USC VS. UCLA game discussion

johnnyb.

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the line is currently usc -13.5 and total is 47.

obviously if trojans win, they play ohio st. for a national title. ucla today accepted a bid for the emerald bowl vs. florida st. in san francisco.

both schools have good defenses usc #28 & ucla #32 in ncaa. the offenses vary a bit more usc #23 & ucla #70. both teams hardly fumble but in take aways usc #68 & ucla #12. sacks usc is #44 & ucla is #4.

scott4sc gets alot criticism for his homer takes but he knows sc best of all of us. he always talks about pete carroll's defensive theory is bring a lot of pressure to the QB. and create turnovers. the stats above speak for themselves, ucla's defense can do it better.
not ready to say if the total or a side is a better play but i wanna put it out there...
 

Craiger

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Common opponent

Common opponent

One thing that stands out to me is that UCLA has fireworked to the occasion last two outings... beating Oregon State Nov.11th 25-7 as -2 chalk and then a road dog +5.t at AZ st. and shutting em' down 24-12. How coincidental is the common opponent power rating with USC's only loss being against Oregon State this year which UCLA handled sufficiently?.. very interesting 8
 

blgstocks

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If I had to pick an angle on this I would take the under, but I will probably stay off of it unless I hear some convincing evidence that moves me.
 

Craiger

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IMO this could be the devil's advocate play o'the day with home dog UCLA. laying an achille's heal early play

<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
College Football
UCLA 12/2/2006 4:30:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +13? -110 for Game
Risking 110.00 To Win 100.00 USD
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now to wait for that money line :SIB
 

HoopsGuru

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if you want to talk about common opponents look at ND. ucla scored 17 on them and looked how much usc scored on the irish. i think usc wins this game around 17-21 pts.
 

ET4646

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Would love to take the points but don't know how UCLA is going to score?
 

flapjack

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I say take the points - buy it to 14. This is scary similar to the situation 2 years ago when these teams played and UCLA outplayed USC and almost pulled off the upset. Major opportunity for a down game from the Trojans. They've had to get up for 3 straight big time games all at home. UCLA has had 2 weeks to prepare and are at home. UCLA already knows what bowl its going to so has absolutley nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating their rivals. Exact opposite for USC.

UCLA's D should keep them in the game - it will be one of the best D's USC's O has seen all year. UCLA wont score much on Of, but I see a 24-17 type of game myself. Turnovers will be the key and as Johnnyb mentioned, UCLA is very good in that department. Despite great stats on the year, Booty has had some brutal stretches of bad decisions turning into TO's vs ASU and ND. Both those D's are flat out awful.

If I didn't live and die with SC, I'd be on the under, UCLA + the points and a little shot on UCLA ML parlayed to the under = very nice payout.
 

el JB

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will take the points

will take the points

i believe in my pants this will be a def vs def match and the play is the UNDER ...but if choose sides is the issue..i'd take the points and buy the hook
if it's not already + 14 when i place the bet
 

pt1gard

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maybe im naive but that line was set at 13.5 for a reason ... if it was 14 i would be more inclined to think UCLA might not be plucky that day ... they are a strange team, shoulda beat ND on rd. with more gutty play calling on their last series; then WSU just crushes them in LA ... dont like their team much, but who knows in this rivalry

gl, gregg
 

johnnyb.

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theres been alot of talk about who coach dorrell was going to start at QB. the incumbent big ben olson the lefty or runner pat cowan who is right-handed???

it was a surprise to everyone when dorrell announced cowan would get the nod on saturday. some say ucla should of waited till saturday to announce so usc would have to prepare for either but most thought big ben would get his job back...
receivers say the spiral comes at them differently so maybe this will help as they've seen cowan for 6 straight games.
 

Scott4USC

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USC is focused and prepared. Not looking past UCLA. Practices have the same intensity as last week. PC always has his team prepare the same way for every opponent. Just another game but with different gameplans. USC is also more healthy vs UCLA than they were vs ND. USC starting DT didn't play against ND and should play against UCLA. RB Washington is little bit healthier and RB Moody is back at 90%.

USC just got another game under their belt last week and will be that much better this week. The team keeps on improving every week. PC has USC peaking at the right time (which I told everyone USC would be a machine in November like they always are) and UCLA is in trouble. :scared

TIDBIT, PC was upset when UCLA claimed moral victory over USC 2 years ago. GAME was not as close as the scoreboard suggested. The following year USC won 66-19. No moral victory for the bruins. USC scored 31pts in the 1h, but scored 35pts in 2h. PC will always run it up on the 2 rivals, ND and UCLA. If USC is up 10pts in the 4th, I guarantee you USC will be trying to score and make it 17pt lead to prevent any type of moral victory.

Lastly, huge coaching advantage for USC! ;)



This is scary similar to the situation 2 years ago when these teams played and UCLA outplayed USC and almost pulled off the upset.

:wtf:

USC won 29-24. USC lead by 10pts at half, USC had 29-17 lead with 4min. left in 4th quarter. USC had ball up 29-24 on UCLA 14 yard line with 1min. left and Bush fumbled.

USC had 477 total yards on offens vs UCLA having 295. USC had 235 yards rushing vs only 17 yards rushing for UCLA. USC dominated Time of Possession with 9 min. advantage.

Not sure how UCLA outplayed USC? Where did UCLA almost pull the upset? :shrug:

*********************


One thing that stands out to me is that UCLA has fireworked to the occasion last two outings... beating Oregon State Nov.11th 25-7 as -2 chalk and then a road dog +5.t at AZ st. and shutting em' down 24-12. How coincidental is the common opponent power rating with USC's only loss being against Oregon State this year which UCLA handled sufficiently?.. very interesting 8

:mj03:

USC played @Oregon St..

2nd, USC had 4 turnovers (2 unforced) against Oregon St. AND gave up a punt return TD. Oregon St. had ZERO turnovers against USC.

@UCLA, Oregon St. turned the ball over 4 times. (like they often do)

UCLA +2 turnover ratio, USC -4 turnover ratio.

Not sure if you can even compare the 2 games.

Playing against USC and playing against UCLA is different. Not the same.

NOT SO INTERESTING!
 

Skipper

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Scott:

I agree with you on many of your points, including the fact that Carroll will not let them look past this game, although I see UCLA covering the #.

However, you going back to the turnover stat all the time is getting old. Turnovers are a part of the game and in most cases, turnovers decide the outcome. Therefore, you going back to that stat to justify that loss is becoming old. We all know that turnovers decide games, but just admit that USC lost the game. No call decided the outcome. Unforced or not, USC lost the game PERIOD.

People would respect you more if you just said, Oregon St. was better than us, JUST LIKE TEXAS was last year. But you have to make excuses for the refs blowing a call, etc. That's all man, just say we lost and like USC, are getting better.

Everyone can grow up from time to time. I try every day, maybe you should too.

JMHO and good luick with your bets, if you have any, this weekend.
 

Nick Douglas

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I find it interesting that the line seems to be in about the same place as last year. If you figure 4 points for the home team, that means at the Coliseum it would be USC -21.5 (or am I figuring that wrong?).

If I am figuring this right, that kind of line seems odd. UCLA had one loss last year coming into the game. They have 5 losses this year and they are playing with a backup QB who is 2-4 (or something like that) as a starter.

Last year I remember sports talk radio out here was pretty much unanimous in thinking that 20+ points was too many for USC to cover. Obviously that spread was never in doubt after the first half. This year it seems that bookmakers have made a severe correction. I dunno if that means that UCLA is a great play here or not, but it might.

I think Scott brings up a few good points above, especially the fact that the loss to OSU was really more of a fluke than people realize. Still, we are in a letdown situation as we try to make it an unprecendented 5 seasons in a row with wins over ND and UCLA.

I'm not going to make any concrete predictions because I'm going to be rooting for USC anyway. That is an interesting line, though.
 

Nick Douglas

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Skipper,

Texas was better than USC on January 5, 2006. 7 out of 10 of the rest of the days of the year, USC was better. Texas won their championship fair and square just like George Mason won the 2006 Washington D.C. regional over Connecticut fair and square.
 
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Scott4USC

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However, you going back to the turnover stat all the time is getting old. Turnovers are a part of the game and in most cases, turnovers decide the outcome. Therefore, you going back to that stat to justify that loss is becoming old. We all know that turnovers decide games, but just admit that USC lost the game. No call decided the outcome. Unforced or not, USC lost the game PERIOD.

I did the same with Ohio St. and they beat Michigan.

UNFORCED turnovers should never be labled as part of th game. Why? Because the opponent did NOTHING to force it. Ohio St. had 2 unforced turnovers and was -3 turnover ratio against Michigan. That showed me how good OSU is and how poorly Michigan is. If they played again, I would think OSU wins by 20+.

USC lost to Oregon St. because they were -4 turnovers (-4 tunover ratio and 2 unforced turnovers) ON THE ROAD and gave up special teams TD. You can't do that.

USC still only lost by 2pts. Says a lot how good USC is. If USC played Oregon St. again, I would think USC wins by 20+.

This is called analyzing the teams. I don't just look at the final score. If I did that, I might think Michigan/OSU was a classic game. But if you watched the game or looked at it closely, it was ANYTHING BUT A CLASSIC GAME. OSU dominated and OSU kept Michigan in the game.

Same with USC/Oregon St. There was a huge reason USC lost by 2pts @OSU. It really had nothing to do with Oregon St.

But if you think Oregon St. competed with USC, and UCLA blew out Oregon St, and factor that in your handicapping, you are simply being mislead.

That is why you play the game. $hit like that can happen.

People would respect you more if you just said, Oregon St. was better than us, JUST LIKE TEXAS was last year. But you have to make excuses for the refs blowing a call, etc. That's all man, just say we lost and like USC, are getting better.

USC was only -1 turnover against Texas (not -3 or -4), but 1 of USC's turnovers was unforced. On top of that, USC had 2 HUGE REF calls that went against USC. NCAA publicly admitted refs blew it twice against USC and both would be reversed if they used instant replay. Quite frankly, Texas would have lost if both calls were reversed. Despite all this stuff against USC, USC still was up double digits mid way in the 4th quarter. :scared

Says a lot about USC last year and how good they were. -1 turnovers, 2 huge blown calls by refs in Texas favor, and USC coming up short on TWO 4th and 1's in the game. Game of inches and USC fell short. Props for Texas making those key 4th down stances. I base a lot of my opinions on facts. Or I try and use facts to support my opinion. Why? You can't dispute facts and that makes my arguments stronger.

If USC played Texas again last year, I think USC would win by 10+ pts.

All in all, USC has only themselves to blame. ML not making 4th and 1 sneak early in game. Reggie Bush making an illegal lateral inside Texas 30 yard line. Lendale White not making game wnning 4th and 1 play. Also, a play nobody talks about was VY on his game winning drive threw a ball right to USC DB and the USC DB knocked it down instead of intercepting it. BONEHEAD play. I was glad when he (ting) left the team last year a year early!!!! :) Lastly, USC had Texas on 4th and 4 and VY won the game. PROPS TO TEXAS! Made plays when they had too, and benefited from plays as well.
 

flapjack

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:wtf:

USC won 29-24. USC lead by 10pts at half, USC had 29-17 lead with 4min. left in 4th quarter. USC had ball up 29-24 on UCLA 14 yard line with 1min. left and Bush fumbled.

USC had 477 total yards on offens vs UCLA having 295. USC had 235 yards rushing vs only 17 yards rushing for UCLA. USC dominated Time of Possession with 9 min. advantage.

Not sure how UCLA outplayed USC? Where did UCLA almost pull the upset? :shrug:

*********************

5 point game, 1 minute left, BCS-Bound SC fumbles, 6-6 UCLA recovers the ball and SC hangs on to win 29-24. Yeah, what was I thinking? No chance of an upset in that game what so ever.

They were also up by all of 6 at the start of the 4th qtr and 5 with just over 2 minutes left. I wont even mention a certain play right before halftime and its impact on the game. Also, your new favorite arguement - what would have happend if SC didn't win the T.O. battle in that game?
 

Skipper

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Scott,

Obviously, my point shows true and everyone can see that. You cannot just say, yep we got beat and leave it at that. That is why you will never be respected, because you cannot be a man and admit it.

Nick,

Last I checked, you only have to beat someone once in the NC game, so your point is useless. Again, like Scott, you cannot just say, props, we lost, they won. This is why you will never be respected.

Until both of you learn to admit when you are wrong or when you lose, you will never be respected.

It is one of the hardest things to do in life, but it makes you more of a man. Good luck to both of you in learning some of life's lessons.:sadwave:
 

edludes

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Nov 2005 quote from Scott USC"Texas has so many USC weapons they have to stop.All USC has to stop is Vince Young."Sounded smart before the game,problem was USC couldn't stop Vince Young anybetter than anyone else could last season.It was like Gulliver playing with the Lilliputions.You were 180 degree off in your assessment of how easy USC could stop Young last year(All they have to do...........)Usc will not cover the 13- this week.I'll always remember the look on old usually smug Carrolls face as Young stepped on,over and around those gold and garnet uniforms for the national championship winning touchdown.Remember how that felt Scott and Nick Bad Day Douglas?I'll bet your diapers needed changing,Stay humble now.You're not #1
 
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