SERIES PLAY

[kegray1]

I think these odds are just too high.

ROCKETS(+190) to win series over Jazz for 100.

I live in Houston, but dont really care about Rox whatsoever.

Here is my reason for the play.
Houston has home court advantage.
Utah was 17-24 on the road this season.
Last season this series went 7 and game 7 was a toss up.
Game 7 would again be in Houston this season. Can Jazz do it 2 years in a row.Sure,but 2-1 seems high.

T-Mac is banged up,but will play.
Looks like Alston will miss 1st 2 games, so Bobby Jackson will start.
This concerns me somewhat.

 

[flapjack]

What about this:
Lakers
1300 to win 200
Rockets
200 to win 380?

The Lakers will TCB without a doubt, so you'll be taking a free shot on the Rockets to get you close to 4 bills. Take that to the bank. That will give you a nice bank roll for the WNBA you love so much.

 

[kegray1]

Nuggets have about as much a chance of winning that series as the Dolphins have in winning the next Super Bowl.

I was gonna take the Jazz to win the series thinking it would be a pickem with no home court, but those odds are calling me.

 

[shamrock]

I would be extremely careful of Utah. Houston had home court last season, and healthy yau, and Utah beat them on sheer hustle & guts. I lost small fortune, be careful.

 

[kegray1]

I think Jazz win the series, but with those odds I have to play Houston.
They have proven they can play without Yao and Utah can't take advantage of his absence anyway.
Does Okur even come inside the 3 point line??

Like I said this is an odds play.

 

[gjn23]

I think Jazz win the series, but with those odds I have to play Houston.
They have proven they can play without Yao and Utah can't take advantage of his absence anyway.
Does Okur even come inside the 3 point line??

Like I said this is an odds play.

huh

:shrug:

your wagering like a rookie and a loser.....never make a bet based on odds, make a bet based on your research of who the likely winner is.......inthis case you think it's utah (as do i)....hou could be +190, +300, +600.....it pays the same when utah wins, nothing.

aka "value".......hear it all the time from my loser friends at the track......the only "value" is in the winner.......now, if you want to pass on a wager because the odds are very low, that's a wise option....but to completely go the other way purely based on the odds......:nono:

 

[kegray1]

Like I said it is an odds play.
CAN YOU TELL ME WHY UTAH IS SUCH A HUGE FAVORITE??
And dont say no Yao.That is a joke to say it after there record without him.

Research says Utah was AWFUL on the road in the regular season.(17-24 tied for worst road record of any playoff team not named Atlanta).

Research says Deron Williams is banged up.

Research says these teams are very EVENLY matched, but odds dont reflect it.
I say that I THINK Utah wins the series in 7.
If I knew then it wouldn't be gambling would it.

Rockets will be favored at home in a game 7 so I would have them at 2-1 odds in that game.
If I was scared then I could hedge on Jazz,but doubtful.

And I am not trying to break the bank.It is a 100 craps.

 

[kegray1]

huh

:shrug:

aka "value".......hear it all the time from my loser friends at the track......the only "value" is in the winner.......now, if you want to pass on a wager because the odds are very low, that's a wise option....but to completely go the other way purely based on the odds......:nono:

I am sure they get the underdog rush, I guess that I am looking for the same feeling my friend.

 

[shamrock]

huh

:shrug:

your wagering like a rookie and a loser.....never make a bet based on odds, make a bet based on your research of who the likely winner is.......inthis case you think it's utah (as do i)....hou could be +190, +300, +600.....it pays the same when utah wins, nothing.

aka "value".......hear it all the time from my loser friends at the track......the only "value" is in the winner.......now, if you want to pass on a wager because the odds are very low, that's a wise option....but to completely go the other way purely based on the odds......:nono:

sometimes I disagree with gjn, and he usually points it out:SIB , but what he is telling you here is basic gambling 101, couldn't agree more. No value in losers.

 

[kegray1]

I agree and the Jazz are a bunch losers.
Remind me of their last title??

 

[kegray1]

I compare it to NO(-140)/Dal(+120).
The value is NO, but it is too tough to call.
Dallas has been BELOW AVERAGE since getting Kidd which tells me NO should be longer odds.
The gambling public and media doesnt believe in NO so it is low.
It is clear the media has ZERO confidence in Houston.

The public is on Houston more than Utah today.

Rockets will be the favorite in every home game in which they would have 4,so how does Vegas come up with now +220 odds.

 

[kegray1]

What about this:
That will give you a nice bank roll for the WNBA you love so much.

Can't wait. :0corn

Lets get these overpaid thugs off their courts and bring on the bitches.

 

[gjn23]

i dont believe hou will be favored at home in all 4 games....if there are in fact 4 home games for the rockets....aren't they laying 1 today???? think the line keeps getting adjusted in utah's favor each game

point is, if you believe that team x is the team thats going to win the seires, then betting team y because their odds are nice is not a very smart gambling tactic

now if you truly believe it's a toss up, then yes, houston is a nice play.

there's a reason utah is a -240ish fav.....they are the better team and virtually unbeatable at home.

that said, i have wash and phx to win their series and both blew game 1 today so what do i know.

 

[kegray1]

If I liked the Jazz in 4 or 5 games then I would have played them no matter the odds.
I had already penciled in a 6 or 7 game series.
Houston will not win at Utah so they must T.C.B at home like last season series until game 7.
The only way I see Utah as a favorite in a game @Hou is if they win one of them.
If that happens then it is a mute point anyway because the series is already over.
Good Luck to ya.

 

[ldabdou]

If you like this than they must win at one of the first two. You think it will be tonight? I think it has to be tonight for your play to come through....

 

[kegray1]

You can turn out the lights!
Houston has little to no chance in Utah.
Might sack up for game 2,but wouldn't count on it.
100 craps I will never see again.

 

[maverick2112]

You almost have to feel sorry for TMAC........looks like one of those games where 1 team is playing 5 on 1.............

 

[flapjack]

i dont believe hou will be favored at home in all 4 games....if there are in fact 4 home games for the rockets....aren't they laying 1 today???? think the line keeps getting adjusted in utah's favor each game

point is, if you believe that team x is the team thats going to win the seires, then betting team y because their odds are nice is not a very smart gambling tactic

now if you truly believe it's a toss up, then yes, houston is a nice play.

there's a reason utah is a -240ish fav.....they are the better team and virtually unbeatable at home.

that said, i have wash and phx to win their series and both blew game 1 today so what do i know.

I disagree. It is value bettting. If you think Houston has a 45% chance of winning, but you can get Houston at +190 ie the bookies are saying they think Houston has a roughly 34% chance of winning(if my math is right), then you would have value in that bet. When you are not looking at straight bets ie -110, value betting and comparing your % chance of winnign versus the bookies % chance of winning is the first thing you have to look at.

 

[kegray1]

I was looking forward to being the first person to ever cash a loser(as labeled by gjn23).
That dream is dead.
I think he was under the idea that I loved Utah. My lean was Utah,but those odds amazed me so I took Houston.

Turns out I was an idiot.
T-Mac needs to go,but he has ZERO value because of injury and VERY HIGH salary. I guess it could be worse, Houston could still have Francis(oh wait we they got him back) and boy has he helped.

 

[gjn23]

I disagree. It is value bettting. If you think Houston has a 45% chance of winning, but you can get Houston at +190 ie the bookies are saying they think Houston has a roughly 34% chance of winning(if my math is right), then you would have value in that bet. When you are not looking at straight bets ie -110, value betting and comparing your % chance of winnign versus the bookies % chance of winning is the first thing you have to look at.

guess i just look at it the other way......do i really think a team (in this case houston) WILL beat another team 4 times (in this case utah).

i dont even look at the odds.

if my answer is no, then that team is a no wager no matter what the odds.

in this case i saw little chance that hou could beat utah 4 times in 7 trys......as was suggested by the original poster who liked utah to win, but had to bet hou becasue of the odds......in the end, those "value" bets just suck money out of your bankroll.