James you might want to shorten your post in case you have to pull up one of your kitchen chairs.
GL clem stay hot pal. :mj14:
GL clem stay hot pal. :mj14:
amich1 said:Clem,
Just wanted to say something to you you & everyone here a/b the write-ups w/ your plays. The insight you put into your write-ups shows you understand not just stats & football but the intangibles that seperate good cappers from bad.
I've lurked on this site for awhile (& many others as well) & capped NFL for many years & this yr. I've noticed how you've consistently identified intangible angles in your write-ups that have made the difference in games. Vast majority of gamblers never stop to think a/b what intangibles might exist in any given game that will override or complement any particular statistcal advanatage or disadvantage. Week in week out, you've spotted & written a/b these things,correctly dismissing hyped aspects and focusing on what will or won't actually sway the game. I'm sure others have noticed the same thing, just thought I'd point it out for those that gloss over that aspect of your capping, think your just lucky, or think you can't "live the dream". You just have to know what you're doing.
Clem, Kudos on a great season, no matter how the sb turns out
JCam said::clap:
Hello Blazer..
You are totally correct in that the public appears to be in love with Pittsburgh in this years Super game and by game time will probably have driven the line up to Pittsburgh -5 or -5.5.
However, I would caution you to not make this be the sole reason for wagering against Pittsburgh with regard to playing the role of a contarian, keep in mind that the public backed favorites all season long in the NFL this year and was rewarded with a 60% winning rate.
With regard to your statement of taking the #1 seed over the #6 seed, historically speaking this method would have cost you dearly because a check of the past 10 years reveals that the higher seeded team has posted a record of 1-7-2 ATS in the past 10 Super Bowls.
take care and be well
Jim
Clem D said:Well folks this is it. Were in the middle of week 1 of this two week freak show leading up to the big game.I believe the "4' is a pretty tight line and action seems pretty even so far. Before the games even kicked last week I knew who I was playing in the Bowl. Yes before the games kicked off. I was quite sure Seattle would survive and I honestly felt they could handle either AFC team. (Especially Denver)
My thinking is that Seattle's defense is vastly underated. Pittsburgh the last few weeks has won through the air and I have noticed that Willieparker has lost a step due to end of season fatigue. He has not been able to get to the corner to make things happen. Bettis while a nice story is no more than a short yardage back at this stage of the game. Big Ben has been awesome, but I think since the hags will not have to bother with the run too much they can throw some strange coverages at Big Ben and confuse him into mistakes. (see delholme) I think they can shut ward down.
On offense the Seahawks offensive line can make holes for Alexander. Hassleback looks very comfortable back there and who wouldn't with all the time and the great running attack. Seattles offense is so tough to stop because they are very balanced. They can run when you think pass and pass when you think run. The Steelers if they haven't already will turn into the bells of the ball in Detroit, and some things I'm reading, have them either quite sure of the victory, or quite impressed on how they got here.
My feeling on how they got there is running the gauntlet of three straight road games against the top 3 seeds has to take something out of you. I feel emotion and heart had a big piece in getting them here. The week off may ease some of the physical effects of the "gauntlet" they faced. It will not however aid in keeping the momentum. It will garner a "house money" effect in my opinion. A "we were not supposed to get here". A "Hey if we can beat the Colts attitude".
Meanwhile the Seahawks as a top seed fly under the radar and swoop in for the Lombardi trophy. Seattle wins 34-13. I maybe wrong but I'm getting 4 points insurance.
Seattle +4
1100/1000
.................................................................FirstnGoal said:I respect your opinion but think your on the wrong side and here's why...the Hags had a great season but have preyed on a platter-full of inferior opponents during the season...they beat a decent Redskins team in their first playoff game and then beat a banged up Panther team coming off of 3 on the road last week...
Scott-Atlanta said:.................................................................
Uhhh
So Seattle is a very very good NFL team.
Just because a # 1 team plays against inferior teams during the season, does not mean they are not still a very very good team. [/Size]
James Witt said:the unfinished business applies to cowher more than holmgren. if anyone's satisfied just being there it's seattle, who's never been anywhere.
Glenn Quagmire said:I'm sure a lot of people assume this to be the case simply because Seattle has had a losing past, but it's simply not true.
As I said in another post, the Seahawks celebration after beating Carolina was very subdued. There was no champagne and the players really didn't go crazy. I watched the interviews after the game and to a man they ALL said the same thing... "We aren't celebrating because we EXPECTED to win this game and get to the Super Bowl."
I have to plead ignorance about how Pittsburgh is approaching the game. I assume their handling in much the same way as Seattle. But I know for a fact that Seattle isn't content with just getting to the SB.
Glenn Quagmire said:Scott,
Thank you for posting this. I've been saying the same thing for a long time. The "weak schedule" argument has been beaten into the ground on this site. The Seahawks don't make their own schedule and why on earth should they be punished for beating up on weak teams? If they had lost to weaker opponents then I would say the weak schedule argument could be used, but to assume that a team isn't good simply because they had the benefit of a fairly weak schedule seems a bit presumptuous to me.
And besides, they've looked pretty good in the playoffs. Isn't it funny how the majority of the posters on this site were on the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but now that the Seahawks beat them it has nothing to do with the Hawks, it's just because the Panthers were beat up. Funny how that didn't stop them from betting on the Panthers before the game isn't it?!
vinnie said:clem your picking Seattle by 3 td's and you need 4 insurance points why no moneyline play:shrug:
Killian said:Seattle defense will shut down the Pittsburgh running game and make Roethlisberger beat them......with over 50 sacks this year, I don't think that he can do it. Seattle completely dominated that Carolina offense that destroyed the Chicago defense that many all year long called the best in the NFL. In short ......Seattle D stopped an offense that the Bears had no answer to. Seattle will win this game .........because like everyone else in the country the Steelers think that the game is already over. It's gonna be fun to watch Pittsburgh's reaction when they smack this defense in the mouth.....and they find a team that smacks back.
Good Luck all.......
Killian said:Haven't been as easily impressed as you ...........and the Steelers are gonna need as much time on that clock as possible. Either way it's gonna be fun to watch. Good Luck !!
Killian said:Haven't been as easily impressed as you ...........and the Steelers are gonna need as much time on that clock as possible. Either way it's gonna be fun to watch. Good Luck !!
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