What If...

[Clem D]

The Steelers and Big Ben looked better and had not given up that kick return and pick for a td and won say 17-3 or 20 to 3? What if The Colts were not coached by Tony Dungee and their coach decided to play the same offense he had used all season, and The Pats held them off say 27-24??

Would New England be favored on the road by 2.5 or 3 ?

I gotta believe the answer is no. I think they would have made Pitt the favorite by 1.5 or 2.5. I think the Pats were supercharged to stop Peyton, and the weather and crowd and dungees shackles aided them. I also think The Jet Defense played bigtime and Ben's hand was banged up causing his ball to sail. I can imagine the public overreacting to new Englands very impressive win and Pitts lackluster win. Think this is a field goal game in New Englands favor. That said if the line gets inflated like Im thinking it will I will Take Pitt at +4 and above at home.

So basically for me it is no play root for the Pats. Unless I get 4 or above with Pitt.

Thoughts?

 

[AR182]

clem,

great post !!

the line is based on the public's perception.....& they watched n.e. stop a very powerful indy offense.

i always say that i'm not going to go against parcells & bellichek in big games...so right now i have no bet.and i'm not crazy about betting pitt. with a shaky rookie qb.

but here is something that i just read....

road playoff teams who allowed 6< points in their previous game are 5-20 su & 6-18-1 ats, including 1-10 su & 2-9 ats if they scored 20< points in that game.


good luck.

 

[hedgehog]

Pitt will win the game

Pitt will win the game

I actually think Pitt will win the game, the oddsmakers are overreacting based on last week. The number one team in the NFL 15-1 is an underdog in the championship game in their own backyard? Something smellls... I will take Pitt on the moneyline and the points whatever they are at gametime. May go up to 4 or 5 by kickoff..

 

[MadJack]

if the dog didn't stop to take a shit he would have caught the rabbit.

that said......you might be right. the line would be different but....

it doesn't change the fact that NE will win this game easily.

no contest, boys, NE rolls.

can't wait to see the prop lines, like NE -7.5, NE -10.5, NE -17.5

i might have to take a shot here.

good luck!

 

[gjn23]

madjack...exactly

if you were going to be ne at +2 (line sat night) and were pretty confident that ne would beat pit..... is -3 THAT big of a diff????

i say no...i'll lay it

 

[JCam]

Hey Guys..

I gotta agree with Clem here with regard to Pittsburgh opening up as a dog being due to public perception, I do agree that the pats should be the favorite over the Steelers because of the fact that the pats have won two of the past three SB's.

However, when taking into consideration the natural advantage of having homefield and thus the standard FG that must be factored in...I just can not see the pats as being 6 points better than Pittsburgh, if the line had opened up at a "Pk'em" that would have made the pats in essence 3 point favorites and would have been about right.

Personally I think by making the pats the favorites this puts the pressure squarely on their shoulders and off of Pittsburghs shoulders and allows the Steelers to enter this game loose.

Taking on a pass oriented dome team that had the NFL's 28th ranked defense on your home grass and beating them is one thing but to then go on the road and take on a power rushing team that also has the NFL's #1 ranked defense is an animal of a different type and color.

I see Pittsburgh winning this game quite easily in straight up fashion...

 

[cavy1]

What is your play if NE goes down to 2 or 1 or even a pk?



cavy1

 

[lenniethelock]

its pitts year jack,dont do it!!!!!

 

[Blackman]

can't wait to see the prop lines, like NE -7.5, NE -10.5, NE -17.5

Jan-23 655 NEW ENGLAND (PROP) -14? +450
6:30 PM 656 PITTSBURGH (PROP) +14? -600


Jan-23 657 NEW ENGLAND (PROP) -10? +300
6:30 PM 658 PITTSBURGH (PROP) +10? -360


Jan-23 659 NEW ENGLAND (PROP) -7? +195
6:30 PM 660 PITTSBURGH (PROP) +7? -235


Jan-23 661 NEW ENGLAND (PROP) +3? -240
6:30 PM 662 PITTSBURGH (PROP) -3? +200


Jan-23 663 NEW ENGLAND (PROP) +7? -600
6:30 PM 664 PITTSBURGH (PROP) -7? +450