montana
washington
i think this is a pretty intriguing matchup. not because i think montana stands a shot of winning, but because i think it could either be really close... or really ugly. i almost get the feeling that whomever covers the spead will do so by 8 or 10 points. big sky was kinda lame this year but montana is halfway decent and davis and criswell are both nice players. what scares the shit outta me though is that montana turns the ball over way too much (17 times a game). if they are careless with the basketball against washington, the huskies will bust it open and drop 100 on 'em. but if they are disciplined and play at their pace, i think theres a lot of pressure on washington as the #1 seed. its quite a jump to go from the 8/9 game last year to the 1/16 game this year. theyve earned their seed for sure, but im not sure this is a true 1/16 matchup. washington is still learning how to be a national power and montana is a semi-respectable 16 seed. a 79-72 final wouldnt surprise... but then again, 101-73 wouldnt be a shocker either. this will probably be the only 1/16 ill watch.
pacific
pittsburgh
should be a great one to watch and a tough one to bet. my lean would probably be to pacific. the one thing that i think is most glaring about pitt is that they have (deservedly) had a reputation for being a physical defensive team who could completely lock you down and take you out of your offense. but ive yet to consistently see that defensive effort from pitt this season. they have some better shooters than theyve had in the past but their calling card should still be their defense, and it just hasnt been there consistently this year. i think this is a good draw for pacific. they met every challenge teams from the big west threw at them after they entered the top 25. tigers dodged a couple of bullets but still got the job done until the conference tourney final. cant really fault pacific there though. utah state was just on a mission and wouldnt be denied a tourney berth.
certainly wouldnt be an upset by any stretch for pacific to advance. gonna sit this one out until halftime but might very well add UofP at the break
birmingham
louisiana state
hate to be on the fence with so many but this is another coinflip. when both teams bring this A-game, i actually think uab is much better. if the blazers establish their tempo and make it a full-court game, then that will really test lsu's depth out west in boise. lsu can be so good...or so mediocre. im putting uab through in all my brackets but probably wont be better anything on the blazers. hopefully uab carries over the momentum from their tourney run last year but not uncommon for those kinds of teams to flame out early the next year.
utah state
arizona
utah state clearly a sharp play, but i think the current line is almost un-bettable. aggies could be right there the whole way, take a couple cheap fouls and lose the cover in the final 1:00. think its almost better to play the moneyline than the spread. probably sounds ass-backward but i think that usu is either gonna frustrate zona so much that the cats will get bounced.....or arizona will have just enough athleticism to hold off utah state and cover the number late. no doubt utah state has become the 'chic' upset pick for the first round, but that doesnt mean its necessarily a bad thing. this is just a bad draw for arizona. love the way utah state hits the glass and defends the basketball.
