POUND this NFL Week #13 Play!

[FirstnGoal]

33-15 in my last 48 wagers/posts





Coming off a 3-1 NFL week





I just LOVE this 3 game 10 pointer that I just put together and played as a BIG Play!


3 game 10 point Teaser

Miami Dolphins +6
Indianapolis Colts -5
San Diego Chargers -1

Miami +6?first off this is a revenge game for the Fins since the Bills beat them 20-14 earlier in the season in Buffalo?secondly the Dolphins are coming off of an impressive road win at the Raiders and are facing a Bills team that hung tough at home VS the Panthers last week but lost in the final minutes?the Bills have been solid at home this season?but?they are a lousy 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS on the Road?plus?the team?s morale is at an all time low at this time with veteran DT Sam Adams walking out on the team before the Panthers game and several veterans feeling that the bottom has finally dropped out?they also have several key injuries on their Defense and will be playing in the heat of Miami this week?the Dolphins are 2-3 SU at home this season with wins coming over potential playoff teams Denver and Carolina?you won?t need the points in this one!
Miami 23 Buffalo 17


Colts -5?I?m not worried that the Colts are coming off a Big Monday Night game because in this teaser they only need to win by 6 or more and have dominated the Titans as of late!...the Colts beat the Titans 31-10 in Tennessee back on 10/02/05?are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Titans?Indy has demolished the Titans at home the last 2 seasons winning 51-24 in 04 and 33-7 in 03?the Titans are the youngest team in the league and their Defense especially in the secondary is NO MATCH for the Colts high powered offense?the Colts by at least double digits!
Indianapolis 38 Tennessee 17

Chargers -1?the Chargers are coming off of that thrilling come from behind win over the skins on the Road in a game that they dominated statistically but were behind much of the game because of 3 Drew Brees INT?s and 2 missed FG?s?this week they face a Raiders team that is DONE!...their home loss to the Dolphins put a nail in their playoff coffin and I don?t expect the team to respond this week because they are really banged up on the Defensive side of the ball and their offense is out of sync?the Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall and an outstanding 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Silver and Black?they beat the Raiders 27-14 in Oakland back on 10/16/05 and pummeled them 42-14 last year in San Diego?this is a meeting of two teams going in the opposite direction!
San Diego 34 Oakland 17

Getting the BIG GUN out for this one!!
:bigun:

 

[THE POSTMAN!]

like two out of three, there has got to be someone better to put my $$ in the hands of than Gus. :scared

 

[The Jets Fan]

Same for me. I like SD,Indy but i'm going NE instead of the Dolphins. Jets cant Run or Pass. Defense is on the field all game.
It will get ugly

 

[FirstnGoal]

like two out of three, there has got to be someone better to put my $$ in the hands of than Gus. :scared

My reasoning is the Bills have been one of the worst teams on the road this season at 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS and the teams morale is at an all time low for the season....as for Gus...I think the Dolphins will run the heck out of the ball with Brown and Williams against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Same for me. I like SD,Indy but i'm going NE instead of the Dolphins. Jets cant Run or Pass. Defense is on the field all game.
It will get ugly

I also layed some coin down on a 3 teamer with the Colts, Chargers and Patriots- even.

 

[Killrus]

DAYAMN! I was thinking the same thing FirstNGoal! Looks like easy money!

 

[FirstnGoal]

DAYAMN! I was thinking the same thing FirstNGoal! Looks like easy money!

:mj14:

 

[USCMD]

I've already played, SD, IND and NE. Can't see Jets beating NE, or Oak beating SD on the road. And Ind -5 looks like money.

I don't like teasers as a rule....but this one is too tempting to pass up.

Doc

 

[gjn23]

ummmm

according to you analysis and predicted scores, each team covers the spread in the game...yet you are betting a 10 point teaser????

teasers are worthless...they payouts dont justify the wager...you'd be better off just betting a three teamer

 

[FirstnGoal]

ummmm

according to you analysis and predicted scores, each team covers the spread in the game...yet you are betting a 10 point teaser????

teasers are worthless...they payouts dont justify the wager...you'd be better off just betting a three teamer

I've been playing teasers for longer than I can remember and have been making cash on them...if I weren't I wouldn't be playing them!...I'm hitting my teasers on a +70% clip this season...so despite the notion that some cappers have that teasers are worthless...they certainly aren't...yes you lay a little more juice...but...If you win...you win!...there is no way in hell that I or anyone else would be hitting these games straight up against the spread at a better than 70% clip...I usually put a little coin on a parlay or two each week...great payout if you hit it...but the chances of you hitting one aren't that good...all in all...I look at it like this...it's not how you win...it's if you win...and because of my teaser plays I've been beating the offshores and my local like a rented mule!

 

[gjn23]

a win is a win...correct......however

the net payout on hitting 70% of your 3 team-14 point teaser parlay is likely the same as if you hit 10% of your 3 teams parlays using the normal lines

 

[DerekNJND]

agreed teasers are shitty payouts. Alot of times, if you're right about a game, you SHOULD have enough confidence to bet it straight up. If you are going to assume the risk of something going haywire in THREE DIFFERENT GAMES, make it worth your while and do a parlay. Hell, take one game you arent sure about and SCRATCH it off the list and do a two teamer. You still get paid better than a 3 team-14or 10 point teaser.

I will do two team teasers sometimes if I dont like a game STRAIGHT UP. But if you like it straight up, cut the crap and get your moneys worth.

 

[DerekNJND]

there is no way in hell that I or anyone else would be hitting these games straight up against the spread at a better than 70% clip)

Not so fast my friend, there are folks on this forum who hit 60, 70 % in the NFL who post weekly. One has already posted for this weeks plays.

Take note, the people who do hit between 60-70% RARELY, if EVER, even do PARLAYS, let alone TEASERS. That should tell you something.

 

[FirstnGoal]

a win is a win...correct......however

the net payout on hitting 70% of your 3 team-14 point teaser parlay is likely the same as if you hit 10% of your 3 teams parlays using the normal lines

Not exactly...and here's why...if I WIN 7 out of 10 3 team teasers at $1000 to make $828 thats a $2796 dollar profit... :mj06: if I play 10 - $100 3 game parlays at 6/1 and hit 10% of them then I'd be Minus - $400. :cursin:

 

[FirstnGoal]

Not so fast my friend, there are folks on this forum who hit 60, 70 % in the NFL who post weekly. One has already posted for this weeks plays.

Take note, the people who do hit between 60-70% RARELY, if EVER, even do PARLAYS, let alone TEASERS. That should tell you something.

I'm hitting 68% but my straight plays have lowered my percentage down from over 70%...so that isn't exactly true...if it weren't for the teasers I'd be around 50%.

 

[gjn23]

first off your comparing a 1k wager to a 100 wager....why?

if you make ten 1k 10 pt teaser wagers and win 7 (assuming your $828 payout is correct) you are risking 10,000:

winnings $5796
losings $3000
net $2796

if you make ten 1k parlay wagers at odds of 6-1 and win 20% (sorry i was off earlier but i will put 10% in paranth.) you are risking 10,000:

winnings: $12000 (6000)
losings: $8000 (9000)
net $4000 (-3000)

so in essence your winning % on straight parlays needs to be around 18% (not 10%).......thus 10 point teaser parlays are not worth the payout......then again, neither is a straight parlay....it's why they are called exotic bets and offered by the house....the odds stink and are against you.....

two teamers....maybe
three teamers....rarely
buying points.....rarely and only in the nfl at 3 or 7 up or down
6 point teasers....never in a million years
10 point teasers.....you're kidding?
10 point teasers

 

[FirstnGoal]

.it's why they are called exotic bets and offered by the house....the odds stink and are against you.....

two teamers....maybe
three teamers....rarely
buying points.....rarely and only in the nfl at 3 or 7 up or down
6 point teasers....never in a million years
10 point teasers.....you're kidding?
10 point teasers

I'll make this fast cause I have to run...but...think about it...the odds or should I say chances are In your favor in teasers...thus you have to pay the extra juice because your improving your chances of beating the spread even if you have to play more than one game.

 

[gjn23]

forget it...you're missing the point....obviously the chances are in your favor on a teaser but the payouts get proportionately worse


in the long run teasers are a horrible bet for the player and great for the house

 

[The Jets Fan]

Your Probably right CAT
I hit a 6 team 6 pt teaser last week 100/600
Straight up it went 6-0-1 I would have won 2100 but i have lost alot of those by 1 point or 1 game and i got a last second cover and the tie in the last seconds or overtime[Carolina and San diego]
I dont do this for a living and i'm never going to brake the Bank,I just like the action and Winning is always SWEET.

 

[DerekNJND]

I'm hitting 68% but my straight plays have lowered my percentage down from over 70%...so that isn't exactly true...if it weren't for the teasers I'd be around 50%.

When I said there were people hitting straight up wagers at 70% or so, I NEVER SAID I MEANT YOU!

Dont flatter yourself like that :mj07:

If I thought you were hitting 70% on your bets, I wouldnt be trying to give you advice.

You said it was impossible for you or ANYONE ELSE to hit between 60% and 70% on straight wagers alone. I said that is not true.