ncaa football (tuesday 9th --- saturday 13th) ......

gman2

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Nov 12, 2002
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(very big play)
marshall thundering herd (+10)
marshall thundering herd moneyline (waiting)

toledo rockets (+6.5)
toledo rockets moneyline (+200)

eastern michigan eagles (+12)

virginia cavaliers (-3.5)
 
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TheCooler

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gman if toledo is 6-0-1 ats last 7 and 7-0 last 7 against n.illinois then why are they getting 6.5 ? is this a strong play and how much value do you give the ml play ? thanks in advance i appreciate all the $$ you have made me in the mac.
 

gman2

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toledo at northern illinois (7:30pm tuesday)
i guess its my admitted disrespect toward northern illinois that is anchoring a toledo play in this one. records aside, i just think northern is the 5th best team in the mac (behind bowling green, toledo, marshall, and miami). gradkowski had an incredibly efficient game against the huskies last year (25 of 27 for 301) and i think theyre vulnerable in the secondary. niu just got killed by toledo's balanced spread O last season. toledo owns this series (winning the last 10 straight up, which include some nice wins in dekalb along the way). no doubt wolfe is a bitch to stop this season (a ridiculous 6.3 ypc is most impressive) and that will test toledo's defense for sure. but after getting gouged by the run in the 1st two games of the season (kansas and minnesota), toledo has significantly tightened up their run defense (allowing < 3 ypc L4 weeks) im just taking a rudimentary approach in this one: toledo is the better team and northern simply hasnt found a way to beat them. no sense in trying to guess when niu is gonna get over the 'toledo hump'. the huskies were in the top 25 last year vs. the rockets and couldnt do it. they couldnt stop toledo at home 2 years ago from taking the ball down the field in the final minute and scoring the game-winning TD (incidentally, rockets came into dekalb and rang up 563 total yards that day). still sticking to my belief that toledo is the best team in the mac and will win the league title. northern has been solid at home the last few years, but toledo is the one team that doesn't fear playing there.
 

spang

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Just curious, but in your 5 best teams in the mac list you listed the Falcons first, which represents a departure from your feelings earlier this season. While I have always thought the Falcons had a slight edge over the rest, I still think that you can pretty much toss a blanket over the top 5 and turnovers/ home field will be the prevailing factors of victory.

Its hard to rationalize the Rockets mastery over the Huskies over the last ten, but it is a trend worthy of backing. Rockets need this one , and thats a generous number.

GL
 

Irish

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Good luck tonight, hate to be on the other side of you! Best of luck with your Rockets but....GO NO. ILL!!!!!!!!!!!! :)

Cheers
Irish
 

gman2

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spang- didnt list that top 5 in any order. falcons are playing the best, but i still think theyve got weaknesses that will be exposed in the final two weeks.
 

taoist

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gman,

...you know I respect your opinion...especially when it comes to the MAC, but I was wondering if you might give me a little reasoning behind the Thundering Turd pick.... I had BG circled as a possible play this week and don't see how the Turd's defense will stop BG's offense.... Thanks for all that you do around here, buddy. :)
 

gman2

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taoist:

no problem. i wouldnt step out with marshall as a big play and not be willing to back it up with some reasoning. will put something together later on this evening when i have all my stuff in front of me.
 

gman2

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marshall at bowling green
when the chips are down, marshall is still the best big game team the conference has ever seen. the herd's mac stay has proven ephemeral and im sure pruett would love one more mac east title before he leaves. while akron is the only team in the mac east who controls their own destiny, its more likely that marshall wins the east if they win out (akron finishes at ohio and home to miami -- which will take a herculean effort to win). bowling green is an offensive juggernaut. theres no denying that. jacobs has exceeded everyones expectations at qb and their offense is just en fuego right now. but theyre facing a real defense now. no more ripping apart ball state, eastern michigan, temple, and western michigan. bowling green hasnt seen a defense this good since week one in oklahoma. also cant discount the potential lookahead factor with the biggest rivalry in the mac on deck (bowling green vs. toledo). not saying bg will be looking ahead so much that theyll be unfocused on the herd, but thats a huge game for them and it seems a lot of people have inexplicably written marshall off. i love the fact that marshall played like shit in the 2h against akron because this is the kind of program where that shit doesnt fly. instead of candy coating it and protecting his players, pruett was publicly pissed, as his quotes and press conferences certainly attest. im certainly not the biggest fan of marshall's pedestrian offense, but hill showed me some good things last week and id like to think he carries that over. as far as the line goes, i cant say its 'off' necessarily because the linesmaker really has no choice but to install bg as a TD+ chalk, especially with the way theyre ripping teams at home. but in terms of talent, big game experience, coaching, and all the other variables, i would have played marshall at anything more than 5 or 6. pruett as an underdog is about as solid a bet as you can make. the speed of the marshall defense is something bg hasnt seen this year (since okie) and jacobs has essentially been running 7-on-7 pass drills the last few weeks with all the time he's had to throw. im not so sure he can be as effective with pressure from goddard and company. after all, jacobs is still raw and relatively untested in big games. the marshall program thrives in this kind of spot. im expecting marshall's best effort of mac play on saturday. this is when i expect marshall's toughness and experience from playing ohio state and georgia to show up. to me, with a win, marshall wins the mac east because i dont realistically see akron winning out. if ive learned one thing in all my years of betting the mac, its what i stated earlier: marshall is the best big game team the conference has ever seen, and pruett as a dog is damn near an obligatory play.
 
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BigSlick

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gman - I'm thinking about putting an above average play on the Zips: 2 teams going in completely opposite directions...all I have to do is pick the winner....

Have you an opinion on this one?
 

bombercoops

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Good call tonight gman! You seem to have the MAC down-pat! GL on the marshall game.
 

pt1gard

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thanx G2 ... didint know much other than rockets have had some O ... bought to 7.5 then tossed a ML parlay to Canes +140 ... I know i might lose it but pays 8/1 :) ...

take care
gregg
 
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