10*under 48.........
i'm well aware of the trend that has the overs covering more than the unders with a 2 week layoff before the super bowl. i hit a 10* over in last years bowl game. but i don't see a high scoring game on sunday.....
first of all, without owens at full strength & with phil's tight end lewis out, i don't think that phil's downfield passing attack will pose the same threat that carolina caused in last year's super bowl.
since imo, phil's wide receiver's wont scare the pats defense, that leaves mcnabb & westbrook as the only legitimate threats that philly has. and as i stated above, bellichick is known to take away at least one thing that the opposing offense does well. and i think that the pats will definitely key on westbrook to try to prevent him from getting into the open field.
i also look for the pats to blitz hard off the left corner, hoping to prevent mcnabb from rolling to his right, which is a big part of the eagles play action packages.
additionally the eagles have had trouble this season against 3-4 defensive schemes, which the pats play, producing their worst offensive outputs against the ravens & the steelers.
on the other side of the ball,philly must get quick pressure on brady from their front 4 or by blitzing.
imo, it will be important for the pats to slow down the eagles pressure by pounding the ball with dillion(who i think has a shot as the mvp) & thus make the philly defense play on its heels.this will eat up the clock.
if you look at the stats, both offenses this year performed worse against good defensive teams while both defenses performed relatively better against good offensive units.
phil.has gone under the total 13 of their 18 games this year. only 3 times has the total been this high in eagle games & 2 of those games were against the vikings, which is not noted for their defense.
until the pitt. game last week, the pats have played 3 straight unders.
the books have a tendency to inflate superbowl totals knowing that the public would rather bet over than under.
i have made 2 major bets this playoff season.....a 8*under in the minn/phil game & 7*under in the atl/phil game.and since i cap this game at 42 total points scored, i will continue to ride the under.
good luck.
