Trading: Week of January 12, 2009

[dawgball]

Here is where the tracking error always seems odd to me on DXO. Oil is down nearly 8%, but DXO is only down 5.4%.

I have noticed that when there is a larger move like this, the correction is made on DXO after-market.

I will keep an eye on this tomorrow to see if it opens much lower to better reflect today's drop. I guess this could be nullified if there is any news on oil that drives it up post-market.

Currently, I have re-buy orders starting at 2.50.

 

[vinnie]

I got 2000 @ 2.75

 

[smurphy]

Here is where the tracking error always seems odd to me on DXO. Oil is down nearly 8%, but DXO is only down 5.4%.

I have noticed that when there is a larger move like this, the correction is made on DXO after-market.

I will keep an eye on this tomorrow to see if it opens much lower to better reflect today's drop. I guess this could be nullified if there is any news on oil that drives it up post-market.

Currently, I have re-buy orders starting at 2.50.

have noticed the exact same thing. The drops the last week in oil havenot been reflected in DXO's price. When oil was at this price last time, DXO was more like $2 rather than the $2.80 it is now. This must be simply because more people are investing in DXO and have long term confidence in the price of oil.

 

[MadJack]

i don't know the details but DXO is based on oil contracts from 6 months ago. i do not remember where i read that.

 

[dawgball]

i don't know the details but DXO is based on oil contracts from 6 months ago. i do not remember where i read that.

I thought it was 6 months out. From what I've read, they adjust their holdings daily to make sure they can't go bankrupt unless there is a 50% drop in one day.

 

[MadJack]

I thought it was 6 months out. From what I've read, they adjust their holdings daily to make sure they can't go bankrupt unless there is a 50% drop in one day.

maybe i read it wrong :shrug:
i didnt pay that much attention to it since i read it after i sold.

 

[MadJack]

i believe you are correct, jason. based on July futures now.

http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_psf.aspx

 

[vinnie]

It's leveraged bet on oil futures

 

[dawgball]

Here is where the tracking error always seems odd to me on DXO. Oil is down nearly 8%, but DXO is only down 5.4%.

I have noticed that when there is a larger move like this, the correction is made on DXO after-market.

I will keep an eye on this tomorrow to see if it opens much lower to better reflect today's drop. I guess this could be nullified if there is any news on oil that drives it up post-market.

This one goes down the pooper like all of my other theories...

 

[smurphy]

It will be interesting to see what DXO does when oil has another up day. Today oil is down, but DXO is actually up. I think there are a lot more buyers than sellers of the stock.

 

[vinnie]

It will be interesting to see what DXO does when oil has another up day. Today oil is down, but DXO is actually up. I think there are a lot more buyers than sellers of the stock.

gas prices are on the rise too even with oil sinking :shrug:

 

[dawgball]

It will be interesting to see what DXO does when oil has another up day. Today oil is down, but DXO is actually up. I think there are a lot more buyers than sellers of the stock.

I have read that this should not effect the price of DXO greatly due to the way they adjust after market. They use the new cash to buy more future contracts, so it auto-adjust the price. BUT this almost has to contribute to some degree to the tracking error.

I have never pulled harder for a position that I own to go down! Weird!

 

[vinnie]

.

I have never pulled harder for a position that I own to go down! Weird!

@ what price u going to sell what u have now :shrug:

 

[dawgball]

@ what price u going to sell what u have now :shrug:

i'm looking at a bracket of prices. at 2.50 i will start buying lots at .25 increments down.

I will start selling lots at 3.25 and continue at 0.25 increments up.

My lots on the way down will be larger. Probably big enough to get all cash in play at 2.00 (this may be 2.25 if I feel it is time to commit for long term).

I would say at 4.25 - 4.50ish I would be fully out waiting for the next time to hit 3.00 again.

I haven't though it out clearly in the last couple of days, but this is roughly close.

 

[smurphy]

i'm looking at a bracket of prices. at 2.50 i will start buying lots at .25 increments down.

I will start selling lots at 3.25 and continue at 0.25 increments up.

My lots on the way down will be larger. Probably big enough to get all cash in play at 2.00 (this may be 2.25 if I feel it is time to commit for long term).

I would say at 4.25 - 4.50ish I would be fully out waiting for the next time to hit 3.00 again.

I haven't though it out clearly in the last couple of days, but this is roughly close.

I'm wondering if DXO will see 2.50 again. According to barrel price, it should be below 2.50 now. But there's more resistance to the stock price dropping for some reasom. Perhaps there's more of a sense of stability in oil prices now as opposed to a few weeks ago?:shrug:

Wish I held on to my purchase at 2.05, but I'm taking profits whenever they happen. ...and trying not to kick myself.

 

[smurphy]

BAC hitting incredible lows. They will survive all this garbage. I think I'm a buyer.

 

[dawgball]

BAC hitting incredible lows. They will survive all this garbage. I think I'm a buyer.

My "guess" is that $15 is much more likely than $5.

 

[dawgball]

I'm also considering going halfsies on my account now.

half = DXO
half = SSO

 

[vinnie]

I'm also considering going halfsies on my account now.

half = DXO
half = SSO

I like ur DXO above plan better :shrug:

 

[GENO]

Anybody making any $$$ today or this week?

I bought 200 shares of CNP for the Dividend yield, then it promply went down about as much as the dividend is. :mj07:

Should come back I think, looks like a solid company and people will still pay the electric & Nat Gas bills.