POUND this NFL Week #13 Play!

[FirstnGoal]

When I said there were people hitting straight up wagers at 70% or so, I NEVER SAID I MEANT YOU!

Dont flatter yourself like that :mj07:

If I thought you were hitting 70% on your bets, I wouldnt be trying to give you advice.

You said it was impossible for you or ANYONE ELSE to hit between 60% and 70% on straight wagers alone. I said that is not true.

First off...I NEVER THOUGHT YOU MEANT ME OR CARED for that matter...and I said it was nearly impossible for anyone to consistently hit 70% or more (not 60-70%) of their straight plays if they play week in and week out.

 

[FirstnGoal]

forget it...you're missing the point....obviously the chances are in your favor on a teaser but the payouts get proportionately worse


in the long run teasers are a horrible bet for the player and great for the house

Your right in that sense...unless the player knows what he's doing!

 

[FirstnGoal]

After this debate about Teasers etc...I decided to break down my wagers and posts from the start of the season and was amazed at what I found.


Total NFL Wagers/Posts - 43

NFL Won/Loss Record - 29-14 67.4%

Breakdown:

NFL Straight (Sides) Plays - 11-9 55.0%

NFL Total Plays - 1-0 100%

NFL Teaser Plays - 17-5 77.2%



College Football Wagers/Posts - 13

Won/Loss Record - 7-6 53.8%

Breakdown:

College Straight Plays - 4-6 40%

College Teaser Plays - 3-0 100%



Total NFL and College Straight Plays:
16-15 51.6%

Total NFL and College Teaser Plays:
20-5 80.0%


I'm not speaking for everyone... but you can see where I've made my Money this season!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I'm with you FnG!!
These teasers are serious money makers. I've only started playing them this season (2team 7 pointers) since about week 4 and I'm currently hitting 'em at around 80%. 10-1 the last two weeks alone. I'm happy to cop a slightly smaller payout than a standard line bet coz I know they are a huge 'cheat bet' giving the bettor a greater advantage.

I just wish all of my books allowed them!....and I'm honestly surprised that any book allows them at all!!

Like you said earlier..."it's not how you win...it's if you win".

If a mug like me can clean up on these things.....anyone can!!

Best of luck this week mate. :toast:

 

[FirstnGoal]

I'm with you FnG!!
These teasers are serious money makers. I've only started playing them this season (2team 7 pointers) since about week 4 and I'm currently hitting 'em at around 80%. 10-1 the last two weeks alone. I'm happy to cop a slightly smaller payout than a standard line bet coz I know they are a huge 'cheat bet' giving the bettor a greater advantage.

I just wish all of my books allowed them!....and I'm honestly surprised that any book allows them at all!!

Like you said earlier..."it's not how you win...it's if you win".

If a mug like me can clean up on these things.....anyone can!!

Best of luck this week mate. :toast:

I couldn't agree with you more!

Good Luck this week!

:toast:

 

[DerekNJND]

First off...I NEVER THOUGHT YOU MEANT ME OR CARED for that matter...and I said it was nearly impossible for anyone to consistently hit 70% or more (not 60-70%) of their straight plays if they play week in and week out.

People DO hit 70% or 69% or 71% (WHATEVER). That was my point. Just because I usually dont, or you usually dont hit at that rate, dont say its IMPOSSIBE. Its a fact. Some of the guys who post here do and they play every week. It is NOT impossible. Good luck anyhow man.

 

[FirstnGoal]

People DO hit 70% or 69% or 71% (WHATEVER). That was my point. Just because I usually dont, or you usually dont hit at that rate, dont say its IMPOSSIBE. Its a fact. Some of the guys who post here do and they play every week. It is NOT impossible. Good luck anyhow man.

I shouldn't have used the word impossible because nothing is impossible...yes you will find some...but... you won't find too many that are hitting striaght plays Over 70% on a consistent basis....all in all...my Teasers are hitting at an 80% clip which I personally couldn't match by playing the games straight up.

Good Luck to you as well! :mj14:

 

[gjn23]

of your 20 teaser wins....go back and see how many would have still be wins had you bet them using the original spread

 

[FirstnGoal]

of your 20 teaser wins....go back and see how many would have still be wins had you bet them using the original spread

This was easy because I keep a log of all my wagers...and the results would have been:


33 Wins - 32 losses - 3 push's

50.7 %


I'd be wearing the Bag :s2:

:yup


Good Luck this week!

 

[gjn23]

you're not anwswering the question

all 33 of those wins may have been in the 11 3 team paylays giving you 11 wins....and the 32 losses all on the other parlays

track the individ games in your 20 teaser wins and see how many still come out as winners using the regular spread

would be interesting to hear

fwiw....you only need 4-5 of them to remain winners to break even with your $ payout on your teaser

 

[FirstnGoal]

you're not anwswering the question

all 33 of those wins may have been in the 11 3 team paylays giving you 11 wins....and the 32 losses all on the other parlays

track the individ games in your 20 teaser wins and see how many still come out as winners using the regular spread

would be interesting to hear

fwiw....you only need 4-5 of them to remain winners to break even with your $ payout on your teaser

Gin...I have a better chance of being struck by lightning tonight or winning a Big Lottery than I have a chance that those 33 wins would be in the correct eleven 3 team parlays!

Also..I did track the individual games in my 20 teaser wins and my results were 33-32-3 just like I posted.

 

[gjn23]

your missing the point

i dont care what your overall record was....how many of those 20 teaser wins would have also been regular parlay wins without adding the 10 points......

forget...i believe you dont understand what you are doing...keep "winning" the teasers and forget about understanding the reasoning on why they are worthless bets.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

FnG

Give it up mate. You can only lead a horse to water....

Keep on not "understanding" what you are doing and keep cashing on those "worthless" teasers.

LMAO :mj14:

 

[gjn23]

keep hitting those less 3 team teasers at less than even money

as opposed

to hitting a smaller % but at 6-1 odds

i'm gonna open a sportsbook for you to bet at

 

[DerekNJND]

Gin...I have a better chance of being struck by lightning tonight or winning a Big Lottery than I have a chance that those 33 wins would be in the correct eleven 3 team parlays!

Also..I did track the individual games in my 20 teaser wins and my results were 33-32-3 just like I posted.

Gins just tryin to help. If you know what your WIN % would be without adding the teaser points in, you can assess whether you would have won the games SU as well. Once you know that, you can maybe mix a few parlays in with your teasers. Maybe you're still making money either way, but like you said, winning is hard to come by sometimes. If you're capping games the right way, possibly w/o the teaser help, you need to be making EVERY POSSIBLE DIME you can off of your current hot streak/accuracy. Believe me, it will run dry at some point, and the more winnings you have, the less the losses will cut into the overall picture. I believe thats all hes trying to say

 

[AnkAnk]

forget it...you're missing the point....obviously the chances are in your favor on a teaser but the payouts get proportionately worse


in the long run teasers are a horrible bet for the player and great for the house

I'll admit that I haven't read the entire thread but gjn is right....the payouts get proportionately worse.


Good luck to everyone!

 

[FirstnGoal]

keep hitting those less 3 team teasers at less than even money

as opposed

to hitting a smaller % but at 6-1 odds

i'm gonna open a sportsbook for you to bet at

Gjn...I play a parlay or two each week...I get your point!...but what I'm saying is the parlays aren't a "sure thing" and I expect to lose the small amount of cash that I put on them and am more than pleased if I cash in on a couple...but remember...they are like the famous parlay office pool cards that your local distributes and makes money on every year.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Gins just tryin to help. If you know what your WIN % would be without adding the teaser points in, you can assess whether you would have won the games SU as well. Once you know that, you can maybe mix a few parlays in with your teasers. Maybe you're still making money either way, but like you said, winning is hard to come by sometimes. If you're capping games the right way, possibly w/o the teaser help, you need to be making EVERY POSSIBLE DIME you can off of your current hot streak/accuracy. Believe me, it will run dry at some point, and the more winnings you have, the less the losses will cut into the overall picture. I believe thats all hes trying to say

Derek...I know what Gjn's saying and I do play parlays and some stright plays each week...but my point was in this topic was that "Teasers Can Be Pleasers" and aren't the sucker bet that some people think they are...case in point...my brother in law has donated to our Local by "betting football"(straight games and parlays) for as long as I can remember and in fact I've joked with him over the years that He owns part of (or has paid for) the BIG building that the local owns...however...this year I finally convinced him to be open to playing Teasers and low and behold - He's ahead of the game for the first time that we both can remember by playing only One or sometimes two teasers each week UNLESS there is a line that he likes that he feels he doesn't need to tease the game to win...I myself don't play teasers every week...I just play them when I feel it gives me a better chance of winning...however...In the 12 weeks of football up to now there were only two weeks that I didn't play a tease...I've said it before and I'll say it again..."Its not how you win...it's if you win" and I'll take the cash anyway I can get it.

P.S. - I'm having the BEST season I've ever had and am way...way ahead of the game!

P.S.S. - Good Luck this weekend!

 

[Killrus]

hoping for a miracle dolphin comeback!
I need 2 more scores!

 

[FirstnGoal]

33-15 in my last 48 wagers/posts





Coming off a 3-1 NFL week





I just LOVE this 3 game 10 pointer that I just put together and played as a BIG Play!


3 game 10 point Teaser

Miami Dolphins +6
Indianapolis Colts -5
San Diego Chargers -1

Miami +6?first off this is a revenge game for the Fins since the Bills beat them 20-14 earlier in the season in Buffalo?secondly the Dolphins are coming off of an impressive road win at the Raiders and are facing a Bills team that hung tough at home VS the Panthers last week but lost in the final minutes?the Bills have been solid at home this season?but?they are a lousy 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS on the Road?plus?the team?s morale is at an all time low at this time with veteran DT Sam Adams walking out on the team before the Panthers game and several veterans feeling that the bottom has finally dropped out?they also have several key injuries on their Defense and will be playing in the heat of Miami this week?the Dolphins are 2-3 SU at home this season with wins coming over potential playoff teams Denver and Carolina?you won?t need the points in this one!
Miami 23 Buffalo 17


Colts -5?I?m not worried that the Colts are coming off a Big Monday Night game because in this teaser they only need to win by 6 or more and have dominated the Titans as of late!...the Colts beat the Titans 31-10 in Tennessee back on 10/02/05?are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Titans?Indy has demolished the Titans at home the last 2 seasons winning 51-24 in 04 and 33-7 in 03?the Titans are the youngest team in the league and their Defense especially in the secondary is NO MATCH for the Colts high powered offense?the Colts by at least double digits!
Indianapolis 38 Tennessee 17

Chargers -1?the Chargers are coming off of that thrilling come from behind win over the skins on the Road in a game that they dominated statistically but were behind much of the game because of 3 Drew Brees INT?s and 2 missed FG?s?this week they face a Raiders team that is DONE!...their home loss to the Dolphins put a nail in their playoff coffin and I don?t expect the team to respond this week because they are really banged up on the Defensive side of the ball and their offense is out of sync?the Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall and an outstanding 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Silver and Black?they beat the Raiders 27-14 in Oakland back on 10/16/05 and pummeled them 42-14 last year in San Diego?this is a meeting of two teams going in the opposite direction!
San Diego 34 Oakland 17

Getting the BIG GUN out for this one!!
:bigun:

Another winning teaser!... :clap: ...1000 to win 831...now Gjn if I did it your way and played the games straight out and risked 1000 with $333 on all 3 games...I would have done OK winning 2 out of 3 games for a $306 profit...but...My $831 profit looks much :grins: better to me!

All in All! All My Teasers are now 21-5 on the season and 18-5 in the NFL!

And before I forget...I did play a game straight out - the G-Men -3 over the 'Boys.