ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
- Thread starter EXTRAPOLATER
- Start date
hey, baby johnson...
Bosox were +400 before game #5. I gave it a quick once-over in my mind, believing that they would take game #5 hence dropping it in half, but I still am having a hard time believing that this Indians club will drop 3 straight in this series. If you saw one of my earlier posts, where I discussed the series play (between games #4 and #5) then you would have seen where I argued that something better than a +427 was needed, then, for there to be any value (it looked like playing the 3 Bosox moneylines would pay about that, making them the better way to go). Of course, at the time I was assuming a -140 moneyline for game #6 and, right now, the best that I see is Boston -127 for game #6.
At the time I also assumed a -150 for the 'Sox in game #7, but now I'd say that it might be as cheap as a -140 or maybe even a -135 for Dice-K at home vs Westbrook.
To assess the +180 series price, you've got to compare it to a 2-teamer with the 'Sox for both games.
Here's how I calculate such things:
#6 -127
#7 -137?
(100/127+1) X (100/137+1) -1 = 2.09207...
which is a +209 line.
That is actually better than the +180 on the series price so the moneylines look to be the better way to go.
Just in case game #7 IS as high as -150 (maybe, as 'Sox will have then taken two straight AND I think that Dice-K is being overvalued by the books): (using the same formula but inserting 150 where the 137 is): +197
Still looks like the moneylines is the better way to go.
Sounds like you have more faith in the 'Sox then I do, right now. I might be tempted to try Westbrook in game #7, though at less than +140 (a 42% break-even mark; 100/240%=41.666, and I always round those up so as not to produce any "false" value) I think I'd just spectate.
Matsuzaka has shown nothing, now, for weeks and weeks, even with the 9 day (I think it was 9...was at least 8) layoff for him between his last starts he showed really nothing in game #3. I'm expecting that my 'cap for game #7, if it happens, will be VERY close to a 50% call (which I actually don't allow; maybe 51 to 53% on the Bosox as they will, after all, be at home and riding a 2-game winning streak). At 47-49% for the Indians there would be a bit of value at the +140 that I mentioned. Not much, mind you, for such a low call, anyway.
I'm still considering the under for this game #6, but I'm going to look into a few more things to hopefully give me a final 'cap that I'm comfortable with and willing to post.
Should be up within an hour or two.
Hope that helps.
Bosox were +400 before game #5. I gave it a quick once-over in my mind, believing that they would take game #5 hence dropping it in half, but I still am having a hard time believing that this Indians club will drop 3 straight in this series. If you saw one of my earlier posts, where I discussed the series play (between games #4 and #5) then you would have seen where I argued that something better than a +427 was needed, then, for there to be any value (it looked like playing the 3 Bosox moneylines would pay about that, making them the better way to go). Of course, at the time I was assuming a -140 moneyline for game #6 and, right now, the best that I see is Boston -127 for game #6.
At the time I also assumed a -150 for the 'Sox in game #7, but now I'd say that it might be as cheap as a -140 or maybe even a -135 for Dice-K at home vs Westbrook.
To assess the +180 series price, you've got to compare it to a 2-teamer with the 'Sox for both games.
Here's how I calculate such things:
#6 -127
#7 -137?
(100/127+1) X (100/137+1) -1 = 2.09207...
which is a +209 line.
That is actually better than the +180 on the series price so the moneylines look to be the better way to go.
Just in case game #7 IS as high as -150 (maybe, as 'Sox will have then taken two straight AND I think that Dice-K is being overvalued by the books): (using the same formula but inserting 150 where the 137 is): +197
Still looks like the moneylines is the better way to go.
Sounds like you have more faith in the 'Sox then I do, right now. I might be tempted to try Westbrook in game #7, though at less than +140 (a 42% break-even mark; 100/240%=41.666, and I always round those up so as not to produce any "false" value) I think I'd just spectate.
Matsuzaka has shown nothing, now, for weeks and weeks, even with the 9 day (I think it was 9...was at least 8) layoff for him between his last starts he showed really nothing in game #3. I'm expecting that my 'cap for game #7, if it happens, will be VERY close to a 50% call (which I actually don't allow; maybe 51 to 53% on the Bosox as they will, after all, be at home and riding a 2-game winning streak). At 47-49% for the Indians there would be a bit of value at the +140 that I mentioned. Not much, mind you, for such a low call, anyway.
I'm still considering the under for this game #6, but I'm going to look into a few more things to hopefully give me a final 'cap that I'm comfortable with and willing to post.
Should be up within an hour or two.
Hope that helps.
so far in these playoffs...
so far in these playoffs...
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PLAYOFF RECORD
16-8 +16.24
ML 11-1 +17.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 16-6 (72.7%...system is having no trouble in these playoffs?sweetness)
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) (2 of the 4 were doggies)
system totals 6-8
total picks 0-2 (65%+)
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The World Series could be a bit tougher. I won't go against Beckett and he'll be the game #1 starter against Francis if that matchup materializes. A rock-solid effort by Schilling on Saturday would also make me hesitant to go against him for a likely game #2 matchup with Jimenez; still might try that one. Dice-K or Wakefield would entice me to try the Rockies, no matter who they'd be tossing.
If it's the Indians, I'll likely try the Rockies straight through. Might be a bit hesitant in game #2 if the Rockies don't produce in game #1 at Jacobs.
At Coors, the Rockies would appear to be gold and the only game that I might keep off of would be if Beckett starts there.
Of course, as things unfold, my opinions might change. I also need to see just what my system is calling, too, before making any plays; it's done good by me, so far in these playoffs, so I see no reason to buck it now.
Time to post game #6 and then turn my attention to football.
so far in these playoffs...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLAYOFF RECORD
16-8 +16.24
ML 11-1 +17.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 16-6 (72.7%...system is having no trouble in these playoffs?sweetness)
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) (2 of the 4 were doggies)
system totals 6-8
total picks 0-2 (65%+)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The World Series could be a bit tougher. I won't go against Beckett and he'll be the game #1 starter against Francis if that matchup materializes. A rock-solid effort by Schilling on Saturday would also make me hesitant to go against him for a likely game #2 matchup with Jimenez; still might try that one. Dice-K or Wakefield would entice me to try the Rockies, no matter who they'd be tossing.
If it's the Indians, I'll likely try the Rockies straight through. Might be a bit hesitant in game #2 if the Rockies don't produce in game #1 at Jacobs.
At Coors, the Rockies would appear to be gold and the only game that I might keep off of would be if Beckett starts there.
Of course, as things unfold, my opinions might change. I also need to see just what my system is calling, too, before making any plays; it's done good by me, so far in these playoffs, so I see no reason to buck it now.
Time to post game #6 and then turn my attention to football.
Indians lead series 3-2
Indians lead series 3-2
Game #6
Carmona @ Schilling
Red Sox 56% (-127)even
under 9.5 54% (-117)even --ump DeMuth is even/slightly over (more overs than unders in 4 of the past 5 years and this year had a K% under 62 for the season; call was under the 9.5 at 57% before a 3% pena for DeMuth; really not much value here regardless)
I'm giving a small edge to the Indians pitching. A slightly larger edge is given to the Red Sox hitting. The determined edge is primarily home-field advantage and a very small momentum factor.
Carmona faced the Bosox twice last season, both times for very short relief appearances at Fenway Park, and he took the loss each time despite only lasting for an inning combined between the two games. 2006 was a bust for Carmona, as his 1-10 record and 5.42 era will attest. In one meeting with the 'Sox this season, at home on July 25th, he outduelled Josh Beckett and picked up the W in a 1-0 game, allowing 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. That game concluded a sensational run by Fausto where he won 5 straight decisions, looking real good in the process. Carmona tossed 9 brilliant innings against the Yankees in game #2 of their series at home. In game #2 of their current series, on the road, Carmona was not very effective as he allowed 4 hits, 5 walks, and 4 earned runs over his 4 innings pitched. For the regular season, Carmona's era was better on the road (2.80 vs 3.32 at home) though his whip and BAA were slightly higher on the road. He went 9-4 in 16 road starts this season. Indians have great middle relief but closer Borowski isn't the greatest.
Schilling faced the Indians once during the regular season, at home on May 28th, and got the W in a 5-3 decision over Cliff Lee; Curt threw 7 solid innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 earned run while walking none and striking out 10. He's 2-2 with a 3.79 era in his career against the Indians during the regular season. At home this season, Schilling was 4-3 with a 4.06 era. He was pretty solid from the middle part of August to the end of the regular season, though the Bosox lost 4 of his last 5 regular season starts, with Curt going 1-3 over that time. Schilling looked great in game #3 of the Angels series, shutting them down for 7 innings. Schilling was horrible in game #2 of their current series, allowing 9 hits, including 2 homers (Peralta & Sizemore), and 5 earnies over 4.2 innings pitched. Bosox pen is, arguably, the best left in these playoffs; Papelbon is a solid closer.
Indians .760 OPS vs R during the regular season
Red Sox .808 OPS vs R RS
Indians .749 OPS on the road RS
Red Sox .844 OPS at home RS
Indians hitting .284 vs R last 10 games
Red Sox hitting .257 vs R last 10 games
(for a change, these "last 10 games" numbers are up-to-date)
The following 4 numbers are also up-to-date, and might keep me off the under:
--Indians .841 OPS this postseason in 9 games
--Red Sox .847 OPS this postseason in 8 games
--Indians .758 OPS this series
--Red Sox .838 OPS this series
Both clubs hit well in their first series'.
The discrepancy in the current series is due to the Bosox having 5 more walks (21 to 16) and they're also hitting 27 points higher (.285 to .258). The power numbers for this series are quite similar, with both clubs having 7 homers while the Indians have 10 doubles and the Bosox have 9 doubles and a triple.
Also of note is the Indians striking out 54 times while the Bosox hitters have only fanned 31 times.
Indians 29-28 on the road to R RS
Red Sox 39-22 at home to R RS
This is a very tough game to call. Neither starting pitcher performed anywhere near their capabilities in the game #2 meeting. It's difficult to say which of these starters will make the necessary adjustments to improve on their horrible performances; Schilling has more experience but Carmona, I'd say, has the better stuff at this stage of their careers; I was thinking that Schilling might have MORE trouble making the proper adjustments as his trouble in game #2 was that he could get hardly anything past the Indians hitters?his trouble was that he was consistently being beaten on his fastball; Carmona, on the other hand, had difficulty locating his stuff and really wasn't finding the strike zone on a consistent bases?I was thinking that, like Sabathia in his second go against the Bosox, Carmona just simply needs to be more aggressive and go right after hitters?maybe an adjustment that is easier than trying to fool the hitters that you weren't fooling just a few days earlier; I've decided that that angle is, perhaps, a mistake for a couple of reasons; first, Sabathia got his second start at home, making it much easier to relax and just pitch his game; Carmona will, again, be starting on the road and the raucious Red Sox crowd may very well get under his skin, again causing him to lose some of his control; secondly, Sabathia walked only 1.4 batters per 9 innings pitched during the regular season so the control problems seemed very out of character for him and something that he would likely improve on?Carmona walked just over 3.5 batters per 9 innings pitched during the regular season so his control, this season, was not as good as C.C.s. Bottom line is that I am still having difficulty determining who will make the necessary adjustments to improve upon their dreadful performance. That preceeding convoluted argument probably doesn't help too much. How about other angles?I can't give too much credit to the Bosox for their newfound momentum, as it looked as if the Bosox had some heading into game #2 while it appeared as if the Indians had some heading into game #5. Both of today's starters were great in the previous series, but neither carried that over into this current series. Schilling didn't walk a batter in game #2 (3 K's) but was easily hittable. Carmona's troubles were more a matter of not being able to find the strike zone. If you have an idea of which of those two problems is more easily correctable then you've got a better read on this match than I have, and you'd then probably have a good idea of who should win. If I had to play a side then I'd likely try the Indians, despite the system call; a good reason for me to simply pass. The following score prediction is simply a reflection of the system call, though I have very little confidence in it for this game #6. Wishy-freakin'-Washy?can't be helped?this game is a bitch.
Predicted score: Red Sox 5 Indians 4
Plays pending.
GL
Indians lead series 3-2
Game #6
Carmona @ Schilling
Red Sox 56% (-127)even
under 9.5 54% (-117)even --ump DeMuth is even/slightly over (more overs than unders in 4 of the past 5 years and this year had a K% under 62 for the season; call was under the 9.5 at 57% before a 3% pena for DeMuth; really not much value here regardless)
I'm giving a small edge to the Indians pitching. A slightly larger edge is given to the Red Sox hitting. The determined edge is primarily home-field advantage and a very small momentum factor.
Carmona faced the Bosox twice last season, both times for very short relief appearances at Fenway Park, and he took the loss each time despite only lasting for an inning combined between the two games. 2006 was a bust for Carmona, as his 1-10 record and 5.42 era will attest. In one meeting with the 'Sox this season, at home on July 25th, he outduelled Josh Beckett and picked up the W in a 1-0 game, allowing 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. That game concluded a sensational run by Fausto where he won 5 straight decisions, looking real good in the process. Carmona tossed 9 brilliant innings against the Yankees in game #2 of their series at home. In game #2 of their current series, on the road, Carmona was not very effective as he allowed 4 hits, 5 walks, and 4 earned runs over his 4 innings pitched. For the regular season, Carmona's era was better on the road (2.80 vs 3.32 at home) though his whip and BAA were slightly higher on the road. He went 9-4 in 16 road starts this season. Indians have great middle relief but closer Borowski isn't the greatest.
Schilling faced the Indians once during the regular season, at home on May 28th, and got the W in a 5-3 decision over Cliff Lee; Curt threw 7 solid innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 earned run while walking none and striking out 10. He's 2-2 with a 3.79 era in his career against the Indians during the regular season. At home this season, Schilling was 4-3 with a 4.06 era. He was pretty solid from the middle part of August to the end of the regular season, though the Bosox lost 4 of his last 5 regular season starts, with Curt going 1-3 over that time. Schilling looked great in game #3 of the Angels series, shutting them down for 7 innings. Schilling was horrible in game #2 of their current series, allowing 9 hits, including 2 homers (Peralta & Sizemore), and 5 earnies over 4.2 innings pitched. Bosox pen is, arguably, the best left in these playoffs; Papelbon is a solid closer.
Indians .760 OPS vs R during the regular season
Red Sox .808 OPS vs R RS
Indians .749 OPS on the road RS
Red Sox .844 OPS at home RS
Indians hitting .284 vs R last 10 games
Red Sox hitting .257 vs R last 10 games
(for a change, these "last 10 games" numbers are up-to-date)
The following 4 numbers are also up-to-date, and might keep me off the under:
--Indians .841 OPS this postseason in 9 games
--Red Sox .847 OPS this postseason in 8 games
--Indians .758 OPS this series
--Red Sox .838 OPS this series
Both clubs hit well in their first series'.
The discrepancy in the current series is due to the Bosox having 5 more walks (21 to 16) and they're also hitting 27 points higher (.285 to .258). The power numbers for this series are quite similar, with both clubs having 7 homers while the Indians have 10 doubles and the Bosox have 9 doubles and a triple.
Also of note is the Indians striking out 54 times while the Bosox hitters have only fanned 31 times.
Indians 29-28 on the road to R RS
Red Sox 39-22 at home to R RS
This is a very tough game to call. Neither starting pitcher performed anywhere near their capabilities in the game #2 meeting. It's difficult to say which of these starters will make the necessary adjustments to improve on their horrible performances; Schilling has more experience but Carmona, I'd say, has the better stuff at this stage of their careers; I was thinking that Schilling might have MORE trouble making the proper adjustments as his trouble in game #2 was that he could get hardly anything past the Indians hitters?his trouble was that he was consistently being beaten on his fastball; Carmona, on the other hand, had difficulty locating his stuff and really wasn't finding the strike zone on a consistent bases?I was thinking that, like Sabathia in his second go against the Bosox, Carmona just simply needs to be more aggressive and go right after hitters?maybe an adjustment that is easier than trying to fool the hitters that you weren't fooling just a few days earlier; I've decided that that angle is, perhaps, a mistake for a couple of reasons; first, Sabathia got his second start at home, making it much easier to relax and just pitch his game; Carmona will, again, be starting on the road and the raucious Red Sox crowd may very well get under his skin, again causing him to lose some of his control; secondly, Sabathia walked only 1.4 batters per 9 innings pitched during the regular season so the control problems seemed very out of character for him and something that he would likely improve on?Carmona walked just over 3.5 batters per 9 innings pitched during the regular season so his control, this season, was not as good as C.C.s. Bottom line is that I am still having difficulty determining who will make the necessary adjustments to improve upon their dreadful performance. That preceeding convoluted argument probably doesn't help too much. How about other angles?I can't give too much credit to the Bosox for their newfound momentum, as it looked as if the Bosox had some heading into game #2 while it appeared as if the Indians had some heading into game #5. Both of today's starters were great in the previous series, but neither carried that over into this current series. Schilling didn't walk a batter in game #2 (3 K's) but was easily hittable. Carmona's troubles were more a matter of not being able to find the strike zone. If you have an idea of which of those two problems is more easily correctable then you've got a better read on this match than I have, and you'd then probably have a good idea of who should win. If I had to play a side then I'd likely try the Indians, despite the system call; a good reason for me to simply pass. The following score prediction is simply a reflection of the system call, though I have very little confidence in it for this game #6. Wishy-freakin'-Washy?can't be helped?this game is a bitch.
Predicted score: Red Sox 5 Indians 4
Plays pending.
GL
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You probably have a winner on your hands because I've got to go against you, the wiser man. I think Schilling is a washed up redass. I was in attendance when the Royals lit him up on Opening Day to start the 07' season. 89 mph straight balls vs. solid bats. Carmona is going to step it up- he's too good not to improve on his average last outing. Look @ his #'s over the last 6weeks. Not the BoSox year. -weak starters. It's Beckett and garbage. I would just love to see the visitors celebrating after a Schilling debacle. I am guilty of letting my disdain of The Schill influence my selection. I haven't been real impressed w/Cle bats as of late, but BoSox haven't looked much better. Cle 1-9 has legit threats. Sox 7-9 is a joke. Crisp confidence is so low, he can't even lay down a sac bunt. Hopefully Francona will continue w/the same lineup. I will wait to make a play- $$ will be on BoSox, and if Francona wakes up and switches up lower 3rd of order I may re-evaluate. I expect no changes though.
just hangin' around
just hangin' around
I still haven't done squat on this game.
Lean is still the under.
I don't think I could play the Indians in this one. I said earlier that I would play them if I had to play a side, but I think, now, that I agree more with the system call...decent chance the Bosox take it.
Got some football and hockey today, anyways, so it would be nice to watch a ballgame which I don't have anything at stake on. I haven't played every game in the playoffs but most of them. Not like I'm doing so bad, I just don't think I'll push my luck today.
Was looking at some props and stuff...trying to maybe find something worth trying. Ortiz total bases over Victor Martinez (-120) or something. I don't know about that one; Vic had 3 hits in game #2. Manny total (tool) bases over Hafner at -135 looks a bit better; decent chance that Manny will pop one, I figure, or at least bang one of the green monster (single?
) or something...the man is a terror at the plate in these playoffs. That's part of the reason that Ortiz TB's is worth considering--they likely don't pitch around him to get to Manny. who knows, actually...Wedge may not be the brightest bulb on the tree. I was even thinking something like no run in the 8th inning might be good, as things could still be tight and it shouldn't be Borowski for that--should be a solid Indians middle-man--while the Bosox likely use Okajima, Timlin, Delcaman (who's been bad) or maybe even Papelbon for more than an inning; -135 there so passorama. Lowell total bases over Garko at -120 could cash, but Mikey didn't do much vs Carmona first go round, and they've never met in the regular season.
Think I'll just watch.
I've got a pretty intense 'cap already done for game #7 if necessary.
I think I'll be backing the Rockies so I'm not sure who to root for tonight. I won't go against Beckett so I suppose I like the Rox chances better against the Injuns. Carmona and/or Schilling toss a beauty tonight and I think I'll be anxiously awaiting Series game #2 to play under, if it's Jimenez vs Curt or Fausto. There's bound to be some decent umps for the unders during the Series, 'cause there sure aren't any (Gorman maybe) in this series. 'Sox win today and my play for game #7 is probably the over...should be ump Marsh and he'll suit it just fine. Have a look at Westbrook's numbers at Fenway--in limited action, mind you. Dice's era at Fenway was almost 5.00 this year and he's been sludge in the playoffs. Hoping for no more than a 10. Expecting no more than a 10; books are nice to Dice.
4 more hours.
I can't wait.
just hangin' around
I still haven't done squat on this game.
Lean is still the under.
I don't think I could play the Indians in this one. I said earlier that I would play them if I had to play a side, but I think, now, that I agree more with the system call...decent chance the Bosox take it.
Got some football and hockey today, anyways, so it would be nice to watch a ballgame which I don't have anything at stake on. I haven't played every game in the playoffs but most of them. Not like I'm doing so bad, I just don't think I'll push my luck today.
Was looking at some props and stuff...trying to maybe find something worth trying. Ortiz total bases over Victor Martinez (-120) or something. I don't know about that one; Vic had 3 hits in game #2. Manny total (tool) bases over Hafner at -135 looks a bit better; decent chance that Manny will pop one, I figure, or at least bang one of the green monster (single?
) or something...the man is a terror at the plate in these playoffs. That's part of the reason that Ortiz TB's is worth considering--they likely don't pitch around him to get to Manny. who knows, actually...Wedge may not be the brightest bulb on the tree. I was even thinking something like no run in the 8th inning might be good, as things could still be tight and it shouldn't be Borowski for that--should be a solid Indians middle-man--while the Bosox likely use Okajima, Timlin, Delcaman (who's been bad) or maybe even Papelbon for more than an inning; -135 there so passorama. Lowell total bases over Garko at -120 could cash, but Mikey didn't do much vs Carmona first go round, and they've never met in the regular season.Think I'll just watch.
I've got a pretty intense 'cap already done for game #7 if necessary.
I think I'll be backing the Rockies so I'm not sure who to root for tonight. I won't go against Beckett so I suppose I like the Rox chances better against the Injuns. Carmona and/or Schilling toss a beauty tonight and I think I'll be anxiously awaiting Series game #2 to play under, if it's Jimenez vs Curt or Fausto. There's bound to be some decent umps for the unders during the Series, 'cause there sure aren't any (Gorman maybe) in this series. 'Sox win today and my play for game #7 is probably the over...should be ump Marsh and he'll suit it just fine. Have a look at Westbrook's numbers at Fenway--in limited action, mind you. Dice's era at Fenway was almost 5.00 this year and he's been sludge in the playoffs. Hoping for no more than a 10. Expecting no more than a 10; books are nice to Dice.
4 more hours.
I can't wait.
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EXTRAPOLATER, i'm laying off too. i think i can enjoy the game w/o betting it tonight
also, i forgot to reply to your last email (reading your post reminded me) and i lost it :shrug:
i put on hold because of the length but lost it in the masses. i guess it got deleted somehow.
anyway, resend and i'll reply when i get a chance. sometime monday.
thanks - good stuff as usual!
jack@madjacksports.com
also, i forgot to reply to your last email (reading your post reminded me) and i lost it :shrug:
i put on hold because of the length but lost it in the masses. i guess it got deleted somehow.
anyway, resend and i'll reply when i get a chance. sometime monday.
thanks - good stuff as usual!
jack@madjacksports.com
Jack...resent.
Made it a bit longer but that's what you get for deleting it.
Hope it's interesting, at least.
Made it a bit longer but that's what you get for deleting it.
Hope it's interesting, at least.
series tied 3-3
series tied 3-3
Game #7
Westbrook @ Matsuzaka
Red Sox 59% (-158)-3
over 10 67% (-104)+16 --Marsh is a good over-ump
I have the pitching even for this contest. Giving the Bosox a medium-to-large edge at the plate (6% on the number, which is a hefty 12-point edge as, of course, 56-44 is 12). Normal home-field bonus and road penalty given for the two teams.
Westbrook faced the Bosox once during the regular season and was hit pretty hard at home on July 23rd, taking the loss in the 6-2 'Sox win. In 6 career RS starts against the Red Sox he's 3-2 with a 4.81 era, the 'Sox hitting a whopping .364 against him. He's made 2 career starts at Fenway; one in '06 where he somehow got the W despite allowing 15 hits and 6 earnies over his 8 innings (Bosox hit .429 that day); his other Fenway start came way back in 2001 and he allowed 6 hits and 2 earnies over 2.2 innings pitched that day, so his Fenway numbers are quite atrocious (8.44 era, .447 baa). On the road this season he went 2-4 with a 4.78 era in 11 starts. He looked pretty sharp through August but had a rougher go throughout September. He was smoked by the Yankees in game #3 of that series and took the loss in the 8-4 game. He got the W in the 4-2 Indians win in game #3, doing what he does best by getting ahead in counts and inducing a lot of ground balls; Jake pitched well but it can be argued that he was rather lucky to only give up the 2 runs?he did allow 7 hits and 3 walks over his 6.2 innings pitched?some timely double plays and a bullpen bailout in the 7th really helped his cause. Indians middle relief is solid though I still have little regard for closer Borowski.
Dice-K faced the Indians twice during the regular season, first getting pounded at home by them on May 30th, taking the loss in the 8-4 Indians win, then later pitching a great 7 shutout innings at Jacob's on July 24th, picking up the W in a 1-0 win over Sabathia. It's not surprising that Dice's better game came on the road as his era was almost a full point lower on the road (4.86 home) and his other numbers were a bit better too; save for that win-loss record, where he went 8-4 at Fenway and only 7-8 on the road (getting much less run-support away from Fenway, of course). From the second half of August to the end of the regular season Matsuzaka was generally consistently bad. His first playoff start, against the Angels, was likewise horrible as he posted a 5.79 era and .333 BAA after surviving for less than 5 complete. In game #3 of this series he again lasted only 4.2 innings, this time giving up all 4 of Cleveland's runs on 6 hits (1 homer?Lofton) and 2 walks; Dice did put up zeros in the 1st, 3rd and 4th, while striking out 6, so at times he did have success. Red Sox bullpen has several reliable arms and closer Papelbon is rock-solid.
Indians .760 OPS vs R during the regular season
Red Sox .808 OPS vs R RS
Indians .749 OPS on the road RS
Red Sox .844 OPS at home RS
Indians hitting .279 vs R last 10 games
Red Sox hitting .262 vs R last 10 games
(apparently including Saturday's game; these are from discovers.corn and don't seem to match what follows, which is from the more reliable mlb.com)
The following 2 numbers exclude Saturday's game (MLB.com delay):
--Indians .841 OPS this postseason in 9 games
--Red Sox .847 OPS this postseason in 8 games
The next 2 numbers INCLUDE Saturday's game:
--Indians .727 OPS this series
--Red Sox .870 OPS this series
Both clubs hit well in their first series'.
The discrepancy in the current series is due to the Bosox having 13 more walks (29 to 16) while also hitting 51 points higher (.300 to .249). The power numbers for this series were quite similar before Saturday's game with both clubs having 7 homers while the Indians had 10 doubles and the Bosox had 9 doubles and a triple. Red Sox added 3 doubles and a homer in game #6 while the Indians added a triple and a home run.
Up-to-date and also of note is the Indians striking out 59 times while the Bosox hitters have only fanned 36 times.
Indians 29-28 on the road to R RS
Red Sox 39-22 at home to R RS
In the third and fourth innings yesterday I fell in love with the over for this game #7. As the game went on I started to like it less and less as the Indians did virtually nothing at the plate including ZERO base on balls for the game and a 6-up 6-down against the 'Sox relievers in the 8th and 9th. The over still looks worth playing but I was looking at a call over 70% if the Indians had shown anything. Still, Dice-K's era at Fenway was 4.86 this season and it finished the season (4.40) almost a full point higher than it was 9 starts earlier (3.59); he has been trash in the playoffs and for the better part of the past couple of months. I still have the pitching rated even for this one as Westbrook has been brutal at Fenway in just a couple of appearances and he probably won't have quite the same luck that he had in game #3 (see above). Umpire Marsh can safely be deemed an "over-ump" as has consistently posted a very low K% (6 of the past 7 years at under 62%). The 'Sox had 8 walks in game #6 and will probably be patient against Westbrook today. Dice has 5 BB's in these playoffs in only 9.1 IP while on the season he averaged 3.5 walks per 9 innings pitched, and one tactic that the Indians would be smart to employ is to be more patient as they had no walks in game #6 but they should witness a smaller K-zone over the first few innings and would be smart to try and take advantage of it. Lofton's homer was the lone extra-base hit off of Dice in game #3 but he had 3 games over his final 10 regular season starts where he gave up 2 homers; he actually only allowed 8 at Fenway all season (92.2 IP) while allowing 17 on the road (112 IP). My call on the side might be 3-4 points low, if anything, as I'm not a big Dice fan so I may be undervaluing him, but, I've noticed that the books seems to be OVERvaluing him so it's no shock that my call suggests that the Bosox are overvalued today at present lines.
Indians got 2 on Saturday despite doing virtually nothing at the plate. If they can at least pretend to try then they should double that and maybe even triple it. Just about everybody in the 'Sox lineup was productive on Saturday, save for maybe the big boppers Ortiz and Ramirez (and Varitek). Bosox should treat Westbrook unkindly, if they can stay out of the double-plays this time round (had 3 rally-killing double-plays in game #3 while Jake was on the hill). Bosox should reach at least 4 even if Jake tosses a good game; 5-7 seems more likely for the 'Sox with maybe an 8 having similar probability as the 4. I think that Westbrook can be had in this game I'm just not sure if the Diceman is going to miraculously turn around his recent track record of consistent mediocrity. I have the Bosox team total at +11 while the Indians are only at +5; means that I've got the Bosox bats to most likely be able to hit Jake while the chance of the Indians having their way with Dice is decent but less likely. I may be repeating myself at this point in time but I'm still trying to get a handle on whether or not I should tackle this game. If Dice fails then I don't know if Lester would be the answer and I think that using Beckett is a longshot, certainly before about the 6th inning, anyway. If Jake fails then I guess the Indians might use Byrd, unless they want to try to survive the whole game with their middle-men. For some reason this stuff seemed easier when there were 4 series going; I've begun to overanalyze things even more than I normally do. Indians cash a few in the 6th through 8th to make things a little more interesting, but Papelbon will close the door in the 9th as the Bosox survive only a slightly better start from their 100-million dollar man.
Predicted score: Red Sox 7 Indians 5
Plays pending.
GL
series tied 3-3
Game #7
Westbrook @ Matsuzaka
Red Sox 59% (-158)-3
over 10 67% (-104)+16 --Marsh is a good over-ump
I have the pitching even for this contest. Giving the Bosox a medium-to-large edge at the plate (6% on the number, which is a hefty 12-point edge as, of course, 56-44 is 12). Normal home-field bonus and road penalty given for the two teams.
Westbrook faced the Bosox once during the regular season and was hit pretty hard at home on July 23rd, taking the loss in the 6-2 'Sox win. In 6 career RS starts against the Red Sox he's 3-2 with a 4.81 era, the 'Sox hitting a whopping .364 against him. He's made 2 career starts at Fenway; one in '06 where he somehow got the W despite allowing 15 hits and 6 earnies over his 8 innings (Bosox hit .429 that day); his other Fenway start came way back in 2001 and he allowed 6 hits and 2 earnies over 2.2 innings pitched that day, so his Fenway numbers are quite atrocious (8.44 era, .447 baa). On the road this season he went 2-4 with a 4.78 era in 11 starts. He looked pretty sharp through August but had a rougher go throughout September. He was smoked by the Yankees in game #3 of that series and took the loss in the 8-4 game. He got the W in the 4-2 Indians win in game #3, doing what he does best by getting ahead in counts and inducing a lot of ground balls; Jake pitched well but it can be argued that he was rather lucky to only give up the 2 runs?he did allow 7 hits and 3 walks over his 6.2 innings pitched?some timely double plays and a bullpen bailout in the 7th really helped his cause. Indians middle relief is solid though I still have little regard for closer Borowski.
Dice-K faced the Indians twice during the regular season, first getting pounded at home by them on May 30th, taking the loss in the 8-4 Indians win, then later pitching a great 7 shutout innings at Jacob's on July 24th, picking up the W in a 1-0 win over Sabathia. It's not surprising that Dice's better game came on the road as his era was almost a full point lower on the road (4.86 home) and his other numbers were a bit better too; save for that win-loss record, where he went 8-4 at Fenway and only 7-8 on the road (getting much less run-support away from Fenway, of course). From the second half of August to the end of the regular season Matsuzaka was generally consistently bad. His first playoff start, against the Angels, was likewise horrible as he posted a 5.79 era and .333 BAA after surviving for less than 5 complete. In game #3 of this series he again lasted only 4.2 innings, this time giving up all 4 of Cleveland's runs on 6 hits (1 homer?Lofton) and 2 walks; Dice did put up zeros in the 1st, 3rd and 4th, while striking out 6, so at times he did have success. Red Sox bullpen has several reliable arms and closer Papelbon is rock-solid.
Indians .760 OPS vs R during the regular season
Red Sox .808 OPS vs R RS
Indians .749 OPS on the road RS
Red Sox .844 OPS at home RS
Indians hitting .279 vs R last 10 games
Red Sox hitting .262 vs R last 10 games
(apparently including Saturday's game; these are from discovers.corn and don't seem to match what follows, which is from the more reliable mlb.com)
The following 2 numbers exclude Saturday's game (MLB.com delay):
--Indians .841 OPS this postseason in 9 games
--Red Sox .847 OPS this postseason in 8 games
The next 2 numbers INCLUDE Saturday's game:
--Indians .727 OPS this series
--Red Sox .870 OPS this series
Both clubs hit well in their first series'.
The discrepancy in the current series is due to the Bosox having 13 more walks (29 to 16) while also hitting 51 points higher (.300 to .249). The power numbers for this series were quite similar before Saturday's game with both clubs having 7 homers while the Indians had 10 doubles and the Bosox had 9 doubles and a triple. Red Sox added 3 doubles and a homer in game #6 while the Indians added a triple and a home run.
Up-to-date and also of note is the Indians striking out 59 times while the Bosox hitters have only fanned 36 times.
Indians 29-28 on the road to R RS
Red Sox 39-22 at home to R RS
In the third and fourth innings yesterday I fell in love with the over for this game #7. As the game went on I started to like it less and less as the Indians did virtually nothing at the plate including ZERO base on balls for the game and a 6-up 6-down against the 'Sox relievers in the 8th and 9th. The over still looks worth playing but I was looking at a call over 70% if the Indians had shown anything. Still, Dice-K's era at Fenway was 4.86 this season and it finished the season (4.40) almost a full point higher than it was 9 starts earlier (3.59); he has been trash in the playoffs and for the better part of the past couple of months. I still have the pitching rated even for this one as Westbrook has been brutal at Fenway in just a couple of appearances and he probably won't have quite the same luck that he had in game #3 (see above). Umpire Marsh can safely be deemed an "over-ump" as has consistently posted a very low K% (6 of the past 7 years at under 62%). The 'Sox had 8 walks in game #6 and will probably be patient against Westbrook today. Dice has 5 BB's in these playoffs in only 9.1 IP while on the season he averaged 3.5 walks per 9 innings pitched, and one tactic that the Indians would be smart to employ is to be more patient as they had no walks in game #6 but they should witness a smaller K-zone over the first few innings and would be smart to try and take advantage of it. Lofton's homer was the lone extra-base hit off of Dice in game #3 but he had 3 games over his final 10 regular season starts where he gave up 2 homers; he actually only allowed 8 at Fenway all season (92.2 IP) while allowing 17 on the road (112 IP). My call on the side might be 3-4 points low, if anything, as I'm not a big Dice fan so I may be undervaluing him, but, I've noticed that the books seems to be OVERvaluing him so it's no shock that my call suggests that the Bosox are overvalued today at present lines.
Indians got 2 on Saturday despite doing virtually nothing at the plate. If they can at least pretend to try then they should double that and maybe even triple it. Just about everybody in the 'Sox lineup was productive on Saturday, save for maybe the big boppers Ortiz and Ramirez (and Varitek). Bosox should treat Westbrook unkindly, if they can stay out of the double-plays this time round (had 3 rally-killing double-plays in game #3 while Jake was on the hill). Bosox should reach at least 4 even if Jake tosses a good game; 5-7 seems more likely for the 'Sox with maybe an 8 having similar probability as the 4. I think that Westbrook can be had in this game I'm just not sure if the Diceman is going to miraculously turn around his recent track record of consistent mediocrity. I have the Bosox team total at +11 while the Indians are only at +5; means that I've got the Bosox bats to most likely be able to hit Jake while the chance of the Indians having their way with Dice is decent but less likely. I may be repeating myself at this point in time but I'm still trying to get a handle on whether or not I should tackle this game. If Dice fails then I don't know if Lester would be the answer and I think that using Beckett is a longshot, certainly before about the 6th inning, anyway. If Jake fails then I guess the Indians might use Byrd, unless they want to try to survive the whole game with their middle-men. For some reason this stuff seemed easier when there were 4 series going; I've begun to overanalyze things even more than I normally do. Indians cash a few in the 6th through 8th to make things a little more interesting, but Papelbon will close the door in the 9th as the Bosox survive only a slightly better start from their 100-million dollar man.
Predicted score: Red Sox 7 Indians 5
Plays pending.
GL
...and all the children are insane...waiting for the summer rain...yeaaaahhh...
...and all the children are insane...waiting for the summer rain...yeaaaahhh...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLAYOFF RECORD
16-8 +16.24
ML 11-1 +17.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 17-6 (73.9%...system is having no trouble in these playoffs?sweetness)
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) (2 of the 4 were doggies)
system totals 6-9
total picks 0-2 (65%+) due to hit one of these puppies; have one today
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Can't wait for the Series.
A hot Bosox team could make it interesting.
I think that the Rox would take down the Injuns.
I guess this thread is about to go bye-bye.
Certainly the most hits that I've ever had for a post.
Made money this series. Hope to end on a good note.
This is the end...beautiful friend.
This is the end. My only friend...the end.
Of our elaborate plans...the end.
Of everything that stands...the end.
No safety or surprise...the end.
I'll never look into your eyes...again.
Can you picture what will be?
So limitless and free.
Desperately in need of some stranger's hand
In a desperate land.
(The Doors, The End)
...and all the children are insane...waiting for the summer rain...yeaaaahhh...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLAYOFF RECORD
16-8 +16.24
ML 11-1 +17.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 17-6 (73.9%...system is having no trouble in these playoffs?sweetness)
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) (2 of the 4 were doggies)
system totals 6-9
total picks 0-2 (65%+) due to hit one of these puppies; have one today
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Can't wait for the Series.
A hot Bosox team could make it interesting.
I think that the Rox would take down the Injuns.
I guess this thread is about to go bye-bye.
Certainly the most hits that I've ever had for a post.
Made money this series. Hope to end on a good note.
This is the end...beautiful friend.
This is the end. My only friend...the end.
Of our elaborate plans...the end.
Of everything that stands...the end.
No safety or surprise...the end.
I'll never look into your eyes...again.
Can you picture what will be?
So limitless and free.
Desperately in need of some stranger's hand
In a desperate land.
(The Doors, The End)
New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.
New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.
PLAYS
clev@Bost ov10 -104 2.08/2
I'm down on totals so far in these playoffs with my 1-2 mark there. This baby could get me in the black and I think that it should come in. Only 6 runs scored in game #3 but I think that there should certainly be more scored this time around; Fenway has been a little higher scoring than Jacobs this year and I don't see Matsuzaka having a dominating performance. I almost tried the Bosox runline but I'd like to see the Indians make a game of it with some timely hitting for a change; they were shut down pretty good in the Fenway opener but rebounded with a great game #2 so I don't see why that pattern can't continue in this match. Rockies would have a better chance with the Indians too, I think, making my play selection a little easier for the Series. Hate to see my money-man Beckett gone but I got over Peavy's non-appearance so I'd get over this exit just fine, too. Another one bites the dust. I'm certainly going to miss baseball, starting in the very near future but, MAN!...could I ever use a vacation!
Sleepy-time-time.
GL
There's danger on the edge of town.
Ride the king's highway, baby.
Weird scenes inside the goldmine.
Ride the highway west, baby.
(The End)
And in the end
The love you take
Is equal to the love
you make.
(The Beatles, In the End)
New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.
PLAYS
clev@Bost ov10 -104 2.08/2
I'm down on totals so far in these playoffs with my 1-2 mark there. This baby could get me in the black and I think that it should come in. Only 6 runs scored in game #3 but I think that there should certainly be more scored this time around; Fenway has been a little higher scoring than Jacobs this year and I don't see Matsuzaka having a dominating performance. I almost tried the Bosox runline but I'd like to see the Indians make a game of it with some timely hitting for a change; they were shut down pretty good in the Fenway opener but rebounded with a great game #2 so I don't see why that pattern can't continue in this match. Rockies would have a better chance with the Indians too, I think, making my play selection a little easier for the Series. Hate to see my money-man Beckett gone but I got over Peavy's non-appearance so I'd get over this exit just fine, too. Another one bites the dust. I'm certainly going to miss baseball, starting in the very near future but, MAN!...could I ever use a vacation!
Sleepy-time-time.
GL
There's danger on the edge of town.
Ride the king's highway, baby.
Weird scenes inside the goldmine.
Ride the highway west, baby.
(The End)
And in the end
The love you take
Is equal to the love
you make.
(The Beatles, In the End)
I'm kicking my self in the ass for not buying the Sox back before game 5 @+380, but I'm sticking w/my strategy of taking the dog in gm 6 and 7 under the thought that they won't lose 3 straight. I gotta say I'm not real confident. Westbrook not real imposing, but DiceK has been shooting craps as well. USA! USA! USA!
Thank you Extrapolater!
Thank you Extrapolater!
appreciate all your input Extrap. amazing analysis of the season, here's to your future input into the WS~
a little R & R before the R & R series **:00hour
Thank you Extrapolater!
appreciate all your input Extrap. amazing analysis of the season, here's to your future input into the WS~
a little R & R before the R & R series **:00hour
Thanks, Craiger.
I want some action on the side for this game but I'm not quite as confident in the 'Sox as some others are. Almost tried them at -1.5 for +130, last night (this morning, more like it), but now it's down to +115 so I think I'll stick with the total.
Should be a good game.
Is game #7, afterall, so it had BETTER be a good game.
Only way that it isn't, I'd say, is if the 'Sox jump out to an early 5-0 lead or something.
Wouldn't be too bad for my total, I suppose.
Haven't even looked at the Series yet.
Can't really even pretend to do a 'cap until I know who's in, and if it's the 'Sox then they'd be wise to NOT use Beckett tonight.
A Beckett appearance likely doesn't help my over, either.
ENJOY!
I want some action on the side for this game but I'm not quite as confident in the 'Sox as some others are. Almost tried them at -1.5 for +130, last night (this morning, more like it), but now it's down to +115 so I think I'll stick with the total.
Should be a good game.
Is game #7, afterall, so it had BETTER be a good game.
Only way that it isn't, I'd say, is if the 'Sox jump out to an early 5-0 lead or something.
Wouldn't be too bad for my total, I suppose.
Haven't even looked at the Series yet.
Can't really even pretend to do a 'cap until I know who's in, and if it's the 'Sox then they'd be wise to NOT use Beckett tonight.
A Beckett appearance likely doesn't help my over, either.
ENJOY!
