Please give me your input regarding.....

[UT-Longhorn]

.....how long it takes to realize what teams are good, and which teams will remain near the bottom for the year. I am thinking of another chase, where you play on each team that is #1 in their division, to win 1 game in each series. Then, on the flip side, you fade each team that is at the very bottom of their division, to lose atleast once in each series. So right now--

The Top Teams-
Boston
CWS
Angels
Mets
Houston
San Fran

Bottom Dwellers-
Toronto
KC
Seattle
Florida
Pitt
San Diego

Considering this in addition to what im already doing, just looking for thoughts. Have we had enough games for this to be viable?

 

[jpblitz]

UT, I think that sounds like a great idea. I can see Toronto climbing out of the cellar more than likely (my opinion). I was also considering chasing the top two teams from each division. Chasing against the bottom dwellers sounds like a great idea. Overall I think we should give teams a good month to sort out who are the real crap teams. However with the new series starting today. I think I am going to stay away from chasing the bottom dwellers. (unit%-to-bankroll=too high still).

jp

 

[BBB]

yea, I think Toronto shouldnt be faded. Think they will rise up soon.

 

[gman2]

to group seattle and toronto in with pittsburgh/san diego/florida/kansas city is probably unfair. i definitely think there's something to be said for a progressive fade against some bottom dwellers. but toronto and seattle have been a victim of their schedule so far and are nowhere near as bad as the rest of that group. of course, that kinda goes along with your original question of 'how long does it take....'. also, to consider san fran a top team would be incredibly presumptuous -- they play in the worst division in baseball and wouldnt sniff the playoffs if they werent in the west. as it stands, theyre only 3 games up on san diego (who you have as one of the WORST teams). so i think you could get yourself into a lot of trouble playing consistently on/against ANYONE in the national league west.

 

[bryanz]

The Yankees are a top team , The Phillies could end up very close to the bottom. SEATT & TOR are 500 or better teams in the end.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Thanks guys for your input.

Gman, regarding what you said, so if you were to pick a few teams to tail, and some to fade, would you just avoid the NL West all together? Any teams you would add to the bottom dweller? Do you agree with the Top teams? any you would add to that?

 

[Wise and Wiser]

UT, you better have a large bankroll because you're going to be laying some major chalk if you decide to play this new system. Why not play a progressive chase system on the dogs instead? Then, if you lose a series, you won't get killed in the process. I wish you the best of luck in whatever you decide, but you are flirting with danger! I wouldn't recommend this system to anyone.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

what kind of dog chase system could a person do?

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Figure out which team will be the underdog in all three games, and play that team progressively until you win your goal. If that team doesn't win a game, then that progressive is over. Let me give you an example. Pittsburgh will be an underdog in all three games against Houston this weekend. If they're not favored tonight with Duke pitching, they won't be favored at all. Let's say your goal is to win $100 on Pittsburgh. You would lay $100 tonight to win $105. If that doesn't cash, tomorrow you would play Pittsburgh to win $200. If that doesn't cash, you would play Pittsburgh on Sunday to win your money back from the first two games plus $100. Much safer progressive system in my opinion, and you don't need a huge bankroll.

 

[jpblitz]

UT, you better have a large bankroll because you're going to be laying some major chalk if you decide to play this new system. Why not play a progressive chase system on the dogs instead? Then, if you lose a series, you won't get killed in the process. I wish you the best of luck in whatever you decide, but you are flirting with danger! I wouldn't recommend this system to anyone.

Wise, If you avoid chasing the bottom dwellers I dont see the real danger. I don't know the percentage of home teams (excluding last place teams) that get swept. It is my understanding that this is a very very low percent.
One reason I like this system is that it allows you to almost play the predictability factor, that a team will not get swept. Being smart about the series you choose to chase.
Just my opinion on the whole situation. Probably not worth much.

jp

 

[Wise and Wiser]

JP, his new system would chase division leaders and fade bottom dwellers. Trust me, he would be laying serious chalk! In order to make money, you must have a large bankroll, and you must be close to perfect in your predictions.

 

[jpblitz]

Wise, Hey just read over everything again. I didnt realize those chases would be in addition to the regular chases. As I'm reading these posts, I am trying to divise a system of chases that eliminates higher risk teams (of getting swept that is), for myself. Thanks for the feedback ... Are u getting close to your goal this week ? I usually watch your picks and see how you fair. Good Luck my man

jp

 

[Wise and Wiser]

$1,644 to go! Hopefully I'll achieve it tonight. If not, it will happen by Sunday. Best of luck to you.

 

[BuffaloBill]

JP and UT,

WW is right. This is the point that I have been trying to make.

The system is good, but you need a HUGE bankroll.

Jp made a good point. Just be very selective about the series you chase.

You can't chase EVERY home team this year.

The juice will catch up with you.

Do the numbers on paper based on last year's results and you will see what I am talking about.

Especially with that recouping method that UT is using. Sooner or later those chases will become VERY high and will make the system not worth it.

Bottom line, be selective in the series that you chase.

WW also brings up a good point. If you don't want to put your money on shit teams, then just lay off that series.

Or, do what WW said and try chasing some dogs that have a legitmiate shot at winning a game in the series, such as Pitt this weekend.

Even if they lose all 3 games, you have not lost that much.

One more suggestion. If you like the huge favorites, then try a chase series using the run line. I know that they have to win by 2 runs now, but I would feel safer with that than laying such heavy juice.

Good luck guys.

 

[jpblitz]

Bill, Thank You, I fully understand your point. The juice will catch up. Which leads me to develop a bit more selective chase system, Which is in the works. Thanks for your input, great to talk these matters over with other cappers!

jp

 

[Kegger]

I fully understand what WW is stating. He is right, just look at his record playing mostly dogs.
I think that UT original "home series system" is the way to go WITH selective picks. Such as this weekend, the wise move (no pun intended) is to take Cleveland, not KC.. Does anyone think KC will sweep Chicago at home? If so, pass on it.

On the other hand, will the best team, say the Mets right now, get swept at home vs the one of the worst teams, Pitt? probably not, so laying the juice for 3 games will most likely earn a profit by the time game 3 is over, right?

UT's home chase system has gone 15-0 the last 2 series. I am tracking the full season on this and have been betting on it this week. Best system I have seen by far (besides following WW!). The best way to go with this system is to be 'selective' and to carry losses over to the team's next home series!

Good Luck Fellas!
:toast:

 

[UT-Longhorn]

actually you dont need a huge bankroll, you just need to make sure your 1 unit isnt big at all, actually very small. I did this chase 2 years ago, started with $500 using $5 for 1 unit and turned it into $7500 by the end of the year using the home system, so it does work. You just cant get greedy and jump your units with every series win.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

I fully understand what WW is stating. He is right, just look at his record playing mostly dogs.
I think that UT original "home series system" is the way to go WITH selective picks. Such as this weekend, the wise move (no pun intended) is to take Cleveland, not KC.. Does anyone think KC will sweep Chicago at home? If so, pass on it.

On the other hand, will the best team, say the Mets right now, get swept at home vs the one of the worst teams, Pitt? probably not, so laying the juice for 3 games will most likely earn a profit by the time game 3 is over, right?

UT's home chase system has gone 15-0 the last 2 series. I am tracking the full season on this and have been betting on it this week. Best system I have seen by far (besides following WW!). The best way to go with this system is to be 'selective' and to carry losses over to the team's next home series!

Good Luck Fellas!
:toast:

I agree, but am starting to wonder about some series- IE-Mets at Padres. System says take Padres, gut yesterday said Mets and look what happened. I wonder if the Padres will get swept at home, again. Makes me wonder if I should analyze each series, or, just do the system somewhat blindly, bucking KC.

 

[Kegger]

I agree, but am starting to wonder about some series- IE-Mets at Padres. System says take Padres, gut yesterday said Mets and look what happened. I wonder if the Padres will get swept at home, again. Makes me wonder if I should analyze each series, or, just do the system somewhat blindly, bucking KC.

I played the SD/NY series in part because it is 4 games. Would like to see the 4 game series swept stats, but wouldn't think many teams get swept at home for 4 games. Peavy would be the game I thought they'd win.

I'm playing Cleve this weekend. Just going to be selective, not playing it blind.

 

[SANKS]

Home Chasing System

Home Chasing System

I just recently started following UT's home chasing system and I am very impressed so far. As well as you others, I do wonder if I should be betting blindly every series, and not take into consideration the teams that are playing. I think if you have the proper bankroll, you should chase a team that gets swept at home until they win their next home game. I don't know exact stats, but I don't think too many teams have gotten swept at home 2 straight series. I believe the only time to bet blindly and not be selective at all is in a 4 game series. The % of teams getting swept at home in a 4 game series has to be very minimal. I think some selectivity should come into consideration when putting money against the Yankees sweeping the D Rays in Tampa, because we all know the odds are better of it happening than not. Please let me know what you think of this comment, because I want to know if I should continue betting in the dark, and not having any say in the teams I am putting money on.