nfl sunday title game

[fletcher]

Going with the steelers ML +140 I figure if they win points won't matter.

They are home, it will be very loud, they have by far the better deff, the better running backs, the better wide outs, qb is a concern. Yes big ben has done well but you can count BB will have a few tricks to try and rattle him. But it will come down to line play on both sides of the ball and the steelers are better in that department and will show in the running game.

 

[PaTsJaMM]

Fletcher,

Not trying to bash but why do you feel Pittsburghs' defense is better "by far" than New Englands? They were both #1 and #2 in the AFC with Pitt allowing 16.3PPG to New Englands' 15.7. Pretty damn close. Pitt ranks better but not "by far".

As far as running backs go, Corey Dillon ran for 1635 yards (4.7avg) to Bettis' 941 (3.8) so how does Pittsburgh have better running backs? Even if you take into account Staley 830 (4.3), Kevin Faulk had more yards per carry than he did (4.7)

I think it will be a close game but the coaching and QB experience will definitely favor NE and will be the reason the Pats win.

GL to you (except on Sunday You are a great capper and I am sad to see you on opposite sides cuz I'd feel much better if you were on my Pats side

 

[TheCooler]

fletcher. highly respected you are. to say pitt has the better running backs is not accurate. the difference in the 1st meeting this year was NO CORY DILLION. bb will devise the game plan and ben will falter. good luck.

 

[The Big Tease]

I think what Eric is saying is that Pittsburgh has the better RUNNING GAME. Not necessarily the better running backs. Corey Dillon is probably more talented than Staley or Bettis.....but if you have watched the Steeler games this year, you will notice that by the time the defense has a chance to tackle the Pitt running backs.....they have already gained 2 yards.....

If you notice....the Steelers do not have a great yards per carry number.....but they NEVER lose yardage, and almost always gain at least a couple yards.....hen you run as much as they do......you are almost ALWAYS looking at getting a first down, OR 3rd and short. It makes life a LOT easier for Ben. If the Steelers can do what they have done ALL YEAR, they will win this game as well.

 

[edludes]

Agree with you Fletcher.Pitts O line play is what really impressed me about them this year.They ran thru the Pats like swiss cheese the first time.The pressure won't be on Rothlisberger if they can do this again.(It is a pet peeve of mine when a handicapper posts an objective opinion on a game in what is supposed to be a handicapping forum,and the fans of the team the guy picked against proceed to "fan it up" with opposite side clutter in his thread.Just start your own thread ,maybe with the title"We're#1 now and forever" or something original like that).GL Sunday

 

[Pujo21]

pitt LOOKS TEMPTING,, BUT THAT PANSY KICKER ON THE JETS LEFT PITT BACK IN THE HUNT..

PATS HAD 4 TURNOVERS 1ST GAME.... THIS WILL BE THE MUTHA OF ALL GAMES.

GOOD LUCK

 

[IntenseOperator]

Got to keep an eye on Ben's finger. I was the 1st to say it was a BS story when PF posted about it over the weekend.

I don't care how good Pitts running game is. A one sided offensive attack will be easy pickings for Bellichek and Co.

NE isn't favored in this one for no reason. (nor were they over the weekend)

 

[ocelot]

I'll take the Pats laying less than a FG thank you very much. How many Super Bowls do they have to win to get respect?

Rookie QB is not good odds for Pitts.

 

[PaTsJaMM]

>>It is a pet peeve of mine when a handicapper posts an objective opinion on a game in what is supposed to be a handicapping forum,and the fans of the team the guy picked against proceed to "fan it up" with opposite side clutter in his thread.<<

First of all Edludes my post was not a bash at all, it was a simple question to FLETCHER (NOT YOU) about his feelings on certain areas of the upcoming game. I was under the "misconception" that a forum was supposed to be a place where discussions and questions could be raised within a thread. Silly me.

I value Fletchers' opinion, he is undoubtedly the top capper here and although I will probably make a "homer" pick anyway, I like to weigh the intangibles (of which Fletcher is far more adept than I am at identifying) and the "stats" side by side. The Big Tease brought up the point that apparently was what Fletcher was refering to. That is what I was asking Fletcher about. Not a flame war, which is apparently what you are looking for.

I will continue to post as I see fit Edludes. If that hurts your feelings, well perhaps you should just skip over my posts next time.

Thanks Big Tease & Fletcher and all the other posters for your VALUED input on the game.

 

[fletcher]

pat sorry it took so long to get back to you but was out all day doing stuff, TBT had it right i meant steelers have the better running game not back per back, and it is because of the line. hey it's ok to be a fam hell I am a redskin fan have been all my life, but overall running game was what i was talking about, and that does not just count for yards it counts for blocking on passes and blocking down field on slants and saleing play fakes. good luck to you as a fan for your team and if you bet then would wish you good luck but can't i have the other side, and dillion did not make the difference in the first game, pittsburgh deff and passing and running did. deff more then anything, cower is not out matched coaching by bb as you might think,they are both above avg head coaches.

lets keep this nice no fights just open to all and no one is wrong with what ever they feel. hell hope we get all kinds of people posting in here on there thoughts, I think halftime might be the real money maker.

and pt ok to make a homer bet this time of the year hell the books are making the money after reg season and if they tell you they don't like the book who said the have had 100's of people turn 50 bucks in their casino into 10" of thousands, yeah right.

This is the time to be a fan if your team is there just play small and for fun. my play is not as a fan but also not 2 or 3 dimes either.

 

[gardenweasel]

the steeler physicality is why they match up well with new england....

i doubt you`ll se a time of possesion differential this weekend like you saw last weekend vs the colts....the colts just don`t match up well with new england...

that said,if new england beats the squeelers in pittsburgh,they will win their 3rd super bowl......

this shapes up as a battle of wills...along the line of scrimmage....

i`m really looking forward to this one...

 

[PaTsJaMM]

Thanks for your response Fletch! I totally agree with you the Pitt running game as a whole is probably more effective than New Englands when the line is included. I really think offensive line is our biggest weakness. Even in the Colts game their defenders were in the backfield quite a bit pressuring Brady. Thank God that guy has the pocket presence he does lol. You are right about Dillon also, I think we still would have lost that game even if he was playing. I don't believe he's had alot of success against Pittsburgh throughout his career as a Bengal but I am praying that being with a winning team will change that lol.

It'll definitely be a game to watch. I hope my Pats didn't expell TOO MUCH energy in the colts game, although I doubt BB will let them get too cocky. I still fear the Steelers even though their game against the Jets was so close. Damn, just one field goal away from hosting the Jets at home instead of going to Heinz :-(

GL to you Fletch, and thanks for all you bring to Madjacks!

 

[cavy1]

Question for you Fletcher
(no bashing meant - just looking for clarification)
Wasn't it you that said that Pittsburg would not get by the 1st round of playoffs?
Just wondering why you like them now. And
if I am not mistaken, I think you liked them last week also?

cavy1

 

[fletcher]

Because of there play the whole last year I did not think they would win 8 games , but got to go with a team who has faith , and they did not have to play a first round wc game , I never thought they would close like they did,also did not think jets would miss those kicks. Some teams you just read wrong early and they turn into a team destion to win it all due to 1 play, pats/raiders fg could name about 7 plays like that and team went on and took it all.

No one from pittsburgh thought they would, we have won many rings but last 10 years have had chances to move on and even win the one for the thumb but was not to be, so that sticks in the minds with people from pittsburgh.

Like i said if they win it will be staright up line won't matter. I played them alot this year they were getting points and i took them on service for most of the first part of they year , then started useing them in totals when lines caught up, and hit some low total overs with them.

I might say lot of things on some games then be it gut or something I saw week before or in print, radio or talks from others will change who I like, and that is the turn around with steelers and they have won more money for me and service this year then any other team hands down no-one was close same a chargers and denver was the team who loved to kill a game when we played them be it side or total.

left out a key word last before year

 

[fletcher]

that was a good question cavy hope you understand what I mean in the response.

good luck

Eric

 

[baby johnson]

thanks for clarifying things with a vintage fletcher response

you are the man generally speaking, specially when you decifer the real meaning of the question in question. to answer anything just anyway would naturally be in consistent with a retorical thought by someone with your thought-process

bj

 

[blue]

fletch, thanks for all u do on this mj board. i don't post much, but i have read this board for a good while. i agree with you on pitt winning this game.

- i believe weather played a major role in the colts/pats game. that game is just not a good measuring stick for current pats team and this game, imo. dome team in those conditions. the miami game may be a better measuring stick.

- i love pats/bellichek/brady/dillon/bruski the whole team thing. but there are major problems for pats this year.
-2ndary injuries
-coaching distractions
-most importantant, russ grimm of our redskins (hogs) fame, line coach for pitt. espn.com had interesting article last week about the final 8 teams offensive lines. (wish i knew how to cut/paste it here) pitt's line by far has the most snaps together as a unit. i gotta believe that playin a cold weather game vs. pitt's line and ground game is going to be so different than vs. colts.
-do u put any credence in the whole pitt organization focused for this game because of recent pitt disappointments. my point is that a team like san diego considers this season a success because of all the failure in recent years they endured. on the other hand, you gotta feel that at 15-1, bye week, few major injuries, no public coaching issues, HF wrapped up early, the table can not be set any better. i gotta think losing this game would be major dissappointment for all of pitt, even though many expect bellichek to walk on water in the near future, i don't think cowher and crew see him that way. in fact your point about except for a few key calls/plays (ie: brady fumble/incompletion vs. oak playoffs) the name of the champion for last 5 years would be very different. that is not to disrespect NE but it's reality about the fine line between champions and runners up in the nfl.

-hunger factor -- jerome bettis/cowher, inspite of cowhers W/L record, he still hasn't won the big one. coming in 2nd vs. cowboys (even though he did cover spread) has to only make him that much more hungry/dangerous - focused. there is an incredible energy from jerome bettis. he is strong-smart- HUNGRY, he knows it is now or probably never. he wants this real bad, and i expect him to be the difference maker.

again thanks for all you do on this board, gl on pitt this wk. i think it may be a double digit pitt win, that is coming from someone who really admires the pats. i just think you got this one figured right. if ne kicks pitts butt, at pitt, with these injuries, coaching distractions as a current SB champ, they r truly great, and i expect bellichek to turn water into beverage after the game.

 

[Dizzayton]

Miami game measuring stick?

Coaching distractions?

Secondary Issues?

I find much of your reasoning suspect.

Let me tell you that you can't use a regular season game as a measuring stick for this Pats team, PERIOD. The Colts should've easily beat them in the regular season, yet were crushed in the playoffs. Obviously this team comes to play when it counts most.

There are no coaching distractions for this game.

Secondary issues are non existent with this team. Those injuries occurred long ago. It looks as though Seymour will return as well.

Not saying you are wrong about Pitt winning, but your reasoning is questionable. Good luck.

 

[blue]

dont' mean to argue, but let me ask you

-weis going to notre dame, not a distraction at all?
-romeo probably going to clevland, not a distration at all?
-and yes, the miami defense is more likely the type of defense the pats will face then the 29th ranked colts (never finish a tackle) colts

troy, who i personally love, playing def/2ndary, suspect reasoning?

when u say this pats team "comes to play when it counts most", isnt that team u refer to a different team than this one. wasn't ty law a heart and soul on that team you are referring to. this particular group of players has not faced play-off championship pressure as a group.

hey pats may run away with this game, there is no such thing as a lock or sure thing, but there are opporutnities we look for. this line is obviously an over reaction to perception of pitt struggling vs. jets and pats rolling colts. imo, weather makes the colts/pats of no capping value, and without a punt return, well, special teams kept the jets from getting rolled.

i have no problem with you disagreeing with me on any subject. but to say pitt will win, but my "reasoning is suspect" sounds a lot like a clic mentallity of jumping on a new poster. there are probably a lot of good sports minds who read this board and would post good thoughts on this board except for concern for being belittled by people like you.. why go thru the bs, we just sit back and glean as much info as we can. but the bad thing is, the more ideas are exchanged the better the board.

the smart thing to do is to encourage people like me to post, and then just fade me, if i re-inforce your info on "joe publics" like me whose reasoning you find suspect. i find it very elitest to say the team i suport u think will win but a mear poster of 36 times, what could i know, my reasoning is suspect.

it is amazing, i have never seen a class act like a fletcher, raymond, and many other proven cappers on this board, belittle anyone, much less a new poster. disagreement, and debate can spark ideas that can help us all think, and get that slight edge needed to make a profit over the long term at this. for me i am constantly searching for information. how many times have i lost a bet, later found one key piece of info that would have either had me off the bet or on the other side.

two incidents come to mind quickly, about 5 years ago i was in vegas and placed a large wager on bret/green bay. lost the bet and then on espn they talked about his poor records in domes. it was an expensive way to learn a key piece of info that i have used and never forgotten. i may not always bet against bret in domes, but i do not bet on him in a dome, another time in vegas i bet large of a great cowboy team at new york giants (giants seemed weak at time) cowboys did not cover, and then i hear on espn how cowboys historically struggle at nyg. i said dam, that would have been nice to know before i bet on them. just this week, it seemed wake should walk on fsu, during game announcers start talking about fsu giant killers at home, (they beat wake at fsu last year) i had forgotten that even though i live in acc country.

my point is, the more info, the greater chance of winning. regardless of who brings the info. there is a lot to be learned even from perenial losers. i recently heard of a possible success seminar that would feature people who are very unsuccessful to answer certain questions. the thought being; learn what not to do, how not to think.

i hesitated to even post ideas recently, but i have felt bad about constantly taking from this board and never sharing any ideas. sorry for cluttering up your thread fletcher and MJ, and sorry for being so sensitive dizzyton, you probably are a great sports mind and a great guy, just wanted to be honest with you. it is very intimidating to a new poster to be called out for "suspect reasoning". it is very belittling and a tremendous put down. i can't respect myself and not speak up.

 

[Dizzayton]

Just my opinion. Nothing personal. I am no Lem Banker, just a recreational gambler at best.