Week 10 Card (Oct 28th - Nov 2nd)

[Irish]

Big Play
Notre Dame (-5.5) over Pitt
Pitt looked strong in it's win against Navy but looked out right horrid against Rutgers. Bill Stull was released from the hospital but I do not see him playing in this game. Without Stull there is a question at QB. This allows ND to be really aggressive and try to stop McCoy and get pressure. Mike Teel from rutgers was able to outright smack Pitt through the air throwing for 6 TD's. Now you have to understand that Teel's six TD's is something to really look at. Before that he had 7 picks compared to 3 TD's on the season while throwing for 56% completitions. Clausen has thrown for 15TD's already this season and should be much more of a threat at home and considering he is playing good football right now. The Irish have scored a touchdown on their opening possession in each of the past three games. ND's defense has been getting better and they should look to pull a lock on McCoy which will shut down the Pitt offense. Notre Dame is undefeated at home, with Pitt having QB issues, secondary issues they are going to be out matched. There is value at this line for me because even if Pitt keeps it close which I doubt I can see them not having enough to stay with ND through the air for the duration of the game and eventually the Irish defense will make enough plays to get ND on top. Pitt will struggle to generate pressure on Clausen as the ND o-line is playing a lot better lately and compared to last season sacks allowed are down almost 72%. This line has allowed ND to move from 30 plus rushing yards per game to 100 per game. This ability to run the ball better (but not great) make it easier for Clause to get the play fake and the numbers through the air make the box less crowded to run against. Pitt will have to pick it's poison and even though they will be a tough team defensively ND should wear them out.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Big Plays
Hawaii (-7.5) over Utah St
The warriors are playing pretty good football right now. Yes they got beat down by boise but they have been looking like a team that can put drives together they just are young and inexperienced. This is a big game for Hawaii as they are trying to get over the 500 hump. Yes Utah state gave Fresno a game but other than that wheat have they done all season? How about double digit loses in every game with the exception of Idaho. Hawaii needs to stop with the interceptions and they would be a very effective team. This squad continues to keep teams in games because of turnovers but considering the lack of playing time for the QB's in this system what do you expect. Even great Hawaii QB's were known for tossing to the other team. The loss to fresno did not just hurt the record of Utah St it hurt the mentality of the players. The coaches said they had not seen the heartbreak in his kids like this before. I think this game comes down to Hawaii playing good football and Utah St just demoralized and not in a place to get up for this game. Hawaii not the best road team should be able to preform well enough to get on top of Utah St and eliminate any fight the aggies may have. Eventually the offense of Hawaii will become too much as Hawaii's ever improving bend but do not fold defense makes some stops.

Oregon State (-13) over Arizona State
A week off to prepare, at home in a place where the beavers play extremely well against. Arizona State is just down right now. They were handled by Oregon in their own stadium and now going on the road they have to face a beavers team looking to move up the division. The offense is becoming ever more balanced, with the league's leading rusher in Quizz Rodgers (116 yards per game) and the top passer in yardage, Lyle Moevao. The defense gives up the occasional big play, and there seem to be issues with the nickel package, but it's generally solid. With the injury to Carpenter the Devils have no offense. ASU is a passing team with very little running ability. Carpenter helped win in that system because he was playing well, then his line lost a few players and he has been underpressure all season. Teams are getting to the QB and very quick because ASU shows no threat of a running game. This game screams a little revenge considering ASU won last years meeting and this was the coach that brought Org St back from the dead a few years ago. I am hoping Carpenter still can go because it was extremely enjoyable to watch him try to win the game and in the end cost his team. Sullivan completed the ball about 58% of the time for 80 yards. So really this comes down to Erickson making a huge call at his most important position. Does he give CArpenter the ball, who is clearly not healthy and has no confidence in his team. Or does he give it to Sullivan and hope that he can do something behind that line that cannot get out of its own way. Either way you slice it I think the answe lies in the Oregon state defenseive front. This unit is playing well and they should look to get all over the QB and not allow routes to develope. The OSU secondary is hit or miss but they have a lot of game experience and if they play well they make up a very good group. This game comes down to the home field advantage the time off and OSU having the edge in the trenches. Hard sledding for ASU who after the loss to UNLV has just lost it's ability to effectively run the offense. Considering they need offense to stay in games because the defense will not shut people down, losing the offense puts them in deep trouble in Corvalis.

South Carolina (-6) over Tennessee
Normally 6 points in an SEC game is a nice cushon to take but I just think the Vols are in shambles right now. They are coming off the bama beating and honestly do those kids even care anymore, does that coach have any pull with them and what is their reason to show up and play SC. The vols are 3-5, one of those loses came against UCLA with the third string in and a tuba player from the band playing guard. Now on the other hand the gamecocks are 5-3 and a victory could help them get closer to a bowl. Tought to sit out a week after the come from behind loss to LSU but it should give Garcia just a little more time in the spurrir system and he is their best option at QB. These QB's are the worst at not throwing picks but at least Garcia offers the ability to scramble and should be a tough player for Tenn to contain. Considering SC is 60 yards rushing and 2.1 yards per carry against SEC opponents. They need a scrambling QB or they will never move the chains. The Gamecocks rank sixth nationally in total defense (256 yards per game) after getting burned by LSU and they give up 16.1 points per game. I do not think Tennessee gets even close to that number. Tennessee has lost all their away games and they should not have enough in the tank to play at the emotional level that will be needed against SC at home. Tennessee's defense is not good enough to stop the pass and spuirrir will have to air it out, I just hope the QB keeps the ball going to his players. Avoid Berry in the secondary and you should be fine. The LB's for SC should be all over the running game and QB for Tenn. Succup needs to be on, all drives in Tenn teritory needs to end in points and he could prove to be a valuable player in that department.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

always enjoy your write-ups buddy...gl this week

 

[Woodson]

Irish... you get a haircut or something... ? You look different?


Always enjoy the write ups!

GL2U!

B

 

[AR182]

irish..

am against you on the hawaii game & maybe the nd game...good luck otherwise..

 

[tulah]

N.D is a play for me also. :mj06: :toast:

As alway's GL Irish:toast:

 

[Irish]

Buffalo (+2) over Ohio W
Buffalo is plus five in turnover margin this season. This is a good thing considering Boo Jackson has tossed 8 picks this season in what would be considered a running team. The Bulls are scoring 27 points per game. Watching the Temple game you have to think if the Owls could get a little more touch on some deep passes they would have won that game by a few TD's. The Owls had guys free down field all game and if DiMichele didn't miss a few games he would have been a little sharper and it would have been bad for the bobcats. This is a big edge because I think Drew Willy should have a very big game and be able to take advantage of the ohio defense through the air. The temple comeback was the third time this season Ohio lost after leading after three quarters, and the fourth time the Bobcats couldn't hold a halftime lead. The players have to feel a little down right now after letting that game slip away. While four of Buffalo?s last five games including the last three have been decided on the final play. But the Buffalo's have won 2 out of those 4 so they have fasith that they can win close games. Buffalo won last season's meeting by a 31-10 margin in UB Stadium. The Bobcats have only eight sacks on the season and rank 101st in the nation. I point this out because a glaring weakness for Buffalo is the offensive line, which was dominated by Army. Considering the Ohio lack of a pass rush the Buff might be able to even out their weakest point, the extra days to prepare should also help them work out some offensive line kinks. This is going to be a fun game to watch, not saying it will be an enjoyable game but it will be fun. Both teams have a lot to play for, both teams play to the other weakness. Ohio has a nice home field advantage but IMO buffalo is the better team (slightly). It should be a game that is close all game because both teams battle so I think the points might come into play but I like the Bulls to win this game outright using the pass while getting a few turnovers on defense.

Woodson - :mj07: , new shoes.

AR - don't you think Utah was so emotionally invested against Fresno that 58 FG takes its toll on them this week?

Tulah - oh Danny Boy the pipes the pipes are calling.

Thanks Toy!

Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

GL this week Irish !!! :toast:
Thanks for the all the GREAT Write ups !!!
Might be going against you on Buffalo !!! :scared

 

[Irish]

BIG PLAY
Houston (-8) over Marshall L
For the second straight season, the Cougars meet Marshall on the gridiron. A year ago, the Cougars enjoyed a 30-21 win over the Thundering Herd on John O'Quinn Field at Robertson Stadium. Thundering Herd has posted an impressive home record of 114-15 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. The Cougars rank third in the nation in total offense with 544.29 yards per game and the nation's #2 passing offense with 403.29 yards per game. Keenum leads the nation in total offense at 407.9 yards per game and ranks second in passing (384.4) and tied for fourth in touchdown passes (23) with Texas Tech's Graham Harrell. Keenum has thrown at least one TD in 10 straight games. What I really like about this is a lot of the play houston runs are designed to get players into space, they are not all deep balls. Houston gets it to the WR and allows them to make moves and get yards after catch. This is big because Marshall just could not tackle AT ALL against UAB. They were made to look foolish all night trying to wrap up and allowing guys to run through and around the defense. Opponents have averaged 28.6 points and 399.0 yards per game against the Cougars. Houston has 15 takeaways and 14 sacks (Phillip Hunt who leads the nation in sacks per game with 1.43) in seven games and has the conference's No. 2 red-zone defense at 77.8 percent (21-of-27). Now the houston defense is playing well while Marshall is playing badly at QB. During the three-game losing streak, he has thrown five interceptions and completed just 49 percent of his passes for an average of 178.0 yards per game. So right now this kid has almost no confidence and thats a bad thing considering his best weapons are Slate and Passmore and its up to him to get them the ball. Now the Marshall offense is just not moving the ball well. Marshall ranks 11th in C-USA in scoring (19.1), passing (204.9) and total offense (332.7) and ninth in rushing (127.9). They are league-worst 13-for-20 inside the red zone. This is going to come down to Houston moving the ball and scoring poinrs while Marshall not being able to keep up and eventually just make enough mistakes for the game to move outside the comeback range. This is the last game outside the Houston area for the Cougars. Expect them to come in and play hard because of how hard they had to battle SMU when they came in unfocused. Bad news is Marshall just cannot stay step for step with Houston passing the ball. Only thing that makes houston struggle is lack of focus on their own sideline.

Thanks rubiconed, good luck on the bobcats if thats your play.

Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

Love the Houston play, and played it early @ -7.5, and bought a pt., to keep it under a touchdown !!!

Let's nail this one !!! :toast:

Haven't played Ohio yet, but if I do, I'll play it on the ML !!!

 

[AR182]

irish...

do you know why the pitt qb was in the hospital ?

 

[Irish]

AR....
He got hit by his own teammate and "down goes fraiser". They were very concerned because of the hit and the snapback, he was motionless for awhile then carted off. I cannot see any chance of him playing Saturday.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Freddog5]

Irish,
Love the Houston play and glad to see you on the same side with a powerful write up.
Also like the ND play.
Good luck to us tonight and best of luck for the week!
-FD

 

[Irish]

South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy L - I smell some Bull alright
OK the bulls have bitten me in the arse too many times this season. The Bulls fell to Pitt by five points and Louisville by four points. WHERE O WHERE is this defense when it comes to crunch time. The next few games are all crunch time. Bulls to keep alive their long-shot Big East title hopes, they must win out starting tonight at Nippert Stadium, where they lost their only trips in 2004 (45-23) and 2006 (23-6). A loss tonight knocks the Bulls out of the Top 25 and officially puts this season in free fall. It looks like Mike Ford might be a no go but considering he averages only 40 of the 171.2 yards per game, he will be missed if he can't go but it won't stop the bulls rushing attack. With one runner down you need to get a little more out of Grothe. Grothe leads the league with 237 passing yards per game and 14 touchdowns with only five interceptions. He has not taken over a game yet this season and just put the Bulls in the driver seat. The o-line is not giving him enough time and he is normally under pressure so he cannot be a difference maker. He needs to be a difference maker is the Bulls are looking at the bigeast championship. He needs to stop putting it in the defenses hands to stop these last drives. The defense needs to step up and get some stops. Tonight they need to shutdown the rushing attack. The Bearcats ran 19 times for 30 yards against UConn. UConns ability to for Pike with a broken arm to beat them was smart. Considering Pike had to get replaced the passing game was just uneffective against the UConn secondary. The Bulls must stop the run. USF leads the Big East in pass defense, allowing 186.8 yards per game. Again if I was the Bulls coach it is time to call out the defensive front. There is no reason these linemen are not getting more pressure. They are rushing just to get depth NOT to blow plays up, they need to get to the ball not just into the backfield. In the past two games the bearcats are 0-for-25 in third down conversions!! This game is huge, SF needs to win and so does Cincy. I think Cincy has a big question at QB and bringing Pike back early hurt them because another week of rest might had him ready to go this week. Instead I think he is less than 60% and that arm could really become an issue in the cold after a few hits. The bulls defense, everything rests on the bulls defense. USF leads the Big East in scoring offense and total offense. They need to get the offense rolling and have the defense follow suit and put together a total game because Cincy at home is no easy task. These teams have a lot of talent and speed and both match up well against each other:
UC Category (per game) USF
258.0 Pass offense 254.5
126.0 Run offense 171.2
384.0 Total offense 425.8
27.1 Points 33.5
228.1 Pass defense 186.8
102.9 Run defense 81.5
331.0 Total defense 268.2
22.0 Points allowed 18.4
Still I think the QB situation at Cincy is a big issue. I think even with the injury, they have played well enough to beat some of the easier teams on the sched like rutgers, marshall, akron, miami (oh) but really are those teams to measure yopurselves against. The biggest challenge of the season was 40-16 loss to one dimmensional (Brown will run the ball) UConn. Losing the QB will prove to be a huge problem over the next few weeks with SF, WVU, L'ville and Pitt all coming up. This is not the same team that held its own against Oklahoma for a few quarters. This is a team that will struggle with speed. The progression is what you should look at... Rutgers is an ok defense at best and they held Cincy, UConn a little better and they held Cincy, the Bulls should hold Cincy at bay long enough to put it away with the offense and not let it comedown to a fourth quarter defensive stand.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Michigan State (-5) over Wisky
Wisconsin held Illinois to just 88 yards on the ground, but is surrendering 133.3 rushing yards per game. On the other side Wisconsin running game that averages 190.3 yards. So you are looking at two teams that are going to the ground in order to be successful. This is going to be news for Badger backers because I do not think Hill is to a point where he can run effectively considering he had about 10 yards against Ill. Wisky has lost 2 of 3 on the road, those include Michigan and Iowa. Sherer played extremely well in his last game but how will he fair against a Mich St defense on the road? The last time he was on the road he was at Iowa and he threw 2 picks. Even in the good game against Ill he still was only 54% so he is not captain reliable back there and now the best weapon Wisky has in the passing game is out (Beckum). Now I am not saying he is the most explosive, but he is the most reliable and this hurts a green QB to lose such a weapon. I think Wisky is too banged up. I like the home field advantage for the spartans. The defense and QB play better at home and if you add those two aspects in with Ringer the spartans becaome a tough out.

Kansas (-11.5) over Kansas State
KU embarassed last week, not only taken behind the woodshed but at home on homecoming. Being just humiliated is tough on a team so you have to think they come out at home this week and look to lay the wood on a KSt defense that 441.6-yard allowance is the worst in the Big 12 and ranks 109th nationally. Now what scares me is Wildcats outgained the Sooners, 550-528, for the game. Now for those of you that watched Kasnsas TT, the jayhawks could not stop the texas tech offense and they just couldn't keep up. What I like is even with all those yards the KSt wildcats didn't walk away with a lot of points. So the like Kansas can move the ball but this game comes down to the redzone and that is where I like Kansas. Sould be a good game offensively, but I like the home field advantage and the ability for Kansas to cash drives in for points during this game unlike last week. This is a rivalry game, both teams will play hard.. worried about this amount of chalk but I think KState is just a weaker team. They have played tough teams but like kansas they have gotten whooped the difference is Kansas has held its own against poor teams and KSt got beat by them.

Air Force (-10) over Army
Army has ZERO quit, they believe in themselves and they are at home but this is a service acadamy game so you know both teams will come to play and in that case I like Air Force to dominate Army. Air Force and Army meet for the 43rd time overall. The Falcons lead the series, 28-13-1. Air Force is 17-3 at home, 10-9 at Army and 1-1-1 in neutral site games. The Falcons hold a 25-11 record vs. Army in Commander-in-Chief's Trophy games dating back to 1972. Air Force is 16-2 at home and 9-9 at Army.Air Force beat Army, 30-10, last season at USAFA. The Falcons defeated Army, 43-7, the last time the two played in Michie Stadium. Army's last win in the series came in 2005 at USAFA, 27-24, and snapped an eight-game Air Force winning streak. What this says to me is even if AF is the better team when they go to Army they struggle. That was against bad army teams so you have to be worried giving this amount of chalk to a no quit army team at home with the thought they can win. BUT NOT SO FAST... Air Force defeated Army, 43-7, in a nationally televised game on ESPN2's Friday Night Football last year. Army is playing better than years past but Air Force is a good team, well coached and has a good young QB Jefferson that can control this offense. The offense puts up too many points for Army to stay with. Big concern for a back door because Army never shuts it down, they fight and play with pride.

Navy (-7.5) over Temple
DiMichele with another week under his belt should be sharper but Temple showed in the past two weeks against bad teams they are poor to average at best. Navy beat SMU by 30 and I am not sure they completed or even tried a pass. Now they host a Temple defense that is not the greatest against the run on SENIOR DAY. Now in most places I don't think senior day has a lot of weight but I do in the naval acadamy. These leaders are respected and the teams are like family so they want to send these guys out with a win on their day. Temple is ranked 110th nationally in rushing offense (98.3), 104th in passing offense (152.9), 118th in total offense (251.1) and 115th in scoring offense (16.8). The Owls are ranked 67th nationally in rush defense (142.6), 64th in pass defense (209.0), 61st in total defense (351.6) and 25th in scoring defense (18.1). This is a game where Navy has a ton to play for at home against a team that is overrated at best because the numbers show they are not good offensively to stay with this option team.

Mizzou (-20) over Baylor
Scared of this game because I think Baylor at home is a tough out especially with Griffin at QB but Mizzou got a little bit of swagger back last week and they have to win and win by a lot to impress voters as the season starts to wrap up. Baylor has an offense to score points but I do not believe they have enough defense to keep this game close. I think this comes down to Mizzou on a mission playing a Baylor team that is improving but not at the level to stay punch for punch. 20 is a ton of chalk but this game could easily be one where Mizzou puts on a show and then regardless of how effective baylor is they never get it close. Mizzou has won the last 6 games and the last five games by margins of 18 points (42-24 in 1997), 25 (47-22 in 2000), 17 (41-24 in 2001), 20 (30-10 in 2004) and 15 (31-16 in 2005). Since Mizzou has lost a few games I think they take this game a little more serious in years past and they add a little more on the scoreboard than what they have showed in the series. They have always look comfortable in the games but they put a little more importance on this game and they should put them away offensively and let the defense end the game as Baylor has to throw to keep up and turnovers turn to more points.


Cheers
Irish

 

[DeadPrez]

good luck irish

 

[Blackman]

Like your whole card. Only thing keeping me off of Army is the backdoor cover, this team doesn't stop and won't get blown out, but AF should have their way offensively. Probably will pull the trigger on Navy though, that's a solid mismatch.

Best of luck bud.

 

[trolln4walii]

GL this week Irish. With you tonight on SFla and ND and MSU tomorrow. Even better.... not opposite you on any plays. Let's have a good one :mj06:

 

[Irish]

Not the way I wanted to start the week....

Florida State (-1.5) over Georgia Tech
Now FSU is getting two points I took them again on the ML. This is a big test for the Navy offense run at georgia tech. Big issue is GT moving all american safety to CB for the remainder of the season. I think this is great because it takes a playmaker out of the flow of the entire defense and limits him to a sideline. The GT defense is fast but FSU has played solid fast defenses and the running game has been moving the chains and now they have found a solid answer at the QB position to hit on some key throws as well as scramble for big plays when his team needs them. I like the match-up of the FSU defense against the option offense. This is a good defensive unit and are quick to react to the ball. Gap assignments will be key but you know they have been practicing against it all week. In fact Thursday was the final chance for the Seminole defense to work against Paul Johnson's ground attack and the team spent 15 periods in shorts working on the final plans to not only face the Yellow Jacket offense but one of the nation's best defenses as well. I think FSU is ready for this game as they have gotten better all season and climbed their way into the top 25. GT offense is a bit overrated against good teams but they should be able to move the ball. The key against this GT offense is Rolle. He is a VERY good safety and he is quick to the ball, bringing him into the run will help blow up plays. FSU has the CB to stay close to one on one coverage allowing the LB's and Rolle to get into the option which will be a big difference.

Tulsa (-7) over Arkansas
This just comes down to Tusla is too good on offense and Arkansas is not a very good team this year. I am a little scared on how Tulsa will handle the size and power of arkansas but they should be able to hit quick hitters on them all afternoon. Tulsa brings a new wrinkle to the field that Arkansas has not played against this season and that is a no huddle offense which forces the defense to make quick decisions both during and between plays. This will be a big advantage against a team that really does not communicate well on the field and often gets burned out in series on defense. Tulsa has a good enough defense to make some stops against the hogs who will look to overpower them. Tulsa needs to run their offense and they will be moving too fast for Arkansas. I am not saying they are faster, b ut the tempo will be tough for Arkansas to stay with play in and out. Look for confussion and fatigue to cost the hogs a few blow coverages and tusla will take advantage.

Oklahoma (-22) over Nebraska
At home against a rival that is playing better right now but has been something awful against good teams. On average Oklahoma at home wins by around 20 plus points this season. The offense averages over 48 points, the lowest total this season was 35 to TCU in a game they won by 25. The best WR for Nebraska (IMO) Holt is out for this game so they lose one of those deep weapons which should hurt them in the passing game if this is a game of keep up. Against Mizzou they were man handled on defense and I am looking at that game as a key. I know against Texas Tech this team looked like they were a contender but that game is a little misleading. Nebraska grinded TT down all game, Nebraskas Possession Time 40:12 compared to TT 19:48 now in just under 20 mins Texas Tech scored 37 points! In the secon and third quarters the cornhuskers had the ball for over 10 mins each YET MANAGED 10 POINTS COMBINED! This game comes down to Oklahoma not looking past them in a rivalry game and they are too strong offensively to allow Nebraska to keep it a game. A ton of chalk but a game a one loss Oklahoma team wants to make a statement. I do not think Oklahoma will allow Nebraska to pick them apart like Texas did and in that case Bradford and the sonners WR put up too many for Nebraska to play the 5 yard out game they are into right now. Look at some film of nebraska and it is gross, they hit the bootleg option and 5-7 yard outs all game. They just sustain drives and eat clock till they make a mistake or get to the redzone and teams coverage gets tighter and then they fall apart.

small play
Bama (-23.5) over Ark St
Homecoming, number 2 team in the nation trying to impress the home town fans. They should just be too much for the indians. I mean the only thing working for Ark St is that Bama should care less about this game. A big look ahead game to LSU, no reason to play puts this as a DANGER play but I think Bama has far to much up side to have this become a game on homecoming.

Texas Tech (+6) over Texas
I might middle this if it gets lower before the kick just because I have seen Tech have problems in big games in the past. I like what the red raiders did against Kansas so I think they are ready to play in good games but they still might let the jitters hurt them. Texas IMO just can't keep this pace up. I mean they have been outstanding and if they continue to play this well then they should be given the national championship because they have beaten pretty much the entire top 5 at some point in the season. A huge concern for me backing Texas Tech is the DR. Pepper halftime fieldgoal challange kicker they now have. He played well last week but they never had him boot a FG and it was a run away so he really never faced any pressure. This might be a different situation and I wonder if he hold up. Texas has allowed 13 sacks this season, an average of fewer than two per game. So you have to think Colt will have some time to make plays unlike Reesing last week. Tech ranks tied for third in the Big 12 Conference and tied for 25th in the nation in sacks per game. What scares me and a reason I might middle is that 4 of 5 CBS "experts" are predicting an outright win for TT. I am sorry but I would think if experts are predicting TT to win this game why did the line open up at over 7? The public drives the line in most cases but when lines come out it normally give you an idea of what the oddmakers think. This will be a good game and I had to take the 6 when I saw it, but as the week goes on if this game drops to -2 I would see tremendous value in a big play on Texas because I see them as too tough offensively and defensively to lose this game but like the Okie State game the raiders passing attack can keep them in it.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Woodson]

We have a lot of the same this week. Here's to more Ws and fewer Ls this week!

:toast: