By Brian Mulligan
Courtesy of TCBets.com Racebook
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1. Noble Causeway 2. Don?t Get Mad 3. Wilko
With this year?s Kentucky Derby, one can look like a super idiot. On face value, Bellamy Road?s Wood was one of the most impressive Derby preps of all time. His 120 Beyer was tied with Ghostzapper?s BC Classic win and the he broke a track record that was set by Riva Ridge as an older horse. Purely off that race, he is the one to beat but the feeling is he peaked one race too soon. Sure, he doesn?t have to repeat that kind of figure to still win, but the way the race sets up suggests he will be pressed every step of the way on a very fast pace
You pretty much have to take a stand and either suggest the speed will stick, or that it will fold like a cheap suit. I?m going the cheap suit route. There are no less than 7 that may have designs on the lead but the problem with that is, that everybody sees there is a ton of speed in here and it is possible that somebody will make the top and nobody will challenge him. You could almost hear some riders thinking, Guidry?s going to chase, or Desormeaux will gun, and before you know it, somebody is loping along on the lead. That probably will NOT materialize.
With a race of this magnitude, sometimes the pace is left on the back burner and forgotten about in some corners. The pace is almost always hectic in the Derby because of the moment. Bellamy Road really has not had to fight for a lead in the past and he may have to stalk this time. And if he is in between horses and getting some dirt kicked in his face, he may not fire his best shot.
So let?s go with the horse that, despite not having raced in 5 weeks, has some upside to him. And that?s Noble Causeway. He is brilliantly bred, has a beautiful Beyer progression going with 5 straight improved figures, and he has trained well over the surface. And you get 12-1 on the morning line and Gary Stevens to boot. The home court advantage goes to Don?t Get Mad as he is unbeaten at Churchill. In an era when horses win fresh every single day around the country, Mad is back in a week. If he can find room, he may justify the faith his good trainer Ron Ellis has had in him since Day One. Wilko at 20-1 will continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield no respect horse and that is after he won the BC Juvenile last year over legit contender today Afleet Alex. He?s training out of his mind according to conditioner Craig Dollase and if you use him in the trifecta with 30-1 Mad, and you cash, you will get paid. Good luck.
Click Here And Get $125 FREE To Bet The Kentucky Derby At TCBets.com
Courtesy of TCBets.com Racebook
Get $125 FREE To Bet the Kentucky Derby
1. Noble Causeway 2. Don?t Get Mad 3. Wilko
With this year?s Kentucky Derby, one can look like a super idiot. On face value, Bellamy Road?s Wood was one of the most impressive Derby preps of all time. His 120 Beyer was tied with Ghostzapper?s BC Classic win and the he broke a track record that was set by Riva Ridge as an older horse. Purely off that race, he is the one to beat but the feeling is he peaked one race too soon. Sure, he doesn?t have to repeat that kind of figure to still win, but the way the race sets up suggests he will be pressed every step of the way on a very fast pace
You pretty much have to take a stand and either suggest the speed will stick, or that it will fold like a cheap suit. I?m going the cheap suit route. There are no less than 7 that may have designs on the lead but the problem with that is, that everybody sees there is a ton of speed in here and it is possible that somebody will make the top and nobody will challenge him. You could almost hear some riders thinking, Guidry?s going to chase, or Desormeaux will gun, and before you know it, somebody is loping along on the lead. That probably will NOT materialize.
With a race of this magnitude, sometimes the pace is left on the back burner and forgotten about in some corners. The pace is almost always hectic in the Derby because of the moment. Bellamy Road really has not had to fight for a lead in the past and he may have to stalk this time. And if he is in between horses and getting some dirt kicked in his face, he may not fire his best shot.
So let?s go with the horse that, despite not having raced in 5 weeks, has some upside to him. And that?s Noble Causeway. He is brilliantly bred, has a beautiful Beyer progression going with 5 straight improved figures, and he has trained well over the surface. And you get 12-1 on the morning line and Gary Stevens to boot. The home court advantage goes to Don?t Get Mad as he is unbeaten at Churchill. In an era when horses win fresh every single day around the country, Mad is back in a week. If he can find room, he may justify the faith his good trainer Ron Ellis has had in him since Day One. Wilko at 20-1 will continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield no respect horse and that is after he won the BC Juvenile last year over legit contender today Afleet Alex. He?s training out of his mind according to conditioner Craig Dollase and if you use him in the trifecta with 30-1 Mad, and you cash, you will get paid. Good luck.
Click Here And Get $125 FREE To Bet The Kentucky Derby At TCBets.com
