James you might want to shorten your post in case you have to pull up one of your kitchen chairs.
GL clem stay hot pal. :mj14:
GL clem stay hot pal. :mj14:
This is the Life.. Super Bowl Sunday
- Thread starter Clem D
- Start date
amich1 said:
Thanks for the nice words.
I appreciate all the feedback. Wish this game would just get here. The two weeks while in this place will help my pick, it generall sucks.
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JCam said:
Thanks for the reply jim, its nice to see someone disagree but not be disrespectful.
Your comment about the last 10 also reveals that the dog in the Super Bowl is 6-2 ATS (2 pushes).
The last time a #1 seed faced a "Wild Card" it got real ugly. Chicago jammed up New England 46-10.
I understand that this year the favs are doing well, even more reason for me to fade the public and expect a return the the mean.
Thanks for the caution but I have many reasons for thinking Seattle is the pick. The #1 seed, NFL MVP, #1 WR D. Jackson missing most of the season and being very overlooked in the postseason, a complete WR core that will spread the field and Pitts D,Hasselback being the most underrated QB in the NFL, and a Seattle D that has quietly gotten consistant pressure on QBs using four man fronts.
gl with however you pick.
be well.
edit link:admin, please no links on the fourm to pay service sites.
spotted an error on that SB print out:
SB 30 between Dall and Pitt won by Dall 27-17 and the spread @ 13.5 it lists Dall winning as the dog.......well they were NOT the dog they were the fave........remember it because I won a playoff tournement on the old AOL board that year.......had Pitt +13.5 and the farthest they got behind was 13.......great game
SB 30 between Dall and Pitt won by Dall 27-17 and the spread @ 13.5 it lists Dall winning as the dog.......well they were NOT the dog they were the fave........remember it because I won a playoff tournement on the old AOL board that year.......had Pitt +13.5 and the farthest they got behind was 13.......great game
Clem D said:
You've had a great year Clem but I'm absolutely Floored by your score prediction! Seahags 34-13 WOW!...I respect your opinion but think your on the wrong side and here's why...the Hags had a great season but have preyed on a platter-full of inferior opponents during the season...they beat a decent Redskins team in their first playoff game and then beat a banged up Panther team coming off of 3 on the road last week...I was on the Hags last week for many reasons...but this week I just can't back them...the Hags are 0-1 this season facing a team that uses a 3-4 scheme and the Steelers play a hell of a 3-4...the speed and quickness of the Steelers rush backers will be too much for the Hags O-line to handle...one will argue - what about OT Walter Jones the perennial Pro Bowl Tackle...Jones struggled against smaller, quicker rush ends this season and was taken apart by the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware and the Giants Usi Umineura...this week he has the task of slowing down the Steelers Joey Porter..ugh!...all in all...and a reason I already played a prop (Hasselback to be sacked over 1 1/2 times) is the Steelers "D" will be too much for the Hags to handle...also...I like the Sehawks Defense (their D-line and Linebackers- with 2 rookie starters and I like their Safeties... but their Corners can be exploited...I think Big Ben and his offense will find a way to do just that...I can't wish you good luck because as you see I'm on the other side as I Locked in the Steelers -3 (bought the 1/2) early in the week...Steelers 27-17...but I can say you had a terrific season and wish you the best of luck for the rest of the year!
There is one thing for certain!
One of us will be right!
:toast:
.................................................................FirstnGoal said:
Uhhh
So Seattle is a very very good NFL team.
Just because a # 1 team plays against inferior teams during the season, does not mean they are not still a very very good team.
The best teams tend to get better as the year goes (witness Seattle defense) on.
As long as they can hone their skills in games thats all a really good team needs to improve. They dont have to always play the upper tier of teams to win a Super Bowl game.
Seattle has met the test and I hear dogs barking in my back yard.
It seems simple enough.
What I have to ask myself in this game, is where did the Pittsburg Steelers show weakness this year? And what were the circumstances ?
Is that weakness still there for Seattle to exploit ?
I think the answer to that question, will win the Superbowl play.
The books are playing with our heads making Pitt the favorite out of the shoot. The public always loves to play their money on the favorite,
the best team of the two.
I knew that the minute I seen it.
I read one time that the Super Bowl game is bet on just for the sport of it by the public more than any other game. Everybody in America wants some action if they are going to have to watch it anyways.
Books looking for the sucker money. Pitt is going to kill them. Look what Pitt did to Indy.......
Famous last words
I was going to jump on the Super Bowl with, Seattle at -4 if it listed at that.
Now the best thing to do is wait for the line to go up.
GL with your play Clem.
Let the books eat some cake.
KOD
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Scott-Atlanta said:
Scott,
Thank you for posting this. I've been saying the same thing for a long time. The "weak schedule" argument has been beaten into the ground on this site. The Seahawks don't make their own schedule and why on earth should they be punished for beating up on weak teams? If they had lost to weaker opponents then I would say the weak schedule argument could be used, but to assume that a team isn't good simply because they had the benefit of a fairly weak schedule seems a bit presumptuous to me. And besides, they've looked pretty good in the playoffs. Isn't it funny how the majority of the posters on this site were on the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but now that the Seahawks beat them it has nothing to do with the Hawks, it's just because the Panthers were beat up. Funny how that didn't stop them from betting on the Panthers before the game isn't it?!
James Witt said:
I'm sure a lot of people assume this to be the case simply because Seattle has had a losing past, but it's simply not true. As I said in another post, the Seahawks celebration after beating Carolina was very subdued. There was no champagne and the players really didn't go crazy. I watched the interviews after the game and to a man they ALL said the same thing... "We aren't celebrating because we EXPECTED to win this game and get to the Super Bowl." They also went on to say that they weren't done yet and had to win one more game to consider their season a success. I think that's how this Seahawks team differs from teams in the past. They fully expect to win every game they play, no matter who they are playing.
I have to plead ignorance about how Pittsburgh is approaching the game. I assume their handling in much the same way as Seattle. But I know for a fact that Seattle isn't content with just getting to the SB.
Glenn Quagmire said:
They haven't won a super bowl. I don't think they've played in one. Pittsburgh has won multiple. If Sea loses, everyone in and outside Sea will agree the team had a great year.
1) all teams react like this today. i believe it when the yankees do it; i don't believe it when seattle does it. 2) the game was over early. If they'd won it late 4th, it might have been different.
Hard to measure such things. imo, there's no emotional or injury edge here, as there definitely was in Car-Sea game.
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Glenn Quagmire said:
Has nothing to do with "punishing" anybody. No one is criticizing you or Seattle, we're analyzing the schedules for clues to future perforance.
The argument is that Seattle's beating weak teams does not allow one to draw conclusions either way about whether Seattle can beat great teams. The fact that Seattle can beat, say, SF, Stl, Ariz does not suggest anything, at least to me, about whether it can beat Pit.
Whereas, Pit whipping, I mean kicking the living dogshit out of Payton Manning, clueless Dungy and , even more impressively, whipping the snot out of slick Shanahan's group at home - that tells me that yes, Pit can whip anyone in the league.
That's the difference. Yes, I suspect most of the public will see it the same way. But the public is often right. And, imo, there are no hidden emotional/injury incentives, it's a straightforward game in front of us.
Is there a single solid reason to think Sea might be able to succeed where better teams failed? Clem feels Pit's runner has lost a step, and that the team may be road-tired. We'll see; I think it's just as possible Alexander gets another "concussion."
Four points is something but after a score, it's not much. Come on, this is one of those dome games. Yes, the last couple SBs have been close, but something's going to crack here, back to the usual pattern.
I was on Seattle because of the circumstances, and on Pit because of Big Clem. I fear betting against Shanahan; he is a better coach than either of the two remaining. Under the CIRCUMSTANCES last week, the game set up very nicely, almost perfectly, for Seattle. Give Car two weeks off, a healthy RB, a neutral field, I'd give a slight edge to Carolina. But last week, the advantage was definitely with Seattle. The guys who went with Carolina, the dumb ones, were overrating the previous week's performance against the Bears; the smart ones were following very impressive trends but trends that could not take into account the actual CIRCUMSTANCES of the ONE game in question - specifically, the injuries. Trends are a good but gross tool; they cannot be applied blindly with hope of success. Imo, they're better used as reasons NOT to bet on a game than TO bet on one. Formerly Bearded Clem correctly called this particular game, and as the poster above says, he is excellent at nailing intangibles and picking what turns out to be the decisive factor, in this case injuries to Pepper and the RB.
But that's why I'm saying this week I disagree with him, because i don't think this game will be decided by emotional or injury factors. Both teams are healthy and have pretty much the same incentive to win. It's straight up, and imo the difference will be Roethlisberger. I really do think he's going to be the next Joe Montana, or perhaps should say Bradshaw.
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vinnie said:
That's a good question. If I felt Sea were going to blow 'em out, I'd consider this strategy:
1) alternative line: Sea -3.5 +258
insured by:
2) teaser: Sea +10/ Over 41
Note that over/under is 3-7 in the playoffs so far. There are those who say there's no logical connection, but I believe there is, and, although I prefer unders, I think the Over is likelier in this case. Should be a passing game, and SB tend to go over. In a nice dome; refs' hands limbered up, practicing their quick draws every time a pass over 20 yards is uncorked.
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Seattle defense will shut down the Pittsburgh running game and make Roethlisberger beat them......with over 50 sacks this year, I don't think that he can do it. Seattle completely dominated that Carolina offense that destroyed the Chicago defense that many all year long called the best in the NFL. In short ......Seattle D stopped an offense that the Bears had no answer to. Seattle will win this game .........because like everyone else in the country the Steelers think that the game is already over. It's gonna be fun to watch Pittsburgh's reaction when they smack this defense in the mouth.....and they find a team that smacks back.
Good Luck all.......
Good Luck all.......
Killian said:
The spot to make the big bucks on Sea was last week. Your last line reads better for Seattle than Pittsburgh.
"Make" Roethlisberger beat them? I guess you don't make much of the last two weeks. The same ESPN that promotes black QBs because they are black dismisses Roethlisbergers as "game managers." This guy is no Dilfer, this guy is budding Brady. In seeing through political correctness lies great opportunities.
Hey, Hasselbeck is good. I like him; he has come a long way. He might be able to snake this game simply because he avoids Favrelike mistakes. But we're talking about likelihoods, and it's just plain likelier that Pit with its numerous small advantages will end up winning the game and covering the number.
Based on plain evidence of the last few weeks, I draw the conclusion that Roeth is option number one and the backs are there to run out the clock.
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Here's a way to look at the game.
You can take your 1k to the bank, and invest it in a checking account with interest. A year later you'll have $1020, that will be worth less than you started with, thanks to that inflation that doesn't exist.
Or, you can put that money on pit on the money line and walk away with 1600 in three hours. If this were an ordinary game, i'd take the -4, probably push it to -5.5 for the odds on, but as this is the super bowl, and i do believe per bleed's theory re nba that these games are to an extent scripted beforehand, i can definitely see pit winning by three points. that would screw more people than any other combination. in my opinion, and i'd be interested in hearing from anyone who disagrees, the prime time games, the sunday/monday night games, the sole-focus games, have a far higher likelihood of being ref-engineered out of normal orbit.
You can take your 1k to the bank, and invest it in a checking account with interest. A year later you'll have $1020, that will be worth less than you started with, thanks to that inflation that doesn't exist.
Or, you can put that money on pit on the money line and walk away with 1600 in three hours. If this were an ordinary game, i'd take the -4, probably push it to -5.5 for the odds on, but as this is the super bowl, and i do believe per bleed's theory re nba that these games are to an extent scripted beforehand, i can definitely see pit winning by three points. that would screw more people than any other combination. in my opinion, and i'd be interested in hearing from anyone who disagrees, the prime time games, the sunday/monday night games, the sole-focus games, have a far higher likelihood of being ref-engineered out of normal orbit.
Haven't been as easily impressed as you ...........and the Steelers are gonna need as much time on that clock as possible. Either way it's gonna be fun to watch. Good Luck !!
Killian said:
It's fun arguing, and I certainly don't mean anything personal to you or Clem or anyone. I might say that if you buy Seattle, you are more easily impressed than I am for favoring Pittsburgh. Beating a couple homeless bums to death with a shovel is less impressive than winning steel-cage UFC title!
My opinion is that the likeliest outcome, 1/2, is Pit winning by 7-14. But there's a good 1/4 chance due to Seattle's quality and the off-chance they're better than their weak schedule has allowed them to show and the possibility that the league will have the refs engineer a tight outcome that this will be a field-goal decision. If there's a blowout, 1/4 chance, I'm confident Seattle will be on the wrong end.
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Killian said:
Killian, the theme in your reasoning is an overestimation of Carolina. Carolina is a team that is great with points and in spots - all things being equal. They were not equal last week because that wasn't Carolina - two of its main guys were messed up. That cost you the chance to make money that week. You overestimated INJURED, TIRED Car's threat to Sea, now you're overestimating Sea's victory over an INJURED, TIRED Carolina.
Pit isn't injured.
Pit isn't tired.
Pit is playing a semi-home game.
Sea is a long, long way from home, in a hostile sea.
You're going to need a truly remarkable performance from weak-minded Alexander and nonplussed Holmgren and above-average-and-improving Hasselbeck to win this game.
You're betting uphill if you bet on Seattle.
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