Oregon St (-3.5) over Mizzou
This was a very tough game for me to call because both teams are playing well and have a lot of talent. Statistically Mizzou should win the game, they have the edge in every catagory numbers wise. Oregon State's secondary gives up plenty over yards, but it stiffens up in crunch time and is great around the goal line. Hawaii had two separate chances to turn the game around on long drives before getting denied deep in Beaver territory. The same thing happened to USC late. Daniel gets most of his work out of the shotgun and likes to make plays on the move, especially to the tight ends, so moving the ball at a regular clip shouldn't be a problem; there will be plenty of plays over 15 yards. But without a true pounder of a back and with Daniel occasionally prone to force throws that aren't there, getting over the goal line will be tougher than it might seem considering the yards Mizzou will finish with. The Beavers aren't going to be able to control the game with the ground game, even with a physical offensive line leading the way for Bernard, but it should be effective enough to force the Tiger linebackers to stay at home. There isn't much of a Tiger pass rush without Smith, so Moore should have plenty of time to operate and mix up his throws. Picking the right spots to hit Stroughter deep will be key, while taking what the Tigers give him on blitzes will also be vital. The quicker Moore reads what Mizzou is doing, the more one-on-one coverage he'll sniff out. He's been doing a good job at that lately. Quarterback Chase Daniel leads a high-powered Tigers offense that averages 414.3 yards, 12th-best in the nation. The Beavers have 17 interceptions this year, and defeated USC in large part because they were able to force the Trojans to turn the ball over a season-high four times. Oregon State is tied with Western Michigan for the 4th-most turnovers created with 31, and have forced at least two turnovers in each of their last seven games. This game will come down to the offenses, Moore and Bernard are talenbted with experience. The overall team experience if a reason for my play. They have come on of late and players have been talking about how the PAC-10 has not represented well this bowl season. Both teams are strong at quarterback. Oregon State's Matt Moore hasn't thrown an interception in 161 passes, the longest active streak in the NCAA, and Chase Daniel shattered school records with 26 touchdown passes and 3,179 yards while also serving as the second-leading rusher in Missouri's spread offense. Oregon State finished third in the Pac-10 at 6-3, with a balanced offense, an aggressive defense that led the conference with 44 sacks and a knack for making big plays at the finish. The Beavers won their last two games by a total of five points, and four victories in all were secured at or near the end of the game. Oregon got hot late in the season and Mizzou played poorly but won their last contest. This will be a back and forth game but in the end IMO Oregon St has the talent and aggressiveness to take over.
Cheers
Irish