OU may not cover the spread against TCU, but it won't have anything to do with any kind of interstate rivalry with Tulsa that doesn't exist. They could care less about a team like Tulsa who got beat 37-0 and 58-0 the only two times Stoops has played against them.
The fact that both of these games will be like warmup games and they will feel very confident winning, they will probaby play a lot of young guys (besides the young starters) to get them some experience and see who can do what.
Also, I doubt they start running up the score if they have TCU shutout, so they'll definitely be playing backups, and thats where you might have a chance.
Then again, OU does play very well at home 37-1 I believe, which goes back before Stoops even started coaching there. The 1 exception was against the in state rival OSU who scored a late touchdown in the 4th quarter that put them up 16-13.
Personally, I'll just lay off this one.