Taking Spurs to win it all! (VERY BIG)

Bombs

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And the idea that the Spurs would be -300 or -400 against Detroit or Phoenix is completely ridiculous. They will be no more than -200 against either and I would really estimate they will be closer to Pk in both, especially against the Suns with no home court advantage.
 

Scott4USC

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We shall see.

Suns will get a huge wake up call against Spurs. Against Griz Suns had a lot of open shots and tonight game 1 Suns had a lot of open shots. They will not have open shots like they have been getting against the Spurs.

Denver was not able to run all over the Spurs. That was a great series for the Spurs to prepare for Suns. Denver has more inside presence while the Suns have better outside presence. How are the Suns going to stop Duncan?

Denver likes to run just as much as Suns. In fact I think Denver is more dangerous team running the floor because ALL there big men are athletic and run the floor VERY well. If you watched the Denver/SA series, the Spurs REPEATEDLY had guys waiting back ready to defend. If you watched tonight Suns vs Dallas, Dallas NEVER had guys waiting back on defense. You can't run on the Spurs and Spurs CAN run on you if you don't defend them. The Spurs WILL defend you! Spurs can and prefer playing half court offense. Do the Suns?

Suns will have to adjust to the Spurs because they have not played a team like the Spurs in the playoffs. Major adjustment for Suns! Suns won't get nearly as many open looks as they have been getting against GRIZ and MAV's. Guess what? Suns have home court so Spurs just need to take 1/2 to get home court advantage. Suns better not take long to get adjusted to a man in your face! Spurs just need 1 game in Phoenix to win series, if they get games 1 and 2, SERIES OVER! I also hope the inexperience the Suns have don't hurt there play.

X-Factor? CALLS! Refs will side with the Spurs because they have been here before. Spurs will get away with lot on defense and should get majority of the calls.

Bowen is a stud defensive player. Whoever he guards will not put up great numbers. Parker is superfast.

Not sure what there is to dislike about this Spurs team. Not saying they are unbeatable, but they def. are better than every team in the NBA. PROVIDED they are healthy!

Just for $hits and giggles, lets take a look at the season series between the 2 teams.

Suns beat Spurs 107-101 @Phoenix, but Spurs were without Duncan, Ginoble, and Muahommad.

Spurs beat Suns 128-123 @Phoenix with a healthy Spurs squad.

Spurs beat Suns 115-94 @SA with healthy Spurs squad.

Suns were healthy in all 3 games. Not sure if they played 4 games but all I saw were 3.

Duncan, Parker, and Ginoble have played consistently well against the Suns. Those are the top 3 scorers for the Spurs. Maybe Suns don't match up well. Suns have not faced the new Spurs squad with Muhammad playing.

I have been VERY impressed with Muhammad, Glen Robinson and even berry. None are expected to carry the team and all know there roles.

How good are the Suns on defense? Suns may have the better offense (stats wise etc) but come playoff time, the Spurs will be the team with the better offense and defense because Spurs will not let Phoenix play there offensive game. Suns better play well on defense to stay with Spurs, and Spurs are a pretty damn good offensive team!

I also don't think you are giving enough props to the Spurs for beating the HOTTEST TEAM in the NBA. Denver Nuggets who i think only lost 4 games since the all star break. Spurs beat them 4-1 and prob. should have been sweep. Not to mention Duncan was not 100% early in series and one game had serious foul trouble. Spurs still prevailed because they are a solid "team."

I like to see the Suns make there shots with a guy in there face vs playing dallas and griz getting WIDE OPEN shots. If you watched tonights game, Mavs played no defense. Unless you think Spurs can't play better defense than the Mavs. :mj07:

Use USC vs OU in the Orange Bowl last year in NC game. OU running back Peterson was tearing up defenses all year but when he finally played against the best run defense in the country he was COMPLETELY shut down. Posters here at MJ's thought he would run for 200 yards because that was what he was doing all year. Not against USC with top notch defense and coach!

Same with Spurs. Suns will look REAL good against Griz and Mavs. They won't look so good against Spurs, who have the #1 defense in the NBA. The big question is will the Suns be able to execute and adjust to defenders in there face. Right now they are used to getting WIDE open shots and running teams off the floor. Not against the Spurs!
 

pt1gard

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hey bombs, good to see you ...

after watching PHX first 5 games of playoffs they are starting to really impress me, esp. the last 3 ... I might not 1/2 hedge my bet if they get past Mavs now ... they have a very tuff team to match up on with speed, stretch the O on treys, and athletes ... the spurs have always been my fave team, and I watch them closely, and UR right they are not invincible; i do think Nesto going down was big blessing, i hated the stifff .. Nazr is def. better .... TP will be pivotal, he has been so-so thus far ... now will Nash be able to stay in front of him? that will tell a lot of the tale ...

scott, i dont think this is bad bet, but Bombs raises some great points, esp. "this is a public image team b/c theyve won 2 trophies" ... tho, that is nothing to sneeze at in my book

regardless,

gl 2 all ... will be highly entertaining :

gregg
 
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Bombs

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Denver is more dangerous running the floor than the Suns? Buy a clue. Denver requires turnovers to run. The Suns can run after missed shots, turnovers, MADE shots. They are incredible. They have 5 guys that can score on the break. Denver's big guys run the floor better? What? Camby/Martin run the floor better than Marion/Stoudamire. These assertions are just laughable.

The Spurs play a lot of help defense and give up open looks, you just have to work for them. The Suns move the ball. They will get their shots, and they have plenty of outside shooters to hit them.

Nash will carve up Parker and that will be the series. Tony Parker is one of the most inconsistent, weak-minded point guards in the league. LET'S NOT FORGET, when they won the title, he didn't play the clutch minutes, CLAXTON did. They haven't won squat with Parker playing key minutes at the point. "Tony Parker is superfast" - that is bullshit mass media garbage.

Counting on the refs to give SA the calls? Highly doubtful, as the Suns are reaching NBA favorite son status secondary to their style of play. And its not like they need it, they draw legit fouls all night long.

Scott, I respect your picks, and you have made some nice selections (although the majority were on your favorite team to win) in other sports, but your NBA chalk future plays have been total bunk dating back to your "easy money" winner with the Lakers. Of course, the Spurs 'could' win, but at this price, you are flushing your money down the toilet.
 

THUNDER

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futures are all about value there is no value at sa at +160-+170 but phoenix and detroit at 4-1 thats value - amare,marion and nash cause huge mismatch problems for sa - you have a point about d bot alot of that has to do with tempo- when sa plays the suns who will dictate tempo and can the spurs run with the suns- we will see- but i do not see it happening gl
 

Scott4USC

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Starters

Carmelo Anthony, 6-8 220
Kenyon Martin, 6-9 240
Marcus Camby, 6-11, 235

Bench

Nene Hilario, 6-11, 260

Starters

Shawn Marion, 6-7, 228
Amare Stoudemire, 6-10, 245
Joe Johnson, 6-7, 230

Bench

Steven Hunter, 7-0, 240
Walter McCarty, 6-10, 230


Denver's big men have more size and are better defensive players. I much rather face Suns big men vs Denver's big men.

If there is a weakness in Suns defense, the Spurs WILL ATTACK it and play team ball. They have proven this. Spurs make the right adjustments because they have great coach. If Suns have an advantage in game 1, Spurs WILL adjust. Again, great coaching! Its amazing how well Spurs make adjustments and stick to their gameplans. They also are not afraid to attack the hole. Many teams in NBA settle for outside shot instead of taking to hole.

So Spurs have Ginoble and Parker taking it to hole all series. Amare is great shot blocker but he will have to guard Duncan or Muhammad. A 6-7 player for Suns will have to guard Muhammad or Duncan. You think Ginoble or Parker will drive to basket and dish it off to Duncan or Muhammad under basket when the SUNS "big" man comes over to help? If they don't help, Parker and Ginoble will take the shot. Both have repeatedly played WELL against Suns all year. Both take the ball to hole ALL THE TIME! Both have an outside shot as well!

That is why Spurs win the series. Suns do not match up well and Suns in the playoffs have not faced a defense NEARLY as good as the Spurs. Major shock to Suns! They better adjust SOONER rather than LATER because first 2 games are at @Phoenix. Games 3 & 4 are at SA.

Remember, Denver was the hottest team in NBA in 2nd half of year and it all changed when Karl was hired. Denver was not able to run on the Spurs.

For Suns to beat Spurs, they will need these 2 starters to step up.

Quentin Richardson
Joe Johnson

Neither have had playoff experience coming into this year AND so far in this years playoffs these 2 players have been used to WIDE OPEN looks against Mavs and Griz. Spurs don't play defense like Mavs and Griz.

Same thing with the 3 starters for Suns. Although they are proven great players in this league and Nash has the most playoff experience and luckily for Suns he is the PG. Remember, Nash doesn't do well against FAST PG's with an offensive game. Remember his great defense against Bibby for Kings? Amare will have to score over Spurs BIG MEN who I think play a little better defeense than Dampier and Nowitski. :) I will predict the Spurs force Amare to score OUTSIDE shots vs scoring dunks, layups, and free throws. And if Amare is getting to line, Spurs have PLENTY of big men to throw out there. These Spurs big men will be threats because Parker and Ginoble ATTACK the basket REPEATEDLY.

BTW, SPURS WILL GET THE BENEFIT OF MOST CALLS! Take that to the bank. When these refs think of Suns, they think explosive offense. When they think spurs, they think veteran great defensive team. When Spurs play HARD defense, they are not gonna get called on.

Now I rather Spurs play Mavs and I am not counting out the Mavs beating the Suns in this series. Although Mavs have no answer for Amare and give up way too many wide open looks. Not gonna be easy for Mavs to win series.
 

Scott4USC

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THUNDER said:
futures are all about value there is no value at sa at +160-+170 but phoenix and detroit at 4-1 thats value - amare,marion and nash cause huge mismatch problems for sa - you have a point about d bot alot of that has to do with tempo- when sa plays the suns who will dictate tempo and can the spurs run with the suns- we will see- but i do not see it happening gl


You are right and agree with you. I never said I thought this was a great value bet etc. I did say I should have lost $7,500 and saved myself that $$$ so I look at it as free money. Therefore I put it all on Spurs because I see them winning the NBA Championship. I am not betting Spurs based on value, I am betting on them because I think they ARE going to win it. Maybe why they don't have much value!

If I bet Detroit based on value and they lose, I lose $$$. If I bet Spurs with little value and they win it all, I win $$$. I am about winning $$$ and putting myself in best situation to win $$$. I see Spurs winning it all! Never said its a lock, but if they suffer no injuries, I really like my chances!

Go Spurs!
 

spits

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My thing is this scott...you have numerous wagers for Spurs at +170-+180 range.

Spurs have to beat 2 very good teams to pay you off...Phoenix/Dallas and Miami/Detroit

Defending champs are +140 or so to win the East,,,all they have to do is beat 1 very good team in Miami

All that I am saying is that you Spurs still have to win 11 games to get you +175 which will be much more difficult than Detroit winning 7 more games to win you +140

JMO...good luck.

SPITS
 

Bombs

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I still cant believe you think Denver has better big men. Yes, taller by an inch maybe, but longer and more athletic - absolutely not. Run the break better - are you serious? And you are severely underrating the Suns defense. Its above average. They give up a reasonable fg% and for as much as they score, their points against are fine.

If you can't see the matchup problems the Suns cause against the Spurs then you have myopia. You keep praising the Spurs "team ball" which is really a bunch of media garbage. They lob it in to Duncan and watch him bump into people a good majority of the time. Both the Pistons and Suns play better "team ball" if you want to go that route.

And this endless praise of Nazr Muhammad has me in stitches. You must be joking.

I would recommend sticking to USC football futures.
 

Bombs

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Scott4USC said:
You are right and agree with you. I never said I thought this was a great value bet etc. I did say I should have lost $7,500 and saved myself that $$$ so I look at it as free money. Therefore I put it all on Spurs because I see them winning the NBA Championship. I am not betting Spurs based on value, I am betting on them because I think they ARE going to win it. Maybe why they don't have much value!

If I bet Detroit based on value and they lose, I lose $$$. If I bet Spurs with little value and they win it all, I win $$$. I am about winning $$$ and putting myself in best situation to win $$$. I see Spurs winning it all! Never said its a lock, but if they suffer no injuries, I really like my chances!

Go Spurs!

This is how the books want you to think. And this is how you will go broke in the long run.

Without value, there is no reason to make a wager. It simply can't win in the long run.
 

Scott4USC

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Bombs

I am not as impressed with the Suns as you are. I am not as impressed with Suns sweeping the Grizz as I was with Spurs beating the hottest team in NBA.

I think the Spurs playing the Nuggets helped prepare Spurs for the Suns. Suns playing Mavs and Grizz doesn't help the Suns prepare for the Spurs. In fact, I would argue it HURTS the Suns more. So far in the playoffs, Suns are used to running the floor at will and taking wide open shots. I am sorry, I will be SHOCKED if they can do that against the Spurs. Suns still can make shots with defenders in their face, but I don't see them playing great against Spurs.

Suns don't have much time to adjust to Spurs because the first 2 games are at @Phoenix. Thats why I don't like home court advantage "unless" series goes 7 games. I much rather have games 3 and 4 at my place vs road.

Now you obviously are not as impressed with the Spurs as I am.

Here is the difference. I am going by data for the Spurs last 5 years. I have seen the Spurs beat the hottest team in NBA this year in playoffs despite Duncan not being effective in 2 games. I know what I am getting with the Spurs. For Suns backers, you have no past data. You have this season and this years playoffs. Beating the Grizz isn't any accomplishment. Beating the Mavs is an accomplishment but Mavs are nowhere near as good as the Spurs. Especially on defense. Completely different teams. I wouldn't say Suns are completely different than Nuggets or even Sonics to an extent. Yes, Suns are more talented and better team but not completely different. Spurs are completely different than Grizz and Mavs and it will bother the Suns. Why? Spurs play defense and they have an above offense as well!

I like to go back to my USC/OU CFB example. Look at what happened to the high powered OU offense when they faced one of if not the best defenses in CFB? I am predicting the same thing to happen with Suns when they face Spurs. It won't be as easy for Suns to score as they are used to so far in playoffs. Right now Suns are getting wide open shots and dunks/layups against sub par defenses. Of course Suns are gonna look GREAT! Certainly these defensive teams are nowhere near as good as the Spurs. Spurs have the horses at every position with DEPTH!
 

Scott4USC

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spits said:
My thing is this scott...you have numerous wagers for Spurs at +170-+180 range.

Spurs have to beat 2 very good teams to pay you off...Phoenix/Dallas and Miami/Detroit

Defending champs are +140 or so to win the East,,,all they have to do is beat 1 very good team in Miami

All that I am saying is that you Spurs still have to win 11 games to get you +175 which will be much more difficult than Detroit winning 7 more games to win you +140

JMO...good luck.

SPITS

The only team I really fear is Detroit. I am rooting for Miami and Dallas to win and keep going on to face Spurs. Suns do not worry me much. Detroit does. But if Spurs are fortunate enough to play Detroit, I can hedge etc. if I don't like what I am seeing.

My original bet I wanted to do was bet Spurs -102 to win West and that got fawked up thanks to Celtics. Detroit to win East is good, I agree, but Miami has very good chance to beat Detroit. Detroit beat Lakers last year because the Lakers role players suck and were not athletic. Heat have athletic role players and are much more talented. So I am not so sure Detroit will beat Heat. Will be great series. I prob. could get Detroit +130 to beat Heat in East.

I just don't see Sonics or Suns beating Spurs. I hope Dallas beats Suns because Suns are are more of a threat. I guess I am not as sold on Suns as the rest of you. We shall see who is right, hopefully it doesn't end up costing me. You guys have warned me and I appreciate it!


Nikos the greek said:
Hey fellas, they still haven't beaten the Sonics......

Suns still have not beaten the Mavs! :)
 

Bombs

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Comparing the NBA Playoffs to College Football is also completely worthless.
 

pt1gard

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hehe Bombs ;) but humorous nonetheless

okay, O/U number on how many views this thread with have? keep in mind if scott has to hedge it will go over the 3K mark easily ...


im counting 3,429 jelly beans in the jar ... winner gets a toaster oevn ;)

i have too much time on my hands today :)

gl, gregg
 

DIRTY Diapers

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"Tony Parker is superfast" - that is bullshit mass media garbage.

Bombs - Obviously you haven't watch too many NBA games to make a statement like this. Parker might be the fastest end to end player in the NBA. He will carve up Nash just like he blew past Kidd (who, by the way, is alot better on the defensive end)

I do agree with some of your points regarding the Suns. But DEFENSE wins championships. Timmy Duncan will eat up Stoudamire like a meat loaf sandwich. Bowen will lock up Q. Richardson - who is their leading three point shooter, and Nash (who I personally love) can NOT match up with Parker physically. Parker will continue to get in the lane which will create open shots for his teammates.

The Suns will give the Spurs a great challenge. But I see the Spurs winning in 6 or 7.
 

Bombs

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DD:

I watch more NBA games than anyone I know. In fact, I watch enough NBA games to know that making posts like "SPURS - EASY MONEY and CELTICS - EASY MONEY" is completely retarded, but I digress.

I dont care how fast Tony Parker is. He is soft and weak minded. He has never been a reliable clutch performer. I am no big fan of Steve Nash, and I do not believe he deserved the MVP, but I would take him over Tony Parker in a heartbeat.

I highly doubt Amare Stoudamire gets "eaten up" by anyone.

My money is on the Suns.
 

Cie

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Therefore I put it all on Spurs because I see them winning the NBA Championship. I am not betting Spurs based on value, I am betting on them because I think they ARE going to win it. I did say I should have lost $7,500 and saved myself that $$$ so I look at it as free money.

That kind of talk would appear to be a good way to get yourself taken off the Costa Rican black list ;)
 
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