New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.
New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.
PLAYOFF RECORD
14-8 +10.96
ML 9-1 +12.3
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 13-5
system picks 3-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-7
total picks 0-2 (65%+)
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PLAYS
Indians +114 2/2.28
I decided to wait a bit, what with all the other action going on for Sunday. I'm glad that I did as, with this line, it just makes the cut as a "system pick." (+112 has a 47.17% break-even mark, and I always round these up so that's 48%, while a +114 has a 46.73% break-even mark, rounded up to a 47 I get the 'cap (57%) minus the BE of 47% gives me a +10, hence a "system pick"). "Picks" are 3-1 so far in the playoffs, hitting Beckett over Lackey, Morales over (wasn't it Kendrick?...game #2?), and Beckett over Sabathia in their game #1; the miss was the Yankees in game #4 with Clemens (oops) against Byrd. The only one of those four that was an underdog was the Rockies in game #2, so I'll be hoping that dog "picks" can stay undefeated. Not much more that I can add about this game. Until about 6 or 7 weeks ago I had Dice-K rated as a top-notch starting pitcher, but it appears that either the scouting reports have really figured him out or, more likely, that the wear and tear of a full MLB schedule has really taken it's toll on the Diceman (apparently in Japan they predominantly work on 5 days rest instead of MLB's norm of 4). Dice had 6 days of rest prior to his playoff start against the Angels, but that didn't seem to help him much as he was pretty bad. For this one he'll be going on a full 9 days of rest, making it very difficult to predict if he will be effective or not. He's already chucked one solid game at Jacob's but it is a true hitter's park, and his era did close the season at 4.40 after being at 3.59 a mere 8 starts earlier, and he allowed 8 homers over his last 40 innings pitched. Sizemore was the only Indian that took him deep in his 2 encounters with them, though 5 Indians had extra-base hits off him, 4 of whom will certainly be in the lineup (Garko,Hafner,Sizemore, and, most likely (in the lineup) Trot Nixon). The Bosox may have the three best bats going in their lineup?Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell?but I think that the balance of the roster is not quite as potent as the secondary bats in the Indians order. As for Westbrook facing these big three, Manny was 2 for 3 against him this season with a double, Lowell went 1 for 3, and Big Papi was out when Jake faced them. Of note, Crisp was 3 for 4 off him with a double. For Jake's career, Manny is actually 8 for 16 against Jake (just the one double and no homers), Ortiz is 0 for 7 with 3 walks and 1 K, and Lowell is 3 for 11 (.273) off him with no extra-base hits. Others of note, Crisp is 6 for 8, Hinske might play as he's 5 for 12 (.417), Varitek is 3 for 6 off him with a double, and Youkilis is 5 for 8 (.625) off him with a double. The only Indian with a homer off him is actually John Olerud, and he's been out of the Bigs for the past 2 seasons. Didn't I say something earlier about not having much more to add about this game?...I guess that I'm still trying to get a handle on whether or not my 57% call on the game is reasonable. I have the bats exactly even for this one, which you can agree with or disagree with, and then adjust my 'cap up or down according to your own take on the sticks. For the pitching, I'm giving a small edge to the Indians as I think that Dice has been pretty consistent in his mediocrity lately and he is more of a fly ball pitcher which isn't a great thing to be in certain hitter's parks such as Jacob's?or even Fenway for that matter, and notice that his numbers at Fenway were pretty bad, even throughout his more productive portions of the season. Jake is more of a ground-ball pitcher so he can survive in pretty much any park, not that he's been too impressive lately; I just think that he can match up with Matsuzaka. For the 2007 season, Westbrook allowed a homer every 11.7 innings pitched while Matsuzaka allowed one every 8.2 innings pitched. And, as mentioned, Dice was lit up fairly consistently during the latter stages of the season; Jake allowed only 3 homers over his last 60 innings pitched, though he did serve one up in his playoff game against the Yankees (Damon). To wrap this up, finally, I've got the bats even, the pitching edge comprises 3% of the 'cap, another 3% is given for home-field advantage, while the additional 1% is given due to the Indians momentum from the game #2 victory. Again, you can play with these numbers as you see the game and try to come to your own conclusions about the probability. I'm fairly comfortable with the call and think that there's value to be had with the Indians as a doggie today.
Just Wakefield-Byrd for Tuesday. Sounds like an over to me. Ump should be Emmel if they keep the rotation. He's even, though 36-24 on the total over the past 2 seasons. One at a time?one at a time?great thing about this part of the playoffs?I don't have 15 games to 'cap each and every freakin' day. Don't know how I survived that.
See you tomorrow(today).
GL
