Chargers not as easy as it looks

[Dizzayton]

The number don't lie.

Jets 5th ranked scoring Defense in AFC
Chargers 10th ranked scroing D

Jets are by far the least penalized team in the AFC. That is key when we are talking about a 7 point spread.

Chargers strength is their run D, it is 2nd in the AFC and it has only yielded 2 runs of 20+!!!!!!!!

Jets has 4th best run D in AFC. Has yielded 7 runs over 20+

Backdoor cover stat-SD is 2nd to last in AFC against the past.

SD has been outgained 4 out of its last 5 games in total yardage. The one game where they were not outgained was against the horrid browns, and not by coincidence that is the only game out of the last 5 that they won by MORE than 7.

THIS GAME BOILS DOWN TO ONE MAN....CHAD PENNINGTON. IF HE PLAYS WELL THEN THE JETS PLAY COMPETITIVE AND COVER. HIS ARM AND HEALTH ARE UNDER FIRE. IF HE CAN MAKE SOME THROWS THEN THE JETS WILL COVER. TURNOVERS WILL BE HUGE AS WELL AND BOTH THE JETS AND SD HAVE BEEN OUTSTANDING IN THE TURNOVER DEPARTMENT THIS SEASON. ABRAHAM WOULD BE A HUGE ADDITION TO THE JETS D-LINE IF HEALTHY, BUT IT APPEARS HE WILL SIT OUT. I LIKE THE JETS PLUS THE 7.

 

[alamojoe]

nice write-up; Jets could win this thing straight up

 

[bookie]

Marty Schottenheimer has a 5-11 playoff record.
Is it relevant?
I think so.

 

[HandiClapper]

Dreamers!!

Dreamers!!

The Jets are beat down, Pennington is playing terrible and the media is all over him.

Chargers -6.5 in a cake walk.

 

[bookie]

I do agree with you. I like the Chargers as well this week.
I'm not sure how far they will go though after that. This is why I posted the Schott record, its hard to take this guy seriously.

 

[vyrus858]

I am as loyal a charger fan as you will find, and I am constantly in contact with 3rd string running back Doug Chapman, and they themselves know this will not be a cakewalk. Barely any of this team has ever played under this kind of pressure. Stevie Cooper, a ex-practice squad player out of Maine who I regularly attend sushi with and who actually filled in for Godfrey against the Jets in week 2 (and led the team with 9 tackles)says the attitude of the players is that they are taking this as if THEY are the underdogs. They feel like Jets are more experienced and none of the role players on the Bolts have really experienced a playoff situation where they were SUPPOSED to win. Best of luck, I really think the Bolts might pull this out...for me Im not touching it, Jets far to dangerous with Pennington/Martin to at least keep it within 7.

 

[Statman02]

Chargers by 3

and the rest:

Seattle by 5
Indy by 6
GB by 3

 

[FirstnGoal]

The Jets are beat down, Pennington is playing terrible and the media is all over him.

Chargers -6.5 in a cake walk.

I couldn't agree more and add this to the fact that the Chargers have won 12 out of their last 13 SU AND have revenge on their mind while the Jets lost 3 out of their last 4 SU.

The Better team playing at home (with the revenge factor) gets the "W" this weekend.

 

[MrChristo]

v. playoff teams....SD:

Lost 28-34 v. Jets (Inc. kick return for TD for SD)
Lost 13-23 @ Denver
Lost 20-21 @ Atlanta
Won 20-17 v. Denver
Lost 31-34 @ Indi.

 

[AR182]

here is something that you might find interesting....

teams off of 2 consecutive losses(jets) entering the playoffs are 8-5 ats in the last 13 instances.

 

[freelancc]

keep an eye on the weather for this game..

heavy pacific storms hitting Socal. :sadwave:

 

[gman2]

i think vyrus is right. diego wins, probably controls the game, but jets cover wire to wire.

 

[Grizape]

I am so amazed by how many people think the Jets have no chance and that SD is going to roll over them. Yes, the Jets have lost 3 of their last 4 games but last time I checked it was against 4 playoff teams with 3 of them being division winners. Plus the fact that 2 of these teams were Pitt and NE with combined records of 29 - 3. They also lost their best defender in the Pitt game and has not played since. If you look even closer the Jets have only lost twice this entire year by more than 7pts, the current line on this game. So I urge all of you to keep betting on SD and boosting up that line because I would love to get that extra half pt just in case because Jets will cover this game and hopefully even pull out the win!!!

 

[vyrus858]

Or you can sign up with mybookie, betcom and parlaybook and get the extra half for free Grizape on Friday..plus parlay book has 7.5 already so you could get 8 tomm

 

[THE KOD]

Jets are demoralized, and dejected.

San Diego is going to be pumped for a playoff game at home.

Chargers are surprise team of the year.

NY Jets get spanked.

thanks motley

KOD

 

[Dizzayton]

Thanks fellas

Thanks fellas

Thanks to all those in this thread that helped backe up my stats with even more stats.

Everyone on SD simply says that the Chargers are hot and the Jets are shit, therefore the Chargers roll. The Jets are not shit though, and I feel like they play this untested Charger team very tough. I don't know who will win, but I don't have to because it is not a pick em, I am getting 7 on the JETS.

I do not blame Charger backers for playing the Chargers because they have been winning money off them all year long. It is a cardinal rule of gambling not to buck the horse you rode in on, but I didn't bet the Chargers all that often this year, or even the NFL for that matter. I find that during mid to late football season the college game is easy money up until bowl time. And I made a couple G's on the college game before taking a month off for studies.

Other than the above reason not to jump off the money train, I see no other real logical reason to bet the Chargers. Everyone says Jets are backing in and this and that. That is a load of crap. This JETS team is a solid playoff team, will they get past the conference semi's? Of course not, but they could easily beat this Chargers team or at least hang very close. This is a Charger team that is 1-4 against playoff foes, something the Jets of course are. The Chargers have also been less than spectacular on offense, as have the Jets, but the Chargers are the ones that have to cover the 7. Charger have been consistently outgained in total yardage, and the Jets are the most disciplined least penalized team in the league.

Look for the Jets to hammer away with Martin, gaining yards here and there, no big runs, but many 2-5 yard runs which are effective enough to set up 3rd and short. Look for Pennington to have a great game. This guy is a born winner, I don't care what anybody says about him. He will step up. Look for Moss and McCareins to get behind the defense on Deep play action balls setting up big plays and pass interference calls.

Both of these teams can run the ball and stop the run, which makes for a close ball game. Any weather problems will favor the jets getting the 7 in my opinion. I don't care what anybody says about the Chargers smoking the Jets, bottomline is that the NUMBERS DON"T LIE, and the hours I've spent capping this game and crunching the season stats tell me one thing: NO WAY IN HELL CAN YOU REASONABLY LAY 7 WITH THE CHARGERS.

For those of you who road in on the Charger money train, I completely understand your reasoning for not betting against a cash cow, it is sound reasoning. As for everyone else, like myself, who is betting the game strictly from a stats and matchups and numbers and experience standpoint, the JETS are the play. Good luck to all, and I will be back with a SEA/ST LOU write up at some point. I will be doing in serious capping on all of the playoff games and will share my limited knowledge with all.

 

[Dizzayton]

Scottlanta

Scottlanta

No offense Scott, but your previous little write up right before mine has loser written all over it. Is that you reasoning for laying 7 with the Chargers? If so, then I wish you the best of luck.

 

[vyrus858]

agreed...im just waiting for some of the one or two posters to post san diego as the GOY and im jumping on Jets...I reallhy hope the jets dont win straight up, but im sure Gman agrees that this one goes to the WIRE!

 

[Killian]

The Jets?? This team couldn't beat the Rams for christ sake.....The Jet defense that you keep talking about allowed St Louis to score 32 points in a game that they had to win in order to make the playoffs. I'm sorry, but, this is NOT what a team does if it's a serious contender. The Jets are lucky that they got some help from other teams or they would be on the outside looking in, wondering .........What happened ???
_____________________________________________________

"Never trap yourself"

 

[HandiClapper]

JETS had a weak schedule and thats the only reason they are in the playoffs. They played 5 solid teams all year and got beat by each one (Pats x2, Balt, Pitt and Indy). SD came together as a team and are now solid on Defense and Offense.