college plays for week #10....

AR182

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I really enjoy your analysis, your info is top notch, and I tail at least 2 of your plays every week.


I would like your opinion on these two games.

Texas A&M -3 vs Colorado

Navy -7 vs Temple.


thanks and BOL this and every week.

thanks cornhunka...

last week i played smu against navy & lost....navy ran right through the smu defense without throwing a pass....can they do that against temple...i am not sure since temple defends the run pretty well...& if they can't run then they will have to depend on their 2nd or 3rd string qb to make some completions....& since temple has their starting qb back...they could do some damage to navy's defense.....so no play for me at this point..

i have no opinion on the a&m game...you should ask mastercapper because he has a play on them...& he is an excellent capper..

good luck
 

djv

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Yes those weeks can hurt. I been stuck the last couple in that darn 50/50 junk. Looking for a 60/65% week to role into last part of season.
Best of G L this week.
 

AR182

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thanks guys....


adding.....

under 78 (120) tulsa / arkansas......

i am basically tailing a sharp capper on another site with this play....but i did some capping on my own.....

tulsa averages 55.6 ppg for the year.....but for the year on the road the offensive total is 46 ppg.....their defense is pretty consistent...they allow 26 ppg for the year & on the road....so the total that i come up with is.....81.6 total points for tulsa.

arkansa scores a total of 19.1 ppg for the year...but if you just look at what they score at home..the offensive total is 17.5 ppg.....on defense they allow 32 points per game for the year & at home they allow 33.5 ppg.....so the total that i come up with is.....51 total points for arkansas...

if i add both totals...i get 132.6 total points...now if i divide this figure by 2.....i get a total for this game to be.....66.3 for this game....so i have a cushion of about 11-12 points.....

i pay to get statistical info from a site...this is where i get most of the trends that i post....they take all of the stat info on the various teams & run it through their computers thousands of times....the average total that they came up with for this game is...67....again there is a cushion of 11 points....

finally it is pretty obvious to me that ark. does not want to try to trade points with tulsa because they will probably lose by a few tds...so i think ark. is going to try to shorten the game..by running the ball & snapping the ball with a few seconds on the play clock.....


good luck
 

AR182

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adding.....

texas tech +4 (120).......

i was caught short on this.....i was tempted in playing tt at 6 but was hoping it would go to 7...but instead it went the other way....

this is texas 4th straight game against an undefeated opponent & by beating okla, missouri, & ok st b2b2b is, imo one of the greatest feats in college football history....& because texas has played so many consecutive big games with no rest is one of the reasons why i am playing texas tech. now the texas defense has to chase one of the best offenses in the nation all over the home field of tex. tech, where tt has won 34 of its last 40 games.....i think this will be too much for texas.

here is an ap article about this game...

Texas is a deserving No.1 in the BCS rankings after defeating Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State - all ranked in the top 11 of the AP poll at the time - in the past three weeks. But Mack Brown is concerned his Longhorns (8-0, 4-0) may not have enough energy left when they travel to Lubbock Saturday to play high-scoring, sixth-ranked Texas Tech (8-0, 4-0) in the final game of this brutal four-game Big 12 gauntlet. "We're telling our guys to get in bed, get off your feet," Brown said. "We're trying our best to make sure they can handle this stretch physically and emotionally."

The powerful Longhorns started to show signs of fatigue during their 28-24 victory over Oklahoma State last Saturday in Austin. Junior quarterback Colt McCoy completed a school record 38 passes for 391 yards and two touchdowns, but he threw an interception and fumbled a ball away near the Cowboys' goal line in the fourth quarter of a close game. Turnovers such as those could be fatal in a shootout against the Raiders. McCoy also has a bruised non-throwing hand. Meanwhile, the Texas defense started to break down, missing 12 tackles against Oklahoma State as the Cowboys rushed for 217 yards. Texas Tech, which scored 63 points against Kansas last week, is averaging 48points per game and 556.9 yards of total offense. Senior quarterback Graham Harrell, who leads the country with 3,147 passing yards and is fifth with 28 touchdown passes, completed 34 of 42 passes for 386 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, leading the Red Raiders to 49 straight points after the first quarter ended with the teams tied at 14. "When we play like that, we're tough to beat," Harrell said. This is the biggest game of the year in West Texas, and tickets are going for as much as $1,250 on eBay. Texas and Texas Tech are the two remaining unbeaten teams in the dangerous Big 12 South. If the Longhorns win, they should have a clear path to the BCS Championship Game. If Tech wins, the Raiders still have division games left against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State but they will definitely be in the mix and Harrell could emerge as a front-runner, along with McCoy, for the Heisman Trophy.

Harrell should be salivating at the thought of playing against Texas' young, banged-up secondary that is giving up 266.6 yards passing and played without cornerback Chykie Brown, who missed the game with a sore ankle. Tech's passing offense is predicated on getting the ball to receivers such
as Michael Crabtree in space looking for one-on-one matchups.

some trends....

mike leach (tt coach) is 12-0 su at home when undefeated.

texas tech is 8-2 ats as single digit home dogs under leach.

texas tech is 12-1 ats in home games after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992.

home dogs that have scored 37 or more pts in consecutive games are 67-30 ATS since 1980.

texas is also just 5-12-1 ats under coach mack brown as a road favorite against a team with a winning record.....& 2-9 ats as a single digit conference road favorite.

unbeaten college football teams at 5-0 or better that are playing as road favorites of -20 or less pts are 37-67 ats since 1980 if they beat this same opponent last year.

undefeated road favorites from game 7 on are 12-31 ats against teams off b2b wins.


imo, getting points at home at night with an undefeated team that is playing like texas tech is too good to pass up.....looking forward to watching it.....& if texas wins this game they should give them the bcs trophy right there.


good luck
 

AR182

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adding...

minn.-6.5 (120)....

minn. is one of the surprise teams this year.....they are 7-1 su & 6-1 ats. and after allowing 518 yds. on defense last season, they allowing only 363 ypg this year & are #1 in the country in turnover margin (+15). last weeks win over purdue was minn.3rd straight big 10 win by more than 6 points. their qb, weber is hitting 67% of his passes & averaging 228 ypg with a 10/3 td/int ratio.

nw is entering this game pretty banged up....they will be missing their top player in running back sutton (776 rushing yards & 30 receptions for the season) for the season....& their qb (#91 in pass efficiency with a 10/11 ratio) got hurt late in last weeks game is questionable for this game.

minn. is 4-1 ats (lost last year) in their last 5 against nw.....& are 6-0 ats in their last 6 conference games.

nw is 5-13 ats in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.....& are 1-4 ats in their last 5 road games.


play against - road underdogs (nw) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

the ats record over the last 5 seasons is......27-5.......84.4%


minn. revenges last year's loss....


good luck
 

tulah

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I've been thinking about Minnesota as a play.After the write up I might throw a unit on it.

I got burned on the TT+6 too. I thought I could of got +7 so I waited . So much for that idea.

Best of luck
 

Toledo Prophet

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Good Luck this week AR!!!!

Lets cash some of those.

With Texas Tech, we have another one of those matchups with 5-0 or better teams. Love this system.

And, I've been on Minny quite a bit this fall....they have totally revamped their back 7 with JUCO players that are starring for Brewster's team. With Sutton out and the QB issues that NW has, I think Minny wins this win going away, with a great defensive effort.

Like Iowa also, Shonn Green is the Big 10 MVP in my book and I think he goes off tomorrow against a sub par Illini Defensive front.

Good Luck!!! :toast:
 

spang

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Love that Tulsa under myself, I'm jumping on that one with you. Think kent is solid as well but they are so inconsistant and their kicking game is horrible. GL this week
 

ThrowinPicks

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GL AR, Unfortunately I think Uconn has some revenge on their minds and has the talent to back it.
 

AR182

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thanks guys.....& bender my friend they are all hard to call....:142smilie


adding....

syracuse+14.....

syracuse is a home dog & is coming in off of a bye week , while louisville is playing only their 2nd road game of the year & may be over-confident after upsetting so. fla last week at home...syracuse has played a harder schedule of games than louey & has been competitive in games against pitt, w. virginia, & for 1/2 of the so. fla . game...& i expect them to be competitive in this game also.

home dogs of +15 or less that are off a bye are 173-104-4 ats (62.4%) since 1980 if they are playing a winning team off a home game.


play on - home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (syracuse) - in conference games, with an experienced qb returning as starter.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....68-28......70.8%


good luck
 

trolln4walii

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GL this week AR. Can't keep a good man down long :D This is the week you gather up all you left behind (along with me and several others) last week ;) With you on Fla and Minny. Glad to see you add Cuse to your plays. :mj06:
 

AR182

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thanks t4w...


adding....

la tech+5....

fresno is on its last leg due to the amount of travel its been through this season and it will certainly show up down in the south today. at the end of the 2008 regular season - this team will have traveled more miles than any team in the country outside of hawaii.

fresno barely survived at utah st last week - thanks to a 58-yard field goal, but i think today will be much tougher for fresno against la tech who hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.

in looking at the stats on this game, i noticed that latech holds a positive 1.75 ypc advantage over fresno & allows nearly 100 fewer rushing yards per game.

over the last 2 seasons fresno is 1-8 as a road favorite

fresno is 3-14 ats as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

fresno is 4-20-1 ats in their last 25 games as a favorite of 2 points or more following a point spread loss

under this present coach latech is 3-0 ats as a home dog.


good luck
 

AR182

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thanks hawk....

adding....

n.texas +17....

basically following a box with this play....but since i don't follow blindly i did some capping of my own....

n. tex. has played a tougher schedule than w. kentucky....wku is having some qb issues between 1 leaving the program & inconsistency with the others....as bad as nt is playing, they are still averaging about 20 ppg against fellow sun belt teams...they have a qb who is hitting 62% of his passes & they have a receiver who has 74 receptions on the year.

at the end of last year's game there was a team fight..so i think both teams will be ready for this game.....


good luck
 

AR182

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got back some of my losses from last week by going 11-3 for the week...which brings my record for the season to....92-63....

congrats to those who had a winning day/week...

boy do i love college football !!



good luck
 
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