely out of a contest, & with 9
offensive starters back, including QB Guidugli, should stay close again.
RATING: CINCINNATI 88
RUTGERS 24 - Michigan State 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, and is now minus 6. Yet
another game, which sees us on the side of an early week money move (check below). The
Knights, of course, are not among collegiate elites, not enjoying a winning season since 7-
4 in '92. But, although they went 5-7 SU a year ago, it was a vast improvement from '02,
when the Knights managed but a single win. Not only that, but Rutgers posted the best
spread record in the nation: 10-1-1, coming within 4 pts from a 12-0 sweep. The Knights
return 16 starters, including QB Hart (2,714 PYs in '03), & 8 other offensive vets. The loss of
QB Smoker may be a bit much to overcome for the Spartans. Call the upset.
RATING: RUTGERS 88
PURDUE 44 - Syracuse 17 - (1:30 Sunday) -- Line opened at Purdue minus 13, and is now minus 12. We
came within a whisker of having a 6-of-6 underdog sweep of our featured releases this
week, but the Boilers eventually won out as our final choice. Tiller has worked his offensive
magic since arriving at West Lafayette in '97 (7 consecutive bowl rewards), with competitiveness
the hallmark of his squads. Eight starters return from that unit, including QB
Orton, who is the early choice for BigTen's "Offensive Player of the Year". The 'Cuse has
become an annual disappointment in the recruiting wars, with the result a floundering program
(1 bowl in 4 years), & is going with green QBing here. Spread not high enuff.
RATING: PURDUE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Miami-Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado State -- The NFL Begins Next Week.
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): WestVirginia (-26? to -28?); Cincinnati (+17 to +15?);
Vanderbilt (+6 to +4?); OklahomaSt (+2? to +1); New Mexico (+2? to +1?); Rutgers (+7 to +6); New
MexicoSt (+21 to +20); Iowa (-28 to -29); Syracuse (+13 to +12); FresnoSt (+4? to +3?) -- TIME CHANGES:
Rutgers/MichiganSt: now 3:30; WestVa/ECaro: now 6:00; Clemson/WkForest: now 3:30; Mich/MiamiOhio:
now Noon; PennSt/Akron: now 3:30; Wisconsin/CentFla: now Noon; Vandy/SoCarolina: now 12:30; Uab/
Baylor: now 7:00; Kansas/Tulsa: now 7:00; Calif/AirForce: now Noon; Oklahoma/BG: now Noon; ColoSt/
Colo: now 8:00; MissSt/Tulane: now 6:00; Lsu/OregonSt: now 6:00; Stanford/SanJoseSt: now 10:00......
RED SHEET ONLINE RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
