SERIES PLAY

[flapjack]

guess i just look at it the other way......do i really think a team (in this case houston) WILL beat another team 4 times (in this case utah).

i dont even look at the odds.

if my answer is no, then that team is a no wager no matter what the odds.

in this case i saw little chance that hou could beat utah 4 times in 7 trys......as was suggested by the original poster who liked utah to win, but had to bet hou becasue of the odds......in the end, those "value" bets just suck money out of your bankroll.

I understand its difficult to bet on a team you dont think will win, but let me ask this question - If the Rockets were 10-1 odds would you bet on them? I think when you are used to betting the usual -110 odds, you are conditioned to only bet on a team if you think will win - better than 55% chance. But, when you throw odds into it, you have to look at your % chance of winning and then compare it to the odds being given. If you're comfortable in your %'s, then just look for value versus the line and bet on the value side, in the long run you should be profitable whether you are betting on the favorites or underdogs.

That being said, Gray, your foolish H Town bet is dust. No money for the bitches I am sad to say.

 

[kegray1]

That being said, Gray, your foolish H Town bet is dust. No money for the bitches I am sad to say.

My WNBA knowledge is so deep that I don't need to start with a nice bankroll.:00x23

Just remember what Rudy T said about the Rockets "Don't ever under estimate the heart of a champion."

Too bad it doesn't apply to this Rockets team, but I will apply it here just for sheer enjoyment of the rest of this series.

 

[gjn23]

I understand its difficult to bet on a team you dont think will win, but let me ask this question - If the Rockets were 10-1 odds would you bet on them? I think when you are used to betting the usual -110 odds, you are conditioned to only bet on a team if you think will win - better than 55% chance. But, when you throw odds into it, you have to look at your % chance of winning and then compare it to the odds being given. If you're comfortable in your %'s, then just look for value versus the line and bet on the value side, in the long run you should be profitable whether you are betting on the favorites or underdogs.

That being said, Gray, your foolish H Town bet is dust. No money for the bitches I am sad to say.

if the rockets were +1000 would i bet on them?

no

i dont think they can beat utah 4 times in 7 games so whatever you make the number, it's still a loser.

now, utah at -2500 or whatever it would be in this scenario is way too much for my to wager so i'd pass on the series bet...

 

[kegray1]

Utha only lost 4 games at home this season and 1 was to Houston(with Yao).
Keep hope alive.

 

[kegray1]

Here we go again.
Time to make a bad decision worse, I think.

ROCKETS(+700) to win series for 50.

Rockets are only getting (+280) for game 6 and will be favored if a game 7.

UTAH HAS SHOWN ME NOTHING!!!

Won Games 1 & 2 but Rockets were missing Rafer and Utah didn't exactly roll in either game.

Rocket won game 3 and had a good chance in game 4 despite a so so outing.
Game 5 was a blowout win for Hou.

Rockets are very determined and VERY underestimated just because Yao is out.

I see Game 6 and Game 7(if happens) both as toss ups so I will take 7-1.

Papa needs a WNBA bankroll.

 

[ldabdou]

Good luck. Rooting for ya in a big way. Love Hou tonight w/ the 7.5. If Utah wins the series I don't see them doing much more than that moving forward. They remind me of the Buffalo Bills..

 

[Jord20]

Ahhh, the good old poker argument. I hear this stuff at the tables ALL the time. I actually agree more with gjn23 here...

People always call, and when they lose, it's the good old, "well the pot was paying me this or this to make the call. I had to." NO, you didn't have to. You could have folded because you know that chump wouldn't have made that play in that situation, so you release. Now, don't get me wrong, you obviously use the odds to make bets and calls throughout, but If you get too caught up in the odds and not the reality, you are going to make many bad plays "playing the odds."

Just my humble opinion anyway.

I wished Utah swept Houston to make the odds a little better in the next round. I was a big Rockets fan growing up, so would love to see the upset now.

Good Luck to all

 

[kegray1]

Now, don't get me wrong, you obviously use the odds to make bets and calls throughout, but If you get too caught up in the odds and not the reality, you are going to make many bad plays "playing the odds."

What is the reality???

Seems to me reality is that Utah is really not any better than Houston.
Which game in this series has Utah shown they are the superior team?

Is it an odds play? YES.
Do I believe Houston can win this series? 100% YES.

But I do get your point.
Good Luck.

If you think Houston can win tonite then why would you play the ML @+280 when you can get +700 for the series.
You can cover your bet with a Utah Game 7 play because they will be underdogs, so you would have a free play on Houston in game 7 with 6-1 odds on top of it.

 

[flapjack]

Ahhh, the good old poker argument. I hear this stuff at the tables ALL the time. I actually agree more with gjn23 here...

People always call, and when they lose, it's the good old, "well the pot was paying me this or this to make the call. I had to." NO, you didn't have to. You could have folded because you know that chump wouldn't have made that play in that situation, so you release. Now, don't get me wrong, you obviously use the odds to make bets and calls throughout, but If you get too caught up in the odds and not the reality, you are going to make many bad plays "playing the odds."

Just my humble opinion anyway.

I wished Utah swept Houston to make the odds a little better in the next round. I was a big Rockets fan growing up, so would love to see the upset now.

Good Luck to all

Actually, its more of a moneyline agrument than a poker arguement. In that poker analogy you are making a play based on what you think another guy at your table is going to do. And, anything you do will effect his decision. This is purely figuring out the correct odds based on the numbers set out by some sports book and translating it into something you can compare to your own analysis. If, and only if, you decide to play a side with odds as opposed to points, you have to play on the side with value. You will lose big in the long run if you don't. Doesnt matter if you're taking a favorite at -700 or a long shot at +700. You have to determine what that translates into as far as the % to win. In this case, -700 would be 86% chance of winning at -700 or 14% chance of winning at +700 (I think my math is right?). So, if you think the dog has a 25% chance of winning there woud be value in that +700, but you will lose money in the long run if you take a favorite who you think has a 75% chance of winning and pay odds of -700. But, if you think they have a 90%+ chance of winning, then -700 is value. The only catch is you have be good enough to to figure out the odds of a team winning. If you can do that, and always play the value side, you will win in the long run.

 

[Jord20]

Actually, its more of a moneyline agrument than a poker arguement. In that poker analogy you are making a play based on what you think another guy at your table is going to do. And, anything you do will effect his decision. This is purely figuring out the correct odds based on the numbers set out by some sports book and translating it into something you can compare to your own analysis. If, and only if, you decide to play a side with odds as opposed to points, you have to play on the side with value. You will lose big in the long run if you don't. Doesnt matter if you're taking a favorite at -700 or a long shot at +700. You have to determine what that translates into as far as the % to win. In this case, -700 would be 86% chance of winning at -700 or 14% chance of winning at +700 (I think my math is right?). So, if you think the dog has a 25% chance of winning there woud be value in that +700, but you will lose money in the long run if you take a favorite who you think has a 75% chance of winning and pay odds of -700. But, if you think they have a 90%+ chance of winning, then -700 is value. The only catch is you have be good enough to to figure out the odds of a team winning. If you can do that, and always play the value side, you will win in the long run.

Points well taken. And you right except, I was actually talking about calling a bet on the end based on pot odds. Nothing you do affects his decision in this spot. You just have to figure out what percent chance he could be holding hands A,B,or C, then make your play based on that. Then like you said, "The only catch is you have be good enough to to figure out the odds (that he has that particular hand).