Brutal

lostinamerica

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My MNF Questions: (1) Is this Seahags team (weapons, chemistry, the works) at an echelon that generally responds in this spot to the game that played out over the course of 66 minutes in Cleveland? (2) Having lost 4 of their last 6 games by 18 or more points (and I read 4-20 ATS for the first 30 minutes over the last two seasons), are the league wide spotlight, and the emotions and disruptions of this week which include Mike Singletary filling in for HC Mike Nolan, generally the tonic to jar an underachieving squad like this Niners team (weapons, chemistry, the works) to threaten to move within a game of first place and a whiff of a playoff push? (3) If the weather stays brutal, is one shitty team more likely to be exposed by their miscues or control of the line of scrimmage? (4) Just pick the winner on MNF? I believe Dallas over Buffalo is the only exception this season.

I sometimes like my questions. My answers have been brutal.


S.F.:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/08/SPC0T817U.DTL
http://www1.pressdemocrat.com/article/20071112/SPORTS/711120331/1010/SPORT01
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/10/SP9FT9L0B.DTL

Seattle:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/seahawks/2003998306_hawk07.html
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/seahawks/story/201691.html

Weather:
http://q13.trb.com/news/kcpq-111207wind,0,5446941.story?coll=kcpq-news-1


Tampa Bay is a slam dunk for heading my list of teams for the 2007 season most appreciative of their bye going in and most likely to strike with a bounce coming out. Streaking Phatlanta sets up well.
http://www.ajc.com/falcons/content/sports/falcons/stories/2007/11/11/falrecap_1112.html
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/11/05/Bucs/Weary_winners.shtml


Seattle(-9) over San Francisco (1*)

Tampa Bay(-3)(-120) over Atlanta (1.5*)

Tease: Seattle(-2') w/ Tampa Bay (+3')(-120) (1*)


GL
 

lostinamerica

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Don't know how others managed to post in the 15minutes before and after the noon start, but I couldn't get on the site. These were my plays and comments, adding FWIW . . .

NFL YTD: 12-21 (-10.00*)

Strong matchups without great situations is my read on this card . . .

Tennessee(-1) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Needs the better coaching on the short week.

Houston(+3')(-120) over Cleveland (1*)
- - Looking close to the most popular posted play of the season . . . It's not that righteous.

Tampa Bay(-3)(-125) over Washington (1*)

- - Washington really plays desperate next week.

Denver(+1') over Chicago (1*)
- - Denver needs patience on offense and guile at the corners for some proper spin on Chicago's chatter about pursuing a championship.

Parlay: Tenn(Pk) w/ Houston(+3) w/ TB(-3) w/ Denver(+1') (0.30* for 3.39*)

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Again . . .

Don't know how others managed to post in the 15minutes before and after the noon start, but I couldn't get on the site. These were my plays and comments, adding FWIW . . .

NFL YTD: 14-24 (-11.40*)


Washington(-6) over Buffalo (1*)
- -
Tampa Bay(-3)(-125) over Washington (1*)
- - Washington really plays desperate next week.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113002306.html

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...?AID=/20071202/SPORTS03/712020309/1007/SPORTS


Philadelphia(-3) over Seattle (1*)
- -


Tampa Bay/New Orleans (Ov41') (1*)
- -


Denver(-3)(-130) over Oakland (1*)
- - http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_7566154
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/26/SPVDTJ0HM.DTL


Jacksonville(+7)(-120) over Indianapolis (1*)
- -


Parlay: Philadelphia(-3) w/ Denver(-3) w/ TB/NO(Ov41') w/ Jacksonville(+7) w/ New England(-19) (0.25* for 5.35*)


GL
 
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lostinamerica

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New England(-18) over Baltimore (1*)
- - I would prefer -22 and fewer elements, but you never know . . . although I know the game plan involves Brady firing it all over the field, because that's what they do . . .

GL
 

lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 18-29 (-13.60*)

New Orleans(-3') over Arizona (1*)

Miami(+3')(-120) over Baltimore (1*)

Tennessee(-3)(-125) over Kansas City (1*)

Carolina(+7)(-105) over Seattle (1*)

Parlay: (New Orleans(-3) w/ Miami(+3') w/ Tennessee(-3) w/ Dallas (-10) (0.25* to win 2.46*)

GL
 

lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 22-29 (-9.85*)

Jacksonville(-13) over Oakland (1*)
- - I wish New England was visiting Jacksonville today . . . Instead, Jags punching their ticket to the postseason will never be in doubt.

Cleveland/Cincinnati(Ov42') (1*)
- - 8 + 13 = 21 combined points last week, plenty of snaps and far more scoring plays today between these neighbors.

Houston(+7)(-115) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - A crack at the Super Bowl champs for a hungry and rested division rival in a spot for Indy that has been 0-10 ATS the last five years while never more meaningless.

Parlay: Jacksonville(-13) w/ Cleveland/Cincinnati(Ov42) w/ Houston(+7) w/ San Diego(-9) (0.25* for 2.83*)
- - your just stupid.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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I would have backed Jacksonville at home today against any of the 31 other teams in the league, and I was brain dead for not even contemplating bumping the play for more than 1 unit . . . I looked at and sort of liked the over in every early game except Green Bay/Chicago, and Cleveland is going to play out as about the only under in the early games . . . My fourth choice was to lay -5' with Detroit, so I'm probably no worse off for siding with the Houston :mj07: debacle instead.


Tampa Bay(-6) over San Francisco (1*)
- - My money here is on Garcia's return, the lunch pail squad with no Pro Bowlers, and Gruden with his lousy West Coast record, making life difficult for the Niners.
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/23/Bucs/Laying_it_on_the_line.shtml

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 23-33 (-12.45*)

Finishing up on last week . . .

"Garcia's return" to San Francisco was my #1 angle behind my play on Tampa(-6), and I duly posted accordingly. Leading 13-7 at the half, I then saw this post less than 90 seconds after the start of the second half:
Gotta play SF(+2) 2ndH.
Garcia has been pulled.
All TB WRS are done for the day.
Pittman in for Graham. TB players been getting hurt in this one and they will be deep on the bench in 2ndH.
You can believe me or not when I tell you I would have jumped all over a chance to hedge (with a small chance to still win one or both wagers) if I had been closely tracking the action; instead, I then had the pleasure of tracking the second half with the resignation of an inevitable train wreck.

Finally, San Diego(-9) was in my initial noon post as part of my parlay, and was my second strongest play of the week in which I was kicking myself for not even contemplating how hard I should have focused on Jacksonville . . . I played San Diego -10 on Monday, but Christmas Eve craziness meant I didn?t have time for any homework in the last 24 hours, so I didn?t want to bother tossing out another half-assed selection, and anoint the play with some brutal karma.

These last three posts are the anatomy of just 1 of the 16 weeks that go into making up a brutal regular season (how 0-2 led to 0-4 led to 6-19 was a very similar spiral of doing exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time, and having my teeth bashed in to the point of lacking confidence in doing the right thing at exactly the right time) . . .the sense of resignation that built up and up and up during my truly amazing 6-19 start in which the season was half over before it felt like I had even started tainted everything, mainly my enjoyment and self-belief about posting my plays, and contributing any information or insight to support the plays . . . So screw this and thanks for listening. :mj07:

GL
 

lostinamerica

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2007 NFL Regular Season (Weeks 1-8): 6-19 (-14.92*)
2007 NFL Regular Season (Weeks 9-17): 19-14 (+4.22*)

- - Any rally was a big help.

Washington(+3') over Seattle (1*)
- - Minnesota was the team to fear, Dallas is the beast to beat, the Giants were looking to clinch . . . There's nothing on the field or in playoff trends to suggest Washington has no spark left in their emotional tank . . . The cool and efficient command of the playbook by QB Todd Collins has probably been as responsible as Sean Taylor's death for Washington not finding creative ways to lose time and again, and I don't see his chamber as being out of bullets, either . . . Seattle was struggling as the best in the worst division until Holmgren said screw this approach and rolled the dice with an elite but hardly Hall of Fame QB . . . The writers have noted there appears to be a bounce in the step around the Seattle camp this week . . . This game has the makings of a Gibbs vs. Holmgren NFC classic and the best game of the weekend.

GL

***************************************


2007 NFL Regular Season: 25-33 (-10.70*)
2007-2008 NFL Post Season: 0-0 (+0.00*)

2006 NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)
2006-2007 NFL Post Season: 7-5 (+1.35*)
2006 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)
 

lostinamerica

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Jacksonville(-2') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - I actually have Jax(-1)(-120), but I'll post at -2', and I'm not playing both sides with Pitt(+3) . . .The first concern here is whether Jacksonville is in charge in the trenches but Roethlisberger manages to chuck it over the top early on a Jax defense that gives up too many big plays in that manner . . . Otherwise, although the Jags have failed in their biggest similar spots in the past, they are the better team with proper post season weapons and the right opponent, and IMO none of the 12 playoff teams is hungrier for a win.
Jan 2 9:19am Football - Pending 54.00 to win 45.00
1. Football - Jacksonville Jaguars - spread -1 (-120)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 8:00pm [pending]

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Teaser: New York Giants(+9) w/ San Diego(-4) (1*)
- - Last year the Patriots stole a game at San Diego they had no business being in; it won't be deja vu all over again . . . Eli can certainly be had, but he's also been around the block, and his team is prepared to get him through some lapses, within reason, and not go quietly.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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I made an early play on Jacksonville last week, but my posts are added when I come up with whatever INFORMATION and ANGLES I have to contribute . . . More early plays this week . . .

New York Giants(+7')(-115) over Dallas (1*)
- - A division rival built with a proper complement of post season weapons is not the draw Wade Phillips and his Boys wanted to laugh and smile their way through. But the first talk I'm hearing out of the Giants is a little too big and cocky for my liking, so just SHUT UP and stay under the radar.
- - http://www.star-telegram.com/332/story/383933.html
- - http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...after_topping_tampa_giants_hope_third_ti.html

New England(-11') over Jacksonville (1*)
- - "Total destruction", or something sufficiently akin thereto.

New England(-125) Wins Super Bowl XLII (1*)
- - Insurance against.

GL
 
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