to come in? I cant recall from 2000 but some of the polls in the East should have a good count by now.
Anyone recall when the early exit polls start
- Thread starter Master Capper
- Start date
I was just wondering that myself. Saw that the drudge report says exit polls are encouraging for Kerry.
They usually wont report them until the polls have closed in that state. The fear is influencing people who have not voted in that state.
Pirate Fan,
In all seriousness do you believe Drudge is a decent news worthy guy (this is not a dig, just wanting your opinion)? I use to enjoy his show but stop listening when he went on for over one year about Monica and Bill, is the website mattdrudge.com?
In all seriousness do you believe Drudge is a decent news worthy guy (this is not a dig, just wanting your opinion)? I use to enjoy his show but stop listening when he went on for over one year about Monica and Bill, is the website mattdrudge.com?
Drudge is a joke. I've said it here before and I'll say it again... Drudge has less journalistic credibility than The Onion.
Nonetheless, Pirate Fan was correct that his site is reporting that early exit polls favor Kerry in Ohio and Florida but of course the link does not work.
FWIW
Early Exit
A squeaker!
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 12:34 PM PT
The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:
Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Continue Article
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51
Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.
Early Exit
A squeaker!
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 12:34 PM PT
The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:
Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Continue Article
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51
Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.
Been gone for a few hours. MC, Drudge is just one other source, they all have a bias. Just surprised it would say Kerry was doing OK and it was only a response to your question. I rarely even glance at it.
Don't be mislead if you are live betting. The early polls came in for Bush but those states were totally expected to go that way. It may be that some people are betting like they do at sports events, when one team takes the lead. Soon the NE states and NY will come in and Kerry will get a bounce, and Bush also in some southern states.
People who are betting based on what they see on the TV screen at any given moment do not understand politics. The critical states are what matters, not the taken-for-granted states. If the turnout does favour Kerry, and he is a clear fav, it may be good value to take the reduced juice before he jumps up in juice (again).
Just an idea, only looking to make money here.
People who are betting based on what they see on the TV screen at any given moment do not understand politics. The critical states are what matters, not the taken-for-granted states. If the turnout does favour Kerry, and he is a clear fav, it may be good value to take the reduced juice before he jumps up in juice (again).
Just an idea, only looking to make money here.
