plays & info for 9/21-9/23....

[AR182]

35-25....+14.29*

last week i had a very good week....hoping to continue with these..all for 2* unless noted....

i usually don't look to play halfs on games, but i know somebody who does. & since i played 2 on opening week that he recommended & hit both, i thought i would try my luck again.

the first 2 plays are identical plays on under the 1st half totals on 2 separate games. all 4 teams involved apply to the trends that i list. eventhough the trends state that the totals should be at least 21.5,i still played them at 21.....


u 21(1st half) miami o/syracuse.....

play under - all teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (miami ohio) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 ypg), in non-conference games

28-0 over the last 5 seasons.....100%

play under - all teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (syracuse) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 ypg), in non-conference games

28-0 over the last 5 seasons....100.%



u 21 (1st half) marshall/tenn....

play under - all teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (marshall) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 ypg), in non-conference games

28-0 over the last 5 seasons....100%

play under - all teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (tenn.) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG), in non-conference games

28-0 over the last 5 seasons....100.%

good luck.

 

[ajoytoy]

great season AR...continued success sir

 

[jdp1152]

isn't 21 outside of the 21.5-24.5 range

 

[wareagle]

isn't 21 outside of the 21.5-24.5 range

:SIB

eventhough the trends state that the totals should be at least 21.5,i still played them at 21.....

GL THIS WEEKEND AR!

 

[treynolds]

Sounds good to me, Good luck this weekend

 

[Irish]

GL this weekend AR

Great weekend last week hope it keeps up.

Cheers
Irish

 

[addikted]

Thanks for posting AR and keep up the great work!!

 

[Cie]

Great job last week. Continued success...

Cie:weed:

 

[AR182]

thanks very much guys..appreciate it.


adding all for 2* unless noted.....


marshall+24(130)....

i got this at 23 & bought a full point when lines first came out. tenn. lost a heartbreaker last week against fla.& feel that they emptied their tank in that game & will come out flat this week.

a trend supporting this play...

play on a road team (marshall) after being outgainedby 225 or more total yards in their last game returning 8+ offensive starters & qb against an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters.

since 1992 ats record is 25-4 ats....86.2%


texas-23....

went against iowa st. last week vs. iowa & thought that iowa st. gave their everything in that game. so i wonder how much they have in their tank vs. a hungry texas team. this is their first home game since they lost to osu at home a few weeks ago & i look for mack brown to go for the throat in this game....to get back up in the polls & have their friends forget about the osu loss.


over 52(120) wvir./e.car.....

i very rarely plau a game to go over..but couldn't resist with this game.everybody knows how potent wvir. is, but i think a good passing attack team, like ec, can score on the wvir. defense.


under 52(130) af/wyom...

i've taken the under in the last 2 wyoming games & it has come in. i think their rush defense will do enough to slow the air force running game.


under 56 lou/kst.....

kst's new offensive system is still a work in progress (87th in the nation in total offense) & their defense has played well. lou is coming off last week's biggest win in school history & is missing their starting qb & running back.i look for lou to be flat in this game.


4*akron-17.....

this is akron's only home game in the first 6 games of the season & it's also their first home game since last year's bowl appearance..so i expect them & their fans to be stoked. akron's defense has played very well against the run allowing 3 ypc & 95 ypg against the offenses of penn. st., ncst., & c. mich. n. tex. does not put much emphasis on their out of conference schedule (1-11 ats during last 3 seasons) & is usually a very bad road team as witnessed by their 0-11 ats mark as a road dog in the last 3 years.they have 1 returning starter back from last year's defense & rank just above utah st.as the worst offense in the nation(they have scored 34 total points this year & 10 total points in 2 road games). they just played at tulsa last week in a revenge game & play their conference opener next week.i think they did very little preparation for this game & look for akron to win big.

good luck.

 

[buddy]

Al,

I'm on the other side of the TEXAS game. Despite losing 27-17, Isu had the Hawkeyes tied going into the fourth quarter. Drew Tate pulled it out for the Hawkeyes. Texas may be anxious to take out their poor showing against Ohio State on someone, but I think they have their hands full this week w/ Bret Meyer & co.

 

[AR182]

buddy...

you may be right....if you are...it'll be one of the many games that i loose this year...hopefully i'll have more wins than losses at the end of the season.

good luck to you.


adding....

under 41(120) vir./g.t....

first off we know that virginia won't score many points tonight. but i don't think g.t. will either. 21 of the 67 points scored against virginia was the direct result of turnovers taken the other way for scores. the virg. defense (one of the few teams in the nation that play a 3-4 defense) has only allowed a total of 46 points (to pitt.,wyom, & w. mich.) which averages out to a little over 15 points per game....that's not too bad. sure g.t. scored over 30 points the last 2 weeks, but that was against samford & troy st. they scored 10 points against n.d's defense in the first game of the season.stat wise g.t.'s offense is below normal & if their star receiver doesn't play (listed as ? for tonight) everything falls on the shoulders of a very erratic qb (reggie ball).g.t. plays v.t. next week.

if virginia can limit costly turnovers, i see this game ending up in the mid 30 range.


good luck.

 

[#cruncher]

Sounds interesting ARI...but I would be careful about the Tenn/Marshall game...Catch a good team that has been beat/embarrassed the game before and they can come out lightning up the scoreboard in a hurry...and in that case I like to make a first half play on that team (Tn) ATS wise...just something to consider.

 

[AR182]

Sounds interesting ARI...but I would be careful about the Tenn/Marshall game...Catch a good team that has been beat/embarrassed the game before and they can come out lightning up the scoreboard in a hurry...and in that case I like to make a first half play on that team (Tn) ATS wise...just something to consider.

cruncher..

thanks for your feedback.

i don't consider tenn.'s 1 point loss last week to a very highly rated fla. team to be embarrassing.i think fullmer & his team should be proud of the way they played. imo,they spilled their guts out last week & that is the reason why i took marshall & the first half under.

but you may be right...in that case read my post to buddy.

good luck.

 

[buddy]

21 of the 67 points scored against virginia was the direct result of turnovers taken the other way for scores. the virg. defense (one of the few teams in the nation that play a 3-4 defense) has only allowed a total of 46 points (to pitt.,wyom, & w. mich.) which averages out to a little over 15 points per game....that's not too bad.

There are handicappers and then there are handicappers.

Thanks, Al.

 

[AR182]

here are some other plays i'm going with...if i have time i will back with write-ups....

all for 2*...

mich.st.+4(120)
wash.+4(120)
stanford+10
conn...ml
under 48 ind/conn.
under 51 usc/az.
under 41(120) ark. st/smu

middle..
oregon st.-22(130)
idaho+28(150)

good luck.

 

[RexBudler]

Thanks and best of luck to you this weekend buddy

 

[buddy]

Thanks

 

[Blackman]

Good call on the under last night, giving UCONN a long look right now, think I might play that ML.

Best of luck and thanks for the info.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate all of the comments.

tonight i'll try the under again...

under 49 nw/nev....

the total opened at 54.5 with pinnacle but i grabbed it at 48.5 earlier in the week & bought the .5 point.

let me just say that this is a different nw team than we are used to seeing. they are not doing much on offense because they have rookie qbs playing for them, but they are running the ball very well. on the other side of the ball, nw dramatically improved their defnese the 2nd part of last year & it looks like that is continuing so far this year...& they are defending the run very well. last week they did a very good job against the spread offense, so i think they should be able to contain the nevada offense.

i watched nevada play arizona st. on the road a few weeks ago & their defense was severely outclassed vs. a very good asu offense. but their defense did a pretty good job of containing fresno on the road & last week at home they held col. st. to 10 points & allowed about 70 yds. rushing.i think at this point of the year the col. st. & the nw offenses are pretty similiar in that they both have inexperienced qbs & have a good running attack.

i just read that nevada will be without their best offensive lineman tonight, so i think that may hinder nevada's blocking schemes where they may not have enough time to throw the ball downfield.

for those who like systems or trends...here are 2 to support this play....

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (northwestern) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game.

ats record is 36-11 (76.6%) over the last 5 seasons.

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (northwestern) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in September games.

ats record is 26-6 (81.2%) over the last 5 seasons.


good luck.

 

[addikted]

Thanks for posting and good luck as always AR.