AP's Mock Draft: Russell Over Quinn
By DAVE GOLDBERG
AP Football Writer
Brady Quinn acknowledges that he's like a stock, rising and falling on a minute-to-minute basis. That's how the NFL draft works, especially with quarterbacks ? Matt Leinart fell from first to 10th last season and Aaron Rodgers, once considered a potential No. 1 pick in 2005, ended up 24th overall.
Just part of the game in which the draft begins the day after the previous one ends ? scouting services already are ranking prospects for 2008 and 2009.
That brings us back to Brady, who spent most of his final two seasons at Notre Dame as the presumptive No. 1 for 2007.
Then he didn't play very well in the Sugar Bowl against LSU and JaMarcus Russell did. So Russell is now supposed to be No. 1 and Brady has dropped. How far? To second, seventh, ninth, 24th and even into the third round, where one "expert" put him.
Stop right there.
There are no "experts," including the people doing the drafting ? anyone who's been doing it for more than a year has had his failures.
Example: the late George Young was executive of the year five times during nearly 20 years as general manager of the Giants.
But primarily because he did well lower in the draft, not necessarily at the top.
Recent examples: in 1993, Young used his first-round pick on quarterback Dave Brown in the supplemental draft, then chose Michael Strahan in the second. In 1996, he took a defensive end named Cedric Jones with the fifth overall pick and Amani Toomer in the second round. In 1997, Ike Hilliard in the first and Tiki Barber in the second.
In other words, the "expert" took first rounders who either didn't make it (Brown and Jones) or weren't as good as a second-rounder (Barber over Hilliard).
So take this for what it's worth. Some of these guys will fail. Guys taken late will succeed, as seventh-rounder Marques Colston did with New Orleans last year. And this first round is not what it will look like when they do it for real in 25 days.
Because stock rises and falls and no one really knows anything.
___
1. OAKLAND. Al Davis loves quarterbacks who can throw the ball 80 yards in the air. But it's not done in games, so why should it matter? It matters with Davis, one reason he wants JAMARCUS RUSSELL, QB, LSU. The Raiders are 15-49 since going to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season so it will take more that Russell to fix that, especially lying on his back. A building block. Maybe.
2. DETROIT. Matt Millen is in denial. The Lions are 24-72 since he took over and he thinks the coaches he hired are to blame.
He has potentially great players to pick from here, none better than Calvin Johnson, almost unanimously regarded as the best overall player available. But Millen took wide receivers three straight years and only Roy Williams panned out. So if he takes Johnson, people will laugh at him. (As if they aren't already.)
Quinn? He's traumatized by Joey Harrington.
Joe Thomas, a stud left tackle? Well, Robert Gallery was a sure shot left tackle in 2004 and now he's a bum (see Raiders above).
Adrian Peterson, the best running back in the draft? Why not?
Maybe he trades down and still gets one of them. Let's give him BRADY QUINN, QB, Notre Dame whose stock price is rising again.
3. CLEVELAND. Johnson would be a luxury for the Browns. But they might threaten to take him to work a deal with Tampa Bay. Quinn makes sense if he's here but he's not. So it's ADRIAN PETERSON, RB, Oklahoma.
4. TAMPA BAY. Jon Gruden may not know if Jeff Garcia or Chris Simms is his QB (anyone for Jake Plummer?) but he wants CALVIN JOHNSON, WR, Georgia Tech, catching passes. Who wouldn't?
5. ARIZONA. We're being nice to the Cardinals. Their offensive line stunk last year and JOE
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By DAVE GOLDBERG
AP Football Writer
Brady Quinn acknowledges that he's like a stock, rising and falling on a minute-to-minute basis. That's how the NFL draft works, especially with quarterbacks ? Matt Leinart fell from first to 10th last season and Aaron Rodgers, once considered a potential No. 1 pick in 2005, ended up 24th overall.
Just part of the game in which the draft begins the day after the previous one ends ? scouting services already are ranking prospects for 2008 and 2009.
That brings us back to Brady, who spent most of his final two seasons at Notre Dame as the presumptive No. 1 for 2007.
Then he didn't play very well in the Sugar Bowl against LSU and JaMarcus Russell did. So Russell is now supposed to be No. 1 and Brady has dropped. How far? To second, seventh, ninth, 24th and even into the third round, where one "expert" put him.
Stop right there.
There are no "experts," including the people doing the drafting ? anyone who's been doing it for more than a year has had his failures.
Example: the late George Young was executive of the year five times during nearly 20 years as general manager of the Giants.
But primarily because he did well lower in the draft, not necessarily at the top.
Recent examples: in 1993, Young used his first-round pick on quarterback Dave Brown in the supplemental draft, then chose Michael Strahan in the second. In 1996, he took a defensive end named Cedric Jones with the fifth overall pick and Amani Toomer in the second round. In 1997, Ike Hilliard in the first and Tiki Barber in the second.
In other words, the "expert" took first rounders who either didn't make it (Brown and Jones) or weren't as good as a second-rounder (Barber over Hilliard).
So take this for what it's worth. Some of these guys will fail. Guys taken late will succeed, as seventh-rounder Marques Colston did with New Orleans last year. And this first round is not what it will look like when they do it for real in 25 days.
Because stock rises and falls and no one really knows anything.
___
1. OAKLAND. Al Davis loves quarterbacks who can throw the ball 80 yards in the air. But it's not done in games, so why should it matter? It matters with Davis, one reason he wants JAMARCUS RUSSELL, QB, LSU. The Raiders are 15-49 since going to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season so it will take more that Russell to fix that, especially lying on his back. A building block. Maybe.
2. DETROIT. Matt Millen is in denial. The Lions are 24-72 since he took over and he thinks the coaches he hired are to blame.
He has potentially great players to pick from here, none better than Calvin Johnson, almost unanimously regarded as the best overall player available. But Millen took wide receivers three straight years and only Roy Williams panned out. So if he takes Johnson, people will laugh at him. (As if they aren't already.)
Quinn? He's traumatized by Joey Harrington.
Joe Thomas, a stud left tackle? Well, Robert Gallery was a sure shot left tackle in 2004 and now he's a bum (see Raiders above).
Adrian Peterson, the best running back in the draft? Why not?
Maybe he trades down and still gets one of them. Let's give him BRADY QUINN, QB, Notre Dame whose stock price is rising again.
3. CLEVELAND. Johnson would be a luxury for the Browns. But they might threaten to take him to work a deal with Tampa Bay. Quinn makes sense if he's here but he's not. So it's ADRIAN PETERSON, RB, Oklahoma.
4. TAMPA BAY. Jon Gruden may not know if Jeff Garcia or Chris Simms is his QB (anyone for Jake Plummer?) but he wants CALVIN JOHNSON, WR, Georgia Tech, catching passes. Who wouldn't?
5. ARIZONA. We're being nice to the Cardinals. Their offensive line stunk last year and JOE
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