starting to see the total rising...not surprised since almost all of the touts so far are picking the total to go over....
i get about 10-12 football newsletters a week & about all of them are also picking the total to go over...except one..
fwiw,here is their reasoning for choosing under....
excluding the ne game, the giants in their last 7 games have allowed an average of 18 points per game without ever giving up more than 22....during that same time span (also excluding their game with the giants), the pats in their last 6 games have allowed an average of 14 points per game without allowing more than 24 points. both 22 & 24 (each teams maximum allowed) & 18 & 14( each team's average allowed) are considerably less than the total posted for this game...with everything on the line this time, you will see a much different game than the first time these two teams played...
here also is a capper from another forum with imo is an outstanding analysis for the reason why he thinks the total should go under.....the key analysis for him was how the pats & the giants did in rematches this season...again take it fwiw..
Rematch Factor
Typically a rematch will only occur in division. There are several times it occurs in the playoffs as well. Two of the three Giants playoff games have been regular season rematches, and one of the two NE playoff games were rematches.
So, how do these teams take what they learned from the first meeting and apply it to the second. What typically happens with the scores of the rematch? If you ask me before I did the analysis, I'd probably say that the defenses have more time to adjust and the rematch game is slightly lower scoring.
Same can be said off a bye week. Offenses put in new packages and new wrinkles off a bye week, especially for a SB. But defenses (assuming it's a rematch from the regular season) can really adjust, strategize, and better matchup personnel to account for problems they had in the first meeting and plan for potential schemes or plays the opposing team may run. So, does a 2nd meeting of the year favor either team in particular, or does it favor scoring or does it favor defense?
First, let's look at the NYG in rematches:
The points to take away:
#1 - Typically in years past, NYG allowed more points to its opponents in their 2nd mtg than in their first. However, Steve Spagnuolo has firmed up this unit, when he replaced Tim Lewis last year. Now, NYG allows 6 fewer points in rematches, which is a 12 point improvement over 2006 and a 18 point improvement over 2005.
#2 - The NYG offense typically scores about 4 points less in rematches, which is about the same as they've done the past few years.
#3 - In rematches, the average final score is 39 points. NYG have not played in a rematch game this year where the final score was above 51 points, and it was 43 points total or below in 4 out of their 5 rematch games.
#4 - In the games where NYG did well in the first matchup, they didn't do as well in the rematch (Wash. and Phil. games, though they did win both Phil. games). In the games where NYG did poorly in the first meeting, they did better in the rematch (Dal playoff game, GB playoff game). I think NYG feel they did very well in the first meeting with the Pats. Also, NYG typically lost the rematch game by an avg of 3 points (though they did go 3-2, winning the 3 in close fashion, and losing the other 2 by 11 or 12 points).
Summary: NYG defense has improved in the rematch over its performance in the first meeting of the season. The final total scores are lower and the opponents put up fewer on the board.
Now, we can look at NE in its rematches
The points to take away:
#1 - NE also allowed 6 fewer points to its opponents in rematch games, which is the same as NYG, and is an improvement over NE's 2006 and 2007 defenses, though not by as much as NYG's improvement.
#2 - NE typically scored 10 points less in rematches. This was an interesting phenomenom which many blame on bad weather. However, while weather may have been a factor, it should have affected both teams. I know the Pats love to throw, but when the Pats get the lead then the other team will be affected trying to come back by throwing the ball. So at any rate, I won't discount that stat - teams adjusted and limited the Pats on offense by 10 fewer points.
#3 - In rematches, the average final score was 41 points. If you look past the 66 point rematch blowout score vs. Buf (56-10), the avg was only 33 total points. That is a far cry from the 1st meeting scores, which were 57 points.
#4 - In the rematches, the Pats still won comfortably for the most part, but the avg final score was 23-10 (again, ignoring Buf 56-10. Including that and it's 31-10)
Summary: Scores in the rematches were lower. Pats D stepped up and their offensive production dropped off. Many conclude the offensive dropoff is more correlated to inclement weather as opposed to opposing DCs scheming for NE. Personally I think that you should have at worst a 50/50 split, which means -5 PPG for NE for weather and -5 PPG for NE for opposing D adjustments.
totals..
I think you have to look back at #3 for NYG and #4 for NE above:
#3 - In rematches, the average final score is 39 points. NYG have not played in a rematch game this year where the final score was above 51 points, and it was 43 points total or below in 4 out of their 5 rematch games.
#4 - In the rematches, the Pats still won comfortably for the most part, but the avg final score was 23-10 (again, ignoring Buf 56-10. Including that and it's 31-10)
The other thing you have to do is look back at rematches of both teams. They both hold the opposing team to an avg of 6 fewer points scored and score an avg of 6 fewer on offense. So for the skeptics, you will say "73 points were scored in the first meeting, so 12 fewer is still 61, well above the total".
And I will tell you that a lot had to go right for NYG to put up 35 that first meeting.
Do you really think NYG will return 8 KOs for 221 yards and 1 TD again? I know both teams are in the top 7 in KO returns, but NYG does not come close to that avg over the regular season, and had only 1 TD all year and that was against NE. Rest assured, NE will be better prepared in KO coverage.
Secondly, do you really think Eli will throw for 250 and 4 TDs and only 1 Int?
Third, do you think that Feagles will avg only 30 yards per punt for NYG and Hanson for NE will only avg 39.5 yards per punt? Feagles averaged 40 yds per game on the season, and Hanson's warmest games of the year, in Mia and the 1st game of the year @ NYJ in Sep, he avg over 52 yds. Special teams will be a factor in terms of field position, and I think both teams special teams will not play as poorly this game as they played in Dec.
Then you have to look back at NE's record in these bye week games, and they are 5-1-1 Under. Opposing teams averaged 17, and looking only at SBs, averaged 22.
good luck...
