89% since 12/5...This Weekend Play's

[thom24ad]

5-1 last weekend and 17-2 since 12/5! Let's hope I can keep it going.

365 San Diego @
366 Kansas City -1

San Diego +1 Strongest Play

-This is a huge division game! San Diego is 3-0 as an underdog this season, 3-0 versus division opponents, and 5-1 in road lined games. Then you have KC 6-1 as a favorite and 5-1 in home lined games. KC has lost two straight road games but I really think they lose a third one in a row. It's their defense it sucks and there is no way they will be able to contain SD's offense when in the last three games KC has allowed 400+ yards of offense. SD defense has been great against the run this season allowing just 75 rushing ypg. Will they do this to LJ and the Chiefs? Most likely not, but the Chargers will be able to contain KC just enough to get the win. SD will find a way to make the playoffs while KC all they have been doing to finding ways to lose games. I have a feeling the Chargers will be favored by game time. Never mind on that last comment, I just checked sports book and they have SD at -1 already.

375 NY Giants @
376 Washington -3

NY Giants +3

-Now I know a lot of you aren't going to be a fan of this pick but I like the Giants. Washington coming off a big win, dominating the other team, and at home playing a poor road team. Washington defense is solid at home allowing just under two TDs a game. NY is 2-3 on the road and their two wins were San Fran and a beat up Eagles team. So why do I like NY? I like NY because of the fact that NY can lock up the division with this win. We are going to see what kind of team NY is with this game. I just have a gut feeling about NY winning this game.

My Christmas Day Play!

389 Chicago @ -7
390 Green Bay 31

Chicago -7 Over 31

- Love Chicago in this play. Yeah, I know rivalry game, but I don't care Green Bay is just decimated with injuries and there is just no heart left in this team. I was calling for Grossman before the start of SNF and was answered with Rex getting the nod at the half. If you watch the game you would have noticed the spark Grossman gave that offense. He has been with the Bears for 3 years and learning the NFL offense. He has a strong arm and is the reason why he was drafted. This Green Bay game is a perfect game for him to make his first start this season. I believe this offense will put up points against the Pack and is the reason why I favor the Over. Plain and simple Chicago should roll in this game as they fight for a home-field playoff game. I could talk about the Bear's defense but honestly it speaks for it's self. This team will be scary in the playoffs at home.

361 Buffalo @
362 Cincinnati -14

Cincy -14

- Once again tailing Worm44 on this play. Worm said he wanted to get this game in at -13.5 before the line goes up, but I personally believe Worm is responsible for a 2 point swing in every game he picks.
:mj07:
Thanks for the picks Worm, and keep up the good work, GL!

Had a good day last Sunday at 3-0 and I hope I can keep the juices flowing for this weeks NFL plays.
Good Luck to all who play!
:mj14:

 

[Magic32]

Another thing in your favor with that San Diego selection is that its going to be about 50 degrees and sunny in Kansas City on Sunday. A far cry from what it could be here in the midwest at the end of December.

You are on a mighty impressive roll. Well Done Sir.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I love the SD pick Thom. I think they get it done this weekend. I've actually been looking pretty hard at Washington though. Two quick questions for ya... 1) How much do you think the revenge factor will come into play in the Skins game? They got blasted 36-0 in the first game... and 2) Isn't Washington still fighting for a playoff spot as well? It seems like this game is as critical to them as it is NY. I haven't looked at the NFC seeding in a bit so I may be missing something.

When I saw you were on the Giants it slowed me down quite a bit. Still haven't bet on Washington, but am leaning that way. Would appreciate your thoughts. Congrats again on the tear you're on. Why don't you win a game every once in a while huh?! :mj07:

 

[thom24ad]

I love the SD pick Thom. I think they get it done this weekend. I've actually been looking pretty hard at Washington though. Two quick questions for ya... 1) How much do you think the revenge factor will come into play in the Skins game? They got blasted 36-0 in the first game... and 2) Isn't Washington still fighting for a playoff spot as well? It seems like this game is as critical to them as it is NY. I haven't looked at the NFC seeding in a bit so I may be missing something.

When I saw you were on the Giants it slowed me down quite a bit. Still haven't bet on Washington, but am leaning that way. Would appreciate your thoughts. Congrats again on the tear you're on. Why don't you win a game every once in a while huh?! :mj07:

Glenn, I got a whole lot of nothing to back up my NY play. I'm just going with my gut feeling on this one. For some reason I just don't think Wash is that great of a team, but come Saturday I could be eating my words. As of right now and most likely I am going to lose UTEP tonight. Hopefully it will play out like last weekend where I lose the first game then win the rest, but we know thats wishfull thinking. I think somehow or someway the Chargers will make the playoffs.

 

[thom24ad]

Was able to make up for UTEP with Navy last night. I looking at NE/NY and trying to find info if they are going to play their starters or not. Let me know if anyone has any info on this. Some good cappers here like Tampa and I am starting to lean that way myself. I am going to do a little research for before I add and I'll post what I come up with if I play the game.
Good Luck Guys, also playing Houston tonight!

 

[THE KOD]

thom

are you sure Grossman is going to start in the Chicago game ?

Lovie isnt going to pull back and put Orton back in there is he ?

If Orton starts I am not playing this game.

I cant find anything about who QB for Bears will be.

thanks

 

[Davoso]

Scott-

No doubt it is Grossman. Orton will not see the field again this year barring "another" Grossman injury.

 

[THE KOD]

Dav

I see nothing in news that says so , thats what worries me.

 

[Dice34]

Here ya go dog

http://www.chicagobears.com/news/newsDetail.jsp?id=13219

 

[thom24ad]

thom

are you sure Grossman is going to start in the Chicago game ?

Lovie isnt going to pull back and put Orton back in there is he ?

If Orton starts I am not playing this game.

I cant find anything about who QB for Bears will be.

thanks

Yeah, Grossman got the nod on monday. Lovie announced it in his press conference. He would be crazy to put Orton in, the kid looked like a deer a in Chad Johnson's headlights. I am banking on Grossman throwing a couple TDs on Sunday.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Hey Thom,

So you're going with your gut on the Giants game? Sounds like you're handicapping games like ol' Glenn Quagmire! :mj07: Kidding. I also try to go with what my gut tells me though. There isn't much science to it but I've found that it pays off more than it doesn't. GL with your picks. I really like the SD game. Last I checked it was up to -2!

 

[thom24ad]

Hey Thom,

So you're going with your gut on the Giants game? Sounds like you're handicapping games like ol' Glenn Quagmire! :mj07: Kidding. I also try to go with what my gut tells me though. There isn't much science to it but I've found that it pays off more than it doesn't. GL with your picks. I really like the SD game. Last I checked it was up to -2!

I know I called SD in early to my local and got it a +1. I called again last night to put more money on it and he had it at -2.5. I just stayed with my +1. I could easy get burned this week with the Giants. Yeah got a gut feeling on this one and I got a big gut!
:mj07:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Yeah, imagine that, SD beats the Colts last week and now the public is all over them. What a shock! You could put the Chargers up against the '85 Bears on Saturday and the public would take the Chargers right now.

 

[thom24ad]

I think Wash will be a big public play as well...so I'll most likely will lose SD and win NY

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I haven't checked the stats but I think the public is playing Wash pretty hard. Yet the line hasn't budged from -3. As someone who bet on Wash that scares me.

 

[BuffaloBill]

I never pay attention to all of this talk about "the public" plays.

I just concentrate on trying to pick winners.

There have been many tests over the years where people have tracked how one would do going against the public.

The tets have shown that you may be ahead, but only by a little bit.

Good Luck.

 

[Theboundbook]

Careful on SD.... KC doesnt lose at home in Dec.......

 

[thom24ad]

Careful on SD.... KC doesnt lose at home in Dec.......

Yeah they haven't lost since like 96...this could be the week my luck goes the other way but I'm not going to second guess myself..GL!

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck Thom

 

[thom24ad]

I haven't checked the stats but I think the public is playing Wash pretty hard. Yet the line hasn't budged from -3. As someone who bet on Wash that scares me.

Not has public as we thought, got this from sportsbook

NY 47%
Wash 53%

SD 61%
KC 39%

Buff 28%
Cincy 72%
- we all have the worm to blame for that 72%, LOL

ATL 9%
TB 91%
-I was thinking TB but 91% has scared me off of the Buccs completely, and these %s will change closer to the start of the games