super bowl systems & angles.....

[AR182]

this super bowl system was posted last year on another site.....

if anybody has the chance to do the calculations & posting the results here....it would be appreciated.


Super Bowl System (32-3-2 ATS)



Here is a system that some have used for the last few years. It did lose last year with Oakland. The Oakland loss was the only loss in the last 19 Super Bowls and is 32-3-2 ATS. Hank Stram had a system that was somewhat like this but this one has been changed to add numbers that can be researched.



Use Regular season stats only. Only 1 team should get points from each category. Stats can be found at different websites. Obviously, New England will get 10 points for winning a Super Bowl in the last 3 years and get another 8 since Carolina has not been in a Super Bowl. (It looks as if the Pats will be a big favorite in this system)





Points

10 If team has won the Super Bowl in last 3 years

8 if an opponent is going to their first Super Bowl

8 to the team that allows fewer defensive rushes

7 give to team with most offensive rushes

7 award the team with best overall record (straight up)

5 to the team with the lowest def. rush average per carry

4 give 4 pts. to the team with the better ATS record

4 to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards

4 to the team with the best NET kick-punt TD returns

3.5 team with the best yds per pass attempt

3.5 to the team that gave up the fewest points

3.5 allowed the fewest rushing TD's

3 award 3 points to the team with the most sacks

2.5 team with the fewest offensive pass attempts

2 team with the best NET punts (total) on the season

1.5 add to the team with the best avg. per off. rush

1 add 1 to the team with the best completion percent



System results:



Here are the system results for the last 19 Super Bowls showing the point totals, spread, difference and actual score.



19 SF 57.5 (-3.5) over Miami 12 42 WIN 38-16

20 Chi 45.5 (-10) over NE 6 29.5 WIN 46-10

21 NYG 54.5 (-9.5) over Den 13 32 WIN 39-20

22 Wash 43.5 (+3) over Den 12 34.5 WIN 42-10

23 Cin 28 (+7) over SF 27 8 WIN 16-20

24 SF 40.5 (-12.5) over Den 20 8.5 WIN 55-10

25 NYG 33.5 (+7) over Buff 24 16.5 WIN 20-19

26 Wash 53 (-7) over Buff 6.5 39.5 WIN 37-24

27 Dal 35.5 (-6.5) over Buff 21 8 WIN 52-17

28 Dal 36 (-10) over Buff 19 7 WIN 30-13

29 SF 53 (-18) over SD 14.5 20.5 WIN 49-26

30 Pitt 29.5 (+13.5) over Dal 40 3 WIN 17-27

31 GB 50.5 (-14) over NE 9 27.5 PUSH 35-21

32 Den 35.5 (+11.5) over GB 34 13 WIN 31-24

33 Den 37.5 (-7) over Atl 26 4.5 WIN 34-19

34 STL 51 (-7) over Tn 9.5 34.5 Push 23-16

35 Bal 38 (-3) over NYG 29.5 5.5 WIN 34-7

36 NE 28.5 (+14) over STL 41 1.5 WIN 20-17

37 Oak 37 (-4) over TB 20.5 16.5 Loss 21-48

Looks like after Super Bowl 31, things got a little tighter with the SB loss in 38, if info above about NE being a big fav and Carolina cover.

i will post other systems when i get a chance...

 

[bombercoops]

Impressive system record. Thanks for posting this AR!

 

[GM]

Points

10 If team has won the Super Bowl in last 3 years New England

8 if an opponent is going to their first Super Bowl Neither, though it has been ages for Philly - none of these players was in the league last time the Eagles were in a Superbowl

8 to the team that allows fewer defensive rushes New England

7 give to team with most offensive rushes New England

7 award the team with best overall record (straight up) New England

5 to the team with the lowest def. rush average per carry New England

4 give 4 pts. to the team with the better ATS record New England

4 to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards New England

4 to the team with the best NET kick-punt TD returns New England, 1 to 0

3.5 team with the best yds per pass attempt New England

3.5 to the team that gave up the fewest points Tie - both allowed exactly 260

3.5 allowed the fewest rushing TD's New England

3 award 3 points to the team with the most sacks Philadelphia

2.5 team with the fewest offensive pass attempts New England

2 team with the best NET punts (total) on the season New England

1.5 add to the team with the best avg. per off. rush Philadelphia

1 add 1 to the team with the best completion percent Philadelphia

That's how I figured it. Looks like New England 60.5, Philadelphia 5.5 .

 

[GM]

The above is for the regular season only. Too much work to add in the playoff games. One-sided enough it won't matter though.

 

[ocelot]

I am unclear on a couple of these factors like

NET Penalty Yards and Net Total Punts.

First, I can only find league stats on penalty yards listed by team as offensive and defensive.

On the Punts, does the system mean the team who punts MORE gets the 2 points? That seems backwards.

 

[The Big Tease]

HOLY SHEET!!!! I would love to bet Philly in this game.....but after this it will be tough

 

[AR182]

gm,

thanks very much it's greatly appreciated.....

including the playoffs.....

the pats have given up 290 points, while the eagles have given up 284 points.

i would also give the eagles the 8 points for going to their first super bowl....since it's been about 25 years since their last super bowl game.

so the scores are....

n.e.....60.5
phil.....17

good luck.

 

[AR182]

ocelot,

i would think that net total punts is the team with the fewest punts & the same with penalties.

please let me know if i'm reading this wrong.

 

[AR182]

the following was an article from another site.....thought some might find this interesting....

Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Dec. 30-Jan. 5, 2005


Want a precise gauge of how teams will perform in the playoffs? Want to know who?s likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy?

Here?s how you do it.

Strip away the dead-weight detritus of regular-season games against the likes of Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland. These games mean nothing come playoff time. Then look at how playoff teams performed against quality opponents ? that is, against teams like those they?ll face in the postseason.

You?re left with a stark, naked look at the essence of a team ? minus the mid-season stat-padders against NFL also-rans. Who fixes bayonets when their ammo runs low? Who cowers in their foxhole and lifts the white flag? The quality wins quotient will tell you.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts define ?quality wins? as any victory against a team with a winning record; a ?quality team? or ?quality opponent? simply refers to any team with a winning record.

You can marvel at a team?s red zone performance or proficiency against the run. You can calculate passing stats until your abacus ignites from the friction. But, simply put, those stats mean absolutely nothing in the postseason if a team can?t consistently beat quality opponents. After all, you must beat three to four quality opponents in the postseason to win the Super Bowl. If a team has trouble doing it in the regular season, they?ll have trouble doing it in the postseason. Playoff equations don?t get any easier than that.

Exposed under the harsh light of the Cold, Hard Football Facts quality wins quotient, for example, Peyton Manning and the juggernaut Indy offense look merely mortal. Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers look hopeless.

We examined the schedule of every playoff team to see how they performed against quality opponents. Armed with nothing more than a team?s record against quality opponents, and their average performance against those teams, we determined with a high degree of certainty the top Super Bowl contenders. Here they are, ranked in order from the most likely Super Bowl champion to the most clearly outclassed playoff pretender. It may come as no surprise that only two teams enter the postseason with a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl title.

THE CONTENDERS
New England ? 7-1 against quality opponents; avg. score, 24.6-14.7 (+9.9)
Fret all you want about New England's secondary, but no team enters the playoffs with more games and more wins against quality opponents under its belt. In other words, the Patriots are the most battle-tested team in the postseason. New England also boasts the most impressive average scoring margin against quality opponents. Hanging over New England?s head, of course, is the memory a 34-20 regular-season loss at Pittsburgh. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year with a leading rusher, Antowain Smith, who averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Corey Dillon averages 4.7 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh ? 6-1; 22.4-15.1 (+7.3)
The Steelers looked strong against quality opponents, trailing only New England with six quality wins, but they faced just three teams all season that made the playoffs. Of course, Pittsburgh passed those tests with flying colors, posting a 3-0 record and outscoring New England, Philadelphia and the N.Y. Jets by an average score of 26.0-9.7, by the far the best performance in the league against playoff-bound teams. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Steelers average just 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, 18th best in the NFL regular season, but lead the league in attempts per game.

THE PRETENDERS
Atlanta ? 2-1; 29.3-25.3 (+4.0)
The Falcons faced the easiest schedule of any playoff team (opponents were 111-145). But Atlanta boasts the NFC?s most impressive record against top competition. In fact, Atlanta?s point differential against quality opponents is better than its point differential against all opponents (21.2-21.1). With Philly?s Terrell Owens hobbled and the Eagles limping to the finish line, the Falcons are the team to beat in the NFC. Yes, it?s a sad commentary on the state of the conference. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Falcons are just +3 in scoring differential (340-337). The narrowest scoring margin by any Super Bowl participant was +14 (1979 Rams, 323-309).

Philadelphia ? 2-1; 21.7-18.0 (+3.7)
The Eagles inflated their regular-season record (13-3) facing a substandard schedule this season. Opponents were a combined 116-140 and the Eagles faced just three quality opponents all season. They were hammered by Pittsburgh (15-1), squeaked by Baltimore (9-7) by five points and crushed Green Bay (10-6) which, you will soon see, is no great accomplishment. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Eagles faced four teams that made the postseason (Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay and St. Louis and outscored those opponents by a mere 1 point per game (21.0-20.0).

Indianapolis ? 4-3; 26.4-25.1 (+1.3)
The hand-wringing in New England has already begun. ?How do you stop the mighty Colts offense?? Well, the Colts don?t look so mighty when stripped of their stat-padding performances against Detroit, Chicago and Houston. In fact, five playoff teams posted a better scoring differential against quality opponents. Another thing to keep in mind when you marvel at the Indy offense: New England boasts a coach who has engineered the greatest defensive performances in modern NFL history. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The worst defense ever to win a Super Bowl (1983 Raiders) surrendered 21.1 PPG. The Colts surrender 21.9 PPG.

Denver ? 2-3; 21.4-19.0 (+2.4)
Denver did not beat a single quality opponent on the road all season. To make the Super Bowl, they?ll have to beat three quality opponents on the road. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Only one NFC team, Philadelphia, posted a better scoring differential than Denver?s +77 (381 PF, 304 PA).

St. Louis ? 4-4; 22.6-28.9 (-6.3)
We were surprised to find that the gutless Rams posted the most quality wins and faced the toughest schedule of any NFC playoff team this season (opponents were a combined 125-131). However, when St. Louis lost to quality opponents it was by an average of more than 21 points per game. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: St. Louis? lone quality win on the road came at Seattle in Week Five.

New York Jets ? 3-5; 17.6-18.9 (-1.3)
The Jets were haunted all season by the notion that they can?t win the big game. In the wildcard round they go to the site of their lone quality road win of the season: San Diego. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Curtis Martin led the league in rushing this year but only two players, Emmitt Smith and Terrell Davis, won a rushing championship and a Super Bowl in the same season.

San Diego ? 2-4; 24.3-25.0 (-0.7)
The Chargers had a nice regular-season run, but the postseason will include no more than one victory. San Diego faced three of the AFC?s other five playoff teams in the regular season and lost to all three (though split with Denver). Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Chargers did not record a single quality road win this season.

 

[AR182]

here is another article from the same site....

Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Jan. 20-26, 2005


(Note from the chief angry troll: We'll dissect the AFC and NFC title games like an 8th-grade biology lab frog later today. In the meantime, sit back, enjoy the parade and count your winnings.)

***

The quality wins quotient gets paraded out here more often than the Gaelic Column of Pipes & Drums.

Why not? The quality wins quotient cuts a nifty jib, looks good in a kilt and can blow its own horn with the best of them.

The quality wins quotient is now an eye-popping 9-1 in the playoffs, though it did suffer its first setback with Atlanta?s 27-10 loss to Philly in the NFC title game.

The quality wins quotient was hardly surprised in that game, however. In fact, the match-up of Atlanta and Philly featured the narrowest quality wins differential of any playoff pairing this year.

Both teams entered the game with 2-1 records against quality opponents*. Atlanta got the nod from the quality wins quotient by virtue of a slightly better point differential. The Falcons outscored their three quality opponents by an average of 4.0 points per game. Philly had outscored its quality opponents by 3.7 points per game. But that most narrow of advantages for Atlanta was not enough to overcome a desperate 14-3 Philly squad playing at home and in its fourth consecutive conference title game.

While the NFC title contest featured the narrowest quality wins margin of any playoff pairing this year, Super Bowl XXXIX features one of the greatest disparities.

? New England is 9-1 against quality opponents (and 19-1 over the past two seasons)
? Philly is 3-1 against quality opponents
? New England has outscored its 10 quality opponents by an average of 11.0 PPG (25.8-14.8)
? Philly has outscored its four quality opponents by an average of 7.0 PPG (23.0-16.0)
? New England?s quality opponents posted a combined record of 116-56 (.674)
? Philly?s quality opponents posted a combined record of 47-22 (.681).

A number of readers disagree with our definition of quality wins. So, too, do some in the media. Bob Neumeier of sports radio WEEI 850 in Boston, for example, believes that more credence should be placed on scoring differential.

After all, Seattle qualifies as a quality team by our definition with its 9-8 record this year. But Seattle surrendered more points (400) than it scored (390). Using the point-differential methodology, Seattle would not qualify as a quality team.

It?s certainly a legitimate argument. During the Patriots "5th Quarter" postgame show Sunday night, Neumeier posted the results of his quality wins methodology and showed very positive results. But we?ll stand by our deceptively simple formula. It?s 9-1 straight up in the playoffs; 8-2 against the spread (Atlanta failed to cover against Philly and Pittsburgh failed to cover against the Jets); and accurately called for a historic three straight victories by road underdogs on wildcard weekend.

Bottom line: the quality wins quotient has been deadly accurate in the postseason and calls for a sizable victory by New England in Super Bowl XXXIX. So kick back and enjoy the show. There will be a bigger parade in two weeks.

* The Cold, Hard Football Facts define ?quality wins? as any victory against a team with a winning record; a ?quality team? or ?quality opponent? simply refers to any team with a winning record.

 

[ocelot]

AR great info!

Thanks. Back to that first Super Bowl System for the moment.
I believe it was devised by some notable by the name of Steele.

I think you misread the "points for a team going to 1st Super Bowl" part. It says if your opponent is going to 1st Super Bowl then you get 8 points.

I think you are right about the Net Punts and Net Yards.

Thanks again for this Quality Wins System.

 

[baby johnson]

very very helpful,thanks for the info

bj

 

[Blitz]

AR182 I visit that site also, great site...

 

[GM]

gm,

thanks very much it's greatly appreciated.....

including the playoffs.....

the pats have given up 290 points, while the eagles have given up 284 points.

i would also give the eagles the 8 points for going to their first super bowl....since it's been about 25 years since their last super bowl game.

so the scores are....

n.e.....60.5
phil.....17

good luck.

AR,
That second one says 8 points for a team if their OPPONENT is going to their first Superbowl. So if you consider this to be Philly's first, you have to give 8 more to New England, making the count 68.5 to 9.

(edit from the Department of Redundancy Department) Oops. Looks like ocelot already pointed that out.

 

[ocelot]

So, does anyone know where you can find NET penalty yds by team?

 

[AR182]

ocelot,

sorry but at this point i don't know where to find ney penalty yards.

here is an interesting article about how the line was determined...

DRAWING LINE IN SAND

By STEVE SERBY

January 26, 2005 -- Here is how Vegas made the Patriots 7-point favorites over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX:
Let's start with the three biggest individual influences on the point spread: Terrell Owens, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

Owens may or may not return from his fractured fibula/ankle injury. "We pretty much made the line without him being in or not being effective," said Bob Scucci, sports book manager at the Stardust. "How effective is he gonna be after this long of a layoff? If we knew he was gonna be 100 per cent, we'd be looking at six instead of seven."

Belichick is in a league of his own in Vegas. "This is the first year I've actually factored in the coach in the point spread as much as I ever have any other year," Scucci said. "Here's a guy that just figures out a game plan to fit the opponent he's playing and he seems to come up with a winning plan. And he's got the personnel around him he can change from game to game."

Asked what other coaches had a similar impact on the line, Scucci said: "Bill Parcells did when he was coaching in his previous stints. This year it came back to bite us; the Cowboys underachieved."

Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Michael Vick, in that order, are the quarterbacks who impact the number the most, followed by Brady and then Donovan McNabb. Brady's Super Bowl experience gives him an edge over McNabb.

"Composure's gonna be a big part of it," Scucci said. "That's gonna be an unknown for McNabb. This is his first shot at it."

The Stardust hung 6 before the AFC and NFC championship games, but the public yawned.

"The Eagles looked pretty good in their victory; they shut down Atlanta's offense completely, they shut down Michael Vick, their offense looked well-balanced," Scucci said. "New England has been favored in every single game this year and still ended up covering 13 of those games. We knew New England should be a little more than 6, thinking 61/2 would be the right number. We thought 61/2 would draw Eagle money."

It didn't. "Everybody bet the Panthers [who covered] plus seven last year; I think the Eagles have a better team than the Panthers," Scucci said.

So the line was moved to 7 after the Patriots finished off the Steelers. "Immediately following the AFC game the money started coming in on New England," Scucci said.

But the Eagle money has not flocked in. "I'm really surprised with two teams that can play real good defense that we're not getting a lot of action on the underdog in this situation," Scucci said.

Would he move it up from 7?

"It would be tough for us to move it to 71/2," Scucci said. "It's such a key number. If they want to bet New England we just go into the game needing Philadelphia. I'd be real hesitant to move it to 71/2."

In his statistical analysis of the teams, at a neutral site, Scucci says the Patriots would be 41/2-point favorites on paper over the Eagles during the regular-season. The Pats are 13-4-1 (2-0 in the playoffs) against the spread. The Eagles are 11-7 (2-0 in the playoffs). The over-under last year was 38; this time it's 48.

"To put up that many points on Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, and you look at the bad weather too, you just figure [the Patriots] to put up as many points in Jacksonville," Scucci said.

 

[GM]

(edit) Again, redundant. I really must learn how to read.

 

[AR182]

my thoughts on the super bowl.....

bellichek is very good at taking one thing away from an offense.it's a good bet that something will be westbrook.if that's the case.....w/o owens, can the phil. passing attack cause n.e. trouble ?

on the other side of the ball....with phil. having a very good secondary....i see corey dillion running the ball about 25 or 30 times, because i think n.e. will be able to run the ball on philly.

the more that i think about it, the more i like the under...or tease n.e.with the under.

however,i read last year that with 2 weeks between the championship games & the super bowl.....a high percentage of the games go over the total.

 

[badjab]

on the other side of the ball....with phil. having a very good secondary....i see corey dillion running the ball about 25 or 30 times, because i think n.e. will be able to run the ball on philly.

the more that i think about it, the more i like the under...or tease n.e.with the under.

man...I was thinking exactly the same thing. I just can't figure out how Philly is going to score in this game. I think Carolina had the more diverse offense last year and they were able to open it up with some long pass plays. Take Westbrook out of the equation and it becomes a long day for McNabb. This game seems like it should be a cakewalk...something like Pats 30 Eagles 10...but...for whatever unknown reason (and against all logic), I am hesitant to pull the trigger on NE because I have a weird feeling that Philly gets the win. :help:

 

[AR182]

got this from another site....

Here is a breakdown of each Super Bowl played, listed in order from the first one through to last year?s Patriots/Panthers matchup.

The first team listed is the ATS winner, followed by the score and the Over/Under result.

1. Packers ? 14 vs. Chiefs; Packers won 35 ? 14, over 40.

2. Packers ? 13? vs. Raiders; Packers won 33 ? 14, and over 43.

3. NY Jets + 18 vs. Colts; NY Jets won 16 ? 7, under 40.

4. Chiefs + 12 vs. Vikings; Chiefs won 23 ? 7, under 39.

5. Colts + 2? vs. Cowboys; Colts won 16 ? 13, under 36.

6. Cowboys ? 6 vs. Dolphins; Cowboys won 24 ? 3, under 34.

7. Dolphins + 1? vs. Redskins; Dolphins won 14 ? 7, under 33.

8. Dolphins ? 6? vs. Vikings; Dolphins won 24 ? 7, under 33.

9. Steelers ? 3 vs. Vikings; Steelers won 16 ? 6, under 33.

10. Cowboys + 7 vs. Steelers; Cowboys won ATS 17 ? 21 (but lost straight up), over 36.

11. Raiders ? 4? vs. Vikings; Raiders won 32 ? 14, over 38.

12. Cowboys ? 6 vs. Broncos; Cowboys won 27 ? 10, under 39.

13. Steelers ? 3 1/2 vs. Cowboys; Steelers won 35 ? 31, over 37.

14. Steelers ? 10? vs. LA Rams; Steelers won 31 ? 19, over 36.

15. Raiders + 3 vs. Eagles; Raiders won 27 ? 10, under 37? and a push for some at 37.

16. 49ers pick vs. Bengals; 49ers won 26 ? 21, under 48.

17. Redskins + 3 vs. Dolphins; Redskins won 27 ? 17, over 36?.

18. Raiders + 3 vs. Redskins; Raiders won 38 ? 9, under 48.

19. 49ers ? 3? vs. Dolphins; 49ers won 38 ? 16, over 53? points.

20. Bears ? 10 vs. Patriots; Bears won 46 ? 10, over 37?.

21. Giants ? 9? vs. Broncos; Giants won 39 ? 20, over 40.

22. Redskins + 3 vs. Broncos; Redskins won 42- 10, over 47.

23. Bengals + 7 vs. 49ers; Bengals won ATS 16 ? 20 (but lost straight up), under 48.

24. 49ers ? 12 vs. Broncos; 49ers won 55 ? 10, over 48.

25. Giants + 7 vs. Bills; Giants won 20 ? 19, under 40?.

26. Redskins ? 7 vs. Bills; Redskins won 37 ? 24, over 49.

27. Cowboys ? 6? vs. Bills; Cowboys won 52 ? 17, over 44 ?.

28. Cowboys ? 10? vs. Bills; Cowboys won 30 ? 13, under 50?.

29. 49ers ? 18? vs. Chargers; 49ers won 49 ? 26, over 53?.

30. Steelers + 13? vs. Cowboys; Steelers won ATS 17 ? 27 (but lost straight up), under 51.

31. Packers ? 14 vs. Patriots; Packers pushed at 35 ? 21, over 49.

32. Broncos + 11? vs. Packers; Broncos won 31 ? 24, over 49.

33. Broncos ? 7? vs. Falcons; Broncos won 34 ? 19, over 52?.

34. Rams ? 7 vs. Titans; Rams pushed 23 ? 16, under 47?.

35. Ravens ? 3 vs. Giants; Ravens won 34 ? 7, over 33.

36. Patriots + 14 vs. Rams; Patriots won 20 ? 17, under 53.

37. Buccaneers + 4 vs. Raiders; Buccaneers won 48 ? 21, over 44.

38. Panthers +7 vs. Patriots; Panthers won ATS 29-32 (but lost straight up), over 38.