Killian, that's what this forum is all about. I'm glad I was able to help. Let's nail the big game!
LL's Playoff Thread
- Thread starter Livin' Large
- Start date
PLAYOFFS: (6-0)
Opening line:
Steelers -4
I expect this line to reach 6 before kickoff. I will post my thoughts on the game in this thread throughout the next two weeks. Here are three notes I came across this morning:
1. The dog has covered 4 straight in the Super Bowl.
2. Seattle has 5 players with Super Bowl experience, Pittsburgh has one.
3. Pittsburgh uses a 3-4 defense. Seattle has faced only one 3-4 defense this season (Dallas). Seattle struggled offensively against Dallas, but won the game 13-10 when Bledsoe threw a late pick which setup the game-winning FG.
More to come later!
LL
Opening line:
Steelers -4
I expect this line to reach 6 before kickoff. I will post my thoughts on the game in this thread throughout the next two weeks. Here are three notes I came across this morning:
1. The dog has covered 4 straight in the Super Bowl.
2. Seattle has 5 players with Super Bowl experience, Pittsburgh has one.
3. Pittsburgh uses a 3-4 defense. Seattle has faced only one 3-4 defense this season (Dallas). Seattle struggled offensively against Dallas, but won the game 13-10 when Bledsoe threw a late pick which setup the game-winning FG.
More to come later!
LL
The favorite has gone 25-14 SU and 18-18-3 ATS. Only eight times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the number, including last year's Super Bowl XXXIX when New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21. The Eagles closed as a 7 point dog.
Last edited:
The NFC has won eight of the 11 Super Bowls played indoors. A lot of these games weren't close either, with the victor winning by an average of 14.9 points per game. The favorite is 6-3-2 ATS in the 11 games.
There have been 12 Super Bowls that have seen the point-spread listed at four points or less. Out of the dozen finales, only three have been decided by single digits. Underdogs own a 7-4-1 ATS mark when listed as a dog of four or less.
The last 5 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 5 during the regular season in red zone defense.
2004 Patriots (3rd)
2003 Patriots (4th)
2002 Bucs (1st)
2001 Patriots (3rd)
2000 Ravens (2nd)
2005-2006
Seattle (2nd)
Pittsburgh (10th)
Is this merely a coincidence? I think not!
2004 Patriots (3rd)
2003 Patriots (4th)
2002 Bucs (1st)
2001 Patriots (3rd)
2000 Ravens (2nd)
2005-2006
Seattle (2nd)
Pittsburgh (10th)
Is this merely a coincidence? I think not!
The higher-ranked defensive team has won four of the past five Super Bowls, and eight of the past 11. The 2005 rankings? Pittsburgh was fourth overall (No. 3 vs. the run and No. 16 against the pass) and Seattle was No. 16 (fifth vs. run; 25th vs. pass).
Seattle coaches have 19 Super Bowl rings and 240 games of playoff experience as a staff.
Seattle coaches have 19 Super Bowl rings and 240 games of playoff experience as a staff.
Hello nutz...
I think you might be giving Seattle's defense a little too much credit when considering that Seattle resides in the only division in the NFL to sport three teams with losing seasonal records, after Seattle the next best team was St Louis and they finished with a record of 6-10.
Seattle was able to pad their 15-3 record with 6 wins from their divisional rivals who tallied a win/loss record of 15-33 straight up for the year and was able to add on two more wins from Houston and Tenny who combined for a 6-26 record this year, thus, 8 of Seattle's 15 wins came against teams that posted a combined record of 21-59 straight up.
take care and be well my friend
Jim
I think you might be giving Seattle's defense a little too much credit when considering that Seattle resides in the only division in the NFL to sport three teams with losing seasonal records, after Seattle the next best team was St Louis and they finished with a record of 6-10.
Seattle was able to pad their 15-3 record with 6 wins from their divisional rivals who tallied a win/loss record of 15-33 straight up for the year and was able to add on two more wins from Houston and Tenny who combined for a 6-26 record this year, thus, 8 of Seattle's 15 wins came against teams that posted a combined record of 21-59 straight up.
take care and be well my friend
Jim
7-0 haven't missed a game yet that I put money on! I've loved pit since Ben got there and have bet on him ever since. Nothing new here
Steelers -3 (they win by a TD) so don't be affraid
Steelers -3 (they win by a TD) so don't be affraid
Jim,
I'm assuming you're talking about my latest post which points out Seattle's #2 ranking in regular season red zone defense. This assumption is based on the fact that I haven't offered any of my personal opinions on this game yet. I will say this, consider this my first personal comment on the Super Bowl, strength of schedule means absolutely nothing in this game! Both the Seahawks and the Steelers are going to play as hard as they possibly can to win the game. It all comes down to how well Seattle matches up with Pittsburgh, and how well Pittsburgh matches up with Seattle. Strength of schedule should be considered when analyzing regular season statistics, but don't use it as an angle for this game. I'm sick and tired of hearing about Seattle's strength of schedule, and how the AFC is heads and shoulders above the NFC. When the players take the field next Sunday, will all of this nonsense really matter?
I'm assuming you're talking about my latest post which points out Seattle's #2 ranking in regular season red zone defense. This assumption is based on the fact that I haven't offered any of my personal opinions on this game yet. I will say this, consider this my first personal comment on the Super Bowl, strength of schedule means absolutely nothing in this game! Both the Seahawks and the Steelers are going to play as hard as they possibly can to win the game. It all comes down to how well Seattle matches up with Pittsburgh, and how well Pittsburgh matches up with Seattle. Strength of schedule should be considered when analyzing regular season statistics, but don't use it as an angle for this game. I'm sick and tired of hearing about Seattle's strength of schedule, and how the AFC is heads and shoulders above the NFC. When the players take the field next Sunday, will all of this nonsense really matter?
Hello Nutz..
With all due respect, I can't believe your statement that strength of schedule means little in this contest when in fact the SOS is a good handicapping tool with regard to being able to judge with any degree of accuracy the statistics that each team accumulated during the regular season.
When considering that Pittsburgh defeated the AFC's #3, #1, and #2 seeds and did so on the road in each instance, its no wonder that they were installed as favorites over Seattle, an interesting little tidbit is that Cincy, Indy, and Denver were also ranked at the top of the NFL in allowing the least amount of QB sacks...yet the Steelers had a combined 12 sacks against these teams.
Oddly enough, it seems the same media talking heads that predicted a Carolina win over Seattle are now predicting a Seattle win over Pittsburgh, in hindsight Seattle was lucky to have defeated Washington when considering the Hawks layed the ball on the carpet three times, but then Seattle was fortunate to catch the Skins playing banged up and on the road for the 3rd straight week, the Hawks caught Carolina in the same manner in that the Panthers were reduced to using their 3rd string RB and was playing their 4th straight road game and 5th road game in a 6 week span.
This time Seattle will face a rested and healthy Pittsburgh team in a neutral setting and I am not sure the Hawks can handle it because a check backwards shows that 7 of Seattle's last 11 losses have occurred when away from the friendly confines of Quest Field, its also nice to know that Seattle has failed to cover 11 of their last 16 games ATS following a bye week.
take care my friend and be well
Jim
With all due respect, I can't believe your statement that strength of schedule means little in this contest when in fact the SOS is a good handicapping tool with regard to being able to judge with any degree of accuracy the statistics that each team accumulated during the regular season.
When considering that Pittsburgh defeated the AFC's #3, #1, and #2 seeds and did so on the road in each instance, its no wonder that they were installed as favorites over Seattle, an interesting little tidbit is that Cincy, Indy, and Denver were also ranked at the top of the NFL in allowing the least amount of QB sacks...yet the Steelers had a combined 12 sacks against these teams.
Oddly enough, it seems the same media talking heads that predicted a Carolina win over Seattle are now predicting a Seattle win over Pittsburgh, in hindsight Seattle was lucky to have defeated Washington when considering the Hawks layed the ball on the carpet three times, but then Seattle was fortunate to catch the Skins playing banged up and on the road for the 3rd straight week, the Hawks caught Carolina in the same manner in that the Panthers were reduced to using their 3rd string RB and was playing their 4th straight road game and 5th road game in a 6 week span.
This time Seattle will face a rested and healthy Pittsburgh team in a neutral setting and I am not sure the Hawks can handle it because a check backwards shows that 7 of Seattle's last 11 losses have occurred when away from the friendly confines of Quest Field, its also nice to know that Seattle has failed to cover 11 of their last 16 games ATS following a bye week.
take care my friend and be well
Jim
PLAYOFFS: (6-0)
SEAHAWKS +4
Underdogs own a 7-4-1 ATS mark when listed as a dog of four or less. Two running backs have led the league in rushing and played in the Super Bowl the same year (Smith, Davis). Both Dallas and Denver won. I'm hoping Alexander will make it 3 for 3. Everyone I have talked to likes Pittsburgh. This is the last chance for Vegas to make back some of the money it lost this year on the public favorites. Pittsburgh is a public favorite. The last 5 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 5 during the regular season in red zone defense. Seattle owned the #2 ranked red zond defense during the regular season. I'm not going against this trend. Last but not least, the dog has covered the number in 4 straight Super Bowls. I strongly believe that Seattle will make it 5 straight.
SEATTLE 28
PITTSBURGH 17
Good luck!
LL
SEAHAWKS +4
Underdogs own a 7-4-1 ATS mark when listed as a dog of four or less. Two running backs have led the league in rushing and played in the Super Bowl the same year (Smith, Davis). Both Dallas and Denver won. I'm hoping Alexander will make it 3 for 3. Everyone I have talked to likes Pittsburgh. This is the last chance for Vegas to make back some of the money it lost this year on the public favorites. Pittsburgh is a public favorite. The last 5 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 5 during the regular season in red zone defense. Seattle owned the #2 ranked red zond defense during the regular season. I'm not going against this trend. Last but not least, the dog has covered the number in 4 straight Super Bowls. I strongly believe that Seattle will make it 5 straight.
SEATTLE 28
PITTSBURGH 17
Good luck!
LL
Dr. Z,
Good to see that PERFECT PLAYOFF record - Congrats! :hail
I enjoyed going over your thread - nice f?ng run - wish we could've done that well 2 yrs ago.
You know how much $ I will be laying on this game, so take my angle for what it's worth - you also know that I am a Stillerz homer - but consider this.
I thought that the Steelers would play a close game with the Bengals, but would be lucky to come out of there with a win - that all went out the window with Carson going down.
I thought that there was a slight chance that Pitt could eek out a win in Indy, but I had pretty much resigned myself to losing to the eventual Super Bowl champs. When they came away with what many call a lucky win in Indy, I knew that they would manhandle Denver - never a doubt.
That is pretty much how I feel about this game as well. I feel that the score will likely be similar to the AFC/NFC championship game(s) score - quite possibly - the largest deficit in Super Bowl history.
Do I think Seattle is a good team? Yes. Do I think they're a great team? No. Is this disrespect, or looking past them for what they have accomplished? Maybe. I echo what many have already stated here in that Pitt has had the tougher ROAD and is in my opinion - "more ready" for the game.
I think that Pittsburghs' weakness is in their secondary, and this could definitely pose a problem. Pitt has snuck out of some sticky situations, and could be the undoing of a wonderful run for the Steelers. I expect Pitt's pass rush to disrupt Matt's timing, and Pitt's linebacker's to do the same in underneath patterns.
I would say that Seattle also has the edge at running back, but by a slight margin. The Bus will be non-existent as he has been all year round unless the Steelers get into short yardage/goal line situations/large lead. Wee-Willie Parker will carry the load, and will have minimal success early on the outside, but will find holes off of the right side of Seattle's D.L.
A large key to this game is going to be how successful the USC graduates are - as much as it pains me to say it. Even though Troy and Lofa play different positions - they both roam and will play similar roles in their teams' success. Which ever one has the bigger impact on defense/most success - will likely dictate the outcome.
I do reckon-ize the possibility of a close game, and that could even lead to another "Super Bowl first" - OVERTIME - but see that as a longshot. This would make us both happy - win for you & a win for the Stillerz, but don't count on it. As always - I wish you the best of luck - in all of your endeavours.
POINT OF INFORMATION: To all that care about Livin' Large and his capping abilities, he and I made a friendly wager on the Rose Bowl - "calling the score" - the closest one to the individual scores and the total - would buy dinner for the other one on our next trip to Vegas. - My "guess" Usc - 47 Tejas - 17
His "guess" - Tejas - 41 - Usc - 38. He and I are the only ones that knew of that bet, and I thought he should get some props on that - We both had a good laugh about it afterwards.
Good to see that PERFECT PLAYOFF record - Congrats! :hail
I enjoyed going over your thread - nice f?ng run - wish we could've done that well 2 yrs ago.
You know how much $ I will be laying on this game, so take my angle for what it's worth - you also know that I am a Stillerz homer - but consider this.
I thought that the Steelers would play a close game with the Bengals, but would be lucky to come out of there with a win - that all went out the window with Carson going down.
I thought that there was a slight chance that Pitt could eek out a win in Indy, but I had pretty much resigned myself to losing to the eventual Super Bowl champs. When they came away with what many call a lucky win in Indy, I knew that they would manhandle Denver - never a doubt.
That is pretty much how I feel about this game as well. I feel that the score will likely be similar to the AFC/NFC championship game(s) score - quite possibly - the largest deficit in Super Bowl history.
Do I think Seattle is a good team? Yes. Do I think they're a great team? No. Is this disrespect, or looking past them for what they have accomplished? Maybe. I echo what many have already stated here in that Pitt has had the tougher ROAD and is in my opinion - "more ready" for the game.
I think that Pittsburghs' weakness is in their secondary, and this could definitely pose a problem. Pitt has snuck out of some sticky situations, and could be the undoing of a wonderful run for the Steelers. I expect Pitt's pass rush to disrupt Matt's timing, and Pitt's linebacker's to do the same in underneath patterns.
I would say that Seattle also has the edge at running back, but by a slight margin. The Bus will be non-existent as he has been all year round unless the Steelers get into short yardage/goal line situations/large lead. Wee-Willie Parker will carry the load, and will have minimal success early on the outside, but will find holes off of the right side of Seattle's D.L.
A large key to this game is going to be how successful the USC graduates are - as much as it pains me to say it. Even though Troy and Lofa play different positions - they both roam and will play similar roles in their teams' success. Which ever one has the bigger impact on defense/most success - will likely dictate the outcome.
I do reckon-ize the possibility of a close game, and that could even lead to another "Super Bowl first" - OVERTIME - but see that as a longshot. This would make us both happy - win for you & a win for the Stillerz, but don't count on it. As always - I wish you the best of luck - in all of your endeavours.
POINT OF INFORMATION: To all that care about Livin' Large and his capping abilities, he and I made a friendly wager on the Rose Bowl - "calling the score" - the closest one to the individual scores and the total - would buy dinner for the other one on our next trip to Vegas. - My "guess" Usc - 47 Tejas - 17
His "guess" - Tejas - 41 - Usc - 38. He and I are the only ones that knew of that bet, and I thought he should get some props on that - We both had a good laugh about it afterwards.
Trump,
What's up bro? I'm really disappointed we aren't making the trip to Vegas for the Super Bowl. Let's definitely plan on hooking up in "Sin City" for March Madness.
Your Steelers have played incredible football this post-season. They should be favored to beat Seattle in this game. Beating the top three seeds on the road speaks volumes.
However, we both know that the best team doesn't always win. Pittsburgh has been fortunate the past two weeks to play with a lead. I believe Seattle will score first on Sunday, and Holmgren will dictate the tempo of the game from that point on. Both Seattle and Pittsburgh are strong defensively, so this game should come down to which team can execute better on offense. The passing game will be most important. In my opinion, Hasselbeck has a better receiving corps than Ben. Not to mention, Holmgren is an offensive genius. Give him two weeks to prepare, and the opposition is in for a long day.
I love the fact that many people are predicting a Pittsburgh blowout. It doesn't seem like the betting public is giving Seattle much of a chance to win. I guess the Seahawks will shock the world when they pull off the lopsided upset victory on Sunday. I can hear it now, "I never would've predicted in a million years that Seattle would spank the Steelers the way they were playing prior to the Super Bowl."
Best of luck!
LL
What's up bro? I'm really disappointed we aren't making the trip to Vegas for the Super Bowl. Let's definitely plan on hooking up in "Sin City" for March Madness.
Your Steelers have played incredible football this post-season. They should be favored to beat Seattle in this game. Beating the top three seeds on the road speaks volumes.
However, we both know that the best team doesn't always win. Pittsburgh has been fortunate the past two weeks to play with a lead. I believe Seattle will score first on Sunday, and Holmgren will dictate the tempo of the game from that point on. Both Seattle and Pittsburgh are strong defensively, so this game should come down to which team can execute better on offense. The passing game will be most important. In my opinion, Hasselbeck has a better receiving corps than Ben. Not to mention, Holmgren is an offensive genius. Give him two weeks to prepare, and the opposition is in for a long day.
I love the fact that many people are predicting a Pittsburgh blowout. It doesn't seem like the betting public is giving Seattle much of a chance to win. I guess the Seahawks will shock the world when they pull off the lopsided upset victory on Sunday. I can hear it now, "I never would've predicted in a million years that Seattle would spank the Steelers the way they were playing prior to the Super Bowl."
Best of luck!
LL
I hear ya'. I'm sure you do love the "Joe Public" sentiment, and I wouldn't blame you. I remember something similar one year in Vegas - taking our own little impromptu poll - "Who do you like?"
Overwhelming response: "The Rams."
We all know how that turned out.
But I also seem to remember it going the other way with Baltimore being the "public pick" in Vegas as well.
You're right, if Pitt gets behind 10 points early, it will change a little of the game plan. If that happens, I think it will be the latter - it WILL be a close game - similar to last year's late action rally.
What it ultimately comes down to is - you're on one side, or the other. The winning side will be the "I told you so." The losing side will be: "Damn, I never saw it coming."
Overwhelming response: "The Rams."
We all know how that turned out.
But I also seem to remember it going the other way with Baltimore being the "public pick" in Vegas as well.
You're right, if Pitt gets behind 10 points early, it will change a little of the game plan. If that happens, I think it will be the latter - it WILL be a close game - similar to last year's late action rally.
What it ultimately comes down to is - you're on one side, or the other. The winning side will be the "I told you so." The losing side will be: "Damn, I never saw it coming."
If you are speaking about Balt vs Giants then although it may have been the consensus in your little Vegas group, it was by far not the poplular play in that game.
