ncaa football (tuesday 9th --- saturday 13th) ......

[AR182]

gman,

great call on toledo last night.

i took marshall earlier this week & am glad that you also are on them.

it's interesting to note that bg hasn't played a team with a winning percentage since the 3rd game of the season when it lost to n. illinois.on the other hand marshall is battle tested & is 4-1 ats the last 5 times that they have been a double digit dog (vs. georgia, ohio state,miami ohio, kansas st., & tenn.)


continued success.

 

[gman2]

eastern michigan at kent state
emu coming off a quadruple overtime win over central michigan last saturday. kent coming in off a rout of buffalo. flashes obviously gonna be the more rested team but for them to be laying double-digit chalk to anybody is ridiculous, let alone laying it to an improving eastern michigan team. right now, emu's deslauries is playing like the best receiver in the mac. its tough for a wide receiver to do, but he's taken over some games the last few weeks. he might be the best player on the field saturday, and thats saying something with cribbs on the opposite sideline. deslauries last four games: 14 for 207, 9 for 189, 8 for 142, and 10 for 209. right now, both emu and kent are playing well. this is going to end up being a good football. i just cannot see either team running away with this game. emu has too much offense to get blown out by kent. here's an eye-popping stat: kent has played 11 november games the last four years. their defense is allowing over 34 points per game in those contests. (and would be over 37 if not for buffalo's 7-spot last week). theyve allowed 30+ to an opposition in 7 of their L11 november games. too much O from emu and not enough D from kent is gonna make this a difficult number to cover

miami at virginia
as cappers, i think we already know all there is to know about these two teams. no 'hidden angles' are going to produce winners in these marquee games. i just think this one features two teams going in opposite directions. virginia looks to be refocused after the fsu nightmare, while miami showed little pulse after the carolina loss, allowing it to roll over into a clemson loss as well. the canes defense is in a free-fall (31ppg allowed L4) and i cant write it off as an abberration either; their defensive injuries are starting to really show up now. normally, id look to back a team in miami's position (as you dont get them as a FG+ dog very often) but not this time. virginia too solid in all areas not to take advantage of a chance to smack a reeling miami team.

 

[Bill]

Good stuff.

thanks,
Bill

 

[tulah]

Thanx for the Toledo play
I had it ML as well.

I'm on 2 MAC game's this week
I was hoping to get your thoughts ,if possible

CMU-5
Akron pick

Personally I think they both open a can of whoop-ass

I'll definitley be coattailing Marshall+10

GL GMAN2

 

[LA Burns]

gman

looking for a reason not to pound ohio on saturday - lack of familiarity with ohio keeping me from pulling the trigger


this is strictly a situational play, as we have an in-state rival playing its last game of the year against a team off of one its biggest wins in a while with another big boy on deck

if i believed that ohio, regardless of their talent level, was going to play this game with a bit of passion, that would be enough for me to get on down

thx in advance - LA Burns

 

[Scott4USC]

good luck gman2! I really like your UVA bet and I am on them as well. What I love most about that game is Miami's inability to stop the run and poor tackling vs UVA's ability to run the ball with 2 quality backs. Plus it is @UVA. Huge game for the UVA program and I think they will rise to the challenge. You also have to like how Coker is not an innovative head coach.

 

[gman2]

tulah/slick/burns
re: akron at ohio

i really think this game is far and away the toughest mac game on saturdays card. akron has everything at stake: if they lose, their mac east hopes go down the drain. if they win, they play miami next week for the mac east championship and a mac title game berth. ohio has been in a nosedive for the last month after a promising start. ostensibly, this one looks easy -- two teams going opposite ways and akron with so much at stake. but i just cant trust akron on the road. as a casual zips fan, i really want to see them win. it would be great for their program to at least have a shot to play for the title. but ohio is never an easy place to play and the bobcats just have a dangerous feeling to them this week. zips have been night and day this year home/away. i really cant say whos the better team either (thus the line being pretty accurate at pick). this game is so damn even. as you guys can tell, i cant even offer an opinion on this one because one minute, my lean is to OU and the next minute, its to the zips. if ohio rolls over for akron, id be very very surprised. my gut feeling: akron wins the game something like 21-17 with ohio being right there all game. to me, not an 'unload' game on akron, although i can certainly see the logic in backing them just from a 'must win' perspective.

tulah:
(here's my thoughts that i extracted from right side's thread when i discussed this cmu/buffalo game)
im a big believer in central michigan as you know, but they fall into a real negative category this week (teams that allow 40+ points in a close, high-scoring game normally are very poor plays the next week). alabama-birmingham fell into the same spot last week (lost to a pathetic south florida team a week after losing a down-to-the-wire shootout). buffalo is so bad that cmu might be able to win just by showing up but numbers are against 'em. but then again, life's deck of cards is stacked against buffalo

a few things to add: kent smith has played really well lately. he's really started to grasp kelly's spread offense and the offensive results show as much. look at not just his passing numbers the last 3 weeks, but his rushing yards (from the qb keepers off the spread)

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=114700

oddly enough, their rb seymour had a long string of 100-yd games snapped a few weeks back and he's only gone for 177 yds on 57 carries the L2 weeks. bottom line is that this one simply comes down to cmu putting that emu heartbreaker (61-58 in 4OT) behind them and not allowing themselves to get caught napping on this pretty long late-season trip east to buffalo. honestly, i think they handle buffalo with little problem but the whole 'traveling a couple states east after a 4OT loss' is what keeps me away. but id be really surprised if they didnt cover.

 

[Franky Wright]

Good stuff Gman............

GL this weekend

Franky

 

[gman2]

heres a good central michigan article. some good quotes and info about mindset of the team after the 4 OT loss ("cmu looks to bounce back at buffalo"):

http://www.mlive.com/chippewas/sanews/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1100274645182271.xml

interesting article from toledo blade ("falcons win streak needs an asterisk / marshall should be tougher competition"):

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041110/SPORTS03/411100339

another blade article on marshall/bg ("falcons to collide with herd defense")

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041112/SPORTS03/411120336

akron/ohio preview:

http://gozips.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/110904aab.html

another akron article ("zips continue their path to greater respect")

http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/colleges/university_of_akron/10162362.htm?1c

 

[tulah]

Thanks gman2

I'm playing mostly MAC teams this week

GL

 

[lendig]

Ohio U -2?

Ohio U -2?

Ohio U moved from pick to -2 at WWTS, anybody have info on line move?

 

[GOLFSTUD]

Thanks Gman

Thanks Gman

Thanks for the great write-ups and all your hard work.

Coattailing you as usual.

 

[spang]

Ref: OU/ Akron

Ref: OU/ Akron

I hope that last weeks great comeback victory over Marshall has not convinced anybody that the Zips are a solid football team.

Fact is that the Zips cashed about a 100/ 1 chance of beating the Herd last week. Marshall dropped three easy TD tosses that they were not able to later cash into points due to missed FGs. Even with the miscues, the Herd out gained the Zips by around 150 yards.When traveling, the numbers for the Zips are not pretty. they have been out- yarded by every team that they have faced away, including the likes of KSU and CFU.

In short, the Ziips have benefited from a soft Mac schedule, a lot of breaks, and a very good QB that can make plays. Still, to ask the Zips to win on the road remains a very tall order. Don't get me wrong. I will be pulling very hard for the Zips today. The idea of attending meaningful football games at the Rubber Bowl in November just blows me away and if we get a shot at Miami next week for the crown I will be ecstatic. I just remain skeptical about the true quality of this football team.

On paper iit's not a bad matchup. I don't think that Ou can exploit a really suspect akron secondary, so there is hope!! Good luck to all Zip backers today.

 

[LA Burns]

Thanks gman and spang

Thanks gman and spang

basically got what i needed out of the responses you all gave - i will make ohio a play, albeit not the large one i envisioned earlier in the week - gman, this site went downhill for a while but i often tune in to get your educated perspective - thanks for putting in all that work - not really a poster of plays, but here is my card for saturday:

10 Units Wyoming + 23- - Laramie will be rockin' for a Cowboys squad that is undefeated at home this year - had this game circled for about a month as I searched the Utes schedule for that one game where they had a chance to slip up - really feel that this will be a competitive game

5 Units LSU - 7 -120 - I will be at Death Valley tonight and the feeling around here is palpable - 1st big game for the Tigers at home all year, and I guarantee you the atmosphere tonight will be incredible - here in New Orleans, people who are huge LSU fans are all playing Bama b/c of their #1 defense etc., they will all lose as we have an odd situation here where the defending national champions will be slightly overlooked due to the Iron Bowl next week - really like this game but will scale back due to the fact that I went to LSU and I hate to think that this is a "homer" play - pairing LSU with one of your favorite NFL games tom. in a tease would be an excellent idea

5 Units Ohio - as per earlier discussion

5 Units UVA -3 -125 - Already on this one when I saw gman post it - this is simply a game where UVA will use the experience they gained in the butt-whipping they took in Tallahassee to mark a huge victory for thier program - what does Miami have to play for at this point?

5 Unit parlay - Purdue ML -200 / WF ML - 180 - I have been fading Purdue since the Illinois game with extremely successful results, but this is a situation in which they shoul be successful - OSU off of an emotional win with the "Big Game" on deck, 'nuff said - a little nervous w/ the deamon deacs as they seem to be a popular play, but with bowl eligiblity status in mind and UNC's recent schedule, really like the spot for WF

Probably won't post it but I really like Jax tom. - Garrard is a good player aqnd there is no reason at all to believe that the Lions will go to FLA and win that game - will take ML or simply buy it to 3 if need be

Again, thx gman and spang for your efforts - good luck with this weekend's card - LA Burns

 

[Tain]

GMan I cant beleive you dont have NIU in that mix.

 

[KsYaS]

Hey gman2, do you have any resource to see a gametracker or listen live the Marshall game??