Questions for OU fans?

[Scott4USC]

I have 4 legit questions for OU fans or anybody who has followed OU this year. These are serious questions I have about OU and will help me out handicapping this game. I need to start handicapping now since money might be poured on OU and if I want to hedge with the best value I need to act right away. USC opened -4.5 and is now -3.5 at Pinny. Not sure what the line will open up at all the sportsbooks today.

I have a very large USC futures wager and thus far only hedged portion of it but I want to hedge more but am getting doubts if I should. Unfortunately, OU's domination over CO and USC's close game against UCLA has made the USC/OU line very small. I was hoping to get OU +200 or +6 and now I will be lucky to get +150 & +3. I am not sure if I will hedge now (maybe not worth it) so I would really appreciate it if you can answer these questions. I think the answers to these questions will help anybody who is trying to handicap this game. These are great questions and I will appreciate any/all serious answers to them. Lets make this an intelligent thread about these 2 programs and keep it ON TOPIC.

4 Questions about OU

1. Who would you say has been the best offensive coordinator OU has faced this year? With the athletes to execute the gameplan?

2. Which single player has given OU the biggest matchup problem this year?

3. Who has been the best QB OU has faced this year?

4. What if the answer to all three are on the same team, with a pretty good D to go along with it, and the game won't be played in Norman?

Thanks! Remember, I have all the respect for the OU team and coaching staff. That is why I am worried about my USC futures wager and seriously thinking about hedging it big time. I am not as confident in USC as I was the last 2 years. That is why I am asking these questions. OU is a great team with excellent skill players. These questions are not really about the OU team, but more about who they have played. Something people might not be focusing on when handicapping this game. Something that I am focusing on when handicapping this game.

Please help me out, thanks!

 

[dr. freeze]

1. Greg Davis
2. Bobby Purify
3. Joe Dailey
4. Bob Stoops will piss in his pants and probably take his team to the sidelines in fear in the 2nd quarter.

 

[skillrules]

Line is moving at Pinnacle:

USC -3 +103

 

[justafan]

That was a good one DR Freeze. haha

 

[Sun Tzu]

Give it a rest Scott. The purpose of your post is beyond transparent.

 

[dr. freeze]

nah he's just a little 5 year old inside waiting in anxiety to open his Christmas present and he can't help but criticize everyone else but his own broken down little fire truck in his envy

 

[skillrules]

good bash, freeze.

Im getting the idea this might be a pick'em by game time. Looking forward to it.

 

[dr. freeze]

i think it will be a good one too....gonna take some time off this forum because my health and holiday spirits will dictate that I get away from these foolish little kid

nothing is worse than a guy who comes out here and explains how he is a friendly fan and then criticizes your team and everyone else's team in the process....

if you got something to say....SAY IT....enough of this stupid criticizing of OU, the BIG 12, and every other team in any other conference other than the ****ing PAC TEN while pretending that your aren't

if you want to compare conferences/teams, do so in an intellectually honest manner

GEEZ MY BP IS RISING ALREADY...ENOUGH WITH THIS FOOL

 

[pt1gard]

scott, my advice is: hedge half your bet, you got it on a loophole and collect your X- K amount you enjoy displaying ... then root on your trojans ... remember when U didnt hedge Canes vs Oh ST, you told me you learned your lesson ...

gl, gregg

 

[tulah]

Scott
I see no reason to hedge
USC rolls easily.

 

[kneifl]

OU wins this outright, nuff said. This will be an easy winner for me OU ML and OU and the points. Two words can clearly describe USC:

OVER
RATED

or if you would like to make it one word

OVERRATED

Welp, there you go..... Also, the big 12 is a tougher conference than the peewee 10.

kneifl

 

[Scott4USC]

kneifl

Why would you say USC is over-rated and not OU? Is it because OU finished the season really strong beating Baylor, Colorado, and Nebraska? Is that why? Before those 3 teams, OU struggled against A&M and Ok. St. giving up 35pts in each game (yes I know 2 DB's been replaced and not all the pts were given up by the defense).

So why is USC over-rated when they beat 2 top 10 ranked teams and 2 teams that prob. should be playing in BCS Bowl Games.

Hasn't USC won 2 straight BCS bowl games in the last 2 years by double digits and won 33 of their last 34 games with that 1 loss coming in triple OT?

Not sure why USC has not earned your respect. Not saying USC will win, but I find it hard for ANYBODY to say USC is over-rated.

-USC earned their #1 pre-season ranking.
-USC went undefeated playing a tough SOS with everyone bringing their A game to beat the #1 team in the country.
-USC beat 2 top 10 ranked teams.
-USC played tough road games in tough road conditions.
-USC has 2 heisman finalists.
-USC is well coached.
-USC were AP NC's last year.

Calling USC over-rated is absurd to me. Even if OU beats USC or blows USC out. Remember, USC only starts 2 seniors on offense and this whole team is VERY VERY young. You expect them to BLOW everyone out? Not gonna happen when you replace your whole OL and WR corps along with both DB's. Not to mention overcoming injuries throughout the year to an already young team. Don't the Patriots in the NFL win a lot of close games? Isn't that what makes them so good they always find a way to win? Well that is what you have with this young USC team. You gotta beat them 4 quarters and only 1 team this year has hung with USC for 4 quarters and that was CAL. All year USC has started off slow for the most part (due to being so young) but in the Orange Bowl, USC cannot afford to start out slow and I don't expect them too. 4 weeks is a lot of time to prepare and to unleash the playbook from Chow and unleash the blitz schemes from Carroll's defense.

Next year USC again will open up #1 pre-season because they return everyone back and they have earned it. Gonna call them over-rated if they win out again next year (which they will do).

Do you think AU, team who also went undefeated but playing a much much weaker SOS should pass the "over-rated" USC team? The same USC team who has beat AU the last 2 years? I know it is "this" year but you gotta take all variables into account and nobody can make a strong argument for AU to pass USC or OU.

tulah

I think more money will be going on USC later on in the month. A friend of mine told me that these guys in vegas he knows will be dumping at least $500,000 on USC but they are waiting for the line to go to -2.5. These same guys dumped $800,000 on Texas Tech and the line moved down.

pt1gard

Why did you bring up Miami/Ohio St.? That game still haunts me and OSU had no business winning that game. Geez I was so pissed over that. I still hate that ref for the PI! But you are right, classic reason to hedge. I hate hedging but I prob. will this time because the stakes are about 9x more. Thanks for the reminder to be smart!

 

[ET4646]

Scott,


Don't waste your time or breath on going over stats. Alot of people in here are going to say that SC is overrated because they play in the PAC-10. I have to have a question answered by anyone who would like to answer: If a team is a good team does it matter what conference they play in? Can anyone dispute that SC has just as good atletes, coaches, etc as OU or AU? If your answer is yes they do, then why does it matter where a team plays? What would you guys say if SC managed to pull a MIRACLE and beat OU, they got lucky? thr refs screwed OU? I am by no means an SC fan but this better conference shit is just plain ignorant, if SC is better than OU on 1/4 than they will win, if not OU will win. This will have nothing to do with the fact that USC only beat UCLA by 5 or the fact that OU struggled against OSU. The better team on that day will win.

 

[Scott4USC]

ET4646

If a team is a good team does it matter what conference they play in?

Yes it matters because in this case AU is being left out when they went undefeated in a BCS conf. So you must compare everything. OOC, conf., how they won/lost, etc. The problem is conf. are not the same. Some conf. play on the road, schedule tough OOC opponent etc. and that makes it tough to compare. You can't simply compare conf. based on wins/losses or # of bowl teams.

To answer your question further, would you want Boise St. or Utah playing on Jan. 4th? They are a very good teams but play in the Mt. West and WAC. The answer to that is NO! So it does matter what conf. you play in and who you play "all season." It also matters how you look/win. Everything must be factored in.

It doesn't mean Utah, Boise St. or AU couldn't beat USC or OU. We don't have a playoff system so the BCS has to get the 2 best teams in one game.
Just my opinion.

 

[ET4646]

Not talking about the piece of shit BCS I am talking about OU vs USC on 1/4 I guess I will stop talking about this the only reason I want SC to win is to shut up all these people that think football on the west coast is weak

 

[Scott4USC]

Here are some interesting statistical data I have gathered about OU/USC. Not sure if this means a whole lot since their are so many different variables but it is interesting none the less. I personally think it is helpful in capping this game which is exactly why I did this looking for an advantage for either team. The 6 BCS computers have calculated the Big 12 and Pac10 being #1 and #2 BCS conferences. So that gives more credibility when comparing OU/USC.

Since both teams played 12-game schedule, I took the statistical data from the top 6 opponents in each category and top 50 if they had more than 6 opponents ranked in the top 50. I was hoping to find a clear cut advantage for one team over the other, but I found the opposite. Remember, these the the opponents national rankings and lower the # the better.

RUSHING DEFENSE

USC
3 California
9 Notre Dame
23 Virginia Tech
30 Oregon St.
32 Arizona
35 Arizona St.
39 Washington St.

OU
12 Nebraska
14 Texas
25 Kansas
29 Oregon
40 Texas A&M
42 Bowling Green

PASS DEFENSE

USC
5 Virginia Tech
18 Washington
27 Colorado St.
28 Oregon St.
57 California
58 UCLA

OU
13 Texas Tech
41 Kansas St.
49 Houston
56 Texas
62 Baylor
64 Oregon

TOTAL DEFENSE

USC
4 Virginia Tech
13 California
22 Oregon St.
48 Arizona St.
53 Washington St.
54 Notre Dame

OU
24 Texas
38 Oregon
41 Kansas
42 Texas Tech
44 Kansas St.
56 Nebraska

SCORING DEFENSE (lowest average pts allowed by opp.)

USC
3 Virginia Tech
4 California
33 Stanford
40 Notre Dame
52 Arizona St.
55 Oregon St.

OU
14 Texas
35 Kansas
38 Bowling Green
43 Texas A&M
49 Oklahoma St.
59 Colorado

RUSHING OFFENSE

USC
5 California
24 UCLA
28 Virginia Tech
77 Notre Dame
85 Washington St.
92 Washington

OU
2 Texas
8 Oklahoma St.
29 Kansas St.
33 Nebraska
37 Texas A&M
48 Bowling Green

PASSING OFFENSE

USC
5 Arizona St.
8 Oregon St.
12 Brigham Young
22 Colorado St.
28 Stanford
36 Washington St.
42 CAL
47 UCLA

OU
1 Texas Tech
2 Bowling Green
20 Texas A&M
26 Houston
39 Oregon
60 Baylor

TOTAL OFFENSE

USC
5 California
23 Arizona St.
26 UCLA
48 Brigham Young
53 Oregon St.
59 Colorado St.

OU
4 Bowling Green
6 Texas Tech
9 Texas
16 Texas A&M
36 Oregon
43 Houston
45 Oklahoma St.

Now if you take the averages of the top 6 opponent rankings and add them up, OU/USC is dead even. Although I think that this is somewhat skewed in favor of OU since BG helped OU with opponent offensive production because they play in a conf. where defense does not exist. Can say the same with Houston.

USC= 31
OU = 31

These are the number of team units OU/USC has faced ranked in the top 10 in each category.

Rush D
USC 2
OU 0

Pass D
USC 1
OU 0

Total D
USC 1
OU 0

Scoring D (lowest pts allowed on D)
USC 2
OU 0

Rush O
USC 1
OU 2

Pass O
USC 2
OU 2

Total O
USC 1
OU 3

USC faced 9 units ranked in top 10.
OU faced 7 units ranked in top 10.

Advantage USC +2 in top 10 sample.

If you want to take a larger sample, here are the # of units each team has faced ranked in the top 50.

USC faced 34 units ranked in top 50.
OU faced 37 units ranked in top 50.

Advantage OU +3 in top 50 sample.

Those are the statistical facts and they are SCARY CLOSE for each team. Wow, what a game! The reason I did this calculation is I was hoping either USC or OU would separate themselves in this statistical analysis. They obviously have played similar quality opponents. Depends whether you think playing more top 10 units serves USC better or playing more top 50 units serves OU more. Both USC and OU were ranked in the top 10 in many categories.

*I did not check my data twice to make sure it was correct. Could be an error or two but I doubt it.

 

[pt1gard]

stats aside, it will be which QB gets ratttled--IMHO anyway, and that is a tuff one to gauge as anything ...

gl, gregg

 

[Scott4USC]

stats aside, it will be which QB gets ratttled--IMHO anyway, and that is a tuff one to gauge as anything ...

gl, gregg

Yes and no. Neither QB should get rattled but if one is going too I have to pick White based on how he has performed in his last 2 big games. Yes I know his injury hampered him and didn't hve AD but he still couldn't read defenses very well. He made poor decisions in the BCS NC game. Remember, White all year has had TONS OF TIME to sit back and chuck to his great WR's. Leinart has not been so fortunate all the time. If pressure is going to frustrate a QB, it is going to be the QB who has not seen pressure all year long. So if USC DL can win the battle vs OU OL then White might get rattled. That is where the game might be decided. USC DL vs OU OL. If it is a wash, then OU prob. will win the game.

2nd most important thing to look at is the OU esperienced DL vs USC inexperienced OL. That said, USC has CHOW to help offset that.

So if you ask me, I think this game will be won in the trenches and OU might have the advantage if you compare BOTH lines. USC's OL has a lot of work and growing up to do from now until the 4th. Plus USC gets back an injured starting lineman (Drake) who has missed the last 2 games on the OL and an injured 2nd string DL (Wright, who would start anywhere else) who has missed the last 3 games. Both make a big difference and both were missed against ND and UCLA. Plus Wright is prob. more talented thatn CODY and PATTERSON. Wright will prevent AD from tiring the USC front 4. Very important. AD is the type of runner who can wear down a line AND break a big one at the same time. Special player! As for Drake, his replacement was a true frosh (BYERS) who was completely manhandled at times by the UCLA DL and hurt USC. If Byers had bad game against UCLA DL what will happen against OU DL??? SCARY! :scared Watch the injury/health status of Drake. All reports say he and wright will be healthy for OB. Plus USC RB White will be healthy too (bum ankle 1/2 year) and he IMO plays huge part in the offense. Plus he is my fav. player on the team! I am hoping USC lines WHITE at RB and puts BUSH AT WR for the OU game. That is where USC is most deadly and I am gonna see if they do that at practices.

 

[Master Capper]

Scott,

Not to take away for your bullcrap SOS theories, but what was the record of USC opponents for the year compared to the record for Oklahoma and Auburn's opponents?

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott,

Not to take away for your bullcrap SOS theories, but what was the record of USC opponents for the year compared to the record for Oklahoma and Auburn's opponents?

What exactly is "bullcrap" from the SOS's I posted. I don't understand where you are coming from. You detest something but you fail to explain why you detest it.

I honestly don't know the record of USC's, OU's, and Auburns's opponents. I don't really care because it means nothing. I can easily explain the flawed logic behind that use of data.

Ok, I decided to give an example to explain why it means nothing. Lets say team A played 5 teams and all 5 teams played horrible weak OOC opponents so all 5 teams have 15-20 wins combined.

Lets say team B played 5 different teams and those 5 teams played tough OOC schedule. Lets say they did average and won half their OOC play. Those 5 teams would have lets say 7-11 wins each.

Team A's opponents have 15-20 wins
Team B's opponents have 7-11 wins

NOW WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD ANYBODY USE AN OPPONENTS WIN/LOST RECORD TO DETERMINE ANYTHING?