nice observation/commetary a week ago last friday on cubs situation from baseball propsectus...
keep in mind, negotations have changed in few instances since article...for example closer signings by other clubs..
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Slammin' The Door: Slammin' Sammy Sosa has gone from the smiling stereotype to disgruntled exile in a hurry. The Windy City breezes have blown ill for Sosa since Dusty Baker arrived two years ago. Baker's vaunted clubhouse skills worked in 2003, getting the Snugglies past Sosa's corked bat and curse-worn jitters and into the playoffs. Last year wasn't so successful; the late-season collapse seemed to stand staring at Baker's office door. Even the announcing team turned on the manager, but in typical Baker style, he deflected the attention using his Jedi Toothpick Tricks and a press corps all too willing to bite the hand that once fed them. Sosa's iconic boombox lay shattered in front of his locker, a symbol of his sharp fall.
A "poison pill" option in Sosa's contract--he'd have to be paid $18 million in 2006 if he's dealt--makes him difficult to trade, but Jim Hendry is proving that it may not be impossible. While value is certainly not the first consideration, ongoing talks with the Mets new GM, Omar Minaya, have focused on money and Cliff Floyd. With Sosa willing to negotiate on the clause, perhaps making it a vesting option or a guaranteed year at less money, and the Players Association willing to allow this, the Cubs appear willing to trade an attitude problem for an injury problem.
How would this look on the field? Sosa is a shell of his former self, a one-dimensional slugger who has seen his performance--down 25 points a year of EqA--and playing time--at least ten games fewer each season--drop in every year since 2001. At 36, it's asking a lot to expect these trends to stabilize, much less reverse themselves.
Even at that, Sosa is a good bet to outplay Floyd next year. The left fielder's back-to-back 140-game seasons in 2001 and 2002 are a distant memory; he's averaged 111 appearances in his two years in New York, reverting to the fragile slugger he'd been his entire career. He's a good, not great hitter--trending downward--and an indifferent outfielder--also trending downward. The difference between the two players over a full season might be a win. Of course, Floyd is no more likely to stay healthy this season than Tara Reid is to stay sober at P. Diddy's next yacht party. The trade is a push, unless rumors that Mike Piazza could be included prove true.
No More Nomar? While the Cubs lust after their neighbor's shortstop, the one they have isn't shabby. Nomar Garciaparra may have missed time with a lingering Achilles injury and chronic wrist problems, but his numbers compare well with both Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera. This chart, courtesy of Christian Ruzich, shows pretty clearly how they stack up.
RENTERIA CABRERA GARCIAPARRA
AGE 29 30 31
BORN IN Colombia Colombia U.S.A.
EXPERIENCE Nine years Eight years Nine years
2004 SALARY $7.25MM $6.0MM $11.5MM
PERCEPTION Good guy Team player Malingerer
CAREER OFFENSE .289/.346/.400 .268/.316/.409 .322/.370/.549
CAREER HR/RBI 83/565 72/412 182/710
CAREER BB/K 434/675 244/321 295/420
CAREER SB/CS 237/89 (72.7%) 97/30 (76.4%) 86/29 (74.8%)
# ALL-STAR APPEARANCES 4 0 5
# GOLD GLOVES 2 1 0
# WORLD SERIES RINGS 1 1 0
2004 OFFENSE
AVG/OBP/SLG .287/.327/.401 .264/.306/.383 .308/.365/.477
HR/RBI 10/72 10/62 9/41
BB/K 39/78 39/54 24/30
VALUE OVER REPLACEMENT 26.5 13.7 29.7
EQUIVALENT AVERAGE .255 .241 .285
OFFENSIVE REPUTATION Good Eh Fading
2004 DEFENSE
RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE -12 -7 -8
DEFENSIVE REPUTATION Good Very good Challenged
CONTRACT ESTIMATE 3Y/$25MM 2Y/$15MM 1Y/$9MM