NBA SUN 032209 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

Ok crew...We've got a 1PM game for Sunday

Miami at Detroit

The number isn't out yet for this but let me give you one piece of advice on this one. PASS. Don't force this play from the total's perspective. Yes, we'd like to get our day started early with a 1PM game but just trust me on this one. Don't get baited with whatever number the books throw at you here. There'll be others to choose from.

Feel free to cap the side since there's a good possibility value may appear but walk away from the O/U action on this one.

 

[JCWhy]

Here are the games I am looking at:
Thunder/Wolves - I like this Under the best
Clippers/Raptors - Slight lean toward the Under
Cavs/Nets - Lean to the Over

 

[PickNPop]

Tough luck on the MEM moose for us, eh Ax?

For tmr, doesn't GS/NO seem very similar to today's matchup of NY/ORL??? Great defensive teams at home against a fast paced opponent. Difference is Nawlins is much more disciplined in terms of their offense and will impose their pace. Coupled with the fact that they lost earlier at home to them should provide an even greater incentive for revenge. Chandler and Peja both have a good chance of being back, which is good and bad. Good = Chandler will protect the rim. Bad = Peja guarding anyone on GS.

Lemme know what you think!

 

[axp59]

I have some good news and I have some bad news.

The good news...There is a good possibility you will not lose any money on the NBA Sunday.

The bad news...There are no plays I like on Sunday.

 

[PickNPop]

Wow, I just noticed that the spread and total are nearly IDENTICAL to their previous meeting in NO. Is this good or bad?

 

[proguy747]

spurs rockets 177
gsw 215
cavs nets 190
76rs kings 208
clips raptors 209
minn okc 199

 

[proguy747]

looks like vegas did a good job.

 

[axp59]

With that said...we have ourselves a 'gambling day' Gents and the few ladies out there.

Miami at Detroit is back in the picture depending where they drop the number.

Leans...with very most minimum value (gamble)

Cleveland at New Jersey O190
Golden State at New Orleans U215

I'm sorry guys, I cannot force these plays. Let's get the discussions going and maybe we get lucky if we even call a POD. Sides are open for discussion.

 

[proguy747]

will wait for lines to fully come in for sides.

 

[jlippens]

I think the Wolves/Thunder OVER is worth some investigation. This number seems low on first glance. Two terrible teams: OVER

 

[JCWhy]

My number and the trends for the Thunder/Wolves are giving me mixed signals. Number = Under and Trends = Over. I must do more digging as I really like this number for some reason :shrug:

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

Heat w/ the points either as a dog or fave?

:00x32

Not really feeling the sched like yourself, to be frank; maybe just end up :0corn ... and making mental calculations/taking notes for future games down the road.

 

[axp59]

Here are the games I am looking at:
Thunder/Wolves - I like this Under the best
Clippers/Raptors - Slight lean toward the Under
Cavs/Nets - Lean to the Over

yes JCW...good eye

sorry JCW, i edited this to take the first one off. I was mistaken about my feelings on the OKC/MIN game

 

[axp59]

Tough luck on the MEM moose for us, eh Ax?

For tmr, doesn't GS/NO seem very similar to today's matchup of NY/ORL??? Great defensive teams at home against a fast paced opponent. Difference is Nawlins is much more disciplined in terms of their offense and will impose their pace. Coupled with the fact that they lost earlier at home to them should provide an even greater incentive for revenge. Chandler and Peja both have a good chance of being back, which is good and bad. Good = Chandler will protect the rim. Bad = Peja guarding anyone on GS.

Lemme know what you think!

yeah PnP, damn scrubs. I'm pissed and looking to get my money back. Yes, I feel that's my money the book's holding

If I had to pick a POD, you are correct ...I like this the best. There are some things I'm looking for and aren't seeing but beggars can't be choosers. You know I'd jump all over a number if I thought it had value. Sunday's card is just awful.

 

[axp59]

Wow, I just noticed that the spread and total are nearly IDENTICAL to their previous meeting in NO. Is this good or bad?

We can learn much from this. We need a guy like ETZ to break down the last game and point out the differences in this upcoming one. I will look at the numbers side. I'd love to hear what everyone else thinks because calling a POD tomorrow is going to be a group effort IMHO.

 

[axp59]

looks like vegas did a good job.

You aint lying brother...too good!!

 

[axp59]

I think the Wolves/Thunder OVER is worth some investigation. This number seems low on first glance. Two terrible teams: OVER

Jlipp,
first, welcome and glad you can finally join us!!

I understand what you are saying. what troubles me is how these teams have been playing lately. I'll check out who they've been matched up against but the offensive production just isn't there while their defenses have actually started to tighten up a bit. In the past 2 weeks or so, the league has been scoring more than the previous 2 weeks. These team are getting left behind as they're both scoring about 7 less each from the league average. In the mean time, both defenses are allowing below the league average. Just my thoughts.

Again, happy to see you on this thread!

 

[jlippens]

My number and the trends for the Thunder/Wolves are giving me mixed signals. Number = Under and Trends = Over. I must do more digging as I really like this number for some reason :shrug:

The "number" (I'm guessing you're looking at average point totals/allowed?) might be telling you UNDER, but the reason trends are probably telling you over is because bad teams love playing each other. They can both play the ball they like (that is, without defence) and hell, they actually have a chance of still winning the game anyway.

The main difference between good and bad teams has less to do with talent than you'd believe. It has to do with a dedication to playing defence. Bad teams, in a word, don't.

Bad teams once they're out of the playoff race are even worse, in terms of commitment to defence. These are individual players now with nothing more to play for than to pad their ndividual stats sheet.

The final nail in this coffin is Kevin Durant. As Chump said in response to my charge that the Thunder are 100 times better on defence without him (but only 10 times better overall without him!), he agreed, calling Durant a "poppinjay". See, that is why I love Chump being a granddad! I mean, who the hell says that? That is awesome. But the point remains. He's a streetballer who loves nothing more than scoring 35 a night and never even bothering to try defending.

The reason the number is this low (I believe) is because Minnesota totals have consistently been going under recently (3-7 L10). However, upon investigation, those unders were generated against elite level teams, or offensive teams where the number was 219+ (New York--which isn't the high flying team it has been all season, and GSW, where the number was 226.

I really think 199 is a steal. This number seems likely to rise.

 

[easterntimezone]

We can learn much from this. We need a guy like ETZ to break down the last game and point out the differences in this upcoming one. I will look at the numbers side. I'd love to hear what everyone else thinks because calling a POD tomorrow is going to be a group effort IMHO.

Ax -

I don't think I watched this game if @ all b/c I likely didn't have a play on it; couldn't even remember if was @ home or away for New Orleans until I looked it up...

I will say that what likely persuaded me from viewing was I find New Orleans plays a pretty mundane brand of basketball that's OVERdependent on Paul (see Portland game for complete collapse by the Hornets after his pulled groin) and the Warriors' COMPLETE aversion to defense.

 

[axp59]

Ax -

Heat w/ the points either as a dog or fave?

:00x32

Not really feeling the sched like yourself, to be frank; maybe just end up :0corn ... and making mental calculations/taking notes for future games down the road.

I see heat getting 3 or 4 here. This is a fine line depending where the books want the money to come in. DET -3 is begging for DET $$$ but MIA +4 is another story. Just my 2 cents.

Hate the card!