ncaa football (saturday october 23rd) ......

[gman2]

• big :firing: central michigan / toledo over 61.5
• ball state (+10) over akron
• miami (-7) over nc state
• ohio state / indiana under 45.5
  
• friday: colorado state (-4.5) over wyoming
  
• add: western michigan (+20) over northern illinois
• add: western michigan 2nd half (+8)

if we know nothing else about akron, its that they are consistently inconsistent. and theyre in a poor spot saturday night against ball state. this game is sandwiched between an away game down in orlando (ucf) and with a huge game on deck -- a friday night espn game with marshall. this weekend's game just screams 'clunker' for the zips. as a casual zips fan, id like to see them go into the marshall game playing well and in mac east contention. but i just think were gonna get a perfunctory effort from akron against nut state. its 'the akron way'. just when you start to think theyre turning the corner, they have an inexplicably poor game. ball state is certainly no prize, but qb stinson is finally starting to settle in a little and get the freshman jitters behind him. and after games the last few weeks against two of the 'mac elite' (bg and toledo), akron's mediocre defense should be a welcome sight to the ball state offense. i know this game sorta flies under the radar with all the great night games that are on the card for saturday, but i think the cards are a nice double-digit dog here. akron is 3-1 in the mac but their 3 wins came against buffalo, kent, and central florida (who are a combined 2-18 this season). so im not sure theyre a legit chalk. zips may very well cover, but id be really surprised if ball state doesnt play well here and always be within backdoor-range (if not closer)

waiting to see if the miami line drops to 7 at any books before i play it. i really think miami rolls here. many think the canes were 'exposed' last thursday night. i dont buy it. i prefer to just give louisville a lot of credit- they really played well. to me, ncstate's offense is just really lame, and i cant see davis moving the ball against the canes defense. ncstate just doesnt score enough to be a truly live dog. theres no doubt the crowd is gonna be a big boost to the 'pack early, but the canes have been in these games many, many times. i think 20 is the magic number for miami. if they can put twenty on the board, they cover. i think that louisville game was just what the canes needed - a little scare before traveling to a tough acc venue. the dynamic of this game would be totally different if miami rolled louisville. instead, i think miami does to ncstate what fsu did to virginia -- dominate the line of scrimmage and make a defensive statement.

two terrible offenses going at one another in this one. smith getting the start for osu, but i really dont see how its going to matter when he has no playmakers to throw the ball to, no playmakers to hand the ball off to, and an unreliable offensive line. even though bucks fans are getting restless and are expecting more points on the board, i dont see tressel all the sudden throwing the ball all over the place in this kid's first start. the under has been a cash machine in this series. 6 of the L7 have played under and 8 of the L10. the sad thing is, if indiana plays a clean game and doesnt make mistakes to give osu free points, they stand a reasonable shot to win in the 4th quarter. homecoming game for ohio state. i dont think theyre gonna do anything to excite the crowd on offense. i think we will see osu try to get back to basics on defense and dominate that side of the ball. indy hasnt scored more than 17 pts on ohio state in over a decade.

 

[budhachi]

Hey gman2...I'm loving the 1st half line of Tol-14 (@olym)...

Stats to back it up Toledo at Home scores an average of 21.7 points per half...CMich on the road hava a dismall 2.0 points per half and 9.0 points per game (on the road!)

YOU ARE THE MAC GURU...what do you think the value in a HT play?

gl on the total

budha

 

[taoist]

...believe it or not I have Cent Mich coming up as a possible play this week plus the points. :scared Any thoughts on the side gman? Thanks in advance.

 

[wolfpacker97]

Hey gman2...I'm loving the 1st half line of Tol-14 (@olym)...

Stats to back it up Toledo at Home scores an average of 21.7 points per half...CMich on the road hava a dismall 2.0 points per half and 9.0 points per game (on the road!)

YOU ARE THE MAC GURU...what do you think the value in a HT play?

gl on the total

budha

Last Saturday's game showed me that a lot of people lost money on the first half.

 

[gman2]

wolfpacker/taoist:
the side in this game is so incredibly tough. the linesmaker has clearly wised up and jacked toledo lines. what we'll find out saturday is whether or not the jacked line matters. the 'value' in this game is absolutely with central michigan. but going anti-toledo right now is tantamount to putting a pistol in your mouth and pulling the trigger: its suicide.

central michigan (similar to akron) is a complete enigma. there are so many things that they do well, its head-scratching that theyre sitting at 2-5 right now. a lot of it is attributed to youth. theyre a young team that has so much potential, but theyre still going through growing pains and an adjustment period with kelly at head coach.

heres what i like about central michigan --- they can move the football. they have offensive playmakers. seymour is the best running back in the mac right now and theyve finally settled on smith at qb and he is a solid run/pass threat. so every time you bet central michigan, youre betting on a dog that can move the football and is very talented offensively.

the problem with central michigan is they are just making too many mistakes this year that have turned close games into runaways. there is simply no correlation between the final scores of their games and the stats within that game.

indiana 41 central michigan 10

indy dominated, right?
not exactly.
central michigan puts up almost 400 total yards and outgains the hooisers in total offense and first downs. seymour rushes for 122 yards. yet the final score shows a 31 point difference.

what happened?
* indiana scores one touchdown on a 97-yard interception return for a touchdown.
* cmu gets picked off inside their own 20, allowing indiana to drive all of 16 yards for a touchdown
* indiana averaged 44 yards on 3 kick returns, making for some more short fields


bowling green 38 central michigan 14

cmu was stuffed all day, right?
not exactly.
central michigan rings up 401 yards of total offense and does a great job of balancing the run and pass. cmu as a team rushes for 200+ yards, and seymour accounts for 168 of them. cmu loses by 24 points.

what happened?
* well cmu got destroyed by the pass. so their secondary certainly contributed to the rout and bg outclassed them. but cmu did a helluva lot to hurt their chances to keep it close
* cmu gets an 85-yard touchdown pass called back because of an ineligible man downfield.
* cmu had it first and goal on the bg 9 and threw and interception.
* cmu fails to convert a 4th and inches inside the bg 25

northern illinois 42 central michigan 10

huskies cruised to a cakewalk win, right?
not really.
this 42-10 final was 7-3 at halftime.

so where did this game get away from central michigan? probably with one of the worst stretches of 5:00 of football you can imagine.

* central michigan down 7-3 at halftime.
* northern illinois hits a 60-yd pass play right out of halftime to stretch it to 14-3.
* on the ensuing kickoff, central michigan fumbles the football. northern illinois recovers and scores a TD to go up 21-3.
* cmu stalls the next possession on the niu 25, turns the ball over and allows niu to mount a drive that made the game 28-3.

7-3 at halftime
28-3 with 9:00 left in the 3rd quarter.

they played niu pretty evenly for 3 and a half quarters. the game became a blowout in a 5:00 span right out of halftime.


if you take anything from all this, let it be that cmu is not an underdog that cant move the football. thats not the case at all. seymour is averaging 140 yards on the ground. the offense is moving the ball effectively. but they just dont know how to win yet. they dont know how to take care of the football inside their own territory sometimes. they have busted kick coverages that allow the opposition to start with half a field.

weve all bet underdogs over the course of a season that are just abysmal on offense and just stand no chance of moving the ball consistently. cmu isnt one of those teams. theyll move the ball up and down the field with no problem. but you will be ripping your friggin hair out when they make the most boneheaded mistakes that allow close games to get away from them.

taoist -- if you take the plunge on cmu, you will be betting on a team thats getting 24 points and can easily cover that number if they play a clean game. you wont be betting a dog that will be going 3-and-out every possession and then pray they can stop toledo from scoring. seymour is chunking away yards this season and hes been putting up 160 yds a game against good defenses. toledo's run defense isnt the best in the world. but you will also be betting on a team that could be down 17-14 one minute and then 38-14 less than a quarter later. thats just the way this team is. they do so many good things, but negate them by fu/cking up in critical situations.

wolfpacker -- if you decide to lay the chalk with toledo, you will be backing a team that is absolutely on fire right now. this is their homecoming game, which probably means its unlikely they will start slow like they did vs. ohio last weekend. cmu's weakness is in the secondary and thats not good when youre facing a guy like gradkowski who has is completing 80% of his passes lately and putting up obscene numbers. however, you will be laying significant chalk against a team who is capable of running the football against toledo's run defense.

hopefully the above helped in some way. i dont have an opinion on the side in this game. cmu is that enigmatic. im playing the over because im very confident that toledo will be looking strike quick after a lethargic first half last weekend and cmu got destroyed by bowling green's passing game 2 weeks ago. but im also confident that cmu will do their share of scoring to push the total over the number. to me, this is a game that i think is likely gonna end up around 49-27.

 

[Irish]

Always respect your plays and information. Good write-up. I will have to look into this game. Might just take your word for it!

GL
Irish

 

[BigSlick]

Excellent write-up.

I will step away from Toledo minus the points, but may try to tease them with the over...

 

[Ndfan]

suprised on your miami pick. I was going to take ncstate, but might want to reconsider. Why do you think that miami is the play?

 

[spang]

Hey G,

Very nice read on CMU. When I pull up the MAC boxes every sunday morning, I just scratch my head and say WTF happened to the Chipps nearly every week.

I am off of the Zips this week after taking another L last week on CFU. I understand your reasoning on Ball St. this week, but all of the inconsistencies that you have mentioned surely make this contest not worthy of a wager for me. HOWEVER, I am really looking forward to seeing the opening number when the Herd comes to town. We all remember what happened when Byron and the boys came in a couple of years back in the game that saved Owens job for a season. If the Zips are catching a nice number vs.Marshall I think it could be a great night, so I'll just sit and wait.

Good luck with your BSU play.

 

[gman2]

colorado state (-4.5) over wyoming

csu is sitting at 2-4, but i think that record is a little misleading. the first three weeks of the season, they played a brutal schedule. at rival colorado, followed by southern cal, and then minnesota. meanwhile, cowboys have gotten a little fat on a home-heavy schedule but have been outscored 55-13 in two road games this year. wyoming has never been a good traveler -- theyve lost 16 straight games on the road in the MWC. cowboys also very susceptible to the pass, and thats not good against colorado state. rams fling it around quite a bit and are 9th in the nation in the passing game at just under 300 ypg. (wyoming defense 95th/117 vs. pass). rams are in a rebuilding year, but lubbick's teams have always been great in october and november (37-12 in october under sonny -- that tells me his teams progress, not regress). wyoming's lame play on the road juxtaposed with csu's october success makes a good enough case for me to lay the 4.5. hanie did some good things when he was pressed into duty last week, so im not too worried about him in his first start. wyoming defense not good enough to put a scare into the frosh.

 

[wox11]

GL GAMN!! IM ACTUALLY LOOKING AT NC STATE THIS WEEK :scared

REALLY LIKE THE BALL ST. PLAY :clap:

 

[gman2]

just some local articles on these mac games for saturday. maybe some of it can help.

one thing thats glaring that i cant believe i forgot was that this is a huge revenger for ohio university. bowling green laid a 72-21 ass beating on ou in their last meeting. bg holds a significant offensive advantage, but ohio u. has a way of controlling clock and grinding out games at home this season. if this game somehow goes to 14.5, i will be grabbing ohio u. simply on principle. bowling green is really valued out right now. laying 2 TDs in athens is a little much, especially since falcons have struggled there in the past.

cmu/toledo articles:
http://www.mlive.com/chippewas/sanews/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1098457012291720.xml
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041022/SPORTS11/410220412/-1/SPORTS

bowling green/ohio articles:
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041022/SPORTS03/410220339
http://www.ohiobobcats.com/sports/football/release.asp?RELEASE_ID=2795

 

[kneifl]

Thanks for CSU yesterday, you should jump on board with me and get a little Kansas State action today!

kneifl

 

[lineguy]

Gman ive seen you back up the Toledo Rockets the past couple of weeks.

I am considering taking them this week - the big line.
I was wondering if it would be wise to take them in the 1st half -14 instead of laying the big points and getting drilled by a late score (backdoor).

I believe that Gradkowski is playing great football as evidence of his recent performances.(nearly 70% comp. percentage).My only ? is weather they will wanna run up the score against this Cent. Michigan team

 

[gman2]

lineguy:

did a writeup on this toledo game above. in sum - ive done well with toledo this season, but cant back them here. theyre absolutely capable of winning in a rout. but cmu moved the ball on both bowling green and northern illinois in the L2 weeks and its likely they will have enough chances to score against the toledo defense that both the 1h and game lines are equally as risky. not trying to talk you out of anything, because i can see toledo winning by 30. but too many points in both 1h/game to give a team like cmu who has some offensive playmakers (whether or not that will translate to pts remains to be seen). from a toledo perspective, id be worried about the fact that rockets are suspect vs the run and cmu's seymour has gone over 100 yds in something like his L15 games or so.

 

[gjn23]

nota good start:

a 1 hour first quarter
7-8 combined 3rd down conversions
250+ combined yards
21 points from osu-ind
NEXT

 

[gman2]

gjn: no, not a good start. osu looks like a completely different team with smith. and indiana is much worse than i thought.

western michigan (+20) over northern illinois
and because the stars are aligned: a small shot on wmu (+900)

wmu has been inexplicably lame this year, but i just dont see northern as essentially 3 TDs better on any field, let alone on the road, where theyve let up a lot of points this year. wmu is young in the secondary, but northern illinois is not going to test it much. theyre gonna pound wolfe for most of the game. if nothing else, wmu has a pretty effective passing game and culbit has been pretty good throwing it around the last few games. also, northern has been pretty sloppy in their L2 games. they've only played well in 3 of their L8 quarters (the 1st half vs. central florida and the 3rd quarter vs. central michigan). i could be dead ass wrong and wmu could get taken behind the woodshed, but the more i look at this game, the more i think wmu has a realistic shot.

 

[gjn23]

opps...forgot we had the under in a big ten game.....unders are always in play!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

congrats on the morning win. rode your coattails.

 

[gman2]

i guess im a glutton for punishment, but gimmie western michigan (+8) for the 2nd half. northern illinois has put up nintendo numbers in the 1st half, but theyve had trouble holding leads. wmu has the most pathetic defense ive ever seen, but their offense is actually much better than i thought (problem is, defense is much worse than i thought, lol). cubit looks good and wmu is moving the ball just fine. niu hit some huge plays in the 1h. but i cant see this game becoming a 30pt rout. theres just no defense on either side.

 

[gman2]

western michigan over 500 total yards.
western michigan 38 points.

and they dont cover 20 points at home. gonna lose by a point. damn.

at least they covered the 2nd half line with ease. will take a split, but holy shit is western's defense bad. totally negated a great performance by the bronco offense.