Updated 2008 posted record
4W-2L +$20,000
1-0 +$9,000 for the night - Boston wins outright!
Hey guys thanks for the kind words - I guess I have a knack for picking these games when I pick my spots. I've been very successful over the years playing sports. I decided though going into this year that I was going to be really selective - I have so many great things and business ventures going on that my time is limited but I have a true love for sports and analyzing good spots - I'll post every play i make this year. This was my first plays since picking the Giants to win outright on the moneyline in the Super Bowl so glad it came through.
Big papi/Bigfatlooza - yes I was the guy who grabbed Pitt on the ML vs. West Virginia - got them at +4600 moneyline - $500 to win $23,000 - was really a nice hit towards the end of last college football season.
I find that I've always done well w/ this stuff i swear sometimes i can see an outcome before it happens - but i've also fallen victim to giving back too many games when i played way too many games for the action - so I've decided to maximize the profits - only make the strongest of strong plays. I won't win them all, but I've been really good at turning profits year in and out.
A few words of advice though are if you are playing sports seriously do it to
a) Have fun - if you are not having fun, don't bet on sports - that's always my rule #1 - i know a lot of people who bet sports that are miserable - don't do it if it's not fun - don't bet what you can't afford to lose or will make you miserable
b) If you are going to bet sports - analyze the line and the situation - I know I've posted several lengthy posts in the past - I know I'm more of a "feel player" and i like to look at the psychological aspects of the game alot - and i don't put as much stock into stats and numbers.
c) Play to turn a profit - after years of turning some very good profits - i decided after looking back at notes i took after all my plays that one of my weaknesses was simply playing too many games - too many action games - often out of boredom because a game was on tv and so why not throw something on it to make it more interesting - I also don't get burned out anymore - if you play this stuff daily/weekly/monthly/yearly it gets draining.
Best thing to do is to bet small until you get it figured out - my good friends think i'm the luckiest guy in the world becuase i do well at this as well as have a knack for creating businesses and doing well in the stock & commodity markets, etc - one thing I always do is if i'm going to do something - i do it the best i possibly can - i figure it out. I often find what i'm doing is opposite of what most are...when i started though sports betting for over a year i simply tracked games and what i thought after analyzing lines - i did this until i was good enough to win consitently - then i started betting small - after nearly 10 years of playing games you figure things out and see angles others might not - and you don't have to win them all...I'm content grinding out 55-58% winners - but one thing that is very powerful are moneyline bets - year in and out i have a few big hits - don't underestimate the power of underdogs long term - year in and out there are tons of upsets. Also always think of the "long run" - when i make a play - especially moneylines - i know I don't need to win them all - heck I usually find some nice big ML dog gems throughout the year - i might only have to hit 20% of my plays to turn a profit
4) Really try to understand Reality vs. Perception - this is where you make your money - can't sum it up too quickly but especially for big moneyline dogs - a price is set due to perception - but reality might be quite different. What i mean is the perception might be that like in the Pitt vs. West Virginia game last year - where Pitt was a 46 to 1 underdog - the perception was Pitt had virtually no chance of winning even if they played 50 times. However the more I broke that game down i saw a team that could a) play defense and b) run the football - if things came together I gave them a much higher "reality chance" to win w/ a frequency more than 1 in 46 times over the long run. This became a play for me. I risked $500 to win a $23,000 payday. Fortunately for me Pitt did come together, and we found out the reality was that the perception was probably off - the underdog really should not have been given that high of odds - the oddsmaker has to play off of perception though. This is where I've been good over the years - analyzing situations, looking at it from a long run perspective - and then putting my money where my analysis is. Did I expect to win that game - no i did not - I know I could win that play 3 times out of 100 scenarios and it would be profitable. Also keep in mind Standford beat USC as like a 41 pt underdog - i remember playing Stanford taking the points - i didn't do a moneyline but i'm sure someone was offering it and it had to be an insane number probably in the 60 to 1 range - i could go on and on w/ just college football and all the major double digit dog upsets that happened - which can be summed up in a phrase i like to use "no team is as good as they appear and no team is as bad as they appear" - I've historically focused on underdogs and have become good at spotting the good long run investments on them.
Anyways - there are probably plenty out there that produce better results than me but I have won consistently and i have certain things I look for - I've also found that I receive alot of negative criticism and some people just think i'm plain crazy and usually tell me my methods are incorrect - well all i have to do is look at my profits over the years and they speak for themselves (i have noticed alot of the "doubters" are long run losers in the sports investing game - they just can't embrace when someone is posting or trying to say things to help them become a long run winner).
Over the last two years I've been writing a rough draft of my sports investing book - I currently have nearly 300 pages written and someday I'll have it published - just full of things I look for and basically have thought about what I have used to make winning plays year after year - I think there is a real lack of reading material on this subject - and this I believe is going to be the best book ever written on the subject. I love to write and my goal is to create sort of a "how to" guide for making serious money in the sports market - i like to call it sports investing because essentially that's what we are doing - putting up money because we believe we will create a positive ROI when we make a play. Personally I've read about 10 books on sports handicapping - most I came away with nothing of use. My goal is to teach someone with no knowledge whatsoever of the sports market how to beat the game. My plan is to continue to solidify the material, and then run tests on several friends I have who know nothing about sports investing currently. I don't care if it takes me 10 years to complete it, I would never publish anything unless I believed 100% that it would help out someone else and that after reading it they could walk away confident and ready to enter the sports investing game.
I have a strong Finance background as well so I actually approach things much like a financial planner would and one big thing I spent alot of time documenting is how much your starting bankroll should be - i think this is something that most don't have a handle on - they just call in games or bet with $1,000 they have in the bank right now - what you should do is evaluate your lifestyle, all your investments and determine an optimal amount you have to invest - and put it in a separate account or treat it as a separate investment. I've just seen so many people blow their bankroll in a weekend - you wouldn't blow your $1,000 you just invested in a mutual fund in a weekend now would you? So it's just silly to do so in the sports market. Always have a plan and if you have a $1,000 bankroll, you better not be putting it all at risk over the course of a day/weekend.
I believe strongly in having long term goals and plans. Anyways another lenghty post - but it's been fun chatting and I haven't posted in awhile. I'm happy Boston came through tonight. I hope they win the whole thing. I'll be sure to post if i have anything for the Finals.
Take care everyone - best of luck to you as always - enjoy your weekend!
-SAVE IT
