Three games I absolutely LOVE for Sunday...

[Glenn Quagmire]

NFL YTD (6-1)

There are 3 games I love this weekend which means I'll be doubling up on each one of these wagers. Luckily for me, the 2 teams I love betting against the most are playing on the road and only catching 3 points this weekend. I also think the linesmakers have overreacted in a HUGE way on the first two picks. Anyway, on to the picks...

Carolina (-3) I damn near fell out of my chair when I saw this line. I thought Carolina would be a 5.5 or 6 point fave. I guess it's an overreaction to Atlanta beating up on a pathetic Lions team on Thanksgiving, coupled with the fact that Carolina hasn't looked great their last 2 games. Whatever the case, I couldn't bet on it fast enough. Let's see here... Michael Vick on the road, against a great defense, against a better team overall, AND I only have to lay 3 points? Sign me up! And yes, I'm well aware that Kordell is 5-0 in his career against the Panthers. I think that will actually be a great motivator for Carolina. I'll be surprised if they win by less than 7.

Pittsburgh (-3) The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Quick, everyone bet against Pittsburgh after that MNF debacle! Nope. Not so fast. I think this is one of those "time to regroup and take out our frustrations on the next opponent" type of games for Pitt. I also think homefield is going to be huge in this one. And I know I may be the last person on earth to give the Bungles no respect, but I'm still not impressed. One win over a team with a winning record and this will be their TWELFTH game?! Congrats! Oh, and let's not forget that Pitt handed them their asses in their first matchup AT Cincy. Three seems like a gift to me here.

Washington (-3) I would NOT want to play the 'Skins this weekend. Some people may look at the fact that they have lost 3 in a row and point to it as a sign to bet against them. Not me. I look at it the other way. After last week's egg-laying against the Chargers they are going to play with a chip on their shoulders. And unlike the Rams, I think they are much better than their record. It's actually amazing to me that these two teams have the same record. Washington is a MUCH better team than the Rams. I look for their defense to have a big game against the newbie QB of the Rams and their O shouldn't have a problem putting up 24+ points against that weak Rams D.

GLTA with your picks. :scared

 

[baby johnson]

i've already played wash and pitt, may joi you on carolina

gl this week

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thanks baby johnson. I'm not really one to hype up picks, but I really do like these three a lot. I like them more than any of the other games because they all look like good situational plays to me. Pitt and Carolina are only laying a FG at home in important division games, and Wash is laying only a FG to an inferior Rams team in a must-win situation. Good luck to you as well this weekend!

 

[soul train]

I like the Falcons..the other 2 look good

 

[smurphy]

Love Pit and Was. Good luck!

 

[THE KOD]

I would be very carefull betting against the Falcons this week.

Vick always plays well against them. Panthers have struggled against teams that they shouldnt have if they are to win the Division.

Falcons in almost a must win situation to keep this close.

I would have to say no chance the Panthers win this by 7 if they win at all.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thanks everyone. Based on the board it seems like a lot of people like Wash and Pitt this week but aren't sold on Carolina. Given that it's such a big game for Atlanta, I can understand that. I honestly appreciate the comments. That's what this forum is about. If you think I'm full of crap, go ahead and tell me. Hell, I'm used to it, my girlfriend does it all the time!

And Scott, you make great points. I didn't mean to imply that Carolina would roll by 30 or anything. I just think they will come away with about a 10 point win, and here's why... as impressive as the Falcon's running game is, I don't see them going into Carolina and running at will. I have to think the Panthers will gameplan to shut down their running game. While they certainly won't shut it down, I think they can do a good job of containing it. If they can force Vick to beat them with his arm, I don't think Atlanta can win. You make a great point that this is practically a must-win game for Atlanta. However, at 8-3 Carolina probably looks at this game, and all the rest of them, as must wins if they want to have homefield in the playoffs. You think they want to go back to Chicago in January? I know Vick and the Falcons have had Carolina's number in year's past, I just think Carolina is the more talented team here and will get it done. I also think that Atlanta pretty much owning them will be a great motivating factor for the Panthers. Kind of like Indy against the Patriots earlier this year. I realize that's comparing apples and oranges, but I think the mindset is the same. Just a newbie's 2 cents...

 

[THE KOD]

Yeh I may be swayed because I lost a pretty big wager when the Panthers lost at home to New Orleans...

True colors there. No way they should have lost that game.

Still havnt gotten over how they played.

 

[thom24ad]

Glen,
I'm right with you on those three games...What do you think of NY Giants -3 at home...after last weeks display I think they will be ready to go for this division game...Plus I am not sold on Bledsoe...The Giants D-line need to get pressure on Bledsoe which I think they can...Also pondering under 42...any comments on this game

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thom24ad,

I came very close to putting some money on the Giants this weekend. I live in Seattle so I saw last week's game in person. I have to say their defense has really turned it on lately. Seattle can score a lot of points and NY did a good job of holding them in check. I know I may catch some heat for saying this, but I think you could make the argument that the Giants are the best team in the NFC. I'm not saying they ARE, but they are definitely one of the 3 or 4 best.

Having said that, I think they will regroup nicely this weekend against Dallas. They seem to play very well at home and it's a huge game for playoff/homefield purposes. They are also only laying a FG, which is practically a pick 'em. The reason I didn't bet on it? Dallas is too much of a wildcard for me. They can look very mediocre, or they can come out and look like world-beaters. Also, I think it will be a low-scoring, defensive game. That makes the -3 not quite as attractive as if it were a high scoring game. I definitely lean to NYG, but I probably won't bet them. I do like the under though. I would probably bet that one before betting on NY -3. Just my opinion. Good luck with whatever you do.

 

[thom24ad]

Thanks Glenn,
gonna have to think this one over...Love the city of Seattle...I've been there a few times dated a girl from college that lived in Tacoma

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

No problem at all. One thing worth considering, and I forgot to mention before, is that Dallas' D shut down Eli pretty well in their first meeting. They made him look like a HS QB. I had the Giants plus the points and would have lost if it weren't for a late TD by the Giants at the end. Not trying to talk you out of playing it, just something that had slipped my mind. It's probably a big part of the reason why NY is only favored by 3 as well. I suppose it's just a matter of whether or not the Giants can make the right adjustments from the first game.

Yeah, I like Seattle a lot. It's very scenic and there is a lot to do here, especially if you like the outdoors. Tacoma on the other hand... well... hehe... I will say that they've cleaned it up a little bit over the last couple of years. And there are some decent areas of Tacoma, like with any city. But there is a night and day difference between Tacoma and Seattle, even though they are only about 40 minutes apart.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Scott,

I can't disagree with you on that Saints game. The Panthers played like crap. They've also had a couple of other games that they haven't looked so hot in. I think the same can be said for Atlanta too though. The GB loss at home comes to mind. Whatever the case, I think both teams will be amped for Sunday's game. It's a critical one for both teams.

 

[IX_Bender]

 

[DerekNJND]

Pittsburgh (-3) The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Quick, everyone bet against Pittsburgh after that MNF debacle! Nope. Not so fast. I think this is one of those "time to regroup and take out our frustrations on the next opponent" type of games for Pitt.

Thats EXACTLY what Vegas wants you to think. Some teams arent as good as they were last year, and the sooner ya realize it, the better. These two teams are about equal this year, and its a divisional rivalry. Pitt is only a favorite because of homefield. Factor in Pitts win at Cincy and you have a revenge game for the Bengals. Plus, I wouldnt lay a dime on the Steelers after the way Rothelsberger threw the ball Monday night. That was the first game back, but sometimes the rust doesnt shed too quickly. Bengals ML +150

GL to ya all the same

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Holy hell Bender, where did you get that?! I needz me one of them! Aaaaaallriiiiiiight! Oh!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Derek,

I don't know, I guess I look at it the other way. I think Vegas expects everyone to bet against the Steelers this week because they looked so bad on MNF. That, to me, explains why Pitt is only -3. They were afraid everyone would jump all over the Bengals and they wanted to make sure they got Pitt money. I could be wrong though.

As for the Steelers, I don't disagree with you. They aren't as good as last year. I never said they were. And I certainly don't think they're a great team. But in this spot, I definitely like them. And this bet is as much AGAINST Cincy as it is ON Pittsburgh for me. I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why I should be impressed with the Bengals this year. Seriously, who have they beaten? They beat the Bears early in the season, long before they hit their stride. That's the only impressive win they have, in my opinion. They have also struggled at home against teams like the Texans and Packers. I obviously can't say they're a bad team, but I think they're pretty far from being considered one of the elite teams as well.

As for Ben, I'm not banking on Roethlisberger to have a big game. I think he's still hobbled. I think he'll be limited. I do think the Steelers will be able to run at will though. Indy's D made them look pretty bad. I don't think Cincy's D can do the same thing, especially on the road. You make a good point about this being a revenge game for Cincy. They will definitely be fired up. But it's also a huge game for Pitt too because they don't want to fall 2 games out in the division.

A couple of weeks ago I posted Indy over Cincy and said it was a great chance for Cincy to prove me wrong. They gave Indy a good game, but they weren't able to cover. If they can win in Pittsburgh on Sunday I will definitely gain a lot of respect for them.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Ok, I'm adding a couple more. I've been waffling on the Bears and Giants games all week because I liked the sides and totals, but was worried about the weather. Here are the picks...

Chicago (-7) It sounds like the weather will be bad Saturday night, but not too bad Sunday. As long as there isn't a blizzard going on during the game I think daaaaaa Bears will cover this. Due to injuries GB has no running game whatsoever. Favre makes a lot of mistake to begin with, can you imagine how bad it's going to be tomorrow when Chicago's D can just pin their ears back and come after him all game? I think Chicago will score 21-24 in this game (not just O, defense and special teams too), and I don't think GB will get over 10. Or, for you old school Bears fans.... Ditka 119... Packers 0. And Ditka will only have 3 heart attacks during the game.

Cowboys/Gigantes (Under 41.5) I thought about taking the Giants -3 but it's now up to -3.5. I also could have had the total at 42, but waited too long and it has dropped. My bad. I think this game will be VERY close and low-scoring. These two teams combined for just 29 points in their first meeting, and a good chunk of that was at the very end of the game. Throw in the weather factor (calling for snow mixed with rain tomorrow) and I have to think this game will be another defensive struggle. The Cowboys made Baby Peyton look awful in their first game. I think he will play a little better this time, and the Giants as a team play better at home, but I don't think they will roll up a ton of points. The Cowboys D isn't going to allow that in a game of this magnitude. I'm just praying Bledsoe doesn't implode and throw 3 picks tomorrow.

GLTA with your picks.

 

[Hokie Fan]

Gigidy Gigidy too you
Freakin Sweet picks....

 

[MadJack]

Holy hell Bender, where did you get that?! I needz me one of them! Aaaaaallriiiiiiight! Oh!