college plays for week #10....

[AR182]

81-60

last week was absolutely brutal....looking to rebound...will be looking to limit my plays this week...& no totals !!


kent st +9....

may have more of a writeup later in the week...but this is a rushing dog.


good luck

 

[Cie]

GL chief. I was mauled yesterday too. Good thing that's behind us now. GL this week:toast:

 

[Irish]

AR,
Hope you rebound buddy, I am sure you will. Thanks for the info, alway appreciate your work.

Cheers
Irish

 

[LDB]

it happens gl this week

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

adding...

utah st+8(120)...

wanted to post this because i am starting to see that the books are dropping this line...i should have a writeup on this later in the week...but think this is a very live dog....

good luck

 

[BadAngel]

GL AR. I had a bad Sat also but Sun I was 7-3 to recover. I always do good on Sun and sometimes play more games than I should on Sat. I have the same confidence in both sports going in, but I always do better in the NFL.

Once again GL, and bounce back.

BA

 

[ajoytoy]

you'll rebound...gl this week Al

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

adding....

under 31.5 (120) houston/marshall 1st half.....

found something interesting in looking at this game...

houston averages 14.6 points per game in the 1st half...while allowing 15.1 points.....which brings the total to...29.7 points in the 1st half...

marshall averages 10.7 points per game in the 1st half...while allowing 12.4 points.....which brings the total to..23.1 points in the 1st half.....

if you add both #'s & divide by 2 brings the total to....26.4.....so i have capped this game about 5 points less than what the books are offering for the 1st half total....

i think the first half will be a feeling out process & i don't think marshall will want to trade points with houston...so i think they will try to play keep away from the houston offense...add all of this to possible windy conditions & i think this game will stay under the first half total....


good luck..

 

[Morris]

I've had several bad Saturdays. Don't even think about it and you'll be fine. I know what you mean about totals. GL!!

 

[tulah]

LW was brutal for me too.

keep up the solid capping and I'm sure you'll turn it around. Still plenty of time to get it right.

GL this week

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

here are small writeups on the 2 plays that i posted earlier in the week...

kent...

kent features a combo of 2 great rushers in qb edleman & rb jarvis...last week these 2 combined to rush for 263 yards against miami-o.....while bg defense allows about 200 rushing yards per game. also bg will be missing 2 of their biggest offensive playmakers ti injury(willie geter & freddie barnes).

play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (bowling green) - poor rushing team (100-140 ry/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 ry/game), after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

since 1992 the ats record is.....49-20.....71%



utah st.....

i watched hawaii last week when they played nev-reno & wasn't too impressed with them & don't think they should be favored by a td on the road to anybody....meanwhile eventhough utah st is 1-7 su on the year, they are 4-4 ats.

since 1992, hawaii is 13-26 ats in road games after playing 2 straight conference games.....

play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (hawaii) - poor rushing team (100-140 ry/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 ry/game), after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

since 1992 the ats record is.......49-20.......71%

 

[AR182]

adding.....

kentucky+3.5(120)....

imo these 2 teams are pretty even..so i think it can be decided by a fg either way....bought the .5 point for security..

the entire kentucky team should be motivated for this game to erase last week's embarrassing loss to fla....& am not surprised that when the line first came out for this game it was at pick....& the early bettors, who obviously saw what fla. did to kentucky took miss. st & the line was bet up to where it is now at 3....but am starting to see a reversal back down again.

before last week's game, ku was the #1 defense in the sec.....& their sos is higher than miss. st.....ku's 3 losses were by bama by 3, so. car. by 7, & the big loss to fla......some of msu's loses were to auburn 3-2, tenn by 31, lsu by 10, & gt by 31.

play on - a road team (ku) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....28-6.......82.4%

the situation's record this season is......2-0

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....8-0

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....11-1

also kentucky lost last year to miss. st by 17 as a 14 point favorite.


good luck

 

[arrow]

ar

ar

don't feel bad about last saturday, i had my first losing college weekend when i went 4-6. this week is looking really good though, 2 easy wins last night and i got kent in yesterday mourning at +7 and bought the hook to 7-, i like the fact bowling green is not doing well at home and bowling green lost to miami ohio at home by 7 and kent went to ohio and beat them bad. what we have here is two teams going in oppisite directions and you added the 2 key injuries with bowling green is huge for a average kent defense. we will control the clock and will win the at the cashier after the game.kurby this is a very solid pick, and i am with ya, bud!!!!!!!!!:toast:

 

[RAYMOND]

gl brother al:00hour

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding....

iowa +3.5(120)....

i like the fact that iowa is off a bye week, while ill., who was upset last week by wisconsin, is playing their 6th straight game without a bye.

iowa has the 44th ranked total offense in the nation......with their rushing game ranking 22nd in the nation.....their featured back, shonn greene is 3rd in the nation in rushing average gaining close to 150 ypg.....& although iowa's passing attack ranks 86th in the nation, they are very efficient when throwing the football as their qb stanzi is 25th in the nation in passing efficiency......also iowa averages 29.75 ppg ranking them 40th in the nation. on defense iowa is the 20th ranked total defense in the nation allowing under 300 ypg......including allowing 105 ypg on the ground, which ranks them 22nd in the nation.....& is ranked 5th in pass efficiency defense & 5th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 11 ppg. in addition iowa has not allowed a team to score more than 22 points this season. iowa has beaten illinois 5 straight times & in 3 of those games they held the illy offense to 7 or less points.

illinois ranks 11th in total offense at at 462 ypg......they are 26th in the nation in rushing at 190 ypg.....& 16th in passing offense....& eventhough illinois averages 33 ppg, they only scored 20, 20 & 17 against lafayette, minn. & wisc respectively....the defenses of those teams do not even come close to matching iowa's.......illy's problem is their defense as they allow 152 rushing ypg...& is allowing 200 ypg through the air, which ranks them 80th in pass efficiency defense.....& is ranked 75th in scoring defense allowing 27 ppg....& has not held a single opponent this year under 17 points, while iowa who has held opponents in single digits in 4 of their 8 games.

i'll take the better team coming off a bye....


good luck

 

[NySportsfan]

thanks guys....

adding....

iowa +3.5(120)....

i like the fact that iowa is off a bye week, while ill., who was upset last week by wisconsin, is playing their 6th straight game without a bye.

iowa has the 44th ranked total offense in the nation......with their rushing game ranking 22nd in the nation.....their featured back, shonn greene is 3rd in the nation in rushing average gaining close to 150 ypg.....& although iowa's passing attack ranks 86th in the nation, they are very efficient when throwing the football as their qb stanzi is 25th in the nation in passing efficiency......also iowa averages 29.75 ppg ranking them 40th in the nation. on defense iowa is the 20th ranked total defense in the nation allowing under 300 ypg......including allowing 105 ypg on the ground, which ranks them 22nd in the nation.....& is ranked 5th in pass efficiency defense & 5th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 11 ppg. in addition iowa has not allowed a team to score more than 22 points this season. iowa has beaten illinois 5 straight times & in 3 of those games they held the illy offense to 7 or less points.

illinois ranks 11th in total offense at at 462 ypg......they are 26th in the nation in rushing at 190 ypg.....& 16th in passing offense....& eventhough illinois averages 33 ppg, they only scored 20, 20 & 17 against lafayette, minn. & wisc respectively....the defenses of those teams do not even come close to matching iowa's.......illy's problem is their defense as they allow 152 rushing ypg...& is allowing 200 ypg through the air, which ranks them 80th in pass efficiency defense.....& is ranked 75th in scoring defense allowing 27 ppg....& has not held a single opponent this year under 17 points, while iowa who has held opponents in single digits in 4 of their 8 games.

i'll take the better team coming off a bye....


good luck

agree with you AL, I saw Iowa play very well at MSU who has a much better defense....where are you finding this 3.5 :shrug: I see 2.5 everywhere....unless you bought a full point to go over 3?

 

[AR182]

mike....betonline had the game at 3 earlier today...


adding....

fla.-5(120)...

this game features the 8th ranked team favored over the 6th ranked team in the bcs rankings.

this is a huge revenge game for the gators because in last years game, won by georgia (42-30), the bulldogs did a "team td dance" when they scored their first td....& fla. hasn't forgotten it. in his book, titled "urban's way", meyer wrote..."we'll handle it, & it's going to be a big deal.it wasn't right...it was a bad deal". meyer has also issued a gag order on himself & his players for this game.

the difference, for fla. between last year's team & this year's is the defense. last year 5 opponents scored at least 30 points & they were last in the sec in pass defense ( 258 yds. per game) & 8th in scoring defense (25.5 ppg)....this season fla. has held 5 of 7 opponents to 10 or fewer points & ranks 6th in pass defense (170 ypg) & 2nd in scoring defense (11.5 ppg). before scoring 52 points last week against lsu, georgia's offense averaged only 24 ppg in their 5 games against major opposition.

also fla. is 10-0 su/ats in this series when they enter off consecutive wins.....& meyer is 26-10 as a dog or favorite of 7 or less points, including 13-2 when seeking revenge.....& richt is 0-18 ats in games he losses su when not taking double digits.

finally a trend that applies against georgia.....since 1990, teams who beat the defending national champs (lsu) are 0-8 su/ats as a dog in their next game


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

conn+4....

i am never impressed with conn. anytime that i watch them...so i bet cin. against them last week....& lost. watching that game it finally dawned on me that this is a well coached team that plays to their strengths which is rushing the ball & playing stout defense. and eventhough they routed a pretty good cin team, they did not garner the attention that w. virginia got by beating auburn, from the big, bad sec.....& that's why i think the line jumped from the opening line of wv-2.5 to -4....

conn. is a dominant home team....they are 16-5 ats in their last 21 home games......& is 8-2 ats in their last 10 conference games....& since 2002, they are 10-1 su at home in nov.

additional trends favoring conn...

conn. is 13-2 ats vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.75 or less passing yards/att. since 1992.

conn. is 11-1 ats in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.

conn. is 8-0 ats in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

wv is 1-10 ats in their last 11 games following a ats win....& is 1-4 ats in their last 5 games following a su win.....& 1-5 ats in their last 6 conference games.....wv is 0-2 on the road this year scoring a total of 17 points.


play against - a road team (w.vir.) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....52-22.....70.3%

finally, last year conn. gave up the most points to a big east opponent when they lost 66-21 to w. virginia.....


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

col.st.+15(120)....

i think that col. st. has enough balance on offense to keep this game within the 2tds....especially at home (3-0 ats) where they play very well....& are 11-4 ats as a double digit home dog.....also csu is 16-2 ats with revenge (lost last year to byu) after scoring 35 or more points, including 1-0 ats this year......which was vs tcu, where they lost by just 6 points......the rams are also 5-1 ats before playing air force.

now that byu is no longer in the bcs bowl hunt, they don't have much to play for anymore.....they are playing like they are uninterested as witnessed by them being 0-4 ats in their last 4.....for the season byu is 2-5 ats, including 0-3 ats as a road favorite....also byu is 1-7 ats after allowing 35 or more points vs an opponent off a su win.


play on - home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (col. st) - off a road win.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.......27-5.......84.4%

the situation's record this season is.......1-0


play on - home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (col.st.) - off a road win, when playing on a Saturday.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is......25-2......92.6%

the situation's record this season is....1-0


good luck

 

[CornHunka]

I really enjoy your analysis, your info is top notch, and I tail at least 2 of your plays every week.


I would like your opinion on these two games.

Texas A&M -3 vs Colorado

Navy -7 vs Temple.


thanks and BOL this and every week.