This is the Life.. Super Bowl Sunday

[James Witt]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but out of the ten playoff games so far, i have the dog covering five and winning those five straight up. Not once this playoff season has the dog covered without winning outright.

For that reason alone, I can well imagine the NFL engineering a three-point Pittsburgh victory, just as last week i went heavy on the overs because the first eight playoff games went all but one under.

I do believe the NFL makes deliberate, pre-set decisions on the way it will ref certain games, with the idea of making certain outcomes much likelier than they would be otherwise. I do believe ESPN and other networks know about these policies and deliberately don't talk about them to preserve the charade.

Case in point is 2001 Super Bowl, won by New England at +300 ML. You may remember the other event of 2001. You may think it's a coincidence that the "Patriots" just happened to win the Super Bowl that year.

I'm not a fan. I don't like teams. But in 2001 I saw all the StL Rams games. I will assert 100% that the Super Bowl was officiated like no other Rams game that year. I have great respect for Brady and NE, but as an objective matter, if that game had been officiated the way literally every other Rams game was that year, the Rams would have won.

I believe the head office passed on, informally, strong word to the refs that they were only under extreme evidential duress to call pass interference, banking that this policy would give the patriots better than a fifty-fifty shot at winning the game.

What do you think?

 

[Killian]

There is only one reason that the line opened up favoring Pittsburgh...the #6 over the #1. The oddsmakers knew that the world would be betting on the Steelers and the goal is to get an equal amount on each side. Don't be fooled by this and you will be fine. The only game that Pittsburgh totally outplayed the opposition was the last game over Denver which didn't surprise anyone really. Hasselbeck will be operating behind the leagues best offensive line, I doubt that he will have any trouble at all. Alexander will be running thru holes opened up by Strong and that offensive line........as long as his legs are strong, I really don't care how weak minded he might be. Actually, he is very bright and intelligent young man that does very much for this community.

I have been doing well in these playoffs......been right more than not. All that I'm saying is that this Seattle defense is so over looked that it's funny. They are small but fast.......that fact will shine on that turf that they're playing on. The same turf that is in Qwest Field.

 

[James Witt]

There is only one reason that the line opened up favoring Pittsburgh...the #6 over the #1. The oddsmakers knew that the world would be betting on the Steelers and the goal is to get an equal amount on each side. Don't be fooled by this and you will be fine.

#6 and #1 - these are reflections of one things: the losses resulting from Roeth.'s absence. Had he been uninjured, Pit's record would be better or equal to Sea's, and that against a more difficult schedule. Joe Average thinks he's looking at the real bottom line when he looks at records, and he discounts the circumstances that produced those records. "The trends say Carolina is 14-2 on the road at Seattle. I don't care if the team plane went down and they're fielding a bunch of high-school cheerleaders!"

The only game that Pittsburgh totally outplayed the opposition was the last game over Denver which didn't surprise anyone really.

Really. No one was surprised by Pitt beating Denver that soundly...in Denver...against 2x SB winner Shananan. I sure was. I coattailed Clem on the side, otherwise I would have bet only on the over, out of respect for Shanahan. Even though I thought Pit just might be a little better than Den, given the circumstances, it seemed to me very likely to come down to a FG.

Hasselbeck will be operating behind the leagues best offensive line, I doubt that he will have any trouble at all. Alexander will be running thru holes opened up by Strong and that offensive line........as long as his legs are strong, I really don't care how weak minded he might be. Actually, he is very bright and intelligent young man that does very much for this community.

Now there's a bet I wouldn't take.

I have been doing well in these playoffs......been right more than not. All that I'm saying is that this Seattle defense is so over looked that it's funny. They are small but fast.......that fact will shine on that turf that they're playing on. The same turf that is in Qwest Field.

They'll probably have a few good series. In the other few Pit will run up enough to win comfortably.

 

[Killian]

Yeah.....I bet your Steelers in that game. Was leaning towards Denver early but LL changed my mind. I think that the Steelers like everyone else thinks that this game is over before they have even snapped the ball. I watched the way that they celebrated after that win over Denver.....they were sky high. Kept dancing around.....saying we're going home, we're going home. LOL....I couldn't help but laugh, it was like they were surprised themselves.

Oh well......good luck with whoever you decide to play. It will be Seattle for me.....just waiting around for more Pittsburgh money to drive the line in my direction. Yeah, I know......what do you need points for? Well, it's been my experience that anything can happen and it's best to take the insurance.....especially if it's free.

 

[James Witt]

Yeah.....I bet your Steelers in that game. Was leaning towards Denver early but LL changed my mind. I think that the Steelers like everyone else thinks that this game is over before they have even snapped the ball. I watched the way that they celebrated after that win over Denver.....they were sky high. Kept dancing around.....saying we're going home, we're going home. LOL....I couldn't help but laugh, it was like they were surprised themselves.

They beat Denver in Denver! I'd say yee-ha too!

I think you're reading Seattle meaning into something that's purely internal-Pittsburgh. I don't see any overconfidence. As for their fans, sports fans are [X] by definition once they're over ten.

Oh well......good luck with whoever you decide to play. It will be Seattle for me.....just waiting around for more Pittsburgh money to drive the line in my direction. Yeah, I know......what do you need points for? Well, it's been my experience that anything can happen and it's best to take the insurance.....especially if it's free.

One thing I like to do sometimes is, when the public is really heavy on one side, go against that side in the first half, then back on it at halftime. It is quite possible Seattle will reverse the trend of the last couple games and prick Pit with an opening TD. Maybe Pit will be down at half. The public will flock to the new barn boss, and then the real value on Pit will kick in!

I wish I thought Seattle were going to win. The lines are set up for huge scores for anybody who thinks that way. Sea -3.5 +258. All I can see is Hasselbeck down two TDs mid-fourth. And throwing either a TD or INT so that Sea loses somewhere between 7 and 21 points.

I get in trouble when I think too hard. I start thinking, 'well, this could happen or that [could happen.' That thinking has been the basis of many a stupid bet. It's easy to imagine scenarios in which Seattle wins. Roeth could get Palmered, or Sea's soft schedule could be masking a grand champion, or I could be overrating what seems like a nearly unblemished string of victories here, there, and everywhere by HEALTHY roethlisburger. But I just don't think the percentages lie that way. When I keep it simple, and go wtih what's likely to happen rather than what could happen, it comes back that it's just likelier that Pit wins.

I prefer totals to sides, and unders to over. I think this leans to over. I think the fact that most games have been under so far argues for over; as does the prominence of the game. Somewhat mitigated by both games going over last week. I would not bet huge on the over, but I wouldnt bet on the under at all in this SB. I think both teams are likelier to move the ball through air. I think the total won't get pushed around by some hidden hand's agenda the way the side sometimes is. I see probably three TDs for Seattle, four for Pit, and a desperation INTD for good measure, early to get things going, or late to end things. Maybe a field goal or two.

I don't believe Seattle can stop Roeth's passing. I do believe Pitt can stop H more often than Sea can stop R. Roethlisberger is proven, Hasselbeck remains unproven. If Sea wins, it will have done for the first time this season -- beaten a very good team on the road -- what Pitt has done twice in the last two weeks. Anything could happen, but Pit manhandling the Seahawks is where the percentages lie.

 

[James Witt]

What I'm going to do is look for propositions. This "live" betting is more entertaining than monkeys with tubas. I like to bet against what just happened. So, Pit has got out and dominated the last few games. it just might get down a TD, then there'd be real value on Pit. You can also watch the game and identify the reason Pit's not up to snuff.

I don't trust the NFL not to manipulate the outcome, and, hell, Clem's on the Seahawks! That gives me pause as much as anything. Most times his reasoning makes clear sense; this week I dont' see it. I mean, I saw Seattle beat SF by a few touchdowns. After SF blew various opportunities and made multiple mistakes leading to easy scores. Somehow I just don't see that happening here.

 

[THE KOD]

I do believe the NFL makes deliberate, pre-set decisions on the way it will ref certain games, with the idea of making certain outcomes much likelier than they would be otherwise. I do believe ESPN and other networks know about these policies and deliberately don't talk about them to preserve the charade.

What do you think?

...............................................................

I think there was a extra shot from the
grassy knoll.

KOD

 

[KIKIN06]

i dont like to be on the other side of your pick clem d , but lets hope for this time you are wrong. lol.

 

[countinguy]

Clem,

I think you are on the right side of this one. Just because everyone and their brother is betting on this game, not just normal weekend bettors, everybody. And who else is MORE of a PUBLIC Team than Pittsburgh!!!!!! Hell Seattle has never even been to a Superbowl.. U know u go down to your local union hall or pool hall and start asking people, the normal joe is going to Pittsburgh will crush them because they know nothing about Seattle and probably never will. Old farts still think of Pittsburgh's glory days w/Bradshaw, and that will carry them into more of a publc play. Would not be surprised to see this line move to -5 before game. I am taking Seattle myself and I may put some coin on the moneyline.

GL GUYS

 

[Clem D]

clem your picking Seattle by 3 td's and you need 4 insurance points why no moneyline play:shrug:

Because if Im wrong.. and i have been before that 4 will bail me out.

Im also not ruling a moneyline out when more of the squares bet americas new team and drive it up to 185

 

[Clem D]

Oh and by the way... :mj22:

:mj07:

 

[vinnie]

Because if Im wrong.. and i have been before

ok I forgot about the seahag :grins:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

They haven't won a super bowl. I don't think they've played in one. Pittsburgh has won multiple. If Sea loses, everyone in and outside Sea will agree the team had a great year.



1) all teams react like this today. i believe it when the yankees do it; i don't believe it when seattle does it. 2) the game was over early. If they'd won it late 4th, it might have been different.



Hard to measure such things. imo, there's no emotional or injury edge here, as there definitely was in Car-Sea game.

James,

Good post. You have a lot of well thought out posts in this thread. As I just told someone earlier, I like it when someone spells out a detailed argument on this site, whether it's the same side as me or not. You're right that the community here already considers this is a great season. It's the first SB in franchise history. I just meant that I don't think the team will consider it a successful year if they lose in the SB.

Peppers was a little banged up but I'm not sure how much the injury affected him and how much Seattle's O-line just took him out of the game. Most of the game when I was watching him he didn't seem to be too banged up. Obviously that's a hard thing to tell when it's a shoulder injury, but it didn't appear as though he was favoring it to me. I can't disagree with the fact that Carolina wasn't 100% but I don't think they were going to win or cover that game even if they were. They didn't have much of a chance with Goings in there but I really don't think Foster would have had much success either. Maybe he would have done ok and maybe it would have taken a little pressure off Delhomme, but I still think they would have endured a similar fate. Seattle has the #5 run defense in the NFL. They have one of the best, balanced D-lines in football and they have young linebackers that absolutely fly to the ball. I think you hit it right on when you said that Roth will have to win the game for Pitt if they do in fact win. Actually, I don't think either team's running game is going to have a huge effect on the game to be honest. I think it will come down to the trenches and the QBs.

 

[James Witt]

...............................................................

I think there was a extra shot from the
grassy knoll.

KOD

And you're right!

 

[James Witt]

James,

Good post. You have a lot of well thought out posts in this thread. As I just told someone earlier, I like it when someone spells out a detailed argument on this site, whether it's the same side as me or not.

That's exactly how I feel. I appreciate hearing analysis, and also reports from the local areas. Picks without reasoning from 50/50s don't mean anything. The value of this board is people producing information we wouldn't find on our own, and giving us their attempts to weigh it. Let the guys who know what they're doing make the picks. I read 'em all, but pay particular attention to Clem, Bleed, bigkyle and Scott4USC and a few others. I've lurked for years.

I like sports betting because it holds a mirror to your character and ruthlessly kicks you in the nuts for your defects and pays you immediately for your clear thinking. It's one of few things in life with an objective standard. you go to school, some d*ckw*d doesn't like your opinion, he downgrades you. Nothing you can do. In betting, you can make or lose based on your ability, and the bullshit disappears. I cant' believe how the field has opened up in recent years. The new ability to push the line a point and a half and get odds is incredibly beneficial to players. Some guy once said 11/10 was stronger than death, but there's too much competition now - some of these books offer ordinary bets at 105 or 104. If you have anything on the ball and can discipline your betting, winning is within the reach of a lot more people than before.

You're right that the community here already considers this is a great season. It's the first SB in franchise history. I just meant that I don't think the team will consider it a successful year if they lose in the SB.

Peppers was a little banged up but I'm not sure how much the injury affected him and how much Seattle's O-line just took him out of the game. Most of the game when I was watching him he didn't seem to be too banged up. Obviously that's a hard thing to tell when it's a shoulder injury, but it didn't appear as though he was favoring it to me. I can't disagree with the fact that Carolina wasn't 100% but I don't think they were going to win or cover that game even if they were. They didn't have much of a chance with Goings in there but I really don't think Foster would have had much success either. Maybe he would have done ok and maybe it would have taken a little pressure off Delhomme, but I still think they would have endured a similar fate. Seattle has the #5 run defense in the NFL. They have one of the best, balanced D-lines in football and they have young linebackers that absolutely fly to the ball. I think you hit it right on when you said that Roth will have to win the game for Pitt if they do in fact win. Actually, I don't think either team's running game is going to have a huge effect on the game to be honest. I think it will come down to the trenches and the QBs.

We'll see. It's possible I'm greatly underestimating Seattle. I feel i have a pretty good read on them. I backed them at Phi, and over Washington and Carolina. Here I just see 'em overmatched, not by huge amount, but substantial. I doubt the points will matter. Assuming they call the game straight up, which is an unwarranted assumption, hence reason for caution.

Some may disagree, and no one seems interested in chipping in an opinion, but this country is chock full of bleeding morons. Tens of millions of these morons are sports fans. There are political implications to the biggest game. I believe the NFL did its bit for the common good by queering the reffing to help the Patriots win the Super Bowl in 2001, assuming the tens of millions in the Left Behind crowd would see it as a Sign, and get behind our attack on Iraq. Just my opinion. The refs stood down on calling pass interference in that game rather like NORAD on 9/11. Do you remember how good Kurt Warner was at his peak, before he messed up his hand?

I'm a little worried that Hasselbeck isn't as easy to force into mistakes as many QBs. But i do think on the whole Pit is better, and if there's one of the big guys likelier to crack under pressure, it's Alexander. I see a traditional super bowl. Lots of passing and screwups and flags and fun and points. I feel Seattle will put up good resistance, but the longer they play, the more points Pit will be ahead by.

Giggety-good luck to you in your bet, Glenn!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

That's exactly how I feel. I appreciate hearing analysis, and also reports from the local areas. Picks without reasoning from 50/50s don't mean anything. The value of this board is people producing information we wouldn't find on our own, and giving us their attempts to weigh it. Let the guys who know what they're doing make the picks. I read 'em all, but pay particular attention to Clem, Bleed, bigkyle and Scott4USC and a few others. I've lurked for years.

I like sports betting because it holds a mirror to your character and ruthlessly kicks you in the nuts for your defects and pays you immediately for your clear thinking. It's one of few things in life with an objective standard. you go to school, some d*ckw*d doesn't like your opinion, he downgrades you. Nothing you can do. In betting, you can make or lose based on your ability, and the bullshit disappears. I cant' believe how the field has opened up in recent years. The new ability to push the line a point and a half and get odds is incredibly beneficial to players. Some guy once said 11/10 was stronger than death, but there's too much competition now - some of these books offer ordinary bets at 105 or 104. If you have anything on the ball and can discipline your betting, winning is within the reach of a lot more people than before.



We'll see. It's possible I'm greatly underestimating Seattle. I feel i have a pretty good read on them. I backed them at Phi, and over Washington and Carolina. Here I just see 'em overmatched, not by huge amount, but substantial. I doubt the points will matter. Assuming they call the game straight up, which is an unwarranted assumption, hence reason for caution.

Some may disagree, and no one seems interested in chipping in an opinion, but this country is chock full of bleeding morons. Tens of millions of these morons are sports fans. There are political implications to the biggest game. I believe the NFL did its bit for the common good by queering the reffing to help the Patriots win the Super Bowl in 2001, assuming the tens of millions in the Left Behind crowd would see it as a Sign, and get behind our attack on Iraq. Just my opinion. The refs stood down on calling pass interference in that game rather like NORAD on 9/11. Do you remember how good Kurt Warner was at his peak, before he messed up his hand?

I'm a little worried that Hasselbeck isn't as easy to force into mistakes as many QBs. But i do think on the whole Pit is better, and if there's one of the big guys likelier to crack under pressure, it's Alexander. I see a traditional super bowl. Lots of passing and screwups and flags and fun and points. I feel Seattle will put up good resistance, but the longer they play, the more points Pit will be ahead by.

Giggety-good luck to you in your bet, Glenn!

Um, wait, are you Special Agent Jack Bauer?! :mj07: Kidding. The NFL, NBA, MLB, etc... they're all big business. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they were corrupt in some way(s). There's a shitload of money to be made in each of them so I think it's a bit naive to think they are all squeaky clean in all facets. Not saying I have proof or anything like that, just saying I'm not as wide-eyed as I was when I was younger.

Your analysis sounds pretty good. It seems like you've looked at this game pretty hard and Pitt is the right side for you. I was just starting to get the impression that a lot of guys were discounting the Seahawks simply because they're the Seahawks. You're obviously not doing that. And you definitely hit the nail on the head with Alexander. I can't stand him. Not only is he a selfish a-hole but he's VERY soft. When you are as big as he is you shouldn't be a finesse back, but that's exactly what he is. I've said before if a defense socks him in the mouth early in the game they can pretty much take him out of it. I thought Carolina would do that to him but I was clearly wrong. Washington WAS doing it to him but he got knocked out of the game so it's hard to say what he would have done. The 9 yards on 6 carries wasn't exactly impressive though.

Giggety giggety to you as well! One thing is for sure, after the game is over one of us will be saying aaaaaaaaaalright! :mj07:

 

[Clem D]

Not sure this is my thread anymore..

Not sure this is my thread anymore..

But I figured I'd pop my head in here anyway.

I took the following snippit from ar182's thread to illustrate a point I 'm looking at.



So far this year, all the money has been on the Steelers. Many places opened Pittsburgh either -3 or -3 ?. The Steelers are now -4, with some books up to -4 ?.

?We?re going to need Seattle in a big way,? said Bob Scucci, race and sportsbook director at the Stardust Hotel, during the Monday morning Stardust Line radio show. ?There are not a lot of believers in Seattle.?

Scucci said the ratio of tickets written on Pittsburgh is 5-1. He wouldn?t be surprised if the game closes Pittsburgh -5 ?.

?Once it gets off 4 the floodgates open up,? he said. ?The key is how much bookmakers take at 4 before getting off.?

What?s scary for bookmakers is that both wise guys and recreational bettors are on Pittsburgh. It was sharp money that pushed the Steelers up.

Scucci estimates 70 percent of the action is still to come. That could be a conservative estimate. Other bookmakers say 90 percent of the bets come during the final four days. Most of this handle comes from the general public.

And the general public likes the Steelers.


After reading the above the first time I was slightly nervous about my play. The more I thought it through however the more confident I grew.

Why would the books stay on 4 and get hammered this long? Seems to me they want that Steeler "Public Money" to keep pouring in. Maybe they feel like I do and the more balanced offense will wear the Steelrs down all day.
If the books wanted equal action they would have set the line at 6 or even 7. Why do they want onesided action here?

The answer seems chrystal clear to me.

 

[Kazaam]

Speaking of fixed games, I have theory, crazy as it may be. Players could not fix games because they're mouthes are to big and they could not keep them closed. Coaches might be able to by calling bad plays but what coach would want to see their team lose especially when it counts. My bet would be the refs!!! For instance Pitt verse Indi. The whole world saw the interception by Pomamalu but the ref came back and said incomeplete. Mistake or fixed to get indi back in the game? No one really knows these refs and they are very low profile. If it is fixed this is the only way it could be as I see it. If you see the flags a flying at an end of the game drive, that will effect the spot, to me that is what vegas wants!! (Because it always works against me when I with the masses.)

 

[vinnie]

5 & 5- are dead numbers in the nfl you only have a edge after 4- is if it goes to 6

 

[Clem D]

Added some props on some Seattle special lines.

Seattle -4 +260 (local)
300

Seattle -10.5 +400
200

Seattle -14.5 +700

150