The Docket - NCAAF Week One

The Judge

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Nevada vs. Nebraska
Saturday, September 1, 2007 ? 3:30 pm EDT
Last year the Nevada Wolf Pack were the gambler?s darlings going 10-2 ATS in a relatively weak WAC schedule but since 2004, HC Chris Ault?s teams have been a very poor 2-8 ATS when getting points on the road. For this trip to Lincoln, the Pack will be without LB Ezra Butler who was their leading tackler from last year but is suspended for this game. Additionally, Nevada lost 10 starters including two of their defensive backs to graduation which means that this defense that gave up an average of 44 points in their last two road games should have a hard time even slowing down a balanced and dangerous Husker attack.

Nevada?s offense this season will be run by QB Nick Graziano who has very limited experience at the college level and that will be compounded by the fact that the Pack will be playing without injured star Center Dominic Green and Graziano will instead be taking snaps from a third stringer. The punting game borders on terrible which should translate into good field position for Nebraska on multiple possessions.

This game will be the Nebraska debut of QB Sam Keller who transferred from Arizona State after becoming disgruntled with the lack of play he got there in the 2005 season. He undoubtedly feels that he has a lot to prove and has to be licking his chops after watching game film of the Nevada secondary. With a very strong offensive line and a receiving corps that should have no problem against this opponent, expect Keller to show everyone why he thought that he deserved the starting job for the Sun Devils.

The famed Black Shirt Defense may well not have returned to their dominance of old but the latest version certainly has some of the swagger back. With four of last season?s top five tacklers returning in 2007, this unit will dominate the line of scrimmage creating big problems for Nevada?s offensive line and making things that much more difficult for Nevada?s young quarterback.

The Husker faithful is tired of years of rebuilding promises and HC Callahan is all too aware that much is expected out of this team this season. In the past two years, Callahan has made a point of punishing the early season pushovers in the schedule in an attempt to appease the alumni. In games against Troy and Louisiana Tech, he showed no mercy while running up the score on the big underdogs, beating them by a combined 95 points. While the Wolf Pack does not fall in the same category of team as those two, this could still get ugly early.
The Verdict: Nebraska (-21)


Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Saturday, Sept. 1, 2007 ? 6:45 pm EDT
The Bulldogs need to begin their season with a win against a strong OSU opponent and show that they are deserving of their #13 ranking but there are pitfalls that have will have to avoid for this to happen. By midseason last year, HC Mark Richt settled on then freshman QB Matthew Stafford as his starter and after several rookie missteps, Stafford finished the season with wins over Auburn, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. That was pretty impressive considering that Stafford threw 13 picks last year and UGA?s passing game was simply horrible but that blame is shared by the team?s wideouts. Georgia managed just 12 passing touchdowns in 2006 and only four of those were hauled in by a wide receiver so unless there is some real and immediate improvement at this position, Georgia is going to have a tough time in the SEC East. You have to wonder how the Bulldogs won 9 games last year when their running game averaged just 127.4 yards per game and they turned the ball over 31 times.

On defense, Georgia will have two new starters at each of the defensive end and outside linebacker positions and there are only three retuning starters on the entire defensive squad. OSU?s wide receiving corps dwarfs the players in the Georgia secondary with each player having at least a 3 inch height advantage on the defender and the losses of Paul Oliver to the supplemental draft and Ramarcus Brown to suspension leaves the Dawgs? secondary very thin.

The Cowboys of Oklahoma State do not have the same kind of offensive issues as this week?s opponent as they return seven starters from 2006 and they are absolutely loaded at the wide receiver position. Returning Cowboy QB Bobby Reid led the team with 2,766 yards of total offense and 29 touchdowns while WR Adarius Bowman was responsible for 1,181 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns which matched the entire Georgia team?s output.

Joining Reid in the OSU backfield again this year are Dantrell Savage and Keith Toston who respectively averaged 6.5 and 6.0 yards per carry last season and will be running behind three returning starters on the offensive line. In 2006, Okie State?s offensive balance led to their #7 ranking in scoring and an average of over 200 yards in both rushing and passing. In last year?s Independence Bowl, the Pokes scored 34 points against Alabama which is the most allowed by the Tide in their last 37 games. This is a team that has a total of 15 starters returning from last season and should continue their rise under HC Mike Gundy. An outright win on Saturday is not out of the question.
The Verdict: Oklahoma State (+6.5)
 

THE KOD

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judge

so what your saying is that both teams are going to run up and down the field scoring left and right, kicking field goals, interceptions returned for touchdowns, running touchdowns, passing touchdowns, ..........

is that what has to happen for Okla St to cover ?
 

THE KOD

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In 2006, Okie State?s offensive balance led to their #7 ranking in scoring and an average of over 200 yards in both rushing and passing.
...........................................

200 yds in both rushing and passing should easily equal 4 touchdowns. So there is 28 points for Ok St. Add a few field goals in there. so 34 points

And who can doubt the Bulldogs will come out kicking and clawing between the hedges. And scoring .

It seems simple enough
 

The Judge

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so what your saying is that both teams are going to run up and down the field scoring left and right, kicking field goals, interceptions returned for touchdowns, running touchdowns, passing touchdowns, ..........
Not sure where you got that, Scott.
The Judge said:
Georgia managed just 12 passing touchdowns in 2006 and only four of those were hauled in by a wide receiver so unless there is some real and immediate improvement at this position, Georgia is going to have a tough time in the SEC East. You have to wonder how the Bulldogs won 9 games last year when their running game averaged just 127.4 yards per game and they turned the ball over 31 times.
 

THE KOD

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I owe you a apology for things I have said in the Gen Forum.

I know you are a good capper and I have put money on your plays over the last few years.

I did not care much for your slamming of the old ball coach.

It must have been something else though, and it escapes me at this time.

Sometimes in the general forum I get a little crazy overboard. Not sure where I get that from. Must run in the family .

good luck on your play. If Okla St wins the game , I believe it goes over the total.

Go OKIES
 

The Judge

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Nebraska (-21?) 4x
Oklahoma St. (+6?) 4x
Michigan St. (-23?) 1x
Wyoming (+3) 1x
Wake Forest (+6) 1x
Bowling Green (+14) 1x
South Carolina (-29) 1x
 

The Judge

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Posted Plays
Nebraska (-21?) 4x
Oklahoma St. (+6?) 4x
Michigan St. (-23?) 1x
Wyoming (+3) 1x
Wake Forest (+6) 1x
Bowling Green (+14) 1x
South Carolina (-29) 1x

2007 NCAAF Record
4-3 (+0.4 units)
 
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